If Belarusian potash fertilizers are completely squeezed out of the Chinese market, the Lukashenko regime could lose up to a billion dollars in export revenues.
Until recently, regime officials told us that they were not afraid of sanctions on potash, thinking that China could replace the regime's entire exports to Europe.
But China is a country that knows how to count money and plan for the long term. And in that perspective, the potential war criminal Lukashenko is hardly a reliable partner for China.
And there were clear signs of this just the other day when it was revealed that Canadian potash sales company Canpotex had signed a six-month contract with the Chinese Potash Procurement Committee to supply potash at $307 per tonne.
In a press release on Tuesday, Gordon Mackenzie, president and CEO of the Canadian company that sells fertilizer manufacturers Nutrien and Mosaic, said he hoped to continue reliable and stable potash supplies to Chinese customers. Apparently, supplies from Belaruskali proved to be unreliable and unstable and things are not as rosy as Lukashenka's propaganda is painting us.
Under the new Sino-Canadian agreement, the potash price is USD 115 per tonne lower than the previous price record for the contract signed between Indian importers and Uralkali at the beginning of April this year. At that time, the contract price was USD 422 per tonne, which was already 28% lower than the global average price.
Long-term agreements with India and China are generally seen as trendsetters for potash prices around the world because of their huge volumes. The news came as a surprise to many potash market players, including Lukashenko.
Previously, it was thought that China might not resort to alternative supplies at all because of potash exports from Russia and Belarus. But, as it turns out, even China chooses Western partners and is not burning with the desire to expand cooperation with those who wage wars, violate nuclear non-proliferation agreements and interfere with Chinese trade with European countries.
If Belarusian potash fertilizers are completely squeezed out of the Chinese market, the Lukashenko regime could lose up to a billion dollars in export revenues.
China may be sending a clear signal to Lukashenko that it is time to stop the lawlessness he has created in the centre of Europe. The old, sick Lukashenko, who is fed up with everyone, would do well to retire and not interfere with the establishment of partnerships with Europe - both Belarus and China.
Maybe the new China-Canada potash deal is just the beginning of a new joint strategy of the West and the East towards military aggressors and international security, including economic security? We shall see.
The event could also be the end of lobbyists' attempts to get sanctions lifted on Belarusian potash through false narratives about the food security that the sanctions allegedly threaten.
Lukashenko can go on and on about the importance of the economy at joint events of the CIS, the EEU and the Union State. But behind these words there is a gaping void that leads Belarus nowhere.
Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Head of the NAM