Artsiom Brukhan, Deputy Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), explained on Euroradio how the dictator envisions the transfer of power and who might succeed him.
"The so-called All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (UNS), initially designed as a mechanism for Lukashenka’s power transition, was later repurposed for other objectives and even forgotten for some time. Now it has resurfaced to lend authority to this body. Why?
One theory suggests that Lukashenka is contemplating Dmitry Krutoy (the head of his administration) as a potential successor. The dictator has often discussed ways to ensure that a new president would lack a powerful vertical power structure like his own".
If the transfer happens through the UNS, Krutoy benefits:
"Dmitry Krutoy has been actively promoted during the 'Unity' marathon, touring cities and delivering political messages, such as reminding residents of Pinsk that he is from there. This appears to be an attempt to win favor with the public. Consequently, we are witnessing two campaigns: heavy promotion of Lukashenka and simultaneous promotion of Krutoy".
Lukashenka has learned lessons from Kazakhstan’s power transition:
"The dictator wants the new president to have limited power. In this context, Krutoy fits the bill. Lukashenka aims to bolster his legitimacy through 'non-elections' and only then implement the power transition, presenting it as a 'wise decision'. This is crucial for him".
Comentários