Source: Forum Dialogu
M. Pendzivol interviews Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: You are the deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Is it a Belarusian government-in-exile?
Pavel Latushka: We have established institutions in exile that represent Belarusian society within the country and the diaspora. We have a president who legitimately won the 2020 election—a fact widely recognized—although Svetlana Tikhanovskaya was prevented from assuming her rightful position. Lukashenko forcibly clung to power, blocking her from taking office. During the Congress of Democratic Forces in August 2022, we formed the United Transitional Cabinet as an executive body—in essence, a government-in-exile. We also have a Coordination Council, and we are preparing to hold its inaugural elections.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Is the Council equivalent to a parliament?
Pavel Latushka: It's a proto-parliament. We are also in the process of creating a second chamber, which will include representatives from non-partisan, non-governmental organizations.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Are we talking about a body akin to a Senate?
Pavel Latushka: Not quite. It's more accurately described as an advisory body, a platform for civil society and NGOs that have been banned within Belarus. Over 1,500 NGOs have already been dissolved by the authorities, and another 900 are facing liquidation. Their representatives were forced to flee Belarus, and some have since resumed their activities from abroad.
This is how we've been able to establish these Belarusian state institutions in exile. We do face some opposition from those who disagree with our actions and question the legitimacy of creating such bodies. But as a politician, I understand that institutions are fundamental to a system's longevity. This is crucial because we must safeguard the interests of Belarusians both abroad and within the country, ensuring they have representation on the international stage. This also has significant implications for the fight against the regime.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: How many Belarusian citizens with voting rights are currently living abroad?
Pavel Latushka: According to the latest data from Poland's Deputy Minister for Family and Social Policy, over 310,000 Belarusians reside in Poland. Lithuania has the second largest Belarusian population, with 67,000. Last May, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe reported that half a million Belarusians had fled the country. Based on various sources and our own estimates, we believe the actual number of Belarusians living outside Belarus could be as high as 1.5 million. In 2020, Belarus had a population of over 9 million. Now, according to a report commissioned by Lukashenko himself, that number has dwindled to 7.8 million.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: So, if I'm following you correctly, you're talking about the total number of Belarusians living abroad, not specifically those eligible to vote in elections?
Pavel Latushka: That's right. I don't have the precise figures on how many Belarusians living abroad currently hold voting rights.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: It's been nearly four years since those rigged presidential elections orchestrated by Lukashenko. What are your thoughts on the West's response to those events?
Pavel Latushka: Frankly, it's been slow and sluggish. Dictators like Lukashenko need much less time to make decisions, especially when it comes to repression. Democracies, on the other hand, rely on consultation and consensus-building, which takes time. There are 27 member states in the EU, decisions simply don't happen overnight. We’ve lost a lot of time due to tjis delay.
The core issue is that only one country has a clear strategy for Belarus — it’s Russia. And that strategy boils down to absorbing Belarus into the Russian Empire.
Russia's playbook is evident: they're using military force to try to annex Ukraine, while with Belarus, it's a campaign of non-military coercion. That's why they're pouring massive resources—we're talking hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars—into propaganda to manipulate the Belarusian people. Their aim is to undermine the majority who support democracy, human rights, and closer ties with Europe.
The tragedy is that when Belarusians took to the streets in 2020, they genuinely believed in the power of democracy. They believed that international law would prevail, that Lukashenko—the man who gave the order to fire on people—and his cronies would be held accountable for their crimes.
Yet, four years on, Lukashenko hasn't faced a single charge. Our organization, the National Anti-Crisis Management, has submitted evidence to the International Criminal Court in The Hague regarding the abduction of Ukrainian children and their forced ideological indoctrination. We've also partnered with the Lithuanian human rights center, Justice Hub, to produce a comprehensive report documenting the cases of at least 136,000 individuals who were subjected to crimes against humanity in Belarus between May 2020 and May 2023. But justice remains elusive, and the Belarusian people see little concrete support for their struggle from the European Union.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: What concrete actions does Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's cabinet expect from the European Union?
Pavel Latushka: Firstly, the EU needs a coherent strategy for Belarus, with a strong emphasis on holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for their crimes. Secondly, we need the EU to engage more directly with Belarusian civil society.
There's been a lot of talk lately about the need for increased defense spending, especially among the countries bordering Belarus and Russia. I don't disagree with the need for a strong defense, but the most potent weapon we have is the Belarusian people themselves. Right now, the majority of Belarusians oppose both the war and Lukashenko's regime. Let's harness that power. In this regard, Belarus is very different from Russia, where a large segment of the population supports both the war and Putin.
As long as Belarusian society continues to resist the war and oppose the use of Belarusian territory for aggression against Ukraine or any of our neighbors, that will be our strongest deterrent. If that motivation is allowed to falter, our neighbors in the EU and NATO will feel the consequences.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: And what about the third point?
Pavel Latushka: The third element, of course, is visa policy. We understand that the difficulties Belarusians face in obtaining visas are not entirely the fault of our partners in the EU. Lukashenko's decision to expel numerous diplomats, including consuls, has created a real bottleneck. We need to find ways to streamline the visa process so that ordinary Belarusians can travel abroad. It's hypocritical to restrict travel for ordinary Belarusians while simultaneously continuing to trade with the aggressor, even increasing trade volume in some cases.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: How much has EU trade with Belarus increased?
