An Analysis of Lukashenko’s Speech

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council

Before we move on to analyzing this speech, I want you to ask yourselves a few fundamental questions:

• Do you feel calmer about your children after a man who surrendered the country’s sovereignty once again started talking about a “peaceful sky”?

• Do you feel confident about tomorrow when you see the fates of Belarusians being used as bargaining chips in negotiations over potash contracts?

• And most importantly: do you truly believe that a man who has been clinging to power for thirty years has even the slightest idea of how to build a modern, successful Belarus for your children and grandchildren?

Today we will analyze this speech in detail. I will show you what really stands behind every word spoken by Lukashenko.

Block 1. About the Peace He Betrayed and the Future He Stole

Quote:"And so 2025 is becoming history… And we know exactly how we want to see it. First of all — peaceful. Peaceful and safe, not only for Belarus, but for all countries and peoples. We all want to live and raise our children under a clear sky, to let them go into independent adult life with a light heart".

The dictator speaks about a peaceful future, but the reality is that it is precisely his actions that have made Belarus an accomplice to the largest act of aggression in Europe since World War II. What "clear sky" and "light heart" can he be talking about when he has turned our land into a launchpad for someone else’s missiles?

It was Lukashenko who handed over our airfields, roads, and all our infrastructure for strikes against a neighboring country. He calls this "security", but in reality he has turned Belarus into a nuclear hostage of the Kremlin by deploying foreign weapons of mass destruction on our territory. As long as he remains in power, Belarus will remain a source of threat to its neighbors and a zone of danger for Belarusians themselves.

Even more frightening is what he says about the future for children. As parents, you can see yourselves that this is a lie. What kind of future can await a child in a country where dissent is punished with prison and education is replaced by ideological drill? Instead of opening doors to the global world, teaching technology and freedom of thought, the regime is building a new Iron Curtain. A dictatorship cannot provide development. When we let our children enter adult life, we want to be sure they will be protected by the law, not by arbitrariness. But today, “independent life” for our youth increasingly means a one-way ticket into emigration. Lukashenko is not building a country for children — he is building a personal prison, stealing the future from an entire nation.

Block 2. The Potash Bargain and the Hypocritical "Year of the Woman"

Quote:"I wish you strong love — captivating and all-consuming… We honor our mothers, wives, and daughters one day a year. The time has come to pay tribute to their special role in our lives and to declare 2026 the Year of the Belarusian Woman. Nature has created nothing more perfect than her!"

The dictator declares 2026 the Year of the Woman, but he does so out of cold and cynical political calculation. This sudden outburst of "love" happened only because he was backed into a corner.

The release of Maria Kalesnikava and other heroes and heroines at the end of 2025 was not an act of mercy. It was a trade in “living goods.” The dictator simply exchanged people’s lives and freedom for the lifting of sanctions on the potash industry. He desperately needs money — both to maintain his massive apparatus of violence and to save an economy that is literally crumbling under his incompetent rule.

To declare a "Year of the Woman" after thousands of Belarusian women have gone through repression, arrests, prisons, torture, and violence is cynicism beyond limits. We remember how he spent years building a system that humiliates women. His belated “recognition” is an attempt to wash blood away with pink paint. True respect for women will begin when no mother ever again cries outside prison walls, and when Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and thousands of other Belarusian women can safely return to their families in a free country.

Block 3. An Economic Dead End Disguised as a "Not Bad Year"

Quote:"Thanks to the efforts of Belarusians, 2025 was not a bad year for us, although it was not easy. They tried to force us to live by чужие laws, to divide us into ‘right’ and ‘wrong,’ to test our resilience with economic storms and political pressure… But we have a habit of sticking together, our Belarusian ‘talaka’".

The dictator claims that the year was "not bad", but behind these words lies a catastrophe. Under his "wise leadership", in January–November 2025 Belarus lost $5.99 billion. We lost subjectivity, markets, and technologies.

He calls on us to "stick together", but his "talaka" means that the entire nation must pay out of its own pocket for the consequences of his disastrous policies and international isolation. While he blames external forces, the best minds are leaving Belarus: engineers, doctors, IT specialists. The massive labor shortage we see today is not just a problem for enterprises. It is a verdict on the future of Belarus, delivered by the dictator through his policies. He has no development strategy — only a survival strategy based on new loans from the neighboring state.

We propose a path of Normality: unfreezing the economy, bringing back investments, and creating conditions where success depends on talent, not on loyalty to the regime.

Block 4. Fear of Dialogue and Real Unity

Quote:"Our opponents still have not learned that we are used to creating, not destroying. Uniting, not inciting. Talking, not shouting. And this is not weakness — it is our strength… We never seek quarrels and conflicts, but we can certainly stand up for ourselves. This is how we lived and how we will live".

The dictator calls for "dialogue" and "unity", but behind these words lies a panicked fear of his own people. It was he who divided the nation into "correct" citizens and "extremists", building walls inside our families and circles of friends.

He says he is used to creating? No — he is used to destroying lives. He speaks of dialogue? But his "dialogue" is always a monologue behind the closed doors of a prison. We, the democratic forces, propose a real way out of the deadlock — a Round Table. This is not a platform for capitulation; it is a platform for responsibility before the nation.

We need to agree on rules of the game that are the same for everyone. We want not a fight until the last winner, but the restoration of justice and a return to the Rule of Law. We want professionals — teachers, doctors, managers to work for the country, not for the self-preservation of one man.

Conclusion: The Time of Our Choice

Lukashenko’s New Year address has shown one thing clearly: this regime has no tomorrow. In his words there is only the past, fear, and a desire to cling to his chair at any cost — at the cost of our sovereignty.

But I know that we are different. We have lived through another year of waiting, but we have not broken. And today I want us to feel the difference. The dictator offers us "endurance and promises", while we offer a path to a normal life. To a country where New Year’s Eve is a celebration, not an expectation of new disasters. To a country where our children will buy tickets to Minsk and Hrodna, because their home is here — and here they can be successful.

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