US Intelligence Has Reported: It's Time to Remove Lukashenko
- Pavel Latushka
- Feb 4
- 8 min read
In the life of any dictatorship, sooner or later a moment comes when all the decorations it hides behind wear out so much that they begin to fall apart before our eyes. For Belarus, this moment has arrived now. And if anyone still harbors illusions that Lukashenka has everything under control, I recommend carefully studying the data from the US intelligence briefing presented to Congress on January 28, 2026.
This report is not just an analytical note. It is a factual acknowledgment of the finale of that "multi-vector policy" that Alexander Lukashenko tried to sell to society and external players for decades. We are dealing with the final confirmation that practically nothing remains of Belarus's sovereignty, and the person who calls himself president of our country has turned into the main threat to its existence.
Military Incorporation: US Intelligence Diagnosis
The main conclusion of the briefing sounds like a diagnosis: Belarus now needs to be viewed not as an ally with its own position, but as a direct appendage of the Russian military machine. If by Belarus we are forced to understand Lukashenka's regime, then in simple words the conclusions of US intelligence sound like this: Lukashenka is no longer an agent. And all his attempts to demonstrate otherwise are shattered by facts.
Nuclear Trap and Loss of Control
The briefing data reveals the mechanism of what actually happened under the guise of "return of nuclear status." Lukashenka's propaganda tries to feed us the image of a "nuclear power" that can now supposedly dictate terms to neighbors. But the reality recorded by intelligence is quite different.
Lukashenka did not receive a "nuclear button." Lukashenka received the status of the Kremlin's "nuclear scarecrow." But he scares not so much the West as he puts the lives of millions of Belarusians at risk. To understand why this is a catastrophe for each of us, we need to realize several facts:
Imitation of Subjectivity. Training Belarusian crews to work with 9M723 missiles of the Iskander-M system is an imitation that propaganda presents as "acquiring a nuclear shield." According to intelligence data, the launch keys and the warheads themselves remain under the complete control of the Russian Ministry of Defense. This means that the decision to launch will be made in Moscow. Belarus here is not a subject, but simply a geographical platform. We are being used as a "remote launch pad." And at the same time, we, not the Kremlin, will be responsible for its actions.
Belarus as a "Lightning Rod." Why does Moscow need to place missiles specifically on our territory? To transfer the point of retaliatory strike from its territory to ours. US intelligence clearly indicates that this "forward bridgehead" was created for nuclear blackmail. In the event of any escalation provoked by Moscow, the first — preemptive or retaliatory — NATO strike will not hit Moscow, but Belarus. At those points where the Iskanders are stationed. Lukashenka voluntarily turned our country into a "nuclear lightning rod," protecting the neighbor's territory.
Targets Throughout the Country. Now every major transport hub, military town, and regional center of Belarus has been entered into the flight missions of Western missiles as a priority target. The presence of nuclear weapons on the territory automatically makes it a place of guaranteed destruction in the event of any conflict. This is not a "shield." This is a huge neon pointer for enemy missiles: "Strike here."
Loss of Control Over the Sky
Alexander Lukashenka has exploited the slogan for decades: "I guarantee you peaceful skies." Intelligence data proves that he simply handed over the keys to our airspace to Russia, committing an act of quiet capitulation.
Liquidation of Air Defense as a National Institution. As an independent branch of the armed forces, Belarus's air defense de facto no longer exists. Our radars and anti-aircraft systems are now just "sensors" in someone else's command and staff vertical. Decisions about whom to shoot down are made not in Minsk, but at the headquarters of Russia's Western Military District.
Belarus as a "Thoroughfare." Now Russian aviation can use our space as it pleases, without asking permission. This turns us into accomplices of any aggression automatically. If a missile flies from our sky — we answer, although the order was given by some general in Moscow.
Vulnerability of the Population. In the event of a conflict, the Russian control system will cover its strategic objects, while Belarusian cities will remain "expendable material." Lukashenka, who supposedly guaranteed Belarusians "peaceful skies," simply handed over the keys to our airspace and entrusted our security to those who view Belarus's territory exclusively as a "buffer zone" that is not worth sparing.
Belarusian Army as Errand Boys
US intelligence in its briefing of January 28, 2026, gives a depressing but truthful assessment of the state of our Armed Forces. For the Kremlin, the Belarusian army is no longer an independent force capable of solving national tasks. Our personnel are classified as "auxiliary support resource."
What does this mean in the language of real war? It means that Lukashenka has reduced the Belarusian officer, the career military man, to the level of an employee of a private security company attached to the Russian army.
