Pavel Pavlovich Latushko: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador
Information has emerged that the Lukashenko’s regime has sentenced an EU citizen, specifically a German citizen named Rick Krieger, to death. He is accused by the regime under five articles of the Criminal Code, including an act of terrorism. The German Foreign Ministry has already confirmed the information about the death sentence.
Firstly, the very fact of a death sentence, the fact that the death penalty still exists in Belarus in the 21st century, can only be assessed in one way: this must not exist in a European country.
This sentence can be interpreted as a terrorist act, and Lukashenko is indeed a terrorist who has repeatedly committed acts of state terrorism, including the hijacking of the Ryanair plane. We remember this well. Undoubtedly, he is demanding some price — ransom or exchange — for the life of the German citizen.
And one might even speculate on what that price could be. Let's try to understand this situation better. There are grounds to believe that the entire situation with Rick Krieger is a collusion between Lukashenko and the Kremlin. After all, in Germany, there is a Russian FSB officer, Vadim Krasikov, serving a life sentence for the public murder of a political refugee in Berlin. According to some sources, the Kremlin's leader wanted to exchange Krasikov for Navalny, then there were attempts to trade him for Evan Gershkovich, an American journalist for "The Wall Street Journal" who was taken hostage in Russia and was recently sentenced to 16 years in prison. However, Germany refused.
Now, Lukashenko and Putin have decided to leave Berlin with no choice — they have taken a German citizen hostage and threatened him with the death penalty. Let's break this down: FSB officer Krasikov is serving a life sentence in Germany for a real political murder, and Lukashenko, at the Kremlin's behest, has sentenced a German citizen to death. Life imprisonment in one case and the death penalty in the other — they have raised the stakes.
Incidentally, it is said that when the death sentence was announced to the German citizen in court, he looked bewildered and surprised. The German consul and the lawyer were also shocked, with the lawyer blushing in confusion, as it was unclear why this sentence, let alone a death sentence, was handed down.
A question to Lukashenko's entourage: Do you really want to bind your destiny to this erratic terrorist who commits criminal actions against one of the leading countries in Europe and the world?
Secondly, let's analyze the potential consequences of having a German citizen taken hostage by the regime, especially one who is facing the threat of execution.
We already see how Lukashenko's regime has exacerbated relations with the European Union — with mass repressions in Belarus, the orchestration of a migration crisis, taking European citizens hostage on fabricated charges, and complicity in the war against Ukraine.
The situation created by this erratic individual is closer than ever to a real iron curtain, where not only goods but also passenger traffic could be completely halted.
Of course, we understand perfectly well that the dictator doesn't care about people, and the inability of Belarusians to travel to Europe only benefits him. Dictatorship feels much more comfortable in isolation from the civilized world; isolated people are easier to manipulate, it’s easier to sell them the story of a "treacherous and decaying West," and they are easier to repress and control.
A completely different story is the flow of goods and trade. The transit of goods. The opportunity to profit from this. The opportunity to profit from circumventing the sanctions imposed on Russia for the war against Ukraine. The opportunity to profit from Chinese transit, being its "window to Europe" within the framework of the "Belt and Road Initiative."
All these opportunities for the regime are now closing. Firstly, due to the adoption of a new package of sanctions by the European Union on June 29, which significantly harmonized economic sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko regime. These are sanctions for the war against Ukraine, in which the Lukashenko regime is an accomplice and, prior to their adoption, a holder of the "gray zone" for their circumvention. The harmonizing package largely closed this sanction loophole, being in essence an effective measure to control the enforcement of sanctions. And a necessary measure from the point of view of depriving Russia of resources, goods, and technologies to support its aggression against Ukraine.
Secondly, the "Belt and Road Initiative," specifically the Chinese transit through the Belarus-Poland border, is under threat. The reason, once again, lies with the Lukashenko regime, which has been waging a hybrid war against this country, as well as Lithuania and Latvia, through the organization of a migration crisis since 2021. There have already been casualties on the Polish side in this conflict. One such victim is Mateusz Sitek, a soldier who died from a knife wound inflicted by a migrant. Incidentally, information that the murderer of the Polish soldier is still on Belarusian territory has been published by Polish intelligence services in recent days. Additionally, 25 Polish soldiers have been injured to varying degrees while guarding the border due to attacks by illegal migrants. Furthermore, since March 25, 2021, the Lukashenko regime has held Andrzej Poczobut hostage — a journalist, activist, representative of the Polish national minority, and member of the "Union of Poles."
