Belarusian Titanic

Illustrative photo

Lukashenko is sinking the economy to stay afloat.

Once again, Lukashenko is driving Belarus’s economy to the brink of disaster. The regime habitually calls this growth and stability, but behind the polished numbers lies a systemic collapse. Industry, once the pride of the country, is drowning in losses, exports are falling, and the ruble is losing stability. All of this is the result of Lukashenko’s personal ambitions and greed, along with his inner circle, who have turned the country’s economy into a hostage of their regime.

Over thirty years, Lukashenko has not built a sustainable economic model — he has built a system of personal control. In it, any enterprise, from BelAZ to a small dairy plant in a district center, operates not by market rules but by a call from above. Lukashenko has convinced himself — and tries to convince literally everyone else — that he can manage the entire country like a state farm: whom to punish, whom to forgive debts, whom to give credit under "state interests".

The result is predictable. The industrial complex, once the pride of Belarus and the locomotive of GDP, has become the main brake on the economy. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, industrial production in 2025 fell by 1%, despite the state pouring billions into the sector. Lukashenko, out of habit, demands an increase in production. But this is like trying to make a rusty engine run at maximum speed: without a major overhaul, it will burn out faster. Enterprises are forced to take new loans to pay salaries, creating the illusion of growth, while actually operating at a loss and increasing their debt burden.

Official statistics, though seemingly encouraging — reporting GDP growth of 1.6%, investments up 15%, and retail turnover up 8% — have no real substance. By highlighting isolated indicators detached from the broader economic system, the regime attempts to mislead the public. Investment growth is driven by state money and loans guaranteed by the same officials reporting their so-called successes. Private investment has disappeared, foreign investment is under sanctions. This is not development, but a simulation of movement, where the economy runs in place just to show that the engine has not stalled.

Exports are falling, imports are rising. In just January–September, the trade deficit reached $4.5 billion, one and a half times higher than last year. Belarus buys more and sells less — and what it does sell is mostly to Russia, which is now looking for ways to offload its surpluses.

While enterprises drown in debt, the dictator has long moved his assets abroad. Through structures connected to his inner circle, money flows to the UAE, Russia, and other hidden corners.

Lukashenko keeps the entire country’s economy in a state of constant dependency — on loans, on Russia, on fear. A dependent economy means dependent people. Any attempt at reform or privatization threatens him personally: it would destroy the system of manual control on which the illegitimate regime rests.

That is why Lukashenko will not allow real changes. He prefers to issue new loans to enterprises so they can pay salaries and show growth — even if only on paper. And these loans are, in essence, paid from thin air — through the printing press of the National Bank.

In two years, the volume of government securities on the National Bank’s balance sheet has increased tenfold.Essentially, the government covers the budget deficit and finances state enterprises with money created not by the economy, but out of thin air — by a bureaucrat’s signature. This is deferred inflation, which will sooner or later hit citizens’ pockets.

Today, the Belarusian economy is a soap bubble, inflated by fear and debt. Wage growth is not supported by productivity, and budget expenditures are covered through debt and money printing. Meanwhile, both external and internal debt burdens grow. Only the debt to Russia for the construction of the nuclear power plant amounts to $10 billion. On paper, people earn more, but they can buy less. The ruble is losing real value, prices are rising, and enterprises operate at a loss.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have already downgraded Belarus’s forecasts: in 2025, GDP growth will not exceed 1.9%, and in 2026 it will barely reach 1.3%. This is not development — it is the creeping decay of the economy.

Lukashenko himself admits that "the main problem is market access", yet he stubbornly does not see that the market is not just geography — it is trust. And trust cannot be restored by decrees. It cannot be restored while the country is run through fear, not rules. While the economy is subordinated to the ambitions of one man, it has no future.

Belarus does not need a supervisory leader. It needs someone who will allow people to work and earn according to the rules, not by command. But Lukashenko cannot allow this — for then the foundation of his power would collapse.

That is why, even if the figures in the reports are still rising, the system itself is already rotting from within. And when the next bubble bursts, along with it will vanish the myth of Lukashenko-style stability.

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