Site search

Cooperation with the democratic forces of Belarus, the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border, and the release of political prisoners were the key topics discussed during the meeting between Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and Head of the People’s Anti-Crisis Administration, and Grzegorz Schetyna , Chairman of the Parliamentary Group of the Sejm and Senate of Poland "For a Free Belarus", held at 11:00 in the Senate of Poland. During the meeting, the following points were discussed: Issues of further cooperation with the Coordination Council  as a representative body of Belarusian society; The possibility of holding a meeting between the "For a Free Belarus" group and members of the Coordination Council ; Participation of Coordination Council  representatives in an international meeting of MPs from parliamentary groups cooperating with democratic Belarus, to be held in October in Paris . Grzegorz Schetyna  confirmed his willingness and readiness to participate in this meeting as the head of the parliamentary group of the Polish Sejm and Senate "For a Free Belarus". The meeting also addressed issues related to further steps aimed at the release of political prisoners in Belarus , as well as the potential release of one of the leaders of the Polish minority in Belarus, Andrzej Poczobut . In light of the growing tensions on the Belarusian-Polish border , Latushka  appealed to Grzegorz Schetyna , head of the parliamentary group, to ensure that any possible restrictions announced yesterday by the Polish government  do not apply to the passenger movement of Belarusian citizens . Latushka  emphasized the importance of maintaining mobility for Belarusians when visiting EU member states. A special focus during the meeting was placed on the extraterritorial crimes committed by representatives of the Lukashenko regime  against members of democratic institutions and initiatives operating on the territory of Poland , and the importance of an international legal response  to these crimes by Lukashenko . Pavel Latushka  noted that the Lukashenko regime  has intensified its information war and pressure campaign  against democratic institutions and activists in the run-up to the fifth anniversary of the 2020 protests , once again highlighting the importance of the existing institutions and civil initiatives  working to change the situation in the country.

A. Lukashenko and V. Putin. Source: minval.az Theses of the speech by Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, at the College of Europe Dear friends, ladies and gentlemen, The purpose of my speech today is to raise the issue of serious security challenges in Europe, which are emerging right on the borders of the European Union. These challenges come from the Lukashenko regime, which acts as a systematic and willing ally of Putin’s Russia. Many still believe that Lukashenko is a “hostage of the Kremlin,” that he acts under pressure. This is a dangerous misconception . It not only falsifies the reality but also prevents a proper assessment of the risks, paving the way for repeating past mistakes. The facts gathered and analyzed by the analytical team of the National Anti-Crisis Management in their reports clearly show: Lukashenko is not a victim. He is a full-acting, deliberate partner and active accomplice in the Kremlin’s aggression, voluntarily providing Belarusian territory and resources for the war. “The Union State”: A Tool of Imperial Policy, Not an Equal Partnership of Sovereign Nations First of all, it is important to understand the true nature of the so-called "Union State." It is not an equal partnership between two sovereign countries.  The analytical team of the National Anti-Crisis Management prepared a report titled “The Union State as a tool to cover up Russia's imperial policy” , which clearly outlines that this project is only a facade — a legal cover for Russia’s imperial strategy.  Its true goal is the de facto absorption of Belarus and the erosion of its sovereignty and independence. It was Lukashenko himself — the author  and driving force behind the idea of creating the Union State — who deliberately drew Belarus into this dependency. The timeline of integration reflects this trend, initiated by him from his earliest years in power: In 1995,  Lukashenko initiated a referendum, one of the questions of which was: “Do you support the actions of the President of the Republic of Belarus aimed at economic integration with the Russian Federation?”  This showed his early and active orientation toward Russia. In 1996 , the Treaty on the Establishment of the Community of Belarus and Russia was signed.