Pavel Latushka, deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, ambassador
In recent months, Lukashenko himself and representatives of his regime have centered on increased militaristic activity and direct threats to a number of countries. Being a threat is now Lukashenko's main political approach in both foreign and domestic policy.
The Lukashenko regime is increasing defense spending. In 2024, the regime will spend 29% more on defense than in the previous year.
There are systematic exercises at training ranges across the country, exercises to mobilise industrial material resources in case of war, the so-called people's militia has been created, the Military Doctrine and the National Security Concept have been updated, special units of internal troops with the participation of Wagner fighters have been created in Minsk, Brest, Hrodna, Gomel, Astravets and other cities, Russian training and combat centres for joint training of military personnel have been established in Hrodna and Baranavichy.
Russia uses military airfields in Zyabrovka and Luninets, and there are Russian military facilities in Belarus. Belarus is increasing its arms purchases, and nuclear tactical weapons are deployed on the territory of the country.
At the same time, the Lukashenko regime actively broadcasts militarized propaganda inside the country and society, simultaneously setting the army against Belarusians by such decrees as Decree No. 37. Why? Is he preparing it to suppress anti-war protests?
Lukashenko has no plans to stop. He does not plan to distance himself from Russia anywhere, but only binds our country more tightly with it under the guise of "integration" and especially in the military sphere. Recall that the updated Military Doctrine of the so-called Union State has been in force between Belarus and Russia since November 2021. There is a joint regional grouping of troops and forces of the Union State.
Lukashenko's regime is militarizing at an accelerated pace. The Belarusian military-industrial complex already stands on military rails, and is already working for war, actually as a part of the military-industrial complex of Russia. Propaganda imposes military thinking on society. The norms of legislation, though it cannot be called either legislation or norms, are essentially brought into conformity with the principles of wartime.
At such a pace, in two or three years, if not earlier, the majority of the Belarusian army, which is the most exposed to the paramilitary propaganda, will really be ready to start a war, including against the West. This does not look like an unrealistic scenario at all.
It is important for us to change the minds of people influenced by regime propaganda. To protect our children from it. Not to allow our values, our history and our identity to be replaced by alien "values" and ideas of an aggressive "Russian world".
We, Belarusians, have no enemies. Neither in Ukraine, nor in the European Union, nor in NATO. And we should not let Lukashenko's regime change this.