Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Every misfortune and tragedy has its roots in specific causes. The widespread destruction and infrastructure damage in Belarusian towns on July 14th, including the power outages affecting most of the southwestern Homiel region, were undoubtedly caused by the recent natural disaster. However, the inability to quickly restore power and meet people's basic needs stems directly from Lukashenko's decision to allow Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory. While it might not seem immediately obvious, the connection is quite direct. Before the invasion, the Mazyr region could receive electricity from both Belarusian and Ukrainian power lines. For instance, the power grid between Mazyr and Homiel was looped through Ukraine. After Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine from Belarus, Ukrainian authorities understandably disconnected the Homiel-Chernigov line. This means the Homiel region currently lacks a vital backup power source, a necessity in such situations. The recent storm caused power line supports to collapse, cutting off electricity across the region. Local residents and businesses were left waiting for repairs But power engineers cannot handle such extensive repairs alone; a specialized organization is required. This organization was contacted immediately, but bureaucratic hurdles prevented them from getting to work for half a day. No one was willing to bypass the numerous regulations and approvals required, even to expedite repairs and address the emergency swiftly. Day after day, Lukashenko's propaganda machine tells Belarusians that without a firm hand, without an iron fist, it's impossible to mobilize society and the government to effectively address urgent problems. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. For several days now, in the wake of the disaster that struck Belarus last Sunday, several major cities in the Homiel region have been left without electricity, water, fuel, or food. In war-torn Ukraine, facing constant attacks from drones and missiles, power is restored within 24 hours. Yet, in peaceful Belarus, under Lukashenko's dictatorship, the 100,000 residents of Mazyr have been without electricity for more than two days. And this is despite the fact that the dictator himself supposedly took personal control of the situation. He may have taken control, but he has not provided tangible assistance. The people have been left to fend for themselves.

On July 15th in Warsaw, the United Transitional Cabinet (UTC) held a meeting to discuss plans and Strategy for 2025. Topics included: action plans for the 2025 presidential elections, preparation for the "New Belarus" conference, support for independent media outlets like Belsat TV, and attitudes regarding Lukashenko's upcoming "election." The meeting was attended by UTC head Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and UTC representatives including Pavel Latushka (responsible for the transit of power) along with his deputies Artsiom Praskalovich and Artsiom Brukhan; Valer Sahashchyk (responsible for defense and national security); Alina Koushyk ( responsible for national revival) and her deputy Pavel Barkouski; Volha Harbunova (responsible for social policy); Uladzimir Astapenka (Acting representative of Foreign Affairs), as well as Valer Mackevich, head of the Cabinet Office. According to the UTC, during Tsikhanouskaya's visit to Poland, she had meetings planned with "cultural figures, representatives of Belarusian business, diplomats, former political prisoners, and representatives of humanitarian aid initiatives for refugees," as well as officials from the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration. Tsikhanouskaya thanked the Polish authorities "for their determination, especially regarding the release of political prisoners." She and other democratic leaders welcomed the recent release in Belarus of "several political prisoners, in particular Ryhor Kastusiou," while continuing to demand "the release of everyone, first of all those in critical health." The politician expressed hope that following the meeting at the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration, the working group on legalization matters for Belarusians would persist in efforts to "find reasonable solutions so Belarusians are not restricted when crossing the border, and sanctions target Lukashenko's regime rather than ordinary citizens." Discussions with Polish officials were also focused on simplifying visa issuance and bank account opening for Belarusians.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Why does Lukashenko's regime continue to repress doctors and reduce healthcare for the public to a basic level? The medical community in Belarus faced unprecedented pressure in 2020. Doctors were among the first to demonstrate their civic position. They provided care to the wounded on the streets and in hospitals, and demanded access to detainees in detention centers. They openly protested the violence against civilians in the country. As a result, many were fired and imprisoned, while some were forced to leave the country. According to the Medical Solidarity Foundation, White Coats, and ZUBR, since August 2020, 248 medical workers have been detained and jailed. These figures are likely incomplete, but they show a large number of medical staff who’d been detained. Along with detention, doctors face intimidation, blackmail, dismissals based on "blacklists", coercion to join pro-government unions, and more. Repression in healthcare is now permanent and total, impacting almost every medical worker. It seems a doctor, whose profession is to rescue and naturally opposes murder and violence, is an enemy of the state? This is absurd. But the dictator’s principle of “sometimes not caring about laws” in relation to doctors was transformed into the principle of “provide cure only to those who we allow.” All this is despite 4,943 doctor vacancies and 4,165 nurse vacancies as of July 2024. The shortage grows every month. Things are getting worse, but Lukashenko pretends not to notice, temporarily silencing the problem. Why temporarily? Because "medical help from Chinese traditional medicine", already dubious to Belarusians but desired by the Lukashenkos, is approaching. Instead of professional care, Lukashenko plans to force Belarusians into traditional Chinese methods and remedies.

