Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador
What are the five main elements of possible support for the Belarusian people by democratic states?
In 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, several nation states emerged and gained independence. How did Europe respond to this?
For some reason, Western politicians regarded Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia as falling within Russia's sphere of interest. Decades later, it is evident that this decision was a strategic mistake.
In 2014, nobody could have anticipated that Belarus would play a significant role in Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022. All of this stems from strategic mistakes made in 1991 and 2014. Granting territorial concessions to the aggressor and attempting appeasement have consistently resulted in negative consequences. Even the Lukashenko regime, which has consistently supported Russia, reached the same conclusions after 2014. The dictator was not concerned about the country or the state, but rather his own power.
Then, between 2014 and 2015, Lukashenko managed to convince Western partners of a favorable narrative: that only he could save Belarus from Putin and guarantee its independence. Lukashenko manipulated the West, fully aware that he had no intention of implementing reforms or relinquishing power. His inclination towards the West was merely an excuse to extract more resources from both the EU and Russia.
We frequently emphasize to our partners that it is only a matter of time before Russia non-militarily annexes Belarus. Lukashenko will be unable to prevent this, but the worst-case scenario is if the Belarusian people are also unable to prevent it.
Our Western partners have a choice:
Support Lukashenko, believing that he will protect Belarus.
Support Belarusian society and assist the Belarusian people in reclaiming their agency.
Only a free, independent, European, and democratic Belarus can guarantee that Russia will no longer be able to carry out aggression, not only against Ukraine but also against the EU.
As a politician, I wholeheartedly endorse all actions taken by our partners to strengthen national security and defense. However, it is crucial for our Western partners to understand that the Belarusian people are the primary force and the main weapon.
In a situation where the Putin and Lukashenko regime decides to once again employ Belarus as a base for aggression against Ukraine or any EU member states, the Belarusian people, who endure daily repression, will be our foremost weapon.