Hybrid War Against the EU: Lukashenko's Actions and the EU's Response

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council.

More about Lukashenko's actions and the EU countries' response to this

Since 2021, Lukashenko has been systematically using migrants to put pressure on the European Union. By August 2021 alone, the number of attempted illegal border crossings into Poland from Belarus was eight times higher than the total number recorded in all of 2020. In total, since 2021, there have been over 110,000 recorded attempts to illegally cross into Poland from Belarus. During the same period, Lithuanian border guards prevented around 24,000 such attempts.

This is not spontaneous migration, but a planned operation that the EU describes as hybrid warfare. With support from Russia, Lukashenko is using migrants as a tool to pursue several objectives:

• Destabilize the EU: By overwhelming the border services of Poland, Lithuania, and other countries, he diverts resources and creates chaos.

• Undermine the Schengen Agreement.

• Retaliation against Western political and economic pressure.

• Legitimize his rule: Lukashenko aims to show that he can “control” the flow of migrants.

Financial gain: Lukashenko’s associates and affiliated networks profit millions from visas, airline tickets, and smuggling.

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