Pavel Latushka at the "TUTAKA" Festival "A person lives while they dream. I think all the Belarusians who still dream have gathered here today. Our main dream is to regain Belarus. I truly dream of returning home. But dreaming alone is not enough. We must act! Every single day!" said Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, during his opening remarks at the "TUTAKA" festival in Padlassie. From July 12-14, near Bialystok and right on the border between Poland and Belarus, the "TUTAKA" cultural festival took place, traditionally bringing together Belarusians from all around Europe and representing the best and brightest of today's independent Belarusian culture all in one place. The festival not only showcased the richness and diversity of modern Belarusian art, music and performance, but also served as an important gathering for all those working to preserve and develop the culture despite forced emigration. "I'm thrilled to see the Belarusian minority in Poland and members of the Belarusian diaspora here today too. Unfortunately, this diaspora exists because we were deported from our homeland, but it's so important we stick together. United we are strong," said Pavel Latushka, addressing the festival participants. The festival was a true celebration for anyone who appreciates and supports Belarusian traditions, arts and music. Over three days, guests were treated to a diverse lineup including concerts by popular Belarusian musicians, theatrical productions, literary readings, and exhibitions featuring works by contemporary Belarusian artists. In addition to entertainment, discussion panels were a key part of the festival's program. Pavel Latushka took part in a talk titled "Elections in Belarus 2025: What Happens Next?" which explored strategies around the 2025 election campaign in Belarus. Together with President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Pavel Latushka also met privately with ambassadors and representatives from Poland, France, Sweden, Canada, the Netherlands, the USA, Latvia and more who actively support Belarusians, as well as leaders from the Padlassie Voivodeship. They discussed new ways Belarus' international partners can further aid the Belarusian people and increase pressure on the regime. Festivals like "TUTAKA," along with the thriving Belarusian diaspora community and flourishing culture, are truly inspiring. Latushka closed his remarks declaring: "Unfortunately, the Russian horde currently dominates our homeland. Unfortunately, a terrible regime still grips our motherland. But this horror will disappear. It will not vanish on its own. It will only disappear when we stand united and resolute. We cannot give up. We must keep believing, dreaming, living. Because our beloved Belarus will live on! Long live Belarus!"

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Support for independent media, including Belsat TV, along with strategy regarding Belarus during Poland's upcoming EU presidency were the main topics discussed during a meeting between Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, and representatives of Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Yesterday a meeting with Ambassador Tomasz Chłoń, Poland's representative for combatting international disinformation, was held. Today there was a meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister Marek Prawda. Supporting and preserving the independence of Belsat TV is a priority for Belarusian democratic society. Pavel Latushka noted that Belsat makes significant contributions countering the propaganda of Lukashenko's regime by providing Belarusians with objective, truthful, and honest information about current events, as well as promoting use of the Belarusian language, which Lukashenko actively suppresses. During the meeting with Deputy Foreign Minister Prawda, the importance of a Belarus strategy with Poland playing a special role was discussed. Poland has deep historical and cultural ties with Belarus and the Belarusian people as a neighboring country sharing a border. At the same time, Lukashenko's regime poses threats to Poland's national security and the security of the entire region. It is critical for both Belarusian society and neighboring countries that Belarus becomes an independent, democratic, European nation that won't destabilize the region. Pavel Latushka stated: "It's important we do everything to prevent Belarus from becoming North Korea, to keep borders open so Belarusians can engage with the EU. Yes, unfortunately there is a war ongoing. The problems arising for us Belarusians relate to Lukashenko's support for Russian aggression in Ukraine. The blame for the current situation, including at the Belarusian border, lies with Lukashenko personally and his associates. They support aggression against Ukraine while repressing their own people." Poland's upcoming EU presidency, which starts January 1, 2025, was also discussed. One of the first actions planned is the Tadeusz Kosciuszko Conference in early 2025 at the European Solidarity Center in Gdańsk. Representatives of all EU member states are expected to attend. As planned, this conference will be a major event of Poland's EU presidency. "It's important that during this conference, decisions are made to accelerate change in Belarus. The change Belarusians continue fighting for," Latushka noted.

