The Decline of the Crypto Market in Belarus

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council.

Once, the authorities promised us a digital future, new opportunities, innovations that would make the country a global leader. We were told that Belarus would become the "Silicon Valley of Eastern Europe", that the High-Tech Park would become a gateway to the future. But in reality — everything turned out completely differently.

In 2017, Lukashenka signed the infamous Decree No. 8. It was presented as a revolution: legalizing mining, ICOs, and cryptocurrency exchanges. The authorities said: "Look, we are ahead of the whole world! Even Europe doesn’t have this". Many people believed it. Young entrepreneurs were creating startups, IT specialists hoped that finally they would have a chance to implement their ideas at home, not in Warsaw or Vilnius. And what do we see today?

Instead of the promised freedom — a complete fiasco. Belstat estimates the digital sector’s share in 2024 at 6.1% of GDP, while the information and computer technology sector accounts for 5.4%. In 2021, these shares were noticeably higher — 7.9% and 7.5%, respectively.

In Minsk, in 2020, the information and communication technology sector generated 20.8% of the city’s gross product. By 2024, its contribution had shrunk to 12.8%. In 2025, the IT contribution to GDP continues to decline. Operational data for the “information and communication” activity show its GDP share fell to 4.8%.

Belstat data also show that the number of people employed in the digital economy has decreased by 1.6% over five years. Currently, around 130,000 people work in the sector.

The Belarusian crypto market is also in crisis. Why? Because under a dictatorship, any initiative sooner or later turns into its opposite.

First, lack of real oversight and legal guarantees. At first, the authorities handed out benefits and opened doors to everyone, just to create the appearance of progress. But there was no mature system of investor protection, no genuine judicial independence, and there still isn’t. As a result, tens of millions of dollars invested by people simply disappeared. Fourteen million dollars in unreturned funds were mentioned in a meeting. But how much actually vanished?

Second, the state itself became complicit in the failure. The crypto exchange created in the High-Tech Park was not a private garage project — it was a flagship, a showcase of the regime. Today, this "showcase" is broken. Lukashenka himself admits: people’s money is disappearing, the exchange is not fulfilling its obligations, inspections reveal violations. But who is responsible? No one. The leaders remain free, and the blame is once again placed on the people.

Third, instead of honestly admitting mistakes and creating transparent rules, the authorities respond with threats and repression. We hear from Lukashenka: "Hang, shoot, imprison". That is his entire strategy. Where reforms, laws, and independent courts are needed — he offers fear and prisons. But fear will not return people’s money. Prisons will not restore trust in the state.

Fourth, the crypto market collapsed not only because of internal mistakes. Belarus’s external isolation plays a role. Sanctions, international isolation, toxic reputation — all this makes it impossible to work normally with foreign exchanges and investors. Today, no one wants to do business with a regime known only for repression and fraud. Therefore, funds deposited on foreign platforms are blocked, and Belarusian investors are left with nothing.

And the overall picture of decline is clear:

• startups move abroad,

• IT specialists flee to Vilnius and Warsaw,

• trust in the High-Tech Park and the "digital economy" is destroyed,

• people lose money, while the regime pretends to "look for the guilty".

But the main culprit is right in front of us: Lukashenka himself. He wanted to show the world that Belarus is a cryptocurrency oasis, that we have progressive laws. But any project launched without freedom, without independent courts, and without accountability of the authorities is doomed to fail.

And here is the result: instead of a thriving market, we have another story of corruption, impunity, and lost opportunities. Belarus could have become a regional leader in blockchain, attracting billions in investment, providing jobs for thousands of specialists, keeping talent in the country. But Lukashenka destroyed all of it.

This is another lesson for us: no "top-down innovation" will save the country if the system itself does not change. A digital economy is impossible without freedom, the rule of law, and independent courts. Cryptocurrency is a symbol of decentralization, trust, and openness. In Belarus, all of this turned out to be incompatible with dictatorship.

The decline of the crypto market in Belarus is merely a reflection of the decline of Lukashenka’s governing model. Where there is no freedom — there is no future. Where fear reigns — there are no innovations. Where the authorities talk about "hangings and shootings" instead of honest dialogue — trust will never exist.

But we have a chance. The Belarus of the future can regain its place on the map of the digital economy. For this, we need not imitation reforms, but real change. We need a new government accountable to citizens, not hiding behind threats. We need an independent judiciary to protect investors. We need free people who will build a 21st-century economy without dictatorship and fear.

Belarus can still become a country of opportunities. But only without Lukashenka.

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