18.11.2024
Speech by Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management
At the Gazeta Wyborcza Conference as part of the discussion "After the U.S. Elections: The Future of European Security and Transatlantic Cooperation", Panel Discussion Topic: "Stopping the Twilight of Democracy. US Elections and Human Rights Around the World"
We do not want to be the dessert at Putin's dinner table, because right now everyone is talking about Ukraine, and that is obviously important, but no one is mentioning Belarus.It seems that everyone forgets that Belarus shares borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine. That’s over 2,000 kilometers of border. Solving the problem of Russia’s war against Ukraine without considering the situation in Belarus does not mean solving the security problem for Poland and the whole Europe.
There is still no strategy for Belarus, and there is not even an intention to create one. A strategy is needed, and it must be comprehensive. To understand what it should be based on, we must distinguish Belarusian society from Russian society. According to sociological analyses, 65% of Belarusians want to live in a democracy, and 97% want an independent Belarus. In contrast, most Russians support the war, while the majority of Belarusians do not. Most Belarusians do not support Lukashenko, while most Russians support Putin.
If the right strategy for Belarus and Belarusian society is not created, in a few years we may see soldiers of Belarusian origin, but now in Russian uniform, on the borders of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, ready to attack the borders of the European Union.
When democracy ends, war begins. The Belarusian people are a people with democratic mentality. We have seen this many times, and it became absolutely clear in 2020. The majority of Belarusians want democracy and support democratic changes in the country.
But, indeed, we have not yet succeeded in establishing democracy. We must admit that we underestimated dictator Lukashenko and his regime, and what they are ready to do to stay in power: violence, murders, torture, mass repression, and crimes against humanity. Hundreds of thousands of crimes. Dozens of people were killed. Thousands of political prisoners. Tens of thousands of politically motivated criminal cases. The most massive repression in Europe in the last fifty years. The practical transformation of Lukashenko’s regime into a totalitarian one. A hybrid war against the EU. And a full-scale war against Ukraine, in which Lukashenko's regime participated and continues to participate.
Recognizing that the responsibility for the future of Belarus lies with Belarusian society, it is also important to understand: what were the mistakes made by our Western partners? The mistake was that no one wanted to see where things were going. This is a huge strategic mistake that the West, unfortunately, continues to make today. The mistake is thinking that authoritarian, dictatorial regimes can undergo an evolutionary transformation. No, they seek totalitarianism and war. Because war is the most reliable way to control society.
I can predict that a possible ceasefire in the war will happen. Russian and Lukashenko's propaganda will present it as their victory, which will form the belief in Russian society that force can make the West retreat. What will happen next? This will motivate Russian society to start aggression against Ukraine again and destabilize the West. In this situation, Belarus plays the role of a strategic balcony. But Belarus is not only Lukashenko, there is also the Belarusian people, the majority of whom are against the war.
Belarusians are against it. Even at the peak of mass repressions, when the war between Russia and Lukashenko’s regime against Ukraine began, Belarusians went out to protest. Many Belarusians joined the ranks of volunteers to fight on the side of Ukraine. Belarusians were engaged in partisan activities, preventing the movement of Russian troops by rail. They disabled the Russian A-50 long-range radar aircraft that directed airstrikes on Ukraine.
But Belarusians cannot fight alone. And they certainly cannot do it when the West continues to behave indecisively. Belarusians have never asked for military help. Military assistance is necessary for Ukraine, and in much greater quantities and quality than it is currently being provided.
We have called for shock sanctions, urged not to delay them, called for harmonizing sanctions against Lukashenko’s regime and Russia for the war. And we have called for the use of legal, judicial tools — international criminal responsibility for dictator Lukashenko and his inner circle for the crimes they commit.
For decades, the West has been observing the transformation of Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus. The West was fooled by his lies and cosmetic measures, false "thaws." Today, we see where this has led. And I urge you — do not buy into his lies again. This regime must be liquidated.
When democracy ends, war begins. A democratic Belarus, a Belarus without Lukashenko, can in no way represent a danger to Ukraine or Europe.
Lukashenko’s regime is a permanent threat to European security. And not only for Europe — because today, Belarus not only hosts military facilities but also Russian nuclear weapons. This is a fact. But the key to security is also in Belarus. In a democratic Belarus.
Until there is dictatorship in Belarus and Belarus remains in Russia’s "sphere of influence," the West will remain in danger. In 2025, Lukashenko’s regime and Russia plan to hold the largest joint military exercises, “Zapad — 2025.” And I think it is unnecessary to remind you what their joint exercises in February 2022 led to.
Today we see what huge resources neighboring countries, including Poland, are forced to invest in border security, internal security, and protection from the aggression of Lukashenko’s regime. Yes, in the current situation, this is already an absolute necessity.
At the same time, the security strategy will not be enough if it does not simultaneously invest in supporting Belarusian society. The majority of which is against aggression. But it cannot be left to fight alone against Lukashenko’s regime and Russia.
Therefore, today, when talking about the security of Europe and the West, I am sure that we must speak about a comprehensive strategy, which should include active work with Belarusian society. This includes supporting independent media, recognizing and supporting alternative governing institutions (the United Transitional Cabinet, the Coordination Council), holding the dictator accountable to motivate society, and also splitting the elites. A very important step was the referral made by Lithuania to the International Criminal Court regarding transboundary crimes committed by Lukashenko’s regime. We expect support for this step and similar steps from the Polish and other European governments.
And we must clearly set the goals of the strategy. One of the most important strategic goals to achieve is a democratic Belarus outside Russia’s sphere of influence, as an integral part of the European community and the regional security system.
To do this, we must finally be ready to admit: democratization of Belarus means the liquidation of Lukashenko’s regime. This must no longer be the "red line." This “red line” is the result of a false strategy that dominated in Western politics for a long time.
Tomorrow, the fate of Ukraine, Europe, and Belarus will be decided. Will Belarus be at the negotiating table? And who will represent the country — Lukashenko or the democratic forces of Belarus? Who represents Belarusian society? Certainly not Lukashenko.
We insist that the voice of the democratic majority of Belarusians be heard at the negotiating table. We are ready to voice it. Are we going to be given a seat at the negotiating table? So far, no one is even ready to listen to our position. I hope they will hear me today.
It is time to correct the mistakes. It is time for a proactive, not reactive, strategy. Otherwise, there will be war at the borders of the European Union.
Thank you for your attention.
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