We are talking about a cell in the literal sense of the word. It’s about 1.5 meters long and 2 meters wide, resembling a rectangular cage with metal bars. There isn’t a chair or even a bench inside. The prison administration forces the women to stand there for the entire duration of their punishment. Sitting is forbidden and will only make their confinement last longer. The cage is located outside, and prisoners can be put there at any time, regardless of the weather. Women are forced to stand there in the rain, scorching sun, or freezing cold, often for up to three or four hours at a time. If a prisoner is held there until nightfall, she risks missing her meal. Kasia Budzko, a former political prisoner who spent two and a half years in a women’s prison for her pro-democracy stance, shared this horrifying reality of a Belarusian prison. There are many punishments designed to humiliate and degrade those imprisoned. One of the most appalling is the confinement of political prisoners in a cage. In Belarus today, it’s easy to end up behind bars. Simply disagreeing with the Lukashenko regime’s ideology is enough. But what will land you in a cage within a cage? Political prisoners who violate any prison rule are placed there. This could be for fighting, or any other “incident.” The definition of “incident” is extremely broad. A woman can be sent to the cage for having a panic attack or for formally refusing a work assignment. According to former political prisoner Daria Chultsova, every woman in the colony knows that any “rudeness” towards the prison administration will get you sent straight to the cage. “Rudeness” can include any expression of personal opinion. It doesn’t even have to be said in a rude or impolite tone. Simply disagreeing with something and offering an explanation is enough. Even something as small as an incorrectly sewn button is enough to get you thrown in a cage. The administration might also send a woman to the cage as a preventative measure, to demonstrate to other prisoners what happens to those who break the rules. In reality, no real reason is needed to put someone in a cage. The prison administration acts with impunity. This is a daily practice where humiliation and human rights violations have become the norm. The cage isn’t just physical violence; it’s psychological torture. The prison administration deliberately creates the most difficult conditions possible for the prisoners. Putting a person in a cage violates both international and national law. According to materials from the human rights center Viasna, this practice violates Part 2 of Article 10 of the Criminal Executive Code of the Republic of Belarus, as well as Rules 39 and 47 of the UN Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners (the Nelson Mandela Rules). The right not to be subjected to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment and the right to humane treatment and respect for the inherent dignity of the human person are being violated. The resilience of Belarusian women is astounding. According to one former political prisoner, she witnessed a woman stage a protest from inside her cage. Another former prisoner shared a story about a young woman who smiled throughout her entire ordeal. We must all show the same tenacity and persistence in fighting for the freedom of every political prisoner. It’s important to remember that there are still over 1,400 officially recognized political prisoners and over 5,000 people imprisoned on politically motivated charges in Belarus. They are all living in inhumane conditions, and every single one of them is fighting for their life. “This is truly horrific news. The fact that Belarusian women are being subjected to such inhumane torture is a blatant violation of international law and the most basic human rights. The world needs to know about the egregious crimes against humanity being committed by the Lukashenko regime, and Lukashenko himself must be held accountable. Our team, the National Anti-Crisis Management, along with our partners, has prepared all the necessary materials to refer the “situation in Belarus” to the International Criminal Court. The basis for this referral is the commission of crimes against humanity by Lukashenko and his accomplices. From May 2020 to May 2023 alone, at least 136,000 Belarusians became victims of crimes against humanity, including murder, enforced disappearances, torture, politically motivated sentences, and more. According to the UN, at least 300,000 Belarusians were forcibly deported from Belarus, primarily to Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. That’s 3.5% of the Belarusian population. At a recent meeting with Lukashenko in Astana at the SCO summit, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres directly expressed to the dictator his principled position on the need to end the repression in Belarus. I implore the foreign ministers of Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, as representatives of the countries most supportive of the Belarusian people, to take a stand, show their will, and refer Lukashenko’s case to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. It’s high time to use every available tool of international and national law to bring this dictator to justice. People of Belarus, we keep fighting together for the freedom of the European Belarusian people. Democracy will not prevail in Belarus until the dictator and his accomplices are held accountable,” emphasized Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management. This material uses data from the Viasna Human Rights Center, whose leader, Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Bialiacki, was sentenced to 10 years in prison and is a political prisoner.