Pavel Latushka: Experts estimate that in 2022-2023, goods worth 10 billion euros were routed through Belarus from Germany, Lithuania, and Poland. These goods could easily be used to support Russia's war effort.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Does this mean that sanctions do not apply to Belarus?
Pavel Latushka: The EU sanctions against Belarus are twelve times weaker than those imposed on Russia. If the goal is to cripple Russia's ability to finance the war, we must remember that Belarus and Russia are part of an economic union. So, when the EU's trade turnover with Belarus increases, it benefits Russia. The goods are still finding their way into Russia, simply by being routed through Belarus.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: So, are we essentially seeing the same mechanism at play as in Central Asia?
Pavel Latushka: Absolutely. Let me illustrate with the paint market. Belarus used to purchase a certain type of paint for €16,000. Now, they're paying €15 million—almost a thousand times more! Why the drastic increase? It's simple: these paints are being funneled through Belarus and into the Russian market, circumventing the sanctions that prevent direct imports from the EU.
And the statistics bear this out across various sectors. For instance, glass exports from Belarus to the EU have quadrupled recently. The reason? Russian glass is now subject to sanctions, while Belarusian glass is not. This fourfold surge in Belarusian glass exports is simply Russia exploiting a loophole, selling its glass to the West through Belarus. This is Russian glass.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: So, it's essentially a sanctions-busting scheme.
Pavel Latushka: Precisely. And the frustrating part is that everyone at the European Commission is aware of this. I know they know because we've presented them with compelling evidence, research, and detailed reports during numerous meetings. Yet, they're dragging their feet on taking decisive action. Why? That's a question for our partners to answer, not me.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: So, what's the solution?
Pavel Latushka: First and foremost, we need to ban the transit of goods through Belarus to third countries. That would eliminate the incentive to import goods into Belarus for the sole purpose of re-exporting them to Russia.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Is that a realistic option?
Pavel Latushka: Ultimately, that's up to Brussels to decide. The European Commission could also introduce quotas on both imports from and exports to Belarus.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: What about the media landscape? Belsat TV has played a crucial role in providing independent news to the Belarusian people, or at least a segment of it, for many years. Is that still the case?
Pavel Latushka: We need to view this issue through a wider lens. Putin and Lukashenko are actively building a joint media empire—the Union State media holding company—which serves as a propaganda arm for Russia's annexation agenda in Belarus. They're weaponizing ideology and propaganda, using shared television channels, magazines, newspapers, and the extensive reach of Russian state media to penetrate the Belarusian information space. They're even installing their own propagandists on Belarusian programs that support Lukashenko.
We're engaged in a battle for the hearts and minds of the Belarusian people, and it's an uphill battle. Independent media outlets can only operate from exile, as they've been branded as extremist and shut down within Belarus.
To effectively counter this onslaught of propaganda and reach the Belarusian people with independent information, we need a concerted effort on a European scale, with support from our American allies. Belsat TV, broadcasting from Poland, is a vital asset in this fight. It's the most popular independent outlet and has a strong presence across various social media platforms.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Do you have any concerns about the future of Belsat?
Pavel Latushka: During my meetings at the Polish Foreign Ministry, I've received assurances that the new government remains committed to supporting Belsat.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Beyond Belsat, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, funded by the United States, plays a vital role. What other outlets are crucial in this information landscape?
Pavel Latushka: Euroradio broadcasts from Warsaw, while Belarusian Radio Racyja operates out of Białystok. We also have online platforms like Zerkalo.io and Nexta.tv, the "Real Belarus" YouTube channel, and the "Nasha Niva" portal, all working from abroad.
This situation echoes historical precedents, particularly in Poland's own experience with a government-in-exile based in Great Britain during World War II. You also sought its recognition.
We're currently engaged in a similar struggle for recognition. As I mentioned, we have state institutions in exile—the president, the government, the parliament. We have a Belarusian state operating outside the borders of Belarus. Securing recognition for these institutions from our international partners is paramount. It's not only strategically important for the future of our country but also for Poland and our other neighbors. Ultimately, our interests align. We aspire to live in a democratic, free Belarus, and our neighbors deserve the security of knowing that Belarus poses no threat to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, or the wider European Union.
Aureliusz M. Pendzivol: Thank you for the interview. I wish you the very best in
Pavel Latushka: Thank you. On a personal note, I want to express my profound gratitude, not as a politician, but as a human being, for the extraordinary generosity and solidarity shown by Poland and the Polish people in welcoming hundreds of thousands of Belarusians. Your embrace during this challenging time is a testament to the enduring bond between our nations. We are deeply grateful for your support.
Pavel Latushka, politician and diplomat, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (the government of Belarus in exile), head of the National Anti-Crisis Management. Former Minister of Culture of Belarus and former director of the Yanka Kupala National Academic Theater in Minsk. Former Ambassador of Belarus in Warsaw, Paris, Madrid and Lisbon.
Aureliusz M. Pendziwoł, a journalist currently working for the Polish edition of Deutsche Welle. His career includes previous roles with the Polish departments of the BBC and RFI, as well as with the Parisian "Culture." For two decades, he served as a correspondent for the Viennese business newspaper "WirtschaftsBlatt."
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