Artsiom Brukhan, Deputy Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, spoke about the concerns of Lukashenko and officials in an interview with Euroradio.
"The first indication that Lukashenko will consider a transition is if there is a majority of 'Belaya Rus' in the House of Representatives, and he himself leads a pro-government party. This would signal that he will not run for another presidential term."
According to the analyst, Lukashenko currently seeks certain guarantees, such as control over the House of Representatives, in order to ensure that laws will not be rewritten.
Is Lukashenko genuinely concerned about his power in Belarus?
"The self-proclaimed leader created the so-called All-Belarusian People's Assembly (APA) and now doesn't know what to do with it. The All-Belarusian People's Assembly itself demonstrates the regime's political transformation. Lukashenko understands that he has inadvertently created a system of dual power. He himself stressed that two authorities cannot coexist in the country. Therefore, Lukashenko is compelled to hold both positions in order to maintain control for another five years. One position is 'president,' and the other is 'head of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly.'"
Are officials worried?
"Yes, their concerns are connected to the influence of Russia and the potential change of the Lukashenko regime to the Kremlin regime. Officials are well aware that if the Russians intervene, they could swiftly be removed from their positions, even at the average and district level. During Lukashenko's tenure, a faction of so-called 'red-green independents' has emerged, who are holding onto their positions."
Artsiom Brukhan emphasized that as Russian influence on Belarus grows, Lukashenko's officials will increasingly emphasize their allegiance to their homeland, independence, and territorial sovereignty.