Conference in Warsaw At the Warsaw conference on Eastern Europe, Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, declared, "We need bridges for Belarusians, but walls for the regime." The conference, titled "The Future of Belarus: the Forgotten Front of Russian Expansionism," brought together experts from Belarus, Lithuania, Poland, the United States, and Ukraine to discuss critical challenges facing the region. Pavel Latushka presented stark data on the state of political repression in Belarus, revealing that the number of officially recognized political prisoners has surpassed 1,400. He emphasized that human rights activists estimate the actual number to be significantly higher, potentially three to four times the official figure. Addressing regional security concerns, Pavel Latushka highlighted how Lukashenko continues to systematically dismantle Belarus' sovereignty and independence. He warned that the so-called "integration" with Russia within the Union State framework is reaching a critical juncture, with political and military control over Belarus increasingly shifting into Russian hands. Lukashenko's regime, Latushka asserted, is now entirely reliant on Russian resources for its survival. The head of the NAM also criticized what he perceives as key errors in Western countries' approach to the Lukashenko regime. He argued that the strategy of appeasement, of avoiding actions that might "anger" or pressure Lukashenko, has proven ineffective. This approach, he believes, has led to the current critical situation both within Belarus and along its borders with Ukraine and the EU. Lukashenko has already engaged in most of the very actions the West feared provoking, creating a multitude of threats precisely during the period when he faced minimal pressure. By attempting to avoid "pushing Lukashenko into the arms of Russia," the West has become a passive observer to the ever-tightening embrace between Putin and Lukashenko. During the conference, Pavel Latushka proposed concrete steps to support the Belarusian people: Strengthened visa support for Belarusians to foster stronger ties between Belarusians and Europe and the West; Increased support for independent media and democratic institutions as essential foundations for a future European democratic Belarus; Abandonment of "red lines" regarding Lukashenko given that he has already crossed many such lines, harmonizing sanctions against his regime with those imposed on Russia, issuing an arrest warrant for Lukashenko. In his concluding remarks, Pavel Latushka emphasized, "The majority of Belarusians remain committed to democratic values and oppose the war. Any effective strategy for Belarus must be built upon supporting the Belarusian people and empowering them as agents of change. This necessitates strengthening, not severing, the ties between Belarusians and the West."

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Karanik claims that Belarus ranks 4th or 5th in the world for its doctor-to-population ratio. This is a lie. Recent data reveals a stark decline in the number of doctors in Belarus, plummeting by 7,000 in 2023 alone. The Lukashenko regime began manipulating statistics related to practicing doctors in 2020, coinciding with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The motive behind this manipulation was to deceive international organizations, securing funding for Ministry of Health projects. In June, Belarus celebrated Medical Worker Day, a holiday honoring those in the demanding profession of caring for the sick, alleviating suffering, and saving lives. On June 12, 2024, a celebratory event marked the 105th anniversary of the Belarusian healthcare system and Medical Workers' Day. At the Palace of the Republic, Kochanova congratulated the assembled doctors. The Chairman of the Council of the Republic stressed the Belarusian government's supposed commitment to healthcare and made a number of hypocritical and cynical pronouncements. Let's deconstruct the myths propagated by Kochanova Here is a direct quote from Natallia Kochanova: “Healthcare is one of the priority areas of state social policy. Funding is allocated, new medical institutions are being built, existing ones are being reconstructed, new modern equipment is being purchased, new pharmaceuticals are being produced at our enterprises, and educational institutions annually train professionals for the healthcare industry.” Let's examine the reality of healthcare in Belarus. Here are just a few facts: According to Belstat, the number of healthcare organizations has dwindled from 874 in 1990 to 569 in 2023. This reduction is particularly pronounced in the