Lukashenka’s Step Towards War

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council.

A Legislative Path to War? How "Legally" Transforms Belarus into a Militarized Dictatorship

Today, September 16, 2025, the House of Representatives in Minsk adopted in the first reading two draft laws that radically change the security system in the country. These are not just technical amendments; they are consistent, well-planned steps aimed at the militarization of Belarus and preparation for potential participation in aggression. As we showed in detail in our documentary "Belarus in the Grip of War: Chronicles of Transformation", these changes are not accidental but part of a single strategy that systematically turns the country into a military stronghold.

These draft laws were adopted as part of a large-scale update of Belarusian military legislation and its alignment with the new Military Doctrine. In our film, we already analyzed how the new Military Doctrine, instead of its declared “defensive” nature, lays the foundation for aggressive actions. We explained that it erases the line between peacetime and wartime, gives the army functions of suppressing internal protests, and expands the concept of "military threat", allowing the regime to use force against its own people. Watch our film — we analyze in depth how this works. And you will see that the adoption of these draft laws is a further development and legal consolidation of the very threats we described. They turn doctrinal provisions into real, functioning mechanisms.

Preventive Aggression: Lukashenka Entrenches Dictatorship by Force

Photo source: bntu.by

Analysis of the draft laws shows that they are part of Lukashenka’s broader strategy to forcibly militarize the country and prepare for potential participation in aggression. It is obvious that these changes are directly connected with Russia’s war against Ukraine — launched with the support and complicity of the Lukashenka regime — as well as with the regime’s aggressive stance toward neighboring EU countries.

Centralization of command. The first draft law, "On Amendments to Laws on Ensuring Military Security and Defense", significantly expands the powers of the security forces, concentrating all military power in the hands of Alyaksandr Lukashenka. Now, when martial law is introduced, the Ministry of Defense will act as the executive body of the Security Council under the direct leadership of the Commander-in-Chief. This is not merely an administrative simplification — it is a dangerous concentration of power that allows quick and decisive military decisions, including beyond the country’s borders.

New tasks of the Armed Forces in peacetime — preparation for invasion and repression:

"Preventive measures to eliminate a military threat": This is the key and most dangerous wording, also contained in the first draft law. It opens the door for military actions outside Belarus under the pretext of "eliminating a threat". This provision is the next step in granting legal status to the actions we warned about in our film. Given Lukashenka’s constant aggressive rhetoric toward Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine, this provision could be used to legitimize sabotage or even open invasion of their territories.

"Prevention of an internal armed conflict": This wording, also taken from the draft law, is a direct indication of using the army against its own people. Previously, the army could only “resolve” conflicts; now it is tasked with "preventing" them. Any expression of dissent or peaceful protest could be declared an "internal conflict", giving the army the right to suppress civic resistance. We well remember how the regime interpreted the protests of 2020, and now it gains a legal basis for even harsher repression.

"Information warfare": The inclusion of "participation in creating favorable conditions in the information space" among the Armed Forces’ tasks legalizes the use of the army for propaganda purposes. This is a complete copy of the Russian military doctrine, where the armed forces actively conduct "information confrontation".

Legal Consolidation of Complicity and Loss of Sovereignty

"Nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system. The Zapad-2025 exercises have begun in Belarus." Source: gazeta.ru

Perhaps the most dangerous point is the amendments to the Law "On Martial Law", which effectively establish the possibility of turning Belarus into a legally obligated accomplice in any war launched by Russia.

Act of aggression against the Union State or a CSTO member: This now becomes a direct basis for introducing martial law in Belarus. In the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, this is not just a theoretical provision. We see how Russia uses Belarusian territory as a springboard, training ground, and supply base. The new law creates conditions for consolidating this status of Belarus as an accomplice in aggression, potentially obliging it to participate in Russia’s conflicts. If the Kremlin provokes an incident with Lithuania or Poland, or escalates aggression in Ukraine, Lukashenka will have the legislative basis to immediately involve the country in war.

Loss of sovereignty: The Lukashenka regime effectively hands over sovereignty in matters of war and peace to the Kremlin. This is yet another step toward turning Belarus into a Kremlin puppet.

Militarization of the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES): Expansion of the Repressive Apparatus

The second draft law, concerning the Ministry of Emergency Situations, at first glance might not seem connected to the military threat — but it is. It represents another step toward the total militarization of society.

MES becomes a militarized organization: Rescue units, which should provide assistance to the civilian population, are now equated with army structures. Their employees gain the right to conduct personal searches and use special means — effectively turning them into another security force with police functions.

Centralization of financing: The draft law excludes MES funding from regional budgets and the budget of Minsk. This means financing will be carried out exclusively from the republican budget. This is not just a technical adjustment but a strategic decision that strengthens control over financial flows, fully centralizing them in the hands of the leadership. It deprives regions of any autonomy in financing matters and allows the regime to direct all funds and resources according to its plans, including suppressing dissent.

Conclusion: The Last Chance to Prevent Disaster

These two draft laws are not mere technical changes. They demonstrate the implementation of Lukashenka’s strategic goals in his aggressive policy. He is deliberately and systematically:

Integrating Belarus into the Kremlin’s military plans. This happens not only through political statements but also at the legislative level. The adoption of amendments that in effect oblige Belarus to participate in military conflicts as Russia’s ally legally transforms the country into a full-fledged staging ground for Russian aggression — and, at the same time, makes it not only a potential accomplice but also a potential target.

Expanding the powers of security forces and militarizing civilian agencies to strengthen total control. The new laws turn the army into a tool for suppressing internal resistance, while agencies such as the MES gain functions typical of security structures. This creates a unified control system where practically any civilian agency can be used to fight dissent.

Creating legal mechanisms to suppress any resistance. Phrases like "prevention of internal armed conflict" give the regime formal grounds to use the army against its own people. This is a legal cover for repression that completely unties the dictator’s hands and allows him to act even more harshly, without regard for legal norms.

We see that Lukashenka’s regime continues to transform Belarus into a militarized dictatorship. His actions show that he is not interested in peace — despite all his false populist statements — but continues to prepare the country for war. And this is no longer just a threat; it is a legal reality. How did we get to this reality?

We explain this in detail in our documentary "Belarus in the Grip of War". Watch it, share this video with your friends. It is important to know the truth — because the regime’s propaganda will never tell it.

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