Representatives of Belarusian political emigration called the creation of a commission for work with possible "returnees" a PR stunt.
Original article: golosameriki.com
On February 6, Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on setting up a special commission for working with opponents of the regime who wanted to return to their homeland. Accepting a report from the country's prosecutor general, Andrei Shved, Lukashenko noted that the commission to be created will decide whether or not Belarusian oppositionists can return to their homeland.
"Today I've signed a decree, prepared by a group of experts headed by you, on the consideration of applications of Belarusian citizens abroad for their offenses ... If we have not stipulated something in the decree, the Prosecutor General has enough power to engage the entire state apparatus, civil servants to solve this problem with those fugitives ... And we should look not only at fugitives. Someone will come out from under the plinth — they understand that we'll still find them," — the official Belarusian media quoted Lukashenko.
However, the main addressee of this statement — Lukashenko's political opponents — does not hurry to show remorse and admit their "mistakes" in order to, as the decree says, "consciously and actively perform their civic duty" to the current regime.
A correspondent of the Russian service of Voice of America was convinced of this.
Pavel Latushka, member of the Presidium of the Coordinating Council, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, states that Lukashenko proposes "an absolutely illegal instrument”.
"Neither the Criminal Code nor the Code of Criminal Procedure provides for such a procedure. If we talk about the possibility of creating such a special institution, we have to understand that the authorities in Belarus are illegitimate and it is impossible to believe in their actions ... In fact, Belarusians are offered to go with a formula of confessing their guilt in what they are not guilty of, that is allegedly a crime," — said a leader of the Belarusian opposition in a conversation with the Russian service "Voice of America”.
One of the main complaints to Lukashenko's "reconciliation" initiative is that the question of the statute of limitations for criminal prosecution is not actually solved. Today, they forgive you and put you on the "hook," but later, when the statute of limitations allows, they can resume the criminal case at any time and prosecute you for the crime of which you have already "repented”.
"As the Prosecutor General gave his word, he can just as easily take it back. We knew already 7-8 months ago that Lukashenko was working out such a plan. It is somewhat reminiscent of the times of a century ago, 1921-27 - the "Trest" operation. Maybe the message was slightly different, but the similarity of approaches is obvious," — Latushka explains.
Recall that some aspects of the long history, referred to by the Belarusian opposition activist, were once described in a novel by Lev Nikulin "Dead Ripples," on which the Soviet mini-series "Operation “Trest" was later filmed. The Soviet secret services managed to lure a large number of Soviet opponents to Soviet territory under the pretext of the need to participate in the work of an anti-Bolshevik organization (which did not exist in reality). Subsequently, they were all repressed, arrested and shot. By the way, a little later, a similar fate awaited many members of the secret services, who organized this provocation.
To the reporter's question why Lukashenko decided to create the above-mentioned commission, Latushka answered: "There are several reasons. First, he felt the outflow of professional, highly qualified personnel from Belarus from the IT sphere, business sphere, intellectuals — the people who created a significant added product in the economy of Belarus. Secondly, Lukashenko declared the so-called "Year of Peace and Accord", trying to give the impression that he advocates the normalization of relations with the majority of society, which until now has not supported him. But at the same time, Lukashenko publicly declares that those who repent should become even better than all the "yabatsky" around him today. It turns out that a person will have to do it publicly, to record a video message, in fact, to get down on his knees, as Lukashenko himself said earlier: "Come to me on your knees”. He wants to achieve, through humiliation, the action of being recognized by the majority of Belarusians. This gestalt is not closed for him; he is still concerned about the fact that the majority of Belarusians did not support him in 2020, and does not support him until now. But the criminal prosecution will come, so don't have any illusions," — says the "Voice of America" interlocutor.
