Europe will not be safe if Belarus is pushed aside and quietly handed over to Russia's protectorate

Theses of the speech by Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, at the International conference “Belarus: A Part of or Apart from Europe’s Security?” in partnership with NATO Public Diplomacy Division

01.12.2025, Brussels

Dear colleagues,

I want to start with a question: Can an axiom be debated?

I am not here to prove the axiom. We all know how it sounds: Europe's safety cannot be fully secured if Belarus is not part of the European security system. Europe will not be safe if Belarus is pushed aside and quietly handed over to Russia's protectorate.

Yes, we must state the unpleasant truth: at this moment, Belarus already shows clear signs of a protectorate state. The Lukashenko regime, while still performing the functions of government, has some freedom in domestic affairs. But a large part of Belarus's sovereign rights — especially in defense and foreign policy — has been given away. It has been given to Russia.

We have seen the regime's limited contacts with the US. We see how Lukashenko is trying to force contact with neighboring states — Lithuania and Poland — through behavior that the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, correctly called terroristic. Can we call this foreign policy? I believe a better description is hybrid aggression. Or even terrorism. And again, this acts against the national interests of Belarus and the interests of its people.

The hybrid attacks against the EU and the regime's involvement in the war against Ukraine are done for the benefit of the Kremlin. In return, Lukashenko gets protection to stay in power and carry out his domestic repressive policy in Belarus. A better term for that policy is state terror. The main goal of this terror, which has affected hundreds of thousands of people, is to destroy Belarusian sovereignty. The Lukashenko regime is systematically repressing, persecuting, and expelling the active, democratically- and nationally-minded people. In short, Lukashenko is destroying the very basis of our sovereignty.

The outer form of statehood remains. And this fact is often used by those who suggest keeping the status quo, calling Lukashenko the one who — for better or worse — guarantees Belarus's independence. As a former ambassador, I know well who created this concept: Vladimir Makei.

This concept sets up a false choice: either Lukashenko or Russia. Surprisingly, this idea still has supporters. They are people who learned nothing from 2022, when that "guarantor of independence" gave Russia the infrastructure and territory of Belarus to attack Ukraine. That event should have been the clearest proof of Lukashenko's true level of independence.

Let us look at the situation pragmatically. Lukashenko is an old man. He could die tomorrow. What then? That is the end of the dilemma. Betting on Lukashenko is a losing game; there is no long-term strategy behind it. The lesson of 2022 showed there is no short-term tactic either.

Only a truly independent Belarus, running a truly sovereign policy, and not suffering from a deep internal political crisis, can be a source of regional security. Which of these things is the Lukashenko regime providing today? Only a crisis. A crisis he created himself. Without solving this crisis, Belarus will remain a permanent security threat to Europe.

This is why we cannot allow Belarus to be left out when creating a new regional security system.

At the same time, we must understand that no new security system will be effective if it does not include a solution to the Belarusian crisis.

We, the democratic forces, offer an effective plan to solve the crisis. It is a National Dialogue in the format of a Roundtable between representatives of the democratic forces — our political institutions — and representatives of the Lukashenko regime.

There is a clear national consensus in Belarusian society that can serve as the basis for such a dialogue. This consensus is the desire to live in an independent state, in peace with our neighbors, and a strong refusal to take part in wars.

It is true that the Lukashenko regime is not showing great interest in a National Dialogue right now. However, Europe — as a party interested in solving the crisis and ensuring its own safety — has a real tool to influence the Lukashenko regime: sanctions.

It is necessary to make a real National Dialogue with the democratic forces, as an equal partner, the mandatory condition for stopping and later removing sanctions. It is vital to set this condition instead of trying again to make a deal with a dictator-liar. Such deals today will not even solve tactical problems.

At the same time, Europe must avoid a dangerous strategic error that is currently possible. Europe must not totally cut itself off from the Belarusian people.

This means that while maintaining and deepening sanctions on the Lukashenko regime until the National Dialogue is held and the political crisis is resolved, we must not let the Belarusian people be thrown behind a new Iron Curtain, turning Belarus into North Korea 2.0 in Eastern Europe.

We cannot leave Belarusians alone against Russia and its puppet Lukashenko. In the future, this would mean that Belarus will permanently become Russia's proxy for future aggression. When talking about peace in Ukraine and Europe, the EU must have a strategy that includes, not excludes, Belarus and the Belarusian people. Only the Belarusian people can guarantee the country's independence and regional safety.

That is why the Cabinet proposes creating a group of proactive allied nations for an independent democratic Belarus. We also propose holding a political conference dedicated to supporting the Belarusian people, helping to start the National Dialogue in Belarus, and solving the internal political crisis — as a core part of the regional security crisis.

Today, talks about peace in Europe are happening without mentioning Belarus. This is a mistake that Russia is using to secure its sphere of influence. If we do not fix it, Belarus will be lost to Europe.

It is important to remember that the first line of Europe's defense does not yet run along the EU border with Belarus. Europe's first line of defense is the Belarusian people. We must not lose them. We must strengthen their agency by supporting the democratic forces and our institutions.

We need to strengthen, not cut off, the ties between Belarusians and Europe. And we need to increase, not weaken, the pressure on the Lukashenko regime, with a clear goal: National Dialogue and resolving the political crisis in Belarus.

But in this dialogue, the Belarusian people and their democratic institutions (the Cabinet and the Coordination Council) must be a partner at the roundtable, not an object of deals between the regime and Brussels. This has happened too many times in Belarusian history and in the EU's policy toward the Lukashenko regime. We must not repeat this error again. Nothing about us without us.

Thank you for your attention.

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