Hidden Mobilization in Belarus: How the Regime May Transform Repression into a Military Resource?

The image is illustrative in nature

In recent days, a series of high-profile statements have come from Lukashenko, the head of his Administration Krutoy, and Defense Minister Khrenin. "Violators of discipline" during the harvest campaign are planned to be sent to military training for 2–3 months — in particular, to the southern border with Ukraine, at the disposal of special operations forces. Lists of offenders are to be drawn up by mobile "troikas" consisting of the chairman of the district executive committee, the head of the enterprise, and the military commissar. At the same time, standard restrictions on age, health condition, or qualification will not be taken into account.

What is actually behind these decisions? Is this really an attempt to "restore order," or are we witnessing a test run of a hidden mobilization scheme?

Taking into account the fact that a dictatorship complicit in the war against Ukraine is in power in Belarus, it cannot be ruled out that, under the pretext of "disciplinary training," the regime intends to implement precisely the latter and begin taking people into the army through a simplified scheme. Why?

First, this kind of scheme allows the regime to bypass the risks of open mobilization. Officially announcing it would be more difficult for the regime — it could cause panic and serious social tension. But the format invented by Lukashenko of "training for offenders" allows civilians to be taken without an official declaration of mobilization and outside established procedures. In essence, a person is deprived of freedom and sent to the army simply by decision of his superior and local officials.

At the same time, we see that these people are already being pre-labeled with terms like "pilferers," "drunkards," "loafers." This is a tried-and-tested dehumanization technique, through which the regime explains its sick logic of action to society and portrays those being mobilized as marginals no one would pity.

One can also assume that behind such actions of the regime lies a transformation of the repressive system. This closely resembles the Belarusian version of the Russian scheme for mobilizing convicts, but with even harsher specifics, in which the army plans to forcibly take in simply people considered by the regime to be offenders.

At the same time, this helps the regime avoid risking its career security forces, whom it considers the mainstay of its power. It's no secret that the Kremlin is actively pushing Belarus toward deeper involvement in its aggression. Hence a cynical calculation arises: send ordinary workers into a potentially dangerous zone and use this resource if needed or if the Kremlin demands support for the military aggression.

It cannot be ruled out that this experience is being closely monitored in Moscow. If Belarusian society accepts such a hidden draft under the guise of "corrective training," the Russian authorities — who already face the question of whether mobilization is necessary — could replicate exactly the same scheme at home.

The potential scaling of this scheme to other sectors should also be considered. If the system works in agriculture, exactly the same tool of hidden mobilization could be extended to industrial workers, students, and so on. In the end, any infraction could become grounds for sending a person into the army.

Officials and military commissars on the ground who sign these lists of "offenders" should remember: you are becoming accomplices in the unlawful deprivation of liberty and the sending of people into zones of heightened danger.

And for Belarusians right now, it is critically important to understand the regime's real motives, to support one another, and not to allow themselves to be turned into expendable material.

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