Latushka refers to the data of the polls conducted by the Internet portal "Zerkalo". According to these studies, only 1% of those, who left Belarus after the events of summer-autumn 2020, are ready to return to the country and 2% more agree to think about it. "And that's out of the 160,000 who took part in this survey. This is the 3% that are in Lukashenko's possession. The vast majority of the Belarusians who left don't believe him. We know how Belarusians treat Lukashenko today. There is no faith in him, and no one will believe him, his train has gone, his door has slammed. But at the same time, he needs to create a picture and I can't rule out that there is a trained group of people who can make the required actions for television and return to Belarus," — says Pavel Latushka.
Vadim Mojeiko, an analyst at the Belarussian Institute for Strategic Studies, considers Lukashenko's appeal to political émigrés a sign that he has "not had the year 2020 off". "He says that this is an attempt to "turn the page" and move on. But this movement Lukashenko sees on his own terms, because the commission of his officials and law enforcement officers obviously has no credibility. And the format itself is not an attempt to forgive: "OK, we've long passed that, let's forget it and move on" — on the contrary, it is a desire to continue violence by other methods, to punish all those who disagree," — emphasizes Mojeiko.
The expert notes that Lukashenko does not understand the sentiments of the Belarusian diaspora abroad. "Accordingly, it is not clear for whom such messages are meant. If you believe the state propaganda, saying that all the Belarusians, having left Belarus, mop floors for a penny, freeze to death, starve, and so on, then one can assume that some of them are dreaming to return to Belarus. But, to put it mildly, this is not true, and the target audience of such appeals is not particularly visible outside the country. But those targeted by the state propaganda both in Belarus and in Russia may believe that Lukashenko has solved the political crisis, and everything is fine. And after the end of the work of this "commission," a couple of people will be filmed asking for forgiveness and repentance," — says the political analyst.
According to him, such initiatives of the official Minsk cause laughter among the political émigrés who left the country after 2020: "It is clear that there is no confidence in this and any person can be jailed at any moment, no matter what some commission says, and there will be no one to complain. And the main thing is, what will a person who has repented to the regime get? An opportunity to come to Belarus and live there in conditions of sanctions, economic problems, lack of prospects, with no hope for change, and in anticipation of a war that may spread to this country at any time”.
The expert himself does not consider the possibility of returning home in the near future. "Yesterday I started the trial of my colleague, political analyst Valeria Kostyugova, who is accused of her professional activity and of communicating with opposition politicians. And she faces up to 12 years in prison for this, which was a signal to the whole expert community. So, if a criminal case can be initiated for this, I am somehow not attracted to the idea of returning to Belarus," — says Vadim Mojeiko.
Head of the Research Center Mizes Jaroslav Romanchuk reminded that the topic of relations with political opponents of Lukashenko has been discussed constantly since late 2020, when he managed to keep the power in the country after the brutal repression.
"He needs repentance, humiliation, "to drive under the plinth" and say, "I am a hero, I have defeated everyone!" But he sees that Russia is losing this war, and sooner or later he will lose it for good, and he certainly would not want to go with Putin to The Hague or some other place like that," — says Romanchuk.
The expert describes the situation Lukashenko finds himself in as follows: "He understands that if Russia leaves Ukraine, all these bodies of the "Union State," which were created as a sham, may get a completely different meaning. Who will defend Lukashenko then? "Yabatsky”, and those around him now, certainly won't."
According to Romanchuk, in this case, the calculation was not made on the people who had left, but first of all on the "nuclear" electorate. And secondly, the 35-40% of citizens, living in the so-called "gray zone" and having doubts — is Lukashenko good or bad? "In terms of official propaganda — he didn't get Belarus directly involved in the war, which is an achievement. And now he is making such an offer. It's all aimed at consolidating his electorate. Of course, he does not think that anyone will return from abroad on such terms: "go grovel, crawl on your belly, I may put you in prison yet. Naturally, when the political processes in Belarus continue, and at the same time he calls the opposition to return home, but it is certainly not about mercy, understanding, peace and harmony," — says the analyst.