At the moment, the situation is the following: Poland is declaring its readiness to completely close cargo traffic with Belarus if the Lukashenko regime does not meet its demands: stop the migrant attacks, hand over Mateusz Sitek's murderer, and release Andrzej Poczobut.
China has been informed about this and is being forced to get involved, as its transit routes would be threatened. Lukashenko's regime has already received a signal from China that his actions are undesirable and that he should resolve his issues with Poland.
Thus, Lukashenko is attempting to diversify his dependence on Russia by moving closer to China, or at least demonstrating such a shift.
However, achieving this without provoking a backlash is, to say the least, a daunting task. The "stray" Russian drones in Belarus strongly hint to Lukashenko that he will not be allowed to switch allegiances.
By sending drones, Russia is making it very clear to Lukashenko that his flirtation with China is against Russia’s interests. But he has only himself to blame: he’s reaping what he sowed.
Thus, the current position of Lukashenko's regime is quite uncomfortable.
The harmonization of sanctions calls into question his further usefulness to Russia as a supposedly "independent" entity. Due to the adoption of the new EU sanctions package, Belarus's "window to Europe" is closing. Maintaining Lukashenko, who is now scrambling to keep his footing, just for his good looks, seems like a dubious investment, doesn't it? On the other hand, he is also under pressure regarding Chinese transit. In both cases, he is already incurring serious costs that will only worsen over time. And he understands this perfectly well.
Yet instead of taking practical steps, he continues to make superficial ones. Although he tries to send signals to the West, the EU, and Poland about his supposed readiness for dialogue, he is still only offering symbolic gestures. For instance, he has introduced visa-free entry for citizens of 35 European countries. Through his new foreign minister, Ryzhenkov, he claims openness to communication with Poland, but at the same time, blames Poland for the situation at the border. The regime calls Poland's fundamental conditions unwarranted blackmail.
A rather weak and unconstructive negotiating position, wouldn't you agree? It's not surprising that Poland has explicitly stated it will only be ready to talk after practical steps are taken by the regime, rather than populist PR statements. Any attempts to shift the blame onto Poland or to complain about it to China will have no effect, and may even worsen the situation.
It would seem that the best scenario for Lukashenko would be to negotiate with Poland, meet its demands, and secure guarantees from China. But instead, it turns out he plans to execute a German citizen.
And here, pardon the bluntness, one can only say this: Lukashenko, who tries to present himself as a geopolitical player and strategist, turns out to be simply an idiot. Not that this would have looked much different before the news about the death sentence for Rick Krieger, but this situation only reinforces the thesis we've always presented to our international partners — Lukashenko is neither a rational nor a reliable actor. Engaging in any constructive negotiations with him is meaningless. He is a terrorist. His irrationality, as he himself has admitted, has no "red lines."
Will he achieve his goals by terrorizing and blackmailing not only Poland, but also Lithuania, Latvia, and now Germany — one of the leading countries in the European Union and the world? Will he succeed in having the sanctions lifted and border crossings reopened?
I don't think so. Such actions will only accelerate the final descent into an iron curtain. China will not quarrel with the EU for the sake of Lukashenko and will simply reroute its transit routes around Belarus. The advantageous transit position of Belarus will be lost.
I'm afraid to even imagine what this will cost our country in the long term. But imagine — and I say this now to Lukashenko's supporters and his entourage, including Maxim Ryzhenkov: imagine that Belarus ceases to be a transit country. Imagine it becoming irrelevant not only to the EU but also to China. And all of you will be left alone with Russia. For Russia, Belarus is simply a territory of purely military interest. Do you really think that in such conditions you will be of any interest to the Kremlin? That it will care about maintaining any level of living standards by injecting non-repayable subsidies into Belarus? That it will need you in your current positions? The examples of such territories are right before your eyes — the occupied L/DNR.
And eventually, Lukashenko will be gone. He might be operating under the logic that after him, it’s all over, but you will be the ones left to live here. In a country where an erratic, terrorist old man has signed a death sentence. He hasn’t just signed a death sentence for a German citizen — he has signed it for the country itself.
It hasn’t been executed yet. But the trigger is already being pulled.
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