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Will Lukashenko go for the transit of power?

NAM Deputy head, Artsiom Brukhan, in an interview with "6TV Biełaruś" channel, stated:

"The Constitution now stipulates that presidential elections should take place 'no later than' a certain period, but nothing is said about 'no earlier than.' Early elections for Lukashenko make political sense. Reformatting of the system is taking place in one way or another — the reassignment of the All-Belarusian Assembly, the Parliament — and its logical conclusion should be the presidential election.

Three scenarios should be considered:

The first scenario is that he will run in the 2025 presidential elections in July, according to the latest possible deadline.

The second scenario can take place in February 2025. Lukashenko held "no-choice elections" in February 2024. We saw that the society went through strong repressions, the field was cleared — so the elections were held in silence. Why not hold the same kind of election in February 2025? It's cold outside, people take a break after the Christmas holidays, nobody needs anything — the most ideal situation for a dictator to hold elections. The political calendar in the West is just beginning to function; people in Russia have not yet come to their senses after long holidays.

The third scenario — if the "presidential" campaign of Lukashenko's speeches is already underway, it is quite logical that the election will be organized in the near future, for example, in the summer. Not in August — the month of August still brings up painful memories in people. But, as an option, elections can be held in July — the month when Lukashenko came to power 30 years ago. He really likes this symbolism, so this option also has a right to exist.




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