Pavel Latushka at the Consultative Group “Belarus–EU”: Belarusian society is on the front line of Europe’s defense
- Jun 11
- 4 min read
Lukashenko is a partner and ally of the Kremlin, not its hostage
The dangerous and misleading notion that Lukashenko’s aggressive actions are driven by pressure from Moscow dilutes his responsibility. The facts show that Lukashenko is consciously aiding the Kremlin in its aggression, using Putin’s support to maintain power and suppress Belarusians. He receives resources and political protection in exchange for his loyalty.
Belarus is not just a territory used for war. The Lukashenko regime is an active and motivated participant in the conflict, a co-organizer of aggression. The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus — the first such case since the collapse of the USSR — confirms the level of Lukashenko’s dependency and the threat to the region. He is acting strategically, preparing for long-term confrontation with the West, intensifying repression, and strengthening ties with authoritarian regimes.
The presence of Russian troops and nuclear weapons in Belarus threatens not only Ukraine but also Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. The regime’s hybrid actions — migration pressure, provocations, cyberattacks, disinformation — continue to escalate as elements of hybrid warfare against Europe. The existence of the Lukashenko regime is both a domestic tragedy for Belarusians and an external threat.
An alternative future for Belarus: civil and political infrastructure
Despite the repressions following 2020, the Belarusian democratic movement has created an unprecedented civil and political infrastructure:
President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the legitimate representative of the majority;
The United Transitional Cabinet acts as the executive body;
The Coordination Council serves as a representative body, formed through democratic elections;
A network of Cabinet representations and People’s Embassies exists in over 20 countries;
A developed civil society ecosystem has emerged.
Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians abroad — part of the new Europe
Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians were forced to leave their homeland because of the regime and its support for the war. This is an unprecedented situation:
From 2020 to 2023, Belarusians submitted 800,000 residency applications in the EU.
For example, in 2024 alone, over 5,600 Belarusians acquired Polish citizenship.
By early 2025, over 9,300 companies with Belarusian shareholders (73% established after 2020) and 20,000 sole proprietorships created by Belarusians are registered in the EU.
These businesses have created at least 25,800 jobs and contributed significantly to the EU's GDP (over €2 billion in Poland in 2023).
These Belarusians remain loyal to Europe and democracy, integrate, work, and pay taxes. They need political representation. Supporting democratic infrastructure is not just an act of solidarity — it is recognition of their political identity and their right to support. We are already part of European society.
The Lukashenko regime is waging war against Ukraine, Europe, and democratic Belarus
Over the past three years, the regime has comprehensively prepared for war — legally, militarily, financially, and informationally. It is deliberately destroying alternative institutions to deprive the people of leadership and the ability to resist in the event of war.
The United Transitional Cabinet, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Coordination Council, and civil society structures are all under attack:
Massive discreditation campaigns;
In-absentia criminal prosecutions, confiscation of property, persecution of families;
Thousands of extraterritorial crimes by the KGB, military intelligence, and Ministry of Internal Affairs.
Our struggle is not a stroll down the Champs-Élysées. Lukashenko is waging war against us. And we need allies.
Support for democratic forces — a strategic investment in Europe’s security
We are grateful for the assistance. Supporting democratic forces is not a humanitarian gesture but a strategic investment in Europe’s security. It is an investment in preventing future crises — and it is cheaper than dealing with the consequences of Belarus being used as a platform for war against the EU.
The first line of Europe’s defense is Belarusian society. Supporting the society and democratic forces means:
Preventing future crises rather than reacting to existing catastrophes;
Creating an ally in the region that will stand with Europe, not against it.
Without such support, there will be no alternative to the regime, which could lead to a power vacuum and its occupation by pro-Russian forces after Lukashenko’s inevitable fall. Belarus is part of Europe, and its future is being decided now. By helping Belarusians as Europeans, the EU helps preserve democracy, sovereignty, and independence in Belarus — and peace on Europe’s borders.
A reduction in support would signal that values only matter until they become politically inconvenient and would aid the regime in its aggressive plans. Without international support, the world could lose Belarus as part of the free world for decades. Change may not come tomorrow, but it is already essential for Europe to have a reliable, constructive, and pro-European partner. And it is crucial not to leave Belarusians alone with dictatorship and the Kremlin, but to preserve, support, and strengthen the democratic alternative we have managed to build.
Strategic proposals
It is vital to adopt a strategy on Belarus for the first time in the form of a joint declaration by EU institutions and the democratic forces of Belarus, affirming our partnership and mutual support.
This should be done through an international political conference organized in Brussels at the European Parliament by the end of 2025.
The final document of the conference must formally establish EU support for democratic institutions. It is crucial to send a strategic signal to the dictator and clearly define who represents Belarus and who Europe’s partner is.
Consider launching a special program to improve the EU’s image among the Belarusian population.
Support for Belarusian democratic forces is a contribution to Europe’s security. We are on the front line of the fight for democracy — against Lukashenko’s dictatorship, propaganda, disinformation, sanctions evasion, and for justice. We are under constant attack.
We fight because without a free and democratic Belarus, there can be no safe Europe. We are not petitioners — we are rightful representatives of European society. Our national interests align with European interests. We are a European nation and have the right to political representation that defends shared European interests and values.
Support for Belarusian democratic forces is not charity — it is an investment in the future of Belarus, its relations with Europe, in democracy, and in Europe’s security. It is especially important to invest now, when that future and our collective security are under tremendous threat.
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