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Theses of Pavel Latushka's speech Berlin Belarus Future Forum German and European Support for Democratic Belarus: What’s possible? What’s working? What’s missing? Berlin, 14.10.2024 I would like to thank The Konrad Adenauer Foundation, The Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Heinrich Böll Foundation and Friedrich Naumann Foundation for organizing the first Berlin Belarus Future Forum and for the constant support you give to the Belarusian civil society in its aspiration for freedom, democracy and a European future for Belarus. I am an optimist. And I am convinced that such a future — democratic and European — awaits Belarus. Why don't I question it? Because it's not just about believing in the best. It is about the goal. Strategy. And the result.  There are grounds for my optimism. One of them is the Bundestag Resolution “For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family” adopted on November 7, 2023. Once again, I would like to thank the members of the Bundestag present here for the creation and adoption of this systemic document. It is important to underline — this is a systemic document of strategic importance.  What do I mean? If this Resolution, along with the approaches and principles it outlines, are adopted as a basis for the strategy of Germany, as one of the leading states of the European Union — then the path of Belarus to democracy and the European future will become much shorter. As well as the path to security in the region.  But in order to talk about the strategy, it is important to clearly define its goal. In my opinion, this is what is missing today. I propose to define this goal: a democratic Belarus as an integral part of the European community and regional security system. Democratization of Belarus and security in Europe are closely connected. Democratic Belarus, Belarus without Lukashenko, cannot a priori be a threat either to Ukraine or to Europe. Unfortunately, our partners did not have enough political will to support the struggle of Belarusians in 2020 with quick, decisive measures, quick application of sanctions and other effective mechanisms of pressure on the Lukashenko regime.  As a result — war against Ukraine, hybrid war against the European Union. And this is a direct result of the Lukashenko regime's staying in power.  It is also important to define the basic point: Lukashenko's regime is a permanent threat to European security. This is a fact. But the key to security in Europe also lies in Belarus. In democratic Belarus.  A question to German politicians: are they ready for the public statement — democratization of Belarus equals the end of Lukashenko's regime? This should not be your “red line”. This “red line” is the result of the incorrect strategy that has been prevailing in the Western policy for a long time. A strategy with an eye on Russia, based on outdated concepts of “spheres of influence”. We see where it has led. In 2022, Russia, backed by the Lukashenko regime, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And for the first time, the world's eyes began to open to what happens when you let the aggressors establish their “spheres of influence” and their “borders” for a long time. But the eyes are still not fully opened. And not everyone wants to open them. Is Ukraine getting enough help? We all know it is not. And at the same time, it is also receiving restrictions, “red lines”. Does this bring Ukraine closer to victory and Europe closer to security? Of course not.  And does the preservation of Lukashenko's pro-Russian dictatorship in Belarus bring Ukraine closer to victory and Europe closer to security? The answer is also no. I will say more — Ukraine's victory alone will not be enough to restore security. As long as there is a dictatorship in Belarus and Belarus will not stop being considered and being in Russia's “sphere of influence,” Europe will be in danger. It is a mistake to delay the issue of Belarus' democratization until Ukraine's victory. And moreover — before democratic changes in Russia. The logic is the opposite. Democratic changes in Belarus and depriving Russia of the opportunity to use Belarus for its purposes will accelerate Ukraine's victory many times over. This is not a “red line” — it is a necessity.  Moreover, the potential of changes in Belarus, the potential of Belarusan society — is much higher than in Russia. The majority of Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko. In Russia, the situation is the opposite — the majority of Russians are for the war and for Putin. In 2020, Belarusians showed that they were ready for democracy. And this readiness has not gone anywhere, despite all the terrible hardships and mass terror that our people have been going through since then. And this is the basis, the foundation, which does not exist in Russia, but exists in Belarus. The foundation on which the strategy of Germany and the European Union as a whole regarding Belarus should be based. Belarusians are willing and ready for democracy. But just like Ukraine, we need not reactive but proactive allies. With clear goal-setting. With a clear strategy. Strategy, not tactics. At the center of this strategy should be the stake on the Belarusian society and on the political institutions of Belarusian democratic forces. The situation for the beginning of the transit of power can occur at any moment. Lukashenko will die tomorrow. Who will Europe bet on? On his successor, the new dictator? Or on a Russian protégé, a new puppet of the Kremlin? No one predicted the events of 2020 in Belarus. We cannot repeat the mistake and again take an observing position instead of quick measures to support the struggle of Belarusians for democracy. That is why at the beginning of my speech I said that the Bundestag Resolution “For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family” is a systemic document that has the potential to become a strategy. Strategy, the goal of which is a democratic Belarus as an integral part of the European community and regional security system. What is missing to adopt such a strategy? To be honest, political will.  