Liquidation of the Smuggling Regime

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council

In Belarus, power has long since turned into the personal shop of one man and his inner circle. A country where state borders protect not the interests of the people, but the flow of contraband. A country where the self-proclaimed president is the chief smuggler — not of drugs, as in Venezuela, but of cigarettes.

Today I want to talk about why Lukashenko’s regime resembles Maduro’s, why both survive not on public support but on criminal schemes, and why their days are numbered.

When, in 2020, the United States officially accused Nicolás Maduro of drug trafficking, many in Belarus thought: "That’s far away; it doesn’t concern us". But today we see: Lukashenko follows the same model — only on a smaller scale and with a different commodity.

Maduro cooperated with Colombian drug cartels to "flood the U.S. with cocaine", using planes from military bases. Lukashenko covers up gray business operations to "flood Europe with cigarettes", using trucks, trains, drones, and even weather balloons. The only difference is the product. The essence is the same — state smuggling for personal enrichment.

For the recipient countries, such a criminal enterprise means billions in lost taxes, the strengthening of organized crime, and deep corruption in border and customs agencies. In Belarus’s case, cigarette smuggling under Lukashenko’s protection is also seen as a hybrid threat designed to destabilize and distract the EU.

When U.S. President Donald Trump said, "Maduro’s days are numbered", he was speaking about a system where power trades in crime. Lukashenko is next. Because no regime built on lies, smuggling, and corruption can survive long.

Lukashenko himself once admitted: "If we need to send cigarettes to Poland — we’ll send a whole wagon". He said it publicly and proudly, adding: "It’s not nuclear weapons, after all". That is the logic of a smuggler-dictator.

He even acknowledged that border guards "turn a blind eye" because they "were paid". This is a confession of state collusion, an admission that Belarus has become a smuggling factory where corruption is the mechanism of power.

But this isn’t just about cigarettes. It’s about a system of personal enrichment — Lukashenko and his "wallets": Aleksin, Teterin, Topuzidis, and others. Through them, he built an entire tobacco empire. Revenues that should have gone to hospitals, schools, and roads went into the pockets of the dictator’s family and his cronies.

Because smuggling is not just a shadow economy — it’s the regime’s survival mechanism. While the country grows poorer, the regime grows richer — stealing from its own people and its neighbors.

But times have changed. Sanctions imposed by Europe against Lukashenko’s tobacco business have begun to strangle this system. Closed border crossings, reduced traffic, and transit restrictions have all hit the regime’s criminal economy hard.

Look at the numbers: in 2022, Lithuania intercepted 4.4 million packs of Belarusian cigarettes; in 2023 — 2.5 million; in 2025 — only a third of that. Smuggling is falling — and with it, Lukashenko’s income. As revenues drop, his entire financial pyramid begins to crumble.

The closure of the Ukrainian route after the war also cut off one of the largest channels. Now the regime is losing not just money — it’s losing oxygen.

In Russia, pressure is also growing. Moscow demands higher excise alignment, which means the end of cheap Belarusian tobacco and the end of smuggling flows. Russian officials openly expose fake Belarusian excise stamps — showing him: "We know everything" Lukashenko is trapped between Western sanctions and Kremlin pressure.

Even so, according to Poland’s tax service, in 2023 alone illegal Belarusian cigarettes worth over 24 million zlotys were seized. And how many went undetected? Hundreds of millions of cigarettes still reach Germany, France, and the UK. This is not small-scale smuggling — it’s an international criminal network, managed from Lukashenko’s palace in Minsk.

On November 3, 2025, in Poland, another shipment of Belarusian contraband was found hidden under coal.

Why do I say Lukashenko’s days are numbered? Because smuggling cannot be the foundation of a state. It always collapses. And that collapse is happening now.

The West has closed its doors. The East is tightening the screws. The people are turning away. Every Belarusian sees: we have no real economy — only schemes. No laws. No true state. Only arbitrariness and corruption.

We are not doomed to be a nation of smugglers. To change that, we must abolish the smuggling regime. And it can be eliminated not with drones or tanks, but with truth and determination.

We must investigate and document every act of smuggling. Every statement by Lukashenko is already evidence. Every train car of cigarettes — proof of a crime.

Sanctions are working. Borders are closing. The world no longer looks away.

Maduro’s regime is cracking because it fed on narcotics. Lukashenko’s regime will soon crack as well.

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