Theses of the speech of Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management
At the conference ‘The Future of Belarus’ during the panel discussion — ‘Democratic Opposition in Belarus and in Exile — How Diplomats May Help’.
10.01.2025, Warsaw
Unexpected? But let me explain why I pose this question.
As a Belarusian politician, I often hear the question about the future of Belarus – at meetings with partners, at conferences, and so on. My answer is always the same: the future of Belarus must be democratic and European. This is not just a wish, but a question of strategy — a security strategy for Europe, where the war that Russia and Lukashenko’s regime fight against Ukraine is already ongoing. How will it end? When? I don’t think anyone has a clear answer.
But there is a sense of tension in the air. "Security" is the motto of the Polish semester in the Council of the European Union. However, the understanding of the fragility of this security, seems not to help Europe develop a clear strategy for its own security.
Where does it begin? With increased military spending? With the construction of defensive structures? This is necessary today, but the strategy must also include preventive measures. Yes, one can simply accept war as inevitable and wait for it to start. This happened with Ukraine. The West did not take real preventive measures to prevent a full-scale invasion. It’s not about appeasing the aggressor. It’s about acting preemptively, weakening the aggressors before they start attacking.
I recall the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Lex Fridman: “I asked to strengthen us with weapons, but the most important thing is to strengthen us with preconditions to prevent the war. Threaten Putin with sanctions now, not after the invasion.”
Did the West hear this? Yes, but did not act proactively. In 2020, we, the Belarusian democratic forces, also urged the West to impose sanctions on Lukashenko, to threaten him. But serious sanctions did not follow. Other reasons were needed — for the terror to go beyond Belarus: the hijacking of a plane, the migration war with the EU, and then — Lukashenko’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war, we have been talking about the importance of harmonizing sanctions against Russia and Belarus. But even these measures have not been fully implemented. Why? Does the EU think that allowing aggressors to bypass sanctions is a good security strategy?
Sanctions are one example. Another is bringing Lukashenko to international criminal responsibility. Lithuania submitted a request to the ICC regarding the situation in Belarus, but the support for this request from other countries has been only rhetorical for now, not in action. Why? Is ignoring international crimes safer than countering them?
Why not use the tools to counteract Lukashenko proactively? Waiting leads to consequences: mass terror in Belarus began in 2020 — and by 2022 Lukashenko had already become an accomplice in the invasion to Ukraine.
The year 2025 has come. It began with Poland’s presidency of the Council of the European Union under the slogan “Security, Europe.” I believe this is a key moment for developing Europe’s security strategy. Poland, as well as Lithuania and Latvia, were the first to face the consequences of Lukashenko’s terror and the migration war. Just next to Poland, across the border, a full-scale war against Ukraine is taking place, which started partly from Belarusian territory.
Poland and the neighboring countries certainly recognize the threat from Belarus. Does the rest of Europe recognize it? Is this awareness enough to start acting strategically and preventively?
It’s still not too late to take preventive measures that could make the threat impossible. Otherwise, we must admit that in the future, the EU sees Belarus as a country with which, sooner or later, they will have to fight.
How to prevent such a future? Act preventively.
Threaten Lukashenko.Sanctions based on the formula: reinforcement plus harmonization plus strict control. Make Lukashenko's regime economically costly for Russia and close the opportunity for both aggressors to bypass sanctions.
Split the elites and facilitate the transition of power.Issue an arrest warrant for Lukashenko and refuse to recognize his fraudulent elections. His elites should understand that with him, Belarus has no future. Strengthen Belarusian democratic forces, support the institutions we’ve created: the President-elect, the United Transitional Cabinet, the Coordination Council. This is the political alternative to the regime today and the foundation for the transition of power tomorrow.
Work with Belarusian society.Support for Belarusian society is not only the foundation of a strategy for Belarus, but also an investment in the future and security of Europe. Belarusians, despite the repression, support democracy and oppose war. Peace and democracy are the core values of Belarusians.
This is the key difference between Belarusians and Russians, and it is what prevents Lukashenko from directly engaging in aggression. It’s important not to lose the minds of the people. To do this, we need to support independent media, bloggers, and civil society more actively. The information front is the first line of defense, and we need to invest in it as much as we do in real defense structures.
How much one Abrams or Leopard tank cost, or an F16 fighter jet — and how much is the EU allocating for countering Lukashenko's propaganda? 5-7 million euros?
One glance at the map of Europe is enough to understand why we need to fight for Belarus and its minds. Winning this war for minds is far better now than winning a real war later.
Thank you for your attention.
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