–  In 1997, the Treaty on the Union of Belarus and Russia was adopted. On December 8, 1999 , was an important step when the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State was signed, legally formalising the project. In the following years, active work began to form joint governing bodies and deeply unify legislation across various sectors—from the economy and social policy to defense and security. A new, more intensive stage of integration began with the signing of 28 Union Programs on November 4, 2021 . These programs consolidated the close integration of the economies, tax systems, and customs services. In the same period, in November 2021, the Supreme State Council of the Union State approved a new Military Doctrine , which legally prepared the ground for aggressive actions and the use of the Belarusian territory for military purposes. Lukashenko actively facilitated the transformation of this project into a tool for dismantling Belarusian sovereignty , step by step giving up national interests under Kremlin control in exchange for preserving his personal power. And now we see that the Lukashenko regime has become a tool of aggression . It was also from Belarus that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022. Since 2022, under Lukashenko's leadership, Belarus has been undergoing a deep and deliberate transformation. The goal of these changes is to prepare the country for possible full participation in the war on the side of the Russian Federation.  This is not a hypothesis. This is not a conspiracy theory. It is a systematic militarization of all key sectors of Belarusian society — from the legal system and armed forces to the economy, infrastructure, and even the education system. Let me present the reality of the situation based on our analyses. The role of the Union State in the war The military doctrine of the Union State, signed by Lukashenko and Putin on 4 November 2021, spelled out in more detail the system of functioning of the Regional Grouping of Troops (Forces). A month after the adoption of the Military Doctrine of the Union State, in December 2021, Putin and Lukashenko decided to hold a joint exercise "Union Resolve -2022". The exercise was scheduled to end on 20 February. However, Putin and Lukashenko decided to continue testing the reaction forces within the framework of the exercise "Union Resolve – 2022”. This was reported in the Belarusian Defence Ministry: "In connection with the growing military activity near the external borders of the Union State and the escalation of the situation in Donbas, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation have decided to continue testing the reaction forces of the Union State". Thus, it was under the cover of these exercises that the Russian attack group was deployed in Belarus, and 4 days after the end of the exercises, the invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus took place. Despite the fact that Putin and Lukashenko's plans to "seize Kyiv in 3 days" failed, they did not give up the main goal — the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and inclusion of its territories into the Union State in the future.  Lukashenko's further actions of complicity in the aggression against Ukraine were implemented within the framework of the military doctrine of the Union State. Belarus' transfer of military equipment and ammunition to Russia, training of Russian mobilized personnel on the territory of Belarus, and expansion of cooperation in the sphere of the military-industrial complex with Russia's allies also took place within the framework of contacts within the Union State. Special Tribunal and War Crimes Here, it’s important to highlight some recent and very significant developments that are the result of our consistent work. The adoption of the Statute of the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine on June 25, 2025 means that an official indictment will be prepared against the Belarusian dictator for committing the crime of aggression against Ukraine. The main thing is that this Tribunal will not recognize Lukashenko’s “functional immunity”  — and that’s a real achievement. The Tribunal will follow international law, and the National Anti-Crisis Management worked hard to ensure that it includes jurisdiction over Lukashenko. At the April session of PACE, following my initiative, an amendment was included in the PACE resolution that provides for the need to extend the jurisdiction  of the Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine to cover the relevant actions of the highest military and political leadership of the Lukashenko regime. It’s also important that the Statute of the Tribunal makes a direct reference to UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 . This means the Tribunal is required to use it when deciding what counts as an act of aggression. Lukashenko’s actions — allowing Belarusian territory to be used for Russia’s attack on Ukraine — clearly fall under the definition of aggression in Article 3 of that Resolution. In addition, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recently recognized not only Lukashenko’s role in the aggression, but also his direct responsibility for a war crime — the deportation of Ukrainian children. At my initiative,  as a member of the Belarusian Coordination Council and a delegate to PACE, an important addition was included in the Assembly’s final resolution.  