"Human Shield" and Rear Guard Duty. While Russian units are preparing for offensive operations, regrouping and striking, Belarusian military personnel have been assigned a humiliating role: guarding their warehouses, clearing their roads, providing their logistics and covering their backs. We are being used as "technical staff" who should free the hands of Russian soldiers for real combat operations.
Expendable Material for Others' Goals. In the strategy described by US intelligence, the Belarusian army is just a tool for creating "strategic depth." This means that in the event of a full-scale conflict, the first to come under attack will be precisely the Belarusian units that "prop up" Russian garrisons. Officers who have studied tactics and strategy for years are today forced to perform the role of "plugs" on communications that they don't even control.
Humiliation of Military Honor. The army has always valued agency — the right to give orders on one's own land. Today, however, any Russian lieutenant colonel on our territory has more weight than a Belarusian general. Lukashenka deprived the army of its main meaning — protecting the state, turning it into a free service for the neighbor.
Essentially, under the guise of "allied duty," the professional degradation of our Armed Forces is taking place. Officers have been deprived of the right to decide where and why their equipment goes, and in whose interests their soldiers stand guard. Lukashenka sold not only our factories and borders, he has already sold the very essence of officer honor, making the army a free appendage to the Russian defense order.
Do they understand this at the General Staff? Certainly. Do they see this in the units? Every day. An army that has been turned into servants is an army that has no future under this regime.
All this is not just separate military concessions. This is a systemic process. When you hand over the keys to the sky, turn the army into servants and place someone else's nuclear missiles on your land that you don't control, you cease to be the head of state.
In fact, we are witnessing how, under Alexander Lukashenka's rule, the most massive surrender of national interests in our history is taking place. Today he is no longer a "guarantor of independence," as propaganda claims. Lukashenka has turned into the chairman of a liquidation commission whose task is to methodically formalize the transfer of the remnants of Belarusian sovereignty in exchange for personal security and an extra month in power. But the tragedy of the dictator is that by selling the country piece by piece, he is not buying himself peace, but only plunging deeper into conspiracy theories.
Paranoia Within the System: Who Controls the Regime?
The realization that the real levers of control over the country and even his own army are slipping from his hands generates the deepest paranoia in Lukashenka. After the Maduro case, he finally lost his bearings — now he no longer knows whether he can trust even anyone in his closest circle.
We see clear signs of managerial chaos: he is convulsively trying to demonstrate that he is still "number one," conducting military exercises and inspections bypassing Defense Minister Khrenin. This is not just bravado — this is the fear of a person who suspects his generals of loyalty to another center of power.
The retreat into the shadows of the KGB chief is also indicative. Tertel, who until recently appeared actively in public, is again almost invisible. Could it be that it is the KGB, not the foreign ministry, that today is the real channel of communication between the regime and the outside world, including the US? And if so, who should Lukashenka suspect most of all of potential betrayal, as was the case with Maduro? Lukashenka always believed that the KGB was his support, but does he still think so? In any case, when a dictator starts playing "hide and seek" with his key security officials, it means the system has entered a stage of internal disintegration.
The Mistake of 2020 and the New Elite Consensus
I venture to assume that today a new consensus is maturing in the ranks of Belarusian elites that fundamentally differs from the situation in 2020. At that time, a significant part of the nomenklatura and security forces bet on supporting Lukashenka, believing that he was capable of guaranteeing the preservation of statehood.
But what did they see in the end? What US intelligence has now openly reported. Lukashenka has become the main factor in the liquidation of our sovereignty.
I think I won't be wrong if I say that even the Spitz Umka no longer believes that Lukashenka is the guarantor of Belarus's security and independence. In the elites, an understanding is surely maturing: Lukashenka is incapable of protecting the country from absorption because he himself is an instrument of this process. Most likely, if any new critical situation arises, he will no longer receive elite support. On the contrary, they will perceive it as a window of opportunity and a chance to correct their mistake of 2020 — a mistake whose price is obvious to everyone today.
Round Table — Path to Saving State Agency
Let's speak directly: Lukashenka is no longer a serious player and any real subject of politics for the West. And in such a state, the regime will not be able to agree with the West on any serious, strategic things, on any "big deals." Without a radical change in policy, without changing the situation with the agency of Belarusian authorities, any dialogue between the West and Minsk simply makes no sense.
And if the restoration of our state's agency does not begin as soon as possible, Lukashenka will simply destroy it completely. This is precisely why the Round Table option we propose is the best and most workable solution to the situation. The sooner dialogue begins between democratic forces, civil society, and those people in the system who realize the scale of the crisis, the greater the chances of pulling Belarus out of this dead end.
The choice between saving the state and loyalty to its liquidator will have to be made very soon. The US intelligence data, announced publicly — this is a very serious and alarming wake-up call. Time is running out. Time to act.
Long Live Belarus!
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