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What is Lukashenko planning?

Yury Gubarevich, responsible for regional development in the NAM, in an interview with the Ukrainian channel "Now"

Yury Gubarevich
Yury Gubarevich Photo: The NAM-media

An attack on Ukraine from Belarus has de facto already happened, albeit without the participation of the Belarusian military. Since February 24, 2022, the territory of the country has been made available for the "passage" of Russian troops and their deployment, as well as for strikes on Ukrainian cities.

Still, the direct involvement of the regime's army in the war is still a painful issue for Lukashenko. The dictator understands that the inclusion of the regime's armed forces in the war can lead to destabilization of the situation inside the state.

Belarusian society has a completely different attitude to the events in Ukraine than Russian society. The Kremlin propaganda, although it has a great influence on the Belarusians and is almost unlimited, has failed to convince them that this war is directly related to Belarus and lies in its interests.

This factor restrains Lukashenko, but apart from the mood of the Belarusians, there is also the "mood" of Putin, who, having Lukashenko as his only ally and generously supporting him financially, may eventually demand something in return. Something more than infrastructure for the Russian military, their material and ammunition supply.

It may come down to the full participation of Lukashenko's army in the war — on an equal footing with the Russian army. This still cannot be ruled out — one should be prepared for this.


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