To move from words to deeds. From resolutions and declarations to strategy and systemic actions. And all of them are spelled out and compiled in this document. 1. This is non-recognition of Lukashenko and non-recognition of his fake “elections”, both past and future, planned for 2025. 2. This is a systemic, stable (including financial) support of organizations and initiatives of civil society, the activities of which are primarily directed inside Belarus. As well as support for independent media and bloggers. And this support should be multiplied, realizing that today Russia allocates billions for the promotion of the “russian world” in Belarus. And the EU — only a few millions. 3. This is support for the established and functioning system of political institutions of Belarusian democratic forces. A real democratic alternative to the pro-Russian Lukashenko regime.  This is the President-Elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus as an executive body. And the Coordination Council as a representative body. 4. This is the continuation and intensification of sanctions pressure on the Lukashenko regime.  This is the continuation of the policy of harmonizing sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and Russia for the aggression against Ukraine. 5. This is bringing Lukashenko and his accomplices to international criminal responsibility for their crimes. You know that on September 30 of this year the Lithuanian government submitted to the Office of the Prosecutor of the ICC in The Hague materials on cross-border crimes against humanity committed by the Lukashenko regime against the Belarusian people. A historical precedent has been set. The road for the restoration of justice was opened. The Minsk-Gaaga train with a passenger named Lukashenko moved on September 30, 2024. And it will reach its destination. Lukashenko's arrest warrant will become one of the most important levers for splitting the elites at a critical moment. There won’t be many people willing to become Lukashenko's traveling companions on the Minsk-Hague train and share the status of international criminals with him. But this train can and must be accelerated. The sooner the responsibility for Lukashenko and his accomplices comes — the sooner the future, about which we are talking, will come for Belarus and Belarusians. Belarusians deserve justice. And to help provide it is what democratic countries can do. The support of such strong and influential states as Germany is extremely important in this way. Each State Party to the Rome Statute can exercise its right under Article 14 of the Statute, as Lithuania has already done. 6. It is important to build more systematic and periodic cooperation with the institutions of Belarusian democratic forces in the key directions outlined above. Not a monologue, but interaction. 7. Not to decide the fate of Belarus behind the back of the Belarusian society. I'm an optimist. But not an idealist. And I realize that the path to a democratic European Belarus will take time. But the route has been defined. And the strategy is basically in front of us. Yes, we can discuss, adjust and improve it. But let's do it on the move, on the way to the goal. Is anyone present in this room ready to believe Lukashenko?  Believe him again? Then they must be prepared for another circle. I don’t believe that Lukashenko will restore the 11 dissolved opposition parties, I don’t believe that he will reinstate the independent media that have been shut down, I don’t believe that he will re-register the 1,700 dissolved NGOs, or return the rights to the tens of thousands of Belarusians from whom he took them away (pensions, ranks, property, etc.). We must not create the illusion for ourselves that it's possible to return to 2019.  The dictator has committed mass crimes against humanity,  initiated aggression against Ukraine , and is waging a migration war . He bears responsibility for those killed during the protests and damaged lives of hundreds of thousands of Belarusians. Everything we hear from Voskresensky and Protasevich is an opportunistic game, dust in the eyes. I urge you to stop listening to them, stop spreading their statements and commenting on them. Lukashenko’s main goal is to turn the page, his main goal is to evade responsibility, his main goal is to destroy any alternative — he fears the alternative. Lukashenko will never agree to a transition. His very purpose in life is power. That’s why we need a strategy of decisive action. And we need the character and the will to endure it all. Only the elimination of the regime in Belarus will create a chance for democratic changes in the country. Thank you for your attention. Жыве Беларусь!

