The Price of Silence: Preventing a Catastrophe

Premiere of the Third Episode of the NAM Documentary "Belarus in the Grip of War"

In the first episode of our investigation, "Entering the Kremlin’s Orbit: Militarization and Integration", we detailed how Belarus under Lukashenko is systematically being turned into a key military springboard for the Russian Federation. We traced changes in legislation, the strengthening of military potential, the creation of a people’s militia, and the unprecedented deepening of military cooperation with Russia, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.

In the second episode, "Transformation of Society: Preparing for War at All Levels", we saw how this preparation penetrates the very fabric of Belarusian society: the economy is being reoriented toward military lines, the information space is subordinated to propaganda, and education and healthcare are being militarized. Borders are being strengthened, and the "Khrenin Line" is being established, while civil society faces unprecedented repression.

Unfortunately, history knows many lessons about missed opportunities and underestimating threats. In recent history, we again observe a similar pattern. The situation with the growth of Belarus’s trade with the European Union in 2021, against the backdrop of ongoing integration into Russia’s orbit, revealed the strategic shortsightedness of the West. Slow and reactive sanctions, in conditions where Russia and Belarus were proactively establishing bypass schemes and creating parallel economic structures, failed to undermine the resilience of the military-oriented economies of Belarus and Russia. This is an important takeaway for the future: without systemic, proactive, and comprehensive sanction pressure, aggressors will adapt.

In the third episode of our documentary, we detailed our recommendations for Western partners on the necessary actions regarding the Lukashenko regime, aimed at preventing Belarus from participating directly in the war. Now, with Belarus having reached a high level of readiness to enter the conflict, the situation has become critical. The Lukashenko regime is not merely in a state of heightened combat readiness — it is psychologically, ideologically, and materially prepared for active participation in the conflict.

This means that the threat hangs over every home, over every family in Belarus. The window of opportunity to prevent a full-scale war is not just shrinking—it is rapidly closing. Time is running out.

The film is based on the analytical report of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM): "Systematic Preparation by the Lukashenko Regime for Possible Entry into the War  on Russia’s Side and Recommendations for Preventing This Scenario".

Watch the third episode of the NAM documentary "Belarus in the Grip of War", share it with your friends and family if it is safe for you to do so, and support the NAM team with donations so that we can continue to tell the truth about the situation in Belarus and fight for a free, democratic, and peaceful Belarus.

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