Speech by Ambassador Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management at the press conference on legal responses of the international community to the crimes against humanity committed by the current authoritarian regime of Belarus  1 October 2024, The Hague Madam President-elect, Madam Deputy Minister, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. 375 days, almost a year, have passed since we first formally met with the Madam Deputy Minister and Head of International Legal Representation of the Ministry of Justice of Lithuania and discussed the possibility of making this Referral.  Today, we are here, in the Hague. The Referral is in the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. On the International Criminal Court website, a short remark appeared from Prosecutor Karim Khan that “he can confirm that his Office will conduct a preliminary examination to examine the request”. A short phrase with immense meaning. What does it conceal? First of all , lives, suffering, and losses of hundreds of thousands of victims. Having gone through the terrifying steamroller of repression in Belarus, torture, rape, imprisonment, deprivation of fundamental rights. Having no other choice. They fled their homeland seeking refuge in Lithuania, Poland and other countries. They left their parents, children, friends, never being able to see them again. They left their property, starting their lives anew. And now, having gone through all this, the targeted population was subjected to a new wave of repression. The regime continued to persecute us abroad with monstrous efficiency. Judicial harassment, arrests of relatives and friends, hate speech, threats of violence, intimidation, confiscation and destruction of property in Belarus. This is only part of what Lukashenko and his accomplices are doing in European countries today Secondly , for 4 years, Belarusians lived in a state of complete doom. Our people, having gone through the hell of losses for peaceful defending of democratic values, feel abandoned and forgotten.  However, today, hundreds of thousands of victims have received hope for justice. Hope that one day, the perpetrators will be prosecuted. Thirdly , an incredible job has been done. By the Ministry of Justice of Lithuania, by lawyers and experts whose names I cannot name. In fact, they have created a new precedent. For the first time in the practice of the ICC, a state party to the Rome Statute has referred the situation to the Office of the Prosecutor in a state not party to this Statute. The work done required exceptional professionalism, creativity and courage. Me and my team thank Lithuania, the Ministry of Justice, personally Deputy Minister Gabia Grigaitė and Head of International Legal Representation Richard Dzikowicz, for their amazing work.  I would like to thank our lawyers and my team, the National Anti-Crisis Management, Deputy of the European Parliament Dainius Zalimas and his organization Justice Hub as well as foreign experts who initiated this process in April 2023. 1.5 years of daily work. And this is the result.  Thank you Mrs. President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for your support. And also a special thanks to the organizations that are part of the IAPB, I would like to especially note the Human Rights Center Viasna and the International Committee for Investigation of Torture in Belarus. This day will go down in history. In the history of Belarus – because this is the first and today the most important step towards achieving justice for the Belarusian people, for hundreds of thousands of victims of crimes against humanity committed by the dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices. This day will go down in history.   In Lukashenko's personal history, or, more precisely, the personal criminal case of the dictator, who will go down in history as an international criminal. And now it is the fourth decade when Lukashenko is building his regime of repression and violence. And the formation of this regime is really close to its “highest point”. Think about it – in a country with a population of 9 million people the dictator has already committed hundreds of thousands of crimes against humanity.  Lukashenko has created a whole state policy, as he says, “to clean” the society. All the population perceived as disloyal by his regime is subjected to a conveyor of atrocities. Society is divided into loyal and disloyal. Lukashenko constantly calls the Belarusians, who are subjected to repression, as “fugitives”, “political”, “sharp-hoofed”. But the time has come for justice and fairness. It is your time, Lukashenko, to be held accountable for these crimes. It is time for the rule of law to prevail over the rule of force.  I want to address the highest ranks of his regime.  Lukashenko's train Minsk - The Hague departed today. Lukashenko is already on it. And he will reach his destination. There are no other options now. No way back for Lukashenko. The process of justice set in motion is irreversible. We call on all democratic countries to join and support the process of restoring justice that has been launched by Lithuania. And to take similar actions to give maximum speed to the Minsk-Hague train.  I am sure we do not have excessive expectations of our partners, but a request to use your capabilities to bring Lukashenko and his accomplices to justice. Lukashenko has always dreamed of going down in history. He succeeded. And he will never get rid of it. All history textbooks will remember him not as the first president, but as the last Belarusian dictator and international criminal.  And I want this to be heard not only by him, but also by his circle, his closest civil servants, propagandists. Ask yourself, do you want to share a space with him on this train? Do you want to join him in the Hague?  Or maybe it's finally time to make a decision - and get off this train. Not get on it at all. You know what you need to do. You know where to send the information.  I'm sure there are many of you who want it. Some of you were forced to commit the crimes. But you have a chance to help yourselves, your country, Belarusians and justice. Don't miss it. Get in touch. Lukashenko thought he could “turn the page” of his crimes. No. His “ballad of a dictator” has come to an end. And yes, we'll shut you, Lukashenko, out of big politics. As promised. You're a criminal. Next station is the Hague.  Do you remember the posters people took to the streets in 2020? “Lukashenko to the Hague”, ‘Tribunal’. Did you think that these were just slogans left in the past? No, this is your future.  Today the rule of law prevails. Today we together restore Belarusians' faith in justice. We are writing the history of a new Belarus. Which will begin after the trial of the dictator. An inevitable trial.  We call on all democratic countries  to support the efforts of Lithuania. Use your right under Article 14 of the Rome Statute. Make Justice prevail over impunity. That is what all the Belarusian people want. That is what unites all of us. Desire for justice. I support today's statement by the Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The ratification of the Rome Statute by the new Belarus guarantees that impunity for international crimes will become impossible in our country. No international criminal will be able to escape accountability in new Belarus. Жыве Беларусь!

