Lukashenko's IRGC

Ebrahim Raisi and Alexander Lukashenko. Source: aa.com.tr

*IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — an elite military-political formation in Iran, established after the 1979 revolution, tasked with protecting the regime and participating in military operations.)

Recently, Alexander Lukashenko announced that the Presidential Administration would shortly be verifying whether his decree — requiring the heads of private companies to be approved by local authorities — is being enforced.

Think about that. The heads of private companies must be cleared by state officials. This is not a recommendation. This is not a consultation. This is a system of control. Lukashenko stated it plainly: a private business owner must have their managers approved by the district, city, or regional executive committee.

And he explained why. So that they are, in essence, state-controlled. Not in terms of ownership. But in terms of their activities and dependence. This means one simple thing: an illegitimate authority wants every director of a private company to be dependent on the regime. So that every entrepreneur understands — your career, your contracts, your business depend not on the market, not on your clients, but on loyalty to the Lukashenko regime.

Back in February 2025, a decree was adopted strengthening the role of executive committees. District and city executive committee chairmen were granted the right to approve the appointment of heads of private organisations located on their territory. In practice, this means the following. If you are an entrepreneur and wish to appoint a director of your enterprise — you must obtain the approval of an official appointed by Lukashenko.

A meeting on improving the legal regulation of the status of the chairperson of a base-level executive committee. Source: president.gov.by

If the official decides that a person is "not the right fit" — the appointment will not happen. If a businessman behaves "incorrectly" — his personnel decisions will simply be blocked. This is how a system is created in which private business ceases to be private. It becomes administratively managed.

But this is only part of the picture. Looking more broadly, it becomes clear: Belarus is beginning to replicate the economic model long employed by harsh autocratic regimes — most strikingly, Iran.

In Iran, a significant share of the economy is controlled by structures linked to the regime — the so-called charitable foundations known as bonyads. Formally established to support war veterans and social programmes, they have over time transformed into colossal economic structures. Today these foundations own thousands of companies across sectors ranging from construction and energy to banking and transport. They are, in effect, a parallel economy subordinated to the authorities.

This economy operates on the principle of patronage. Contracts go to those loyal to the regime. Jobs go to those loyal to the regime. Financial resources are distributed among those who support the regime. Those who are not loyal are simply denied access to the market.

In Iran, this system is reinforced by the IRGC. Over the years of the ayatollahs' rule, this structure has become not only a military force but a vast business empire. Through the Khatam al-Anbiya conglomerate and other companies, it controls infrastructure, construction, energy, and transport. It has its own banks, its own airline, and enormous financial resources. It is effectively a state within a state — and the entire system serves one purpose: to maintain political power through the economy.

But any regime economy has one further essential component — a coercive foundation. A loyalty-based economic system cannot sustain itself alone. It is always underpinned by an apparatus of compulsion.

And we can see how this apparatus in Belarus is being deliberately strengthened. Recently, Deputy Interior Minister and Commander of the Internal Troops Nikolai Karpenko announced a major reorganisation of special units. The "Buran" special operations detachment in the Gomel region has been converted into a separate military unit. The "Shtorm" detachment in the Brest region is to follow. The Minsk military unit 3310 will become a special operations brigade. The capital's unit 5448 will receive operational status.

The Buran special forces unit of the internal troops. Source: sb.by

What does this mean? It means the expansion and institutionalisation of forces designed to suppress internal unrest. And the authorities speak of this entirely openly. Karpenko stated directly that the reforms are being carried out drawing on the experience of suppressing so-called "colour revolutions" in Georgia, Serbia, and Iran. He emphasised that special operations units — professional, well-armed, mobile — produce the best results in suppressing protests, and that they are capable of conducting special operations to neutralise the leaders and organisers of mass protests.

Note, too, how their armament is being upgraded. These units are receiving grenade launchers, anti-tank systems, flamethrowers, heavy machine guns, and BTR-82 armoured personnel carriers. Dedicated drone aviation centres are being established — three already exist within the internal troops, with a fourth to be created within the "Buran" detachment.

In effect, this is the creation of a force for internal military operations — not against an external enemy, but against the regime's own society.

And when all of this is combined, the regime's logic becomes clear. On one side, an economy of loyalty is being constructed: business depends on the authorities, contracts are distributed according to political proximity, directors are cleared by officials. On the other side, a coercive infrastructure of suppression is being built: special units, modern weaponry, drone surveillance, operations against protest leaders.

These are two sides of the same system. And here the parallel with Iran becomes unmistakable. The IRGC serves simultaneously as economic and coercive backbone. When we see Belarus simultaneously tightening control over the economy and expanding units for suppressing protests, the conclusion is plain: the regime is not preparing for the country's development. It is preparing to retain power at any cost.

But such a system carries a fundamental flaw. It destroys the economy. 

Growing warehouse stocks at Belarusian enterprises. Source: euroradio.fm

Because economies develop where there is competition, entrepreneurial freedom, and protection of property — not where the primary factor of success is political loyalty. When directors are appointed through executive committees, the most convenient are chosen, not the most capable. When contracts are distributed by loyalty, efficiency disappears. When business fears the authorities, it stops investing and developing.

The country ends up trapped. The economy stagnates. Innovation disappears. Talented people leave. Young people see no future. And we are already witnessing these processes. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have left. Many entrepreneurs have relocated their businesses abroad. Investment is falling. The economy is growing ever more dependent on the state and on external resources.

But the most dangerous consequence is not economic — it is the institutional destruction of the country. When an economy is built on loyalty to a regime, the state ceases to serve society. It serves a narrow group of people in power. The country becomes not an economy of opportunity, but a system for distributing privileges.

History shows: economies built on fear and regime loyalty are never sustainable. Sooner or later they face crisis. But countries that restore entrepreneurial freedom and fair rules begin to grow. And Belarus will become such a country.

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