Belarus Between Peace and War

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council.

In recent months, the regime has been assuring us: “Belarus is for peace.” But if you look closely at its actions, we see the exact opposite. When a state speaks of peace but prepares for war, it means someone has already made the decision for us. And we must stop it.

In the second reading, the bill “On Amendments to Laws Regarding Military Security and Defense” was adopted. Behind the dry legal wording lies something far more dangerous than mere bureaucratic amendments. This law effectively drags Belarus into all of the Kremlin's wars.

Now, an attack on Russia is automatically considered an attack on Belarus. This means that if Moscow orders it, Lukashenko can justify sending Belarusian soldiers under the guise of “protecting the Union State.” This is not defense — it is the legalization of participation in someone else’s war.

Look at what has happened over the past months:

• October 11 — order to bring the army to the highest level of combat readiness.

• Mass inspections of warning and alert systems across the country, almost every week.

• Emergency Ministry exercises at strategically important factories — “Horizon” in Minsk, casting and norm factories in Gomel.

• Large-scale maneuvers near Borisov — not just firefighting drills, but scenarios of destruction, transport accidents, evacuations.

• Fingerprinting of conscripts, territorial army drills, and testing of internet blockages.

All these "small things" add up to one big picture: the regime is systematically testing the country’s mobilization mechanism. These are not exercises — they are a full dress rehearsal for war.

Look at the state programs for the next five years: out of 28, 8 are dedicated to "national security", and 4 are completely classified. They are overseen by the KGB, Ministry of Defense, and State Military Industry Committee.This is not about security; it is about fear. The fear of a regime that is preparing not to protect its people, but to protect itself from its people. When a government stops believing in the future, it begins preparing for war.

The illegitimate authorities repeat: "We are for peace, but must be ready for anything". But let’s be honest: where does the real threat to Belarus come from today? From the west? From Poland or Lithuania, which themselves live under the threat of war? Or perhaps from the east — from Lukashenko’s “ally,” who has already dragged Ukraine into a terrible tragedy and is now seeking new partners to continue it?

If we put all the events together, from military assemblies to new laws, a clear picture emerges: Lukashenko is preparing to enter a war on Russia’s side. Not because Belarus needs it, but because he cannot say "no" to Putin. Because he is politically, financially, and energetically dependent. Because in exchange for staying on the throne, he is willing to pay with our lives.

Here is another proof of this dependence: next year, Belarus will receive almost 6.7 billion rubles in so-called "grants from foreign states". This is 12% of the entire state budget. This amount is one and a half times larger than last year and nearly double all defense expenditures.

Experts say it openly: this money is from Russia, possibly to compensate for losses at Belarusian refineries due to the tax maneuver — or perhaps for something even more. The regime is essentially living on Russian subsidies.

Now ask: can a country that receives every eighth ruble of its budget from Moscow truly be independent? Can such a regime refuse Kremlin requests if asked to "help a brotherly people" in a "special military operation"? The answer is obvious.

In December, Lukashenko will convene the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly — a body he himself granted new powers. According to the new Constitution, it is this assembly that now has the right to declare war, send troops abroad, and introduce martial law.

Lukashenko has already stated plainly: "If war breaks out tomorrow — we convene the Assembly and put the country on a war footing".This means that the decision for war may be made not by the people, but by a group of appointed officials and security officers. Without discussion, without a referendum, without our consent.

Our soldiers are our children, brothers, neighbors. They should not die in someone else’s war, where Belarus has no objectives. Belarus faces no real threat. Yet we are being dragged into a conflict the country does not want to enter.We remember how in 2022, missiles were launched from our territory in Ukraine. We saw the authorities deny the obvious. Now they want to make that shame legal.

We must record every step of militarization, document exercises, military purchases, and new laws. Mothers must speak out: "My son will not go fight for someone else’s ambitions, on foreign soil".

We must strive to speak the truth while there is still time.

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