Whether or not Belarus will enter the war against Ukraine as part of a ground operation — is a question on the lips of foreign journalists, political scientists, politicians and diplomats. Why do we think that this issue may become secondary in the near future?
Because the military threat of the Lukashenko regime is now turning into a nuclear threat. According to incoming information, the Lukashenko regime, together with Russia, has carried out preparatory measures to receive tactical nuclear weapons and deploy them on the territory of Belarus.
If this plan is implemented and the regime receives Russian nuclear weapons — regardless of who will have control over the "button" - the issue of Belarus' participation in the ground operation will no longer be the key to the development of the West’s strategy towards the regime.
Which, by the way, did not exist, and still does not exist — despite the active participation of the Lukashenko regime in the war against Ukraine from the very first day. Despite another increase of the Russian military presence in Belarus, the creation of new combat training centers and the actual phased implementation of the plan to create joint armed forces of Russia and Belarus. Who will command them, by the way, is also unclear — but it is not difficult to guess.
If nuclear weapons appear on the territory of Belarus, the entire region will enter a new reality — a reality where, right on the borders with the European Union, a second North Korea has grown up before everyone’s eyes with a totalitarian and completely pro-Russian, puppet regime. North Korea with a mentally unstable dictator at the head, possessing nuclear weapons and threatening all its neighbors with their use. Even if control over the button will be in the hands of Russia.
So what are the three questions Western countries should ask themselves in these circumstances? What three questions are important to answer in order to develop a strategy for Lukashenko — when any delay already threatens the entire region?
The first question: what measures should be taken in the very short term to prevent the appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus and how radical should they be?
The second question: if the West is not ready to consider any radical measures in the near future, are our Western neighbors ready for the transition to a new reality of life on a powder nuclear keg?
The third question: if Russian nuclear weapons are used from the territory of Belarus, then which country will be hit back?
There is already one North Korea in the world. Before our eyes, the second one is about to appear, but now in the center of Europe. And we know very well that there is no bottom in this North Korea 2.0.
The only question is whether there is a bottom to the "deep concern" of the West about this. And whether there is a political will to push off from this bottom and start acting decisively.
As a politician and representative of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, on a daily basis I work with our partners, convincing them of the importance of pre-emptive — not catching-up actions.
Today, right now, Lukashenko must receive a clear signal, a preventive ultimatum with a list of all the consequences of the appearance of nuclear weapons in Belarus for him personally.
The strategy cannot always look back at what has already happened. Otherwise, it is not a strategy, but a reaction. But so far, this is exactly what is happening with the strategy of the West towards the Lukashenko regime.
When nuclear weapons appear in Belarus, when Belarus turns into a second North Korea under Russian control, it will be too late to react.