How the West Can Counteract Lukashenko’s Regime Cooperation with Iran
Under the rule of dictator Lukashenko, Belarus has long ceased to be merely a satellite of Russia. Now, the dictatorial regime is rapidly integrating into the global club of autocracies, including Iran – a state that finances terrorism and supplies Russia with deadly drones. While Lukashenko once merely followed Putin's orders, he is now becoming an active participant in a global alliance of democracy's enemies.
Recent facts presented in an article by Jack Rush in the American publication War on the Rocks, which specializes in security issues, prove that Belarus is pursuing close military-technical cooperation with Tehran. Minsk is not only ready to supply drones to the Russian army but may also become a key hub in the production of Iranian Shahed-136 drones. This makes Belarus not just a war accomplice but a real factor in global destabilization.
The Belarus-Iran Partnership Has Been Decades in the Making
After Lukashenko found himself isolated internationally in 1997, he sought to build warmer relations with regimes that had been isolated for decades, including Iran. The particularly close ties between the regimes in Minsk and Tehran began when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became Iran's president in 2005.
In the second half of the 2000s, cooperation between the regimes strengthened and became more ideological, based on mutual hostility toward the West, as well as shared concerns about the political stability and survival of both dictatorships. At that time, in exchange for promises of participation in oil development and investments, Lukashenko supported Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Lukashenko's attempt to support research and development of Iran’s ballistic missile program in 2011 ultimately led to international sanctions against Belarus. However, military cooperation between Iran and Belarus has only strengthened, particularly through their shared support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the start of the war, both regimes have become two of Moscow’s most loyal allies.
Belarus Became a Mediator in Military Cooperation Between Russia and Iran
In particular, Jack Rush’s article mentions that the 2023 bilateral agreement between Belarus and Iran includes provisions for Belarus to begin producing Shahed-136 drones, a model that is crucial for Russia’s battlefield capabilities in Ukraine. In July 2024, Belarusian military officials presented the “Nomad” drone, which is ostensibly a local development but strikingly similar to the Shahed-136.
According to the author of the article, Russia may soon exert pressure on Iran to accelerate drone production in Belarus. In November 2024, a high-ranking Belarusian military delegation visited an Iranian military university that conducts research and development of unmanned aerial vehicles. Further military cooperation between Tehran and Minsk is expected later this year. This makes Belarus not just an accomplice in war but a real factor in global destabilization.
How the West Can Counter the Growing Partnership Between Iran and Lukashenko’s Regime
To counter the growing partnership between Iran and Lukashenko’s regime, Western countries need to contain these developments. One important tool for such containment, according to the author, is sanctions, particularly those targeting Iran and Lukashenko’s regime by cutting off key resources and financial assets. It is also necessary to improve existing sanctions by closing loopholes and ensuring that violations of restrictions do not go unchecked.
In addition to sanctions, another way to limit the production of Iranian drones in Belarus would be a clear warning from Ukraine regarding Lukashenko. These actions should be taken “in conjunction with efforts to assist the Belarusian people in opposing Lukashenko’s regime by revoking international recognition of his presidency and supporting activities among NGOs and the Belarusian diaspora,” writes the author.
Conclusion: The Regimes in Minsk and Tehran Are Cut from the Same Cloth
Against this backdrop, in early February, U.S. President Donald Trump decided to resume the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. As explained by a representative of the Trump administration and U.S. ambassador to the UN, America will work with key allies to reinstate international sanctions and restrictions on Iran. It is believed that Lukashenko is likely to face new sanctions for his cooperation with Iran if he does not cease his dangerous dealings.
According to The Wall Street Journal, even before his election, Donald Trump planned to drastically tighten sanctions against Iran after taking office and limit Iranian oil sales. Just recently, the U.S. president stated that countries like Iran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. He emphasized, “We cannot allow other countries to get nuclear weapons, not just Iran.” And we remember that just recently, Lukashenko boasted about the "red nuclear button" he received from Putin, while military officials in his regime said they were ready to host the so-called “Nutshell” missile.
How to Stop the Threat? The World Must Act Decisively
In our opinion, ignoring the “Moscow – Minsk – Tehran” axis is fraught with catastrophic consequences. The West must intensify sanctions, fully cutting off financial and technological pathways through which Lukashenko’s regime receives resources. Only strict measures, including international isolation and non-recognition of his rule, can limit the dictator’s ability to contribute to global destabilization.
Furthermore, it is important that Ukraine and its allies send a clear message to Lukashenko: assisting Moscow and Iran in the war will lead to consequences not only economically but also militarily. Lukashenko is betting on cooperation with terrorist regimes — therefore, the world must treat him accordingly.
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