It addresses Lukashenko’s responsibility for the transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus and, through its territory, to Russia. This addition was based on evidence collected by the National Anti-Crisis Management and presented by us to PACE. We are working consistently to bring accountability for the illegal relocation of thousands of Ukrainian children  — and these efforts are already showing results at the international level. We would like to see the Lukashenko regime held accountable for its crimes, and that is a critically important part of our strategy. Systematic Preparation for War: A Fact-Based Analysis Today, in 2025, the Lukashenko regime continues to deepen its systematic preparation for war. The scale and details of this preparation have been studied and presented in the second analytical report by the National Anti-Crisis Management, titled “Systematic Preparation by the Lukashenko Regime for Possible Entry into the War on Russia’s Side and Recommendations for Preventing This Scenario” At the end of April 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern over Russia’s activities in Belarus. He stated that, under the pretext of military exercises, Russia may be preparing offensive operations while concealing its specific objectives and plans. Zelensky emphasized that such actions could pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to other countries, such as Lithuania and Poland, and called on the international community to be prepared for any scenario . Since 2022, the Republic of Belarus under Lukashenko’s leadership has entered a phase of large-scale transformation aimed at preparing for a potential armed conflict on the side of the Russian Federation.  Lukashenko has repeatedly emphasized the need to prepare for a possible war. In September 2024, he stated: “We must prepare for war.” These processes have affected key areas of state and public life, including legislation, the armed forces, the economy, education, the ideological sphere, and infrastructure. As a strategic ally of Russia, Belarus under Lukashenko’s regime is becoming increasingly integrated into the sphere of its military interests, establishing a comprehensive military, political, and legal foundation for entering the war. Let me now present the key facts and conclusions from this study.  Transformation of the Political and Legal System: – The new 2022 Constitution gave the All-Belarusian People's Assembly — a body fully controlled by the regime — the power to approve the use of armed forces outside the country. This eliminates any real democratic control over military decisions.– The updated Military Doctrine of Belarus and National Security Concept now officially allow sending Belarusian troops abroad and using “preemptive strikes.”  This marks a shift away from a defensive strategy and is a clear legal step toward possible aggressive actions.– Laws on martial law and states of emergency significantly expand the powers of the state to restrict the rights of citizens, while allowing persons with criminal records to be recruited for service indicates a shortage of personnel and intensive mobilisation training. Modernization of the Armed Forces: – The size of the army is growing, and the number of contract soldiers has increased by 1.5 times — a clear sign of readiness for possible combat operations.– Plans are in place to expand the army’s size to 80,000 personnel, particularly in connection with the creation of a Southern Operational Command — a formation directly tied to the Ukrainian front. At the same time, the reserve of the Armed Forces is estimated at 289,000, providing significant potential for mobilization.– A new People’s Militia is being formed, which could reach up to 150,000 members. These forces are meant not only for territorial defense but also for internal control and suppression of any resistance. – Mobilization procedures have been made much simpler: draft notices sent by SMS now have legal force, and penalties for draft evasion have become tougher. The regime is preparing for fast and large-scale mobilization of the population. An Economy on a War Footing: – Military spending has sharply increased — by 32% in 2025.  The Ministry of Economy now directly coordinates mobilization efforts, showing that the civilian economy is being shifted toward military needs. Decree No. 29 of 2025 granted the Ministry of Economy the authority to coordinate mobilization activities,  signaling a shift toward centralized resource management under emergency conditions.– The Belarusian military-industrial complex is deeply integrated with Russia’s defense industry. Belarusian factories play a critical role in supporting Russia’s war machine — supplying chassis for strategic missile systems, optical equipment, electronics, and aircraft components. Without these supplies, the Russian defense sector would face serious difficulties. Military Cooperation with Russia: – Based on intergovernmental agreements between Belarus and Russia, a Regional Grouping of Forces has been established. As part of this, Russian military units are regularly stationed in Belarus.  Their numbers differ, but during active phases of the war in Ukraine, there were over 9,000 troops at times. At the time, before the full-scale aggression began, there were over 30,000 Russian soldiers stationed on the territory of Belarus. – The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, along with statements about being ready to host the "Oreshnik" system, greatly increases strategic risks for all of Europe.– Members of the Wagner Group  have taken part in training Belarusian troops, teaching assault tactics — a clear sign of preparation for real combat.