Artem Brukhan, Deputy Head of the NAU, on the position of the European Union regarding Belarus
Belarus is certainly of interest to Europe. The European Union has always regarded Belarus as a European state, which is home to a society with European views and aspirations for democracy. However, there are certain forces that oppose this. The development of the Eastern Partnership project also testifies to the fact that Belarus is potentially seen as a state that in the long run can become a part of the European family. And now, after the statements of democratic forces of Belarus, after the intention of the Belarusian people to democracy, it is confirmed.
Therefore, there are no strategic fears that Europe considers Belarus to be a part of Russia or has already built an iron curtain.
But what is the tactical situation? We see what is happening in the region now: there is a war. And the European Union is a powerful, strong union. But it is not omnipotent. And we must understand that the situation in the region is critical. Ukraine is in a challenging situation, in a difficult position. And if now the whole vector of attention is shifted from the Ukrainian problem to Belarus, it is quite possible that the state, which has already made a choice in favor of the European Union at the level of power and announced it, will simply disappear. And it will be a collapse of the European Union, a blow to it as a whole.
Therefore, the issues are being resolved according to their importance for the EU. We cannot say that Belarus has completely disappeared from the agenda. It certainly sounds to a lesser degree, but there is a war in Ukraine now.
And if Ukraine does not hold out, if military aid does not flow, it may lead to tragic consequences not only for Ukraine, but also for Belarus.