"This day will go down in the history of Belarus - the first and, to date, the most important step towards achieving justice for the Belarusian people, for hundreds of thousands of victims of crimes against humanity committed by the dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices," said Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, following the Lithuanian government's submission of materials to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court regarding transboundary crimes against humanity, namely deportation and persecution, committed by Lukashenko against Belarusians. The National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) led the preparation of materials regarding the deportation and extraterritorial persecution of Belarusians in exile from the side of the Belarusian democratic society. Since April 2023, the NAM has collected and prepared materials on crimes against humanity committed against the Belarusian people for a potential submission to the International Criminal Court. In July 2023, the NAM contributed to an extensive report prepared by the Justice Hub Center for Law and Democracy, which outlines the facts of these crimes, the evidence of their commission, and the tools for holding those responsible to account. Some of these crimes, namely deportation and the persecution of Belarusians in exile, are transboundary in nature, as they occur both within Belarus and in the territories of the States that are parties to the Rome Statute. The materials collected by the NAM were subsequently submitted to the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice. The Lithuanian side reached a clear conclusion — there is sufficient grounds to believe that Lukashenko and his accomplices have been committing transboundary crimes against humanity. Today, the Lithuanian government, having supplemented this information with international expertise, submitted the relevant documents to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to initiate an investigation. Only a government of a state party to the Rome Statute can take such a step. Consequently, for the first time in the ICC history, a State Party has referred to a situation in a Non-State Party under the jurisdictional basis which provides that so long as part of the unlawful conduct occurs on the territory of a State Party then the Court could have jurisdiction. Also, for the first time, the Prosecutor of the ICC has the opportunity to investigate the situation regarding crimes against humanity committed in the Belarusian context. What exactly has been submitted to the International Criminal Court? Currently, the ICC has facts regarding three types of crimes against humanity committed by Lukashenko’s regime: unlawful deportation,   persecution of Belarusians abroad, and  other inhumane acts Deportation  — Lukashenko's regime forced the civilian population to leave the territory of Belarus by creating an atmosphere of fear and terror through inhumane, brutal, and degrading treatment, politically motivated deprivation of liberty, torture, rape, murder, denial of fundamental rights, and other forms of criminal actions. According to the assessment by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, approximately 300,000 Belarusians have been forced to leave Belarus since 2020. This represents about 3.5% of the country’s total population, which clearly confirms the significant scale of the crimes. The majority of the victims of deportation are in Lithuania and Poland. In this regard, a similar step by the Polish side, where most of the victims are located, is particularly important. Persecution of Belarusians residing abroad — this crime involves a series of grave human rights violations committed by Lukashenko's regime against those Belarusians forced into exile, including: threats to life and health; persecution of relatives residing in Belarus; unlawful deprivation of property; in absentia and politically motivated convictions in violation of the procedural standards for such trials; denial of passports issuance, preventing individuals from verifying their identity and consequently restricting access to government services. persecution of a specific group of people — the so-called "fugitives"; use of hate speech. “Officials, I appeal to you. Many of you are becoming cogs in the huge criminal, repressive machine of Lukashenko's regime; you see only part of the picture and are convinced that nothing terrible is really happening. But true horror is occurring. The 'top brass' of Lukashenko, while committing crimes against humanity, is using you. You need to stop helping them and instead run from them. Over the years of his rule, Lukashenko has created a state apparatus of mass repression. This is the essence of his state policy — a policy of persecution, discrimination against dissenters, and purging society. The current leadership that shapes and implements this regime's policy includes Lukashenko, Karpenkov, Tertel, Kochanova, Karaev, Kubrakov, Shved, Hora, Khomenko, Eismont, Azarenok, Mukavozchik, and others. They will stand trial," emphasized Pavel Latushka. We call on other countries to take similar steps as Lithuania. The "Minsk — The Hague" train with passenger Lukashenko has left, and it cannot be stopped now. Lukashenko and his associates will be held accountable. We need the support of as many countries as possible to ensure that accountability comes as soon as possible. We are confident that this will lead to an arrest warrant for Lukashenko. We are grateful to the Lithuanian government, to Deputy Minister of Justice, Gabija Grigaitė-Daugirdė, and to Lithuania's representative for international legal accountability, Ričard Dzikovič. We thank Member of the European Parliament Dainius Zalimas, the “Viasna” Human Rights Center, the “Justice Hub” Center for Law and Democracy (Lithuania), the International Committee for the Investigation of Torture in Belarus, “Redress” (UK), and “Dignity” (Denmark) for their support. We highly appreciate the work being done by the International Accountability Platform for Belarus (IAPB) and the organizations that are part of it. After the democratic changes, Belarus will become a full participant of the international criminal justice system. This will ensure that no international criminal can escape accountability in a democratic, independent, European Belarus.

