The release of political prisoners in Belarus is not a result of concessions from the West, but of principled pressure. This pressure must not be weakened
Original article: ipg-journal.io
Four years have passed since the Lukashenko regime falsified the presidential elections in Belarus. The regime has held on to power, the mass repressions and terror it unleashed have stifled any significant civil activity in the country, democratic forces are in exile, and the regime's complicity in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia has fundamentally called into question the existence of Belarus as an independent state, the prospects of which the West views more and more pessimistically.
Against this background, the voices of "pragmatists" and "realists" are increasingly beginning to be heard, proposing to look at the situation in Belarus and build an attitude towards it (and towards the Lukashenko’s regime, which de facto holds power in the country) from the point of view of Realpolitik.
The most notable in this sense was the former speaker of the Coordination Council, Andrei Yahorau, who during the third conference «New Belarus» literally stated the following: "I would recognize the legitimacy in a certain sense of what is happening in Belarus. I would exchange the presence of, for example, European ambassadors in Belarus if this allows for the release of political prisoners en masse and moves the situation in Belarus towards a more favourable one for the activities of civil society".
He later developed his proposal in the article "Time to change strategy», in which he claims that the strategy of pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime has not brought results, and suggests «abandoning irreconcilable conditions" in Western relations with the regime, which, in his opinion, can provide a number of tools for the release of Belarusian political prisoners.
My response to these proposals with an analysis of Andrei Yahorau’s article can be found on the website of the National Anti-Crisis Management. Here are the key points.
The restoration of Western relations with the Lukashenko's regime automatically calls into question his responsibility for the crimes committed
Firstly, the restoration of Western relations with the Lukashenko's regime automatically calls into question his responsibility for the crimes committed: mass crimes against humanity against Belarusians, the victims of which were hundreds of thousands of people, the crime of aggression against Ukraine, which is the provision of the territory of Belarus at the disposal of Russia to commit an act of aggression against Ukraine, and a war crime, which is the deportation of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus. Andrei Yahorau ignores this fact, but in fact his proposal means that Lukashenko will not be held accountable for committing the most serious crimes in the understanding of international law.
Secondly, by all indications, the Lukashenka regime is not just not moving towards "liberalization", it is actively transforming from authoritarian to totalitarian, where mass repression is the basis of its existence and power. To recognize the legitimacy of what is happening in Belarus, to send ambassadors, to lift sanctions, to refuse to hold Lukashenko accountable means to return his subjectivity and resources, as well as to agree that he will use them to build totalitarianism. And not just to agree, but to contribute to this.
This is what a "pragmatic" approach to the West's strategy towards the Lukashenko’s regime really means. Although this is not even about strategy, but about tactics — to recognize the status quo and let the situation take its course. Strategically, this is the way to agree and encourage the functioning of a totalitarian dictatorship in Europe, ignoring mass repression and terror in return for periodic shuffling of political prisoners by the Lukashenko's regime, for which these are not real people, but a deck of several thousand playing cards.
In July alone, at least 170 people were convicted in criminal political cases
Perhaps the recent "pardon" of 30 political prisoners by the Lukashenko's regime is the main news in the Belarusian information field. I deliberately put this term in quotation marks, since it is incorrect to apply it to the release of people illegally convicted of politically motivated sentences who did not commit any real crimes. As well as calling it an "act of humanism".
Of course, the fact that 30 people have escaped from the hell of Lukashenko's prisons is good news. Nevertheless, when we look at the situation in the complex, there are always facts that cannot be ignored. So, in July alone, at least 170 people were convicted in criminal political cases. In total, since the beginning of the 2020 presidential campaign, more than 19 thousand criminal cases of the so — called extremist orientation have been initiated.
On August 21-23, after the "pardon", human rights defenders recognized 31 more people as political prisoners. As of August 26, the number of political prisoners in Belarus is 1,372 people.
At the end of July, the study "Barometer of Repression" was presented, according to which the level of repression in Belarus is not just not decreasing, but is breaking records in many indicators. Including the number of confessions of political prisoners — during the reporting period, this figure increased by 80 (!) percent. At the same time, the authors of the study emphasize that almost all the digital characteristics of repression contained in it are minimal indicators. In reality, they will be significantly higher.
It is also a fact that the so-called pardon took place precisely against the background of increasing, not weakening, pressure on the Lukashenko's regime. Let me remind you that a new European Union sanctions package was adopted on June 29. Should the subsequent "pardon" of political prisoners be considered a coincidence?
Hardly. And considering that Lukashenko received absolutely nothing in return for this, which, for example, Andrei Yahorau writes about, we can conclude that the release of some political prisoners is the result not of concessions from the West, but of principled pressure.
At the same time, almost 1,400 officially recognized political prisoners remain in the regime's prisons. Although many politically motivated convicts are not formalized in this status, many refuse it, fearing the consequences in the form of tougher conditions in places of detention. According to human rights activists, the actual number of political prisoners may be two or three times higher. And this number is not decreasing, but growing. The repressions are not stopping, but are intensifying. And in place of the "pardoned" political prisoners, the regime throws new ones behind bars.
Abandoning the principled position towards the Lukashenko's regime, softening it, and easing pressure will only strengthen his confidence in his own impunity
The second conclusion follows from this: abandoning the principled position towards the Lukashenko’s regime, softening it, easing pressure will only strengthen his confidence in his own impunity.
Fortunately, so far we see that our Western and European partners are not ready to agree with this. In its statement in connection with the release of some political prisoners, the European External Relations Service maintains a principled position: "The EU continues to call on the Belarusian authorities to immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners".
This, I am convinced, should be our common response to the proposals of "pragmatists" and "realists" on the need to change the strategy towards recognizing legitimacy and abandoning pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime, which has committed and continues to commit numerous crimes.
It is time not to change, but to finally adopt a principled strategy for Belarus. A strategy based on international law, on the principle of the inevitability of responsibility for the crimes committed. Aimed at a complete stop to repression and the release of all political prisoners without exception. The purpose of which is the return of civil rights and freedoms to Belarus, ensuring its independence and democratic future, and not the transition into the fourth decade of the preservation of the criminal dictatorship of Lukashenko, which is close to being finalized into a totalitarian one.
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