Belarus Becomes Feudal: Locking Zones, Locking People

Illustrative photo 

On October 20, Lukashenko signed the decree "On the Fixing of Raw Material Zones"

According to the document, regional executive committees (oblastispolkoms) must now determine which agricultural enterprises will supply meat and dairy processing plants. In simple terms — each processor will be assigned specific suppliers.

The official explanation sounds noble: "to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises and increase capacity utilization". But in reality, this is not about efficiency. It’s about control. About a hand-operated economy, where everything depends not on the market but on orders.

Similar schemes existed in the USSR, when collective farms were assigned to factories and milk collection points. Farmers had no choice whom to sell their milk or meat to — everything was decided from above. Today, Lukashenko is effectively bringing back the same system, under the guise of modern management.

Instead of competition and market incentives, there is administrative assignment. Instead of growth, there is preservation of backwardness. Instead of genuine support for agricultural producers, there is another attempt to tighten the screws and subjugate the entire sector to the vertical of power.

This decree is an administrative, non-market measure that may temporarily increase capacity utilization but will not be effective in the long term for competitiveness or development. It will not even ensure the basic survival of agricultural enterprises.

Agricultural enterprises will no longer be able to choose whom to sell their raw materials to. Prices will be dictated by the processor, who has no competitors. This is a path toward declining incomes. When results no longer depend on effort, motivation disappears. Why improve quality if goods can only be delivered to one place at a fixed price?

Decisions about who is assigned to whom are made by local officials. This creates the perfect environment for deals, kickbacks, and behind-the-scenes schemes. The decree gives oblastispolkoms a powerful tool of control. This fits the overall model of the regime’s economy in Belarus, where decisions are made by the administrative center rather than the market.

Lukashenko likes to talk about “supporting domestic producers,” but instead of investing in technology and infrastructure, the state relies on decrees and coercion.

If we follow the logic of this decree, the next step is obvious: to assign people to these "raw material zones". So that workers cannot leave without permission. Lukashenko had previously threatened this: "No mechanic, milkwoman, and so on in the agricultural enterprise can take a step to the left or right without the decision of the manager".

This is sarcasm — but in Belarus under a dictator, sarcasm often becomes reality. Today — enterprises are assigned; tomorrow — workers will be assigned; the day after tomorrow — every Belarusian will be told where they must work.

Belarus is turning into an economic version of a feudal state, where agricultural enterprises are not free to choose whom and what to sell.

Why now this decree? It is part of the regime’s broader economic panic. Industry is declining, exports shrinking, foreign trade deficits growing, and the budget is short of money. Meat and dairy plant utilization has dropped, stockpiles are increasing, and profits are falling.

Instead of addressing fundamental problems — modernization, logistics, marketing — Lukashenko chooses the old path: forcing compliance by decree.

But the economy does not obey orders. It responds to interest and profit. History has repeatedly proven this.

In 2016, a similar idea of assigning suppliers to processors was implemented temporarily, and it led to enterprises supplying low-quality raw materials just to meet quotas.

In 2022, after forced redistribution of grain, decisions were made at oblast executive committees and the Ministry of Agriculture under Decree No. 754 "On the Establishment of Raw Material Zones". Some enterprises suffered losses — logistics costs increased, prices stayed low.

Today, in Russia, similar schemes in meat and dairy are already recognized as ineffective — the market deteriorated, and producers became hostages of monopolies.

The decree "On the Fixing of Raw Material Zones" is not an economic reform. It is a symptom of fear. Fear of losing control as the old system cracks, people leave villages, and budgets run empty.

Lukashenko is incapable of building an economy where incentives drive growth, so he takes the whip. But the whip will not make a cow give more milk.

He wants to force Belarus to live by the principle: "If the system doesn’t work — tighten control".

But the tighter he turns the screws, the faster the mechanism breaks. The decree is another proof that his economy relies not on development, but on fear and subordination.

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