Viciebsk region (from 161 to 96) and the Mahilou region (from 124 to 56). Furthermore, it is currently impossible to determine the number of hospital beds available during this period, as Belstat has not released this data for several years. It is safe to assume that the number of hospital beds is also declining sharply. Furthermore, Belarusians are increasingly witnessing the closure of medical centers in small villages and towns. First, libraries and local shops disappeared, replaced by traveling vendors. Then post offices vanished. Now it’s the turn of medical clinics. Residents of small villages are left without access to basic medical care. They can no longer get quick medical advice, have simple lab tests done, get their blood pressure checked, or have their heart and lungs examined. The closure of hospitals and medical centers has severely impacted access to healthcare. Residents of remote areas must travel long distances to receive medical services, a significant hardship for the elderly and low-income individuals. Without regular medical supervision, the risk of chronic diseases worsening and new diseases going undetected increases significantly. This decreased access to healthcare will likely lead to higher healthcare costs in the long run. More complicated and severe medical conditions will arise, requiring more expensive treatments But do Lukashenko and his cronies care? This illegitimate regime has secured excellent healthcare for themselves while concealing the true morbidity and mortality rates from the public. They are and will always be indifferent to the health and well-being of the Belarusian people. The lack of adequate healthcare is driving people out of villages and into cities or abroad. This exodus further weakens already sparsely populated areas and stifles economic activity. The remaining healthcare facilities are overwhelmed, leading to a decline in the quality of care. Medical professionals are overworked and resources are stretched thin. And yet, against this backdrop of deterioration and despair, Karanik has the audacity to claim that Belarus ranks 4th or 5th in the world for its doctor-to-population ratio. This is simply untrue. To support this claim, Karanik cites Belstat data from the end of 2023, which reports 136,500 medical workers and 53.2 practicing doctors per 10,000 people. However, this data is based on an adjusted methodology for calculating the number of practicing doctors, and Belstat has not provided any details about this new methodology. Instead of using the actual number of working medical specialists (48,134 according to official statistics), they are including all individuals with higher medical education, including administrators, educators, and other non-practicing professionals. Furthermore, the data on practicing doctors includes all medical professionals, so dentists are being counted as well. The number of practicing physicians is also presented in full-time equivalents. This means that two doctors working 1.5 full-time equivalents each would be counted as three doctors. Belstat itself has inadvertently revealed these manipulations. The latest edition of their annual publication, “Belarus in Figures,” reports 7,400 fewer practicing doctors than the previous year, with a total of 41,300 practicing doctors, or 45.1 per 10,000 people. Based on the most recent data, the number of doctors in Belarus plummeted by 7,000 in 2023 alone. The Lukashenko regime began actively manipulating statistics on practicing doctors in 2020, coinciding with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. These manipulations were intended to mislead international organizations, allowing the regime to secure funding for Ministry of Health projects under false pretenses. As of July 1, 2024, there were 4,943 unfilled vacancies for medical professionals and 4,165 vacancies for nurses. The Homiel State Medical University website lists 5,351 unfilled healthcare positions in Belarus. Can Lukashenko's regime find a way out of this crisis? No. All legitimate mechanisms for regulating the healthcare labor market have been exhausted. The only remaining options are coercion and repression. These tactics might stabilize the situation temporarily, but the long-term outlook points to complete collapse. The Belarusian people have already witnessed the regime's disregard for their health and well-being during the coronavirus pandemic. They saw firsthand that Lukashenko places no value on human life. The people saw the truth and demanded, "GO AWAY!" But Lukashenko clings desperately to power, frantically reshuffling his inner circle as he fears a repeat of the 2020 protests.

