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Insights from The Associated Press, CBS News, and The Economist Source: semafor.com Two Polish men have been arrested in Poland on suspicion of having attacked a close ally of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Warsaw officials said Friday. A Belarusian working for Russia who allegedly ordered the assassination attempt was also arrested. Russian activist Leonid Volkov, a close aide of Navalny, was attacked by assailants wielding a hammer and pepper spray on March 12 near his home in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, where he lives in exile. The suspects in the attack carried out “the orders of the special services of an alien country,” a spokesperson for a Warsaw court said Friday. Volkov has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “henchmen” of bearing responsibility. The arrests are the latest in a string of incidents that show how deeply Russian interests have penetrated Europe. On Thursday, German authorities said they had arrested two men on suspicion of spying for Russia to collect information about potential attack targets. And another Polish citizen was also arrested this week for allegedly helping to plan an attempt to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Attack underscored how dissidents are unsafe wherever they go The attack on Volkov underscored the risks for dissidents of both Russia and Belarus who have sought safety in Lithuania, Poland, and elsewhere, The Associated Press reported. Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian culture minister now in exile in Warsaw, told the outlet: “it is evident that all boundaries have been breached, and crimes can be committed within the territories of European Union member countries.” “I think the aim of such attacks is to paralyze people, to paralyze democratic movements,” said Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who also lives in exile in Lithuania.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador What are the five main elements of possible support for the Belarusian people by democratic states? In 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, several nation states emerged and gained independence. How did Europe respond to this? For some reason, Western politicians regarded Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia as falling within Russia's sphere of interest. Decades later, it is evident that this decision was a strategic mistake. In 2014, nobody could have anticipated that Belarus would play a significant role in Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022. All of this stems from strategic mistakes made in 1991 and 2014. Granting territorial concessions to the aggressor and attempting appeasement have consistently resulted in negative consequences. Even the Lukashenko regime, which has consistently supported Russia, reached the same conclusions after 2014. The dictator was not concerned about the country or the state, but rather his own power. Then, between 2014 and 2015, Lukashenko managed to convince Western partners of a favorable narrative: that only he could save Belarus from Putin and guarantee its independence. Lukashenko manipulated the West, fully aware that he had no intention of implementing reforms or relinquishing power. His inclination towards the West was merely an excuse to extract more resources from both the EU and Russia. We frequently emphasize to our partners that it is only a matter of time before Russia non-militarily annexes Belarus. Lukashenko will be unable to prevent this, but the worst-case scenario is if the Belarusian people are also unable to prevent it. Our Western partners have a choice: Support Lukashenko, believing that he will protect Belarus. Support Belarusian society and assist the Belarusian people in reclaiming their agency. Only a free, independent, European, and democratic Belarus can guarantee that Russia will no longer be able to carry out aggression, not only against Ukraine but also against the EU. As a politician, I wholeheartedly endorse all actions taken by our partners to strengthen national security and defense. However, it is crucial for our Western partners to understand that the Belarusian people are the primary force and the main weapon. In a situation where the Putin and Lukashenko regime decides to once again employ Belarus as a base for aggression against Ukraine or any EU member states, the Belarusian people, who endure daily repression, will be our foremost weapon.

Pavel Latushka: Will Lukashenko come to Poland? Currently, the National Prosecutor's Office of Poland is conducting criminal proceedings against Alexander Lukashenko and officials under his command for crimes committed against national and political groups, as well as other individuals. The National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) is actively working to thoroughly investigate the crimes committed by Lukashenko and his accomplices against Belarusian and foreign citizens. We are providing relevant materials to the Prosecutor's Office of Poland, the International Criminal Court in The Hague, and the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine. In line with the agreements reached in November 2023, Marcin Wiącek, the Commissioner for Civil Rights of Poland, has updated Pavel Latushka, the head of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), on the progress in reviewing the applications submitted by Belarusians regarding the crimes committed against them. In his letter to the NAM, the Ombudsman of Poland mentioned that the Department for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption of the National Prosecutor's Office of Poland in Lublin is currently examining the following cases: The crimes against humanity committed by Alexander Lukashenko and other identified officials of the Republic of Belarus, against both Belarusian and foreign citizens, including multiple instances of murder, serious manslaughter, infliction of serious bodily and mental harm, and the deliberate creation of living conditions with the aim of physically destroying, either completely or partially, a national or political group. These acts were carried out by an organized armed criminal group, which included Alexander Lukashenko and other named officials, as part of a state policy that constitutes political terrorism supported by state terrorism. The hijacking of a Polish aircraft, involving the illegal act of forcing Ryanair flight FR4978 to land on June 21, 2021, at Minsk airport in the Republic of Belarus. This action, carried out by officers of the Belarusian KGB following the orders of Alexander Lukashenko and other individuals, posed a direct threat to the lives and health of many people, causing harm to both private interests and the interests of the Republic of Poland. The trafficking of persons, exploiting citizens of Iraq and other nationalities, involving the recruitment, transportation, delivery, transfer, harboring, or reception of individuals from outside the territory of Belarus for a fee, with the purpose of forcing them to illegally cross the border of Belarus with European Union countries (Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland). This was committed by Alexander Lukashenko as the leading executive using the state administration subordinate to him, along with Belarusian travel agencies acting on behalf of the state administration. Instances of violence and threats against groups and individuals based on their national and political affiliation, particularly those associated with the democratic white-red-white national symbols of Belarus. These acts, carried out by Alexander Lukashenko and other identified officials, involved the use of illegal and punitive threats through media information, internet portals, and messengers, indicating the potential commission of crimes against the health and lives of threatened individuals and their families. A joint investigation team, consisting of Poland, Lithuania, and Germany, has been established to investigate these crimes. The investigation is being conducted based on a decision by the Deputy Prosecutor General of Poland for Organized Crime and Corruption. Marcin Wiącek assured Pavel Latushka that he will continue to monitor the progress of the investigation to ensure the respect for rights and civil liberties. Pavel Latushka, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, commented on the prospects of legal prosecution, stating, "The continued work of the Polish prosecutor's office on the possible involvement of Lukashenko and his accomplices in committing crimes against citizens of Belarus and other countries is crucial to achieving justice for the grave and especially grave crimes committed by the regime in Belarus. We have provided evidence and given testimony in all of the aforementioned cases. We will continue to take all possible actions to ensure the legal prosecution of Lukashenko, including through five international mechanisms such as transferring the situation in Belarus to the ICC for consideration of crimes against humanity, as well as for the war crime of illegally transferring Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus, committed by Alexander Lukashenko and his accomplices. I believe that Lukashenko can only come to Poland in handcuffs."