– Joint military exercises, such as  “West-2025,” with their clear offensive nature , are deeply concerning. We remember how the “Union Resolve” exercises were held right before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and served as cover for it. “West-2025” could easily be used in the same way — as a cover for new escalation. War Infrastructure: – The construction of the so-called “Khrenin Line” — a series of defensive fortifications along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania — shows that the regime is preparing for potential conflicts on multiple strategic fronts.– The modernization of airfields, bridges, and roads, along with increased secrecy on the Belarusian railway system, points to large-scale logistical preparations for receiving and moving major military forces. Ideological Mobilization and Total Control: – The Lukashenko regime is heavily militarizing public opinion, especially among young people.  Military-patriotic camps and mandatory pre-conscription training are aimed at creating total loyalty and building an image of the West and Ukraine as enemies.– At the same time, the regime is cracking down hard on the opposition.  Dozens of criminal cases have been opened for things like “discrediting the army,” evading conscription, and spreading so-called “fake news.” Human rights organisations report around 1,200 political prisoners. Administrative arrests, job dismissals, and expulsions from universities are common. The regime targets alternative centers of power — such as the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council — labeling them “extremist” and “terrorist” groups. This shows a clear attempt to crush all dissent and prevent any possible resistance inside the country in the context of a potential war. The Belarusian People: Your First Line of Defense It is critically important to understand:  this preparation for war is not the choice of the Belarusian people.  Independent sociological research shows that the majority of Belarusians do not support deep political integration with Russia. Only about 4% are in favor of fully joining the Russian Federation.  Our people want Belarus to be an independent, sovereign, and peaceful country — one that is part of the European community, not involved in someone else’s wars. The Lukashenko regime is acting against the will of the Belarusian people, forcing this “integration” and preparation for war through repression and violence. It is crucial to understand: Europe’s first line of defense does not lie at the EU’s border with Belarus. It lies within Belarusian society itself — a society which strives for freedom, democracy, and peace. Belarus must not become a new staging ground for war in Europe. It must become part of a free, peaceful European family. The decision to adopt this preventive strategy — to increase pressure on Lukashenko’s aggressive dictatorship now — should be taken before the price of delay becomes too high. Thank you for your attention.

On June 26 , I had the honor, together with President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya  and Siarhei Tsikhanouski , to take part in a meeting with the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda . This meeting lasted more than an hour and took place at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw . First , I thanked the President of Poland for five years of unwavering support for Belarusians who were forced to leave their country. This will remain in the historical memory of the Belarusian people — the moment when Poland  extended its hand and came to our aid, while hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, driven out by the most severe wave of repression Europe  has seen in decades, had to flee Belarus . Second , I expressed my gratitude to the President for the words he once said to me — that he would always raise the Belarusian  issue on international platforms and draw attention to the importance of remembering the situation in Belarus . And I thanked him for keeping his word — for consistently speaking in support of democratic Belarus  and for not recognizing Lukashenko  as the legitimate president of Belarus . Third , I asked the President of Poland  not to forget about Belarusians and Belarus  in his future public and political activities, and to continue supporting us in achieving our common goal. It was especially important for me to tell the President of Poland  that the first line of the European Union’s security does not lie along the state borders of Poland , Lithuania , and Latvia  with Belarus  — but within Belarusian society itself. That is why it is crucial to support Belarusians who stand for independence, oppose war, and fight for freedom in our country. It is essential to support independent media, bloggers, and all active individuals who continue to deliver the truth and independent perspectives into Belarus  for Belarusians . President Duda  emphasized that his vision  for European security strategy is one where four countries — Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, and Lithuania — as allies, are free and democratic . This, he said, would create a strong buffer zone of security for the broader democratic European space. President Duda  is truly an ally  — an ally of Belarusians  who want to live in democracy and freedom.