Wholesale trade in Belarus: a business on the brink of survival

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council

The August 26 meeting of the dictator on the "Belkoopsoyuz" turned into a public verdict on the entire system. Lukashenko hammered the cooperatives over losses of 33 million rubles, for village stores closing, and for the share of trade falling from 25% to 23%. What exactly is the problem?

Belarusian wholesale companies reported results for the first half of 2025, and the numbers on paper even look decent. Revenue grew by 12.6% and reached almost 29 billion rubles. It would seem that the market is moving upward, turnover is increasing — one could talk about growth. But behind the rosy numbers lies a very different reality: wholesale trade today is not a business, but survival on a razor’s edge.

Despite growing revenue, profits are rapidly falling. Companies’ net profit plummeted by almost 46%, and profit from sales fell by 30%. That is, companies are selling more but earning less. This is a classic situation when turnover is chased just to somehow service debts and cover expenses, rather than for development or the future.

The picture is compounded by a monstrous debt burden. Debt payments account for 44.3% of revenue. This means that almost every second ruble earned by wholesale companies goes to servicing loans and interest. The business literally works for banks and creditors, not for itself or its employees. In conditions where profit is almost gone, companies lose the ability to invest in their future, which ultimately leads to stagnation.

But the key problem is not even in the debts and falling profits. The real disaster is that under Lukashenko’s dictatorship, companies cannot apply effective methods to save and develop the business. In a normal economy, a businessman would revise the model, cut costs, find new markets, diversify sales.

The self-appointed "economist" noted: despite the losses, only in 2025, 1.3 million rubles were allocated from the budget for fuel for mobile shops, and governors are obliged by orders from above to finance store repairs. But in fact, even with direct injections, the system is degrading: stores are closing, sellers are leaving due to low wages, while managers receive salaries higher than ministers. "Belkoopsoyuz" is forced to operate not for people and not for the market, but exclusively to maintain an artificial system where resources go to subsidies and maintaining the management apparatus.

This case is not an exception, but the rule. In Lukashenko’s economy, any structure exists not to be effective, but to serve the system.

This is the model of the entire Belarusian economy under Lukashenko — a simulation of work, pumped with subsidies and controlled from above instead of real efficiency.

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