" It is extremely important that Poland and other democratic countries support Lithuania's efforts by exercising their right under Article 14 of the Rome Statute. Let justice prevail over impunity. This is what the majority of Belarusians want. This is what unites us — the desire for justice ", stated Pavel Latushka , Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and delegate of the Coordination Council of Belarus, during a meeting with Marshal of the Polish Senate, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska . On October 8, Pavel Latushka and Speaker of the Coordination Council, Anzhelika Melnikova , met with Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Also present at the meeting were Grzegorz Schetyna , Chairman of the Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee, and Robert Tyszkiewicz , Coordinator for Polonia and Poles Abroad in the Senate. During the meeting, Pavel Latushka and Anzhelika Melnikova provided the Polish side with detailed information about the activities of the Coordination Council and the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Pavel Latushka raised the issue of Poland's support for Lithuania's appeal to the International Criminal Court regarding cross-border crimes against humanity committed by Lukashenko's regime, including those on Polish territory. It was noted that such support could be significant during Poland’s presidency of the EU. Pavel Latushka also cited examples of ongoing repression   in Belarus , reporting that on October 8 alone, the Belarusian Investigative Committee opened criminal cases against 45 people, including members of the Coordination Council, who are accused of allegedly attempting to seize power. During the meeting, Marshal of the Senate, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, emphasized the importance of the active work of the parliamentary group in Poland supporting an independent and democratic Belarus. Grzegorz Schetyna, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, noted that Poland's presidency of the EU would be a good opportunity to demonstrate support for democratic forces and the democratic aspirations of Belarusians. "We are strong supporters of your activities. We will show that it is worth supporting the fight for your sovereignty. We will remind everyone that there is a country in Europe that is deeply undemocratic, where people are imprisoned for their beliefs," Schetyna stated. Robert Tyszkiewicz, Coordinator for Polonia and Poles Abroad, stressed the importance of showing that Poland’s support for democratic Belarus is not a one-off approach but a systematic one , encompassing political, cultural, economic, and other areas, while also highlighting the importance of presenting a European perspective for Belarus.  The prospects of democratic forces from Belarus participating in the EU's Eastern Partnership initiative were also discussed. Pavel Latushka and Anzhelika Melnikova proposed holding hearings and discussions in the Polish Senate dedicated to the situation in Belarus, in connection with the mass human rights violations, as well as fostering cooperation between the committees and working groups of the Coordination Council of Belarus and the Polish Senate. Representatives of the Polish Senate expressed interest in considering the possibility of holding a conference in the Polish Parliament on the Belarusian issue, ahead of Poland's EU presidency. "Poland is a leader among our partners supporting a democratic Belarus and a leading country in the EU in shaping EU policy towards Belarus. Poland has consistently shown solidarity with the Belarusian people in our aspiration for an independent, democratic, and European Belarus", Pavel Latushka emphasized.

Павел Павлович Латушко:  Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (UTC), representative of the UTC on power transition. Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and Movement for Freedom" faction in the Coordination Council of the third convocation Is the dictator trying to correct his failed foreign policy? Or is he looking for a country where the International Criminal Court won't find him? Why is the dictator flirting with Azerbaijan? On October 3, during a meeting with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov, Lukashenko assured Azerbaijan of his support; a few months earlier, he had visited Azerbaijan. What is behind these actions of the dictator? Before discussing this, let's recall one of the dictator's recent foreign policy "feats". Specifically, his interview with propagandist Yevgeny Popov, which provoked discontent in several countries — Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Poland. The number of even potential allies for the dictator is dwindling. His toxic internal and external policies, insults directed even at representatives of the few remaining states willing to engage with him, his crimes, and the interest in him from the International Criminal Court render him untouchable in many countries. It is not surprising, as civilized nations seek reliable and predictable partners, and not all are willing to collaborate with a criminal. Moreover, cooperation with the dictator carries the risk of falling under secondary sanctions. The history of the dictator's relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan demonstrates Lukashenko's character and ideology: he is ready to betray any ally for money to maintain his power. For a long time, the dictator supplied weapons to Azerbaijan, effectively providing resources for attacks on the territory of his ally within the CSTO.