Lukashenko’s Plan for 2030
- Pavel Latushka
- Jan 2
- 6 min read
At first glance, this document looks like a plan to save the country. On closer reading, it turns out to be an instruction manual for freezing power in place. We are talking about the Programme of Socio-Economic Development for 2026–2030, approved at the 7th All-Belarusian People’s Assembly and presented by the regime as a response to the demographic crisis, economic stagnation, and international isolation.
But if we strip away the “right” words and look not at the rhetoric but at the logic, it becomes obvious: this is not a strategy for developing Belarus. It is a carefully packaged manifesto of dictatorship’s self-preservation, where "the people", "the future", and "security" are used as stage props for one single priority — preserving Lukashenko’s personal power at any cost.
The programme formally begins with "national demographic security". The phrase sounds appealing, but it is precisely under Lukashenko that Belarus has descended into a demographic catastrophe: mass emigration, the flight of young and educated people, families with children leaving the country, declining birth rates, and accelerated population ageing. The document says nothing about the main cause of this collapse — fear, violence, and the absence of a future. No benefits or slogans can keep people in a country where dissent leads to prison and civic engagement costs you your profession and freedom. Under the guise of concern for demography, the authorities are trying not to create conditions in which people would want to live and raise children in Belarus, but to maintain control over a shrinking population.
At the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, the usurper declared that "from the point of view of material incentives, enough has already been done". In other words, no more is needed. Lukashenko stressed: "I often repeat: you can’t force people to give birth with money". Young families should not count on support. The dictator openly says that Belarusians must rely only on themselves: "Therefore, before demanding something from someone — especially from me, from the authorities", Lukashenko says, "look in the mirror, at yourself — you need to work".
The second priority is the "development of human potential" and the "education of a patriotic personality". The key word here is not education but loyalty. In recent years, the education system has been turned into an instrument of ideological selection: teachers are fired for their beliefs, students are expelled for their civic position, schools and universities are saturated with propaganda and security forces. By a "harmoniously developed personality", the regime means a manageable, apolitical, or intimidated individual. Such "human potential" is needed not to develop the country, but to reproduce a totalitarian system.
No additional funding for education is planned. Lukashenko claims that the state already spends "crazy money" on it: "We spend huge amounts so that a person gets an education at school and enters a university". The same "We invest enormous resources in the development of healthcare", "conditions for work have been created", "doctors’ salaries have been raised". He is not planning to invest in culture either: "Sometimes we may already have an excess with restoring castles". But he does not intend to stop building palaces for himself. So leave Lukashenko alone — he still needs money to build a "tourist facility" in Oman on 200 hectares of land. Lukashenko does not like the heat, and there is a unique place there — along the ocean, mountains, where the temperature does not rise above 30 degrees Celsius.
The third priority — a "high-quality and comfortable living environment" — sounds especially cynical against the backdrop of degrading healthcare, growing inequality between Minsk and the regions, and the destruction of local communities. A comfortable environment, in the regime’s interpretation, is not about security and freedom, but about the absence of protests, quietness, and control. It is courtyards without people, streets without discussion, and cities without a future. Comfort here is understood as the absence of problems for the authorities, not for citizens.
A comfortable and high-quality environment is meant only for Lukashenko. Even his own diplomats, in his view, are not worthy of being treated in the so-called presidential hospital. "Recently, some of our ‘smart’ high-ranking officials sent me a letter", he says. "We need to put all diplomatic workers on the books of what we call the presidential hospital. Do you have any conscience? Why are you reaching for this hospital?" Meanwhile, ordinary Belarusians, following the example of Singapore, he proposes to fine for littering and uncleaned territory with astronomical fines.
The fourth priority — growth of competitiveness, technology, and digital transformation — looks like a rhetorical relic from the past. Under Lukashenko, Belarus has lost access to key markets, investments, and technologies. The IT sector, which the country was proud of not long ago, was pushed out of the country by repression and arbitrariness. Digital transformation under sanctions, isolation, and manual control is not development, but an imitation of modernization, designed to show movement where none actually exists.
Foreign investors who bring new technologies and create jobs will be "secured" along with the rest of the population, while those deemed unreliable will be pushed out of Belarus. The dictator threatens them directly: "There is no need to exploit our people, make money, transfer it to Lithuania, and then from there finance protest sentiments. This must not happen". At the same time, according to Lukashenko, "maximum comfortable conditions have already been created in Belarus for investors". Apparently, he means the main investor — himself.
The fifth priority, "strong regions", has long become an empty slogan. Regions in Belarus have been systematically drained: economically, in terms of personnel, and politically. Any initiative from below is suppressed, local self-government does not exist, and governors are appointed not for development but for control. Strong regions are dangerous for a dictatorship, so behind this slogan lies only further centralization of resources and power.
Lukashenko proposes to solve regional development problems by introducing a form of serfdom — binding people to rural areas and small towns through practically unpaid labor. "We need to secure people in agrotowns, large (support) villages", the dictator declares. At the same time, he proposes to limit Belarusians’ residence in Minsk: "In Minsk, a limit should be set on the commissioning of new housing — no more than 300,000 square meters per year. Maybe even less".
The sixth priority — strengthening defense capability and developing the defense sector — is key to understanding the true logic of the programme. This is where all illusions disappear. Belarus is being drawn ever deeper into Russia’s military orbit, losing the remnants of its sovereignty. The economy is being militarized not to protect the country, but to ensure the survival of a regime that has become part of Russia’s military infrastructure. "Defense capability" in this context means protecting Lukashenko’s power from his own people and turning the country into a military staging ground.
And Lukashenko is strengthening not the defense of the country as a whole, but of himself personally and his inner circle. He says this openly and urges people not to fear the deployment of "Oreshnik" missiles and nuclear weapons in Belarus: "Do not give in to these talks that because of nuclear weapons strikes will be launched at these facilities. And what, if they fight against us? Will they pat us on the head? Strikes will be launched against us. And they will be launched, as it is fashionable to say, at the decision-making centers. At us. At you and me. That’s the main thing".
Finally, tourism potential. This point looks almost grotesque in a country associated in the world not with culture and nature, but with political prisoners, repression, and complicity in war. Tourism is impossible without freedom, safety, and trust. In an authoritarian state with closed borders and a repressive system, it turns into a fiction needed only for reporting.
Apparently, this point was included because Lukashenko plans to develop his own personal tourism and vacation in Oman and the Emirates, where he has already built or is planning to build yet another residence.
Overall, the 2026–2030 programme is not a document about Belarus’s future, but a mirror of the dictator’s mindset. There is no human being as a free subject, no society as a partner, no state as a common cause. Instead, there is fear of change, an obsessive need for control, and a desire at any cost to prolong personal rule.
Under the cover of words about development, family, and patriotism, Lukashenko offers the country another five years of stagnation, isolation, and dependence — not for the sake of Belarus, but for his own.