Who is more independent today — Belarus or Azerbaijan?
- Admin of the NAM
- Jul 6
- 4 min read
Peace, freedom, and independence are the greatest values that must be cherished and protected. This is what Lukashenko declared on July 3 during a ceremony at the “Mound of Glory” memorial complex. But if we take a closer look, he has failed to defend a single one of these values. The remnants of freedom were trampled by the boots of his enforcers in 2020, peace was buried when he agreed to allow Russian troops to enter Ukraine, and as for the last of these values, independence, we will examine it in more detail.
Today, as the dictator celebrates "independence", I suggest we talk not about dates and holidays, but about the real independence of our country. To do this, let’s compare Belarus with Azerbaijan — a country which, despite its authoritarian regime, conducts an independent policy.
Belarus and Russia: Complete Dependence
Under Lukashenko, Belarus is the most loyal ally of the Kremlin among all former Soviet republics.
Russian troops are stationed on our territory — from military bases to missile systems.
Our budget, economy, and energy supply depend on Russian subsidies and loans. In just the past couple of years, Moscow has forgiven or postponed billions in Minsk’s debt.
In politics, Lukashenko practically mirrors Moscow’s course — whether it’s domestic repression or participation in aggressive actions against Ukraine.
Any movement toward autonomy is harshly suppressed: freedom of speech is blocked, independent media have been destroyed, and anyone opposing Russia is labeled an enemy of the regime.
Real independence? Nowhere in sight.
Azerbaijan and Russia: A Struggle for Sovereignty
Azerbaijan is also not a democracy. It is a strict autocracy. But there is one important distinction—Baku pursues an independent foreign policy.
What happened in recent months?
Russian air defenses shot down an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft that crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 24, 2024. Russian authorities refused to offer proper apologies or hold those responsible accountable, instead attempting to obstruct the investigation and cover up the truth.
In response, Azerbaijan shut down the Russian media outlet Sputnik — Moscow’s largest propaganda tool.
Offices of Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia’s key soft power institution, were closed.
Azerbaijan accused the FSB of torturing and detaining Azerbaijani citizens on Russian territory. This amounts to an open conflict between the two countries.
In the military sphere, Baku has turned away from traditional Russian weapons, opting to purchase modern air defense systems and armaments from Israel, Turkey, and other countries, thus reducing its dependence on the Kremlin.
For the first time in years, we are seeing open confrontation between Russia and a former ally that is asserting its sovereignty and demanding respect.
What Does This Mean?
Azerbaijan is a dictatorship, yes. But it is a dictatorship that is not afraid to say "no" to the Kremlin when doing so is in its national interest.
Belarus is a dictatorship entirely dependent on Russia and unable to take even symbolic steps toward independence.
Lukashenko lacks both the resources and the will to pursue an autonomous policy: Belarus’s economy and security depend on Russia, which means decisions are made there — in the Kremlin.
Political and Military Consequences
Belarus is a Russian military base used for the invasion of Ukraine.
Azerbaijan is a country that opposes Russian interests in the region and builds alliances with Turkey and the West.
This is a key difference — one that highlights the level of real independence.
National Language as a Pillar of Sovereignty and Identity
In Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani language has not only been preserved but actively developed: it is the language of education, culture, official documents, and daily communication.
The President speaks his native language fluently, showing respect for national tradition and strengthening the connection between the government and the people. This is more than symbolism — the language unites society, fosters pride, and builds cohesion, which is especially vital amid global challenges.
Azerbaijan, despite its complex geopolitical history, has built a language policy that emphasizes its sovereignty and cultural distinctiveness.
In contrast, under the Lukashenko regime, the Belarusian language has been sidelined. Although officially recognized as a state language, it is in reality marginalized from public life: in schools, media, and government institutions, Russian dominates, while Belarusian is often portrayed as “rural” or secondary.
Lukashenko himself, who presents himself as a defender of independence, does not speak Belarusian and uses only Russian in public, highlighting his disconnection from national roots. This policy not only weakens cultural identity but also undermines the proclaimed independence: a country in which its native language is marginalized, and the leader ignores it, loses a vital part of its sovereignty.
Lukashenko’s illusion of "stability" is built on cultural assimilation, not on the strengthening of national spirit, making his version of independence fragile and subject to external influence.
Conclusion
Azerbaijan is an autocracy, but one that controls its foreign policy and does not allow the Kremlin to dictate terms.
Belarus is a regime that does not even pretend to be independent. It is a Kremlin satellite, entirely subject to its will.
What Does This Mean for Belarus?
True independence is impossible without an autonomous policy, without the native language, without control over the economy, and without limiting the influence of neighboring powers over our country.
As long as Lukashenko is in power, Belarus will remain a vassal, a tool for the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions. Azerbaijan has shown that even under dictatorship, it is possible to play one’s own game — the question is one of will and strategy.
We do not see a celebration of real independence in Belarus today. Today is a time to reflect on why we are trailing even Azerbaijan when it comes to the freedom to choose our own path of development.
Domestic Politics
Azerbaijan cannot today serve as a model for the democratic movement in Belarus, but its independent foreign policy toward Russia certainly does not serve as a model for the autocrat and Kremlin vassal Lukashenko either.
The views expressed in this material should not necessarily be interpreted as the official position of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus.
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