"This is a blatant attempt to refute the official communiqué issued by the office of the UN Secretary-General, a communiqué that clearly outlines all claims against the Lukashenko regime," stated Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, during an interview with Belsat TV. Latushka was addressing statements made by Maksim Ryzhenkov, the newly appointed Belarusian Foreign Minister, regarding Lukashenko’s meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The meeting between Lukashenko and Guterres took place during the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The UN press release following the meeting noted that the Secretary-General “expressed concern about the human rights situation in Belarus” and emphasized “the need to end the war in Ukraine based on the principles of the UN Charter, international law, and respect for territorial integrity.” However, Ryzhenkov disputed this account, claiming that the meeting primarily focused on UN activities within Belarus, not on human rights. He dismissed the UN’s statement, saying, “Someone wrote there that supposedly, someone reproached us for something about some human rights violations.” Pavel Latushka pointed out that a report on the human rights situation in Belarus had been presented at the UN Human Rights Council, just before the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit on July 3rd. “Is he truly unaware that the Human Rights Council specifically addressed the case of Belarus, where speaker after speaker, representing various countries, associations, and organizations, condemned the human rights violations taking place in Belarus? To attempt to refute the official communiqué from the UN Secretary-General’s office — a communiqué that clearly outlines all claims against the Lukashenko regime — is a significant diplomatic blunder on Ryzhenkov’s part,” Pavel Latushka stated. The Head of NAM emphasized that it is exceptionally rare in diplomatic protocols to disclose which party initiated a meeting. “The fact that the UN press release stated that it was Lukashenko who requested the meeting — one could even say he was eager for it — speaks volumes,” he noted. Ryzhenkov’s comments were primarily intended for a domestic audience, a clumsy attempt to “challenge the undeniable.” However, Ryzhenkov seems to forget that the words of a foreign minister resonate far beyond Belarus’ borders. Full version of the interview on the Belsat website

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador We've recently observed a decline in illegal border crossings from Belarus into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. This follows an ultimatum issued to the Lukashenko regime by Poland. The ultimatum was voiced by the Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski on June 23rd. Did Lukashenko back down? The issue was further amplified during Polish President Andrzej Duda's visit to China. In response, Beijing issued a statement urging all parties to engage in dialogue. Let's leave aside the explanation why negotiations are not needed here. What's truly needed is a unilateral cessation of the Lukashenko regime's border weaponization. Nevertheless, China's statement, though framed diplomatically, reveals their underlying displeasure with the situation. Our sources indicate that Lukashenko has held three meetings, including a security council session, to assess the potential economic fallout from a border closure with the EU. It's worth noting that Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski publicly acknowledged my stance on this matter, advocating for stringent measures like closing border crossings to trade while simultaneously ensuring Belarusian citizens retain access to the EU. Incidentally, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski published a tweet referencing my comments to the publication "Fakty," where I emphasized our support for exerting maximum pressure on Lukashenko by closing border crossings to trade. Simultaneously, we are actively advocating at all levels, including the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Polish media outlets, to ensure that travel to the EU remains accessible for Belarusian citizens. This encapsulates our approach. A rather interesting situation is unfolding. In the short term, a historic opportunity might arise to exert significant pressure on Lukashenko, compelling him to not only cease the migration war but also to release political prisoners. Ideally, all of them, but even a hundred would be a step forward. Let's examine the potential consequences for Lukashenko's regime if he remains intransigent. It seems he may have no choice but to yield. Economic Fallout of Border Closure The EU currently represents approximately $5.8 billion in Belarusian foreign trade. In 2023, Belarusian exports to the EU totaled €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion), while imports from the EU reached €4 billion ($4.3 billion). The losses incurred from the disappearance of transit routes would be just as significant as the direct losses to Belarus's domestic market. The Belarusian railway workers' community estimates that Belarusian Railways alone could lose approximately $280 million in transit revenue. The cumulative losses across the entire transport industry would be staggering, inflicting long-term damage from which it would struggle to recover. Approximately 4% of Chinese exports destined for the EU are transported through Belarus, primarily by rail. This route is particularly vital for time-sensitive goods, as rail transport, while more expensive, offers a faster alternative to maritime shipping, second only to air freight, which holds a smaller market share. The closure of this transit route could significantly disrupt China's trade with Europe. It's important to note that after experiencing a decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine, the volume of goods transported by rail between China and Europe via Belarus began to rebound. The Polish railway terminal in Małaszewicze, situated