Is it true that instead of weakening, Lukashenko may face new U.S. sanctions? What role could Belarus play in military conflicts in Africa? And why is this a troubling signal for the Belarusians themselves?
Belarus is increasingly sinking into the shadowy world of military dictators and isolated regimes. While other countries build dialogue with developed powers, Lukashenko opens doors to leaders of dubious military factions. The recent visit of Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, is a striking example of how Lukashenko’s regime is balancing on the brink of an international scandal.
Haftar — a Libyan military leader who started with Muammar Gaddafi, was his close ally but betrayed him during the revolution and sided with the rebels. Now Haftar is one of the leaders of a military faction involved in the ongoing civil war in Libya and claims authority in the African country.
Media outlets associated with Lukashenko’s regime reported that the talks focused on “humanitarian, social, and economic cooperation.” However, the participants of the meeting, namely the head of the KGB Ivan Tertel and Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, suggest that other topics were likely discussed.
This is confirmed by Libyan sources. According to them, the purpose of the visit was to strengthen the air force of Haftar's army, including technical maintenance and modernization of Russian MiG-29 fighter jets. In addition to spare parts supply, discussions also involved the training of Libyan pilots and cybersecurity development.
Why is Lukashenko reaching out to a leader of a country torn apart by civil war?
And why is Lukashenko establishing contacts with one of the participants in the civil war in Libya?
Belarus has found itself in deep international isolation due to the actions of dictator Lukashenko and his domestic repressive policies. In such conditions, the regime is forced to seek partners among countries that are also in conflict with the West or undergoing internal crises. Libya is one such example.
But it is important to understand that Libya today is not a unified state, but a fractured country, where different factions are fighting for power. Haftar is the leader of only one of these factions, not the entire Libya. In fact, his meeting with Lukashenko is an interaction not with a state, but with a military faction.
One of the main goals of the negotiations was military cooperation. Belarus, having a developed defense industry, could sell weapons, military equipment, or offer repair and modernization services to Libya.
Additionally, Belarus could act as an intermediary for Russia in arms supplies to Libya. Moscow had previously used a Syrian military base for such purposes, but with its weakened position in the region, this route has been under threat. Belarus, having established schemes to bypass sanctions, could take over part of these supplies.
What does this mean for the Belarusians?
The benefits of such cooperation for Lukashenko’s regime are clear: money, political support from Russia, and the appearance of international contacts. But for ordinary Belarusians, it means added risks:
Growing International Isolation: In recent months, Belarusian diplomats have been in contact with representatives of countries in crisis — North Korea, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon. This shows that Lukashenko is taking Belarus deeper into the club of isolated regimes.
Cooperation with dubious military leaders involved in civil wars further undermines Belarus’ reputation on the international stage.
Conclusion: Playing with Fire, Dragging Belarusians In
Khalifa Haftar’s visit to Minsk is not just a diplomatic meeting. It’s another step by Lukashenko toward shadow deals, armed conflicts, and authoritarian regimes where violence and chaos prevail.
In the context of international isolation, the regime is not seeking partners who can bring real economic benefits to Belarus, but instead is focusing on cooperation with dictatorships, military factions, and countries engulfed in civil war.
The main problem is that such contacts offer nothing good for the Belarusians. Lukashenko is not developing trade with successful states, not attracting investments, not opening new markets for Belarusian goods. Instead, he is dragging the country into dangerous schemes that could lead to tougher sanctions, new economic losses, and even greater disdain on the world stage. And there are grounds for this. Specifically, the Libya Stabilisation Act provides for the possibility of imposing sanctions on foreign organizations supporting warring Libyan factions. That means any Belarusian company could face blocking U.S. sanctions for assisting the faction led by Haftar.
Or is Lukashenko hoping that the U.S. won’t notice? He’s wrong to hope.
U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson from the ruling Republican Party stated that he urges Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar not to make a big mistake by allowing the expansion of Russian presence in Libya. Remember, Congressman Wilson is one of the legislators behind the development and adoption of the Libya Stabilization Act.
By the way, immediately after his visit to Minsk, Haftar rejected the reconciliation plan for Libya signed at a meeting during the African Union summit.
But back to Lukashenko. The most important thing is that he is taking these dubious steps not for the country, but for himself. Lukashenko no longer sees Belarus as a state with independent interests. All his actions are aimed solely at preserving his own power and gaining personal benefits. Weapons sales, military contracts, deals with dubious regimes — all of this helps him maintain control, fill the budget of the security forces, and ensure loyalty from his entourage.
At the same time, the real problems of Belarusians — falling incomes, plant closures, outflow of specialists, and economic crisis — do not concern him. While the country sinks into poverty, Lukashenko is establishing ties with people for whom war is business. And the longer this course continues, the more Belarus slips into the status of an outcast on the world stage.
Each such visit is another step toward turning the country into a tool for the dictator's personal ambitions. Belarusians remain the hostages of this game, left only to watch as their future is sold behind the scenes of military deals.
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