on the Belarusian border, recorded a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in cargo volume during the first quarter of 2024. Beyond the challenges posed to China, closing the border would also impede Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions. Russia currently exploits discrepancies in sanctions between the EU and Belarus, employing tactics like "false transit," where sanctioned goods are disguised as shipments bound for or originating from Asia but ultimately diverted to Russia or Belarus. In addition to the railway, the primary route for road freight transport could also be blocked. The Kazlovichy truck crossing on the Polish border serves as the main gateway for goods moving between Belarus and the EU. To illustrate, on June 24th of this year, 773 trucks passed through Kazlovichy in a single direction, compared to a mere 98 through Beniakoni, 49 through Kamenny Loh, and 63 through Hryhorjaushchyna. Combined, all crossings on the Lithuanian and Latvian borders saw a total of 210 heavy trucks. The indirect consequences of closing the border would also extend to smuggling activities, which serve as a lucrative source of income for the Lukashenko regime and its affiliated shadow networks. In 2023, the total value of smuggled goods detected on Poland's eastern border reached almost 50 million zlotys (11.6 million euros), with the lion's share originating from Belarus. Polish border guards and other agencies confiscated nearly 30 million zlotys (just under 7 million euros) worth of goods illegally imported from Belarus last year. Dictators respond only to displays of force Poland's firm stance, coupled with China's involvement, signals that Lukashenko is facing mounting pressure to back down. His failure to do so would be akin to sawing off the branch he's sitting on. The situation demands decisive action from Lukashenko. Refusal to compromise could lead to catastrophic economic and political consequences for his regime.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Can you imagine an independent Belarus, in whose capital foreign troops would march on Independence Day? Probably not. Yet, here we are, with Russian soldiers marching around Minsk, waving Russian tricolors and singing “Russia is behind us!” Are they lost? Do they not know geography? Do they not understand where they are? No, they understand everything perfectly. In their minds, an independent Belarus simply does not exist. So, tell me, how do you like this “Independence Day”? Independence from whom? From Belarusians themselves? And what does the notorious “guarantor of sovereignty” named Lukashenko have to say about this? The same man who stood in the Palace of the Republic and spoke about Belarusian statehood, sovereignty, and national security. Let me get this straight: the soldiers of a country currently waging war against Ukraine, with the goal of destroying Ukraine as a state, are marching through our capital in the interests of our national security? Perhaps it was in the interests of our national security that the Russian army invaded Ukraine from Belarus? Is the destruction of a neighboring state in the interests of our independence? Are Russian nuclear weapons on our territory a sign of our strong sovereignty? Perhaps this year Lukashenko should simply rename his holiday to “Independence Day of the Union State”? After all, how else can he justify the Russian soldiers marching in the Belarusian parade under the slogan “Russia is behind us,” the columns of Russian equipment adorned with St. George ribbons and Russian tricolors? He talks about the choice of the Belarusian people — but the Belarusian people made no such choice. The truth is, when Lukashenko talks about the importance of sovereignty and independence, he is lying. And the more often he uses these words, the more obvious his lie becomes. And the less sovereignty remains in Belarus.

Throughout 2023, the National Anti-Crisis Management team meticulously compiled dossiers on 179 Belarusian athletes affiliated with military or security forces operating under the Lukashenko regime. These dossiers were then submitted to international partners. As a result of this effort, it has been confirmed that several of these athletes have been deemed ineligible to compete in the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris. In December 2023, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Executive Committee established stringent eligibility criteria for the participation of Belarusian athletes in the 2024 Paris Games. Subsequently, in March 2024, the IOC Executive Board formed the Athlete Individual Eligibility Review Panel (AINERP). The AINERP is responsible for verifying the eligibility of athletes holding Russian or Belarusian passports to participate in the 2024 Olympic Games, based on the decisions made by the IOC Executive Board and established principles. This verification process involves drawing upon information from various sources, including official lists of athletes associated with military and security forces in Belarus. In accordance with the established verification rules, not all athletes under review were deemed eligible or invited to participate in the Paris Olympics. The National Anti-Crisis Management played a crucial role in providing information about Belarusian athletes with ties to military structures. This information included details about prominent figures such as Irina Kurochkina and Vanessa Kolodinskaya, both leaders within the wrestling team. The list of eligible athletes will be subject to updates based on ongoing AINERP decisions. "The formation of a dedicated group to assess athletes' compliance with IOC criteria, along with the denial of entry to Belarusian athletes linked to military structures, represents a significant step towards safeguarding the integrity of sport and protecting it from political manipulation," said Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management. "The unwavering commitment of free athletes to upholding Olympic values must not be in vain."