Original article: reformby.org The Council of Europe has published a practical guide that aims to help European parliamentarians and politicians provide support to Belarusians in exile in the organization's member states.  The document includes recommendations on various aspects of the life of Belarusians abroad and is intended to simplify the process of adaptation and preservation of cultural identity for them. The 107-page document, prepared by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), is entitled "Luxembourg Solutions: Issues and Prospects"  and is available in three languages: English, French and Belarusian. The Guide proposes policy steps and recommendations on key issues related to the life of Belarusians in exile, such as legal entry and stay, freedom of movement, access to consular services, educational and professional opportunities, and assistance in developing entrepreneurship abroad. The document devotes significant space to the preservation and promotion of cultural identity. The Guide is the result of a conference held in Luxembourg in June 2024 and continues the work started in the report "Addressing the specific problems faced by Belarusians in exile" , prepared by Paul Galles (Luxembourg, EPP/CD). PACE adopted a corresponding resolution in June 2023, on the basis of which this document was developed. The guide is also accompanied by literary material "Guide to Belarus / Davednik pa Belarusi" , created by the famous Belarusian writer and journalist Sasha Filipenko, whose works have been translated into more than 15 languages. The Council of Europe noted that this material offers a personal and emotional vision of the author, who was forced to leave his country, and conveys his experiences of life in exile.

Pavel Latushka:  Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador How does Lukashenko help Russia fight against Ukraine? The Belarusian military-industrial complex is closely connected with Russia and fulfills orders from its defense industry. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, this cooperation has acquired a multifaceted character and is of strategic importance for Lukashenko personally. Russia relies on Belarusian components in many strategic military projects being implemented. For such actions, both Russia and the Lukashenko’s regime fall under sanctions from democratic countries. For example, the Integral holding, which specializes in the production of integrated circuits and liquid crystal indicators, has been under US sanctions since the end of February 2022, and then Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Japan followed suit. In July 2023, Integral announced the signing of a contract for the supply of a large batch of electronics to Russia. The company’s CEO Andrey Buinevich noted that "This step is part of the implementation of the roadmap for the development of production and development of microelectronics in the Union State". Already in March 2024, the Integral holding signed a contract for the supply of products with the Ulyanovsk Instrument-Making Design Bureau, which is under sanctions from the EU, the USA, Ukraine, Canada, Switzerland and New Zealand as a developer and manufacturer of military electronic products that were used by the Russian armed forces in the war against Ukraine.   Recently, Belarusian microcircuits in Russia were officially equated to Russian products for the first time. So to speak, they harmonized cooperation so that when introducing further sanctions, no one would have any doubts about the need and correctness of harmonizing sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko’s regime. And Deputy General Director of Integral OJSC Alexey Tsivako reported that the "Roadmap for the Development of Microelectronic Production of the Integral Holding for the Period Until 2030, Taking into Account the Needs of Enterprises of the Russian Federation" was signed. Is this not confirmation of the validity of the sanctions already imposed against Integral and the grounds for imposing sanctions by the EU? The same Alexey Tsivako reported that "The specificity of the enterprise is that we practically do not produce anything for individuals" and that "The main sales market is the Russian Federation, which accounts for about 78% of exports". And what should democratic countries do in this case — lift sanctions and not introduce new ones? How should Ukraine react to this — not call for Lukashenko's regime to be held accountable and not notice his role? What should we do — not continue to put pressure on the insolent, lying and criminal Lukashenko’s regime and stop? The answer to these three questions is no, no and no again.

"It is currently impossible to organize truly competitive elections in Belarus, so what Lukashenko calls 'elections' in 2025 are nothing more than another attempt by the dictator to reappoint himself to the post of president that he has usurped" , — said Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management Pavel Latushka during a meeting with Australian Ambassador to Poland Benjamin Hayes . As part of ongoing consultations with diplomatic representatives of democratic countries, Pavel Latushko met with the Australian Ambassador to Poland on September 23. Consultations have already taken place with the heads of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, ambassadors and diplomats of Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Sweden, as well as with the EU Special Representative for Human Rights. Pavel Latushka listed specific steps that Australia can take to truly help Belarusians get rid of the dictatorship as quickly as possible and return democracy to Belarus: support Belarusian democratic forces : we must not forget about Belarus, it is necessary to raise the Belarusian issue at all international platforms; do not wait for changes in Russia, support democratic transformations in Belarus now , understand the difference between the Belarusian society, which does not support the war and Lukashenko, and the Russian one; support Belarusian independent media  — this is the only way to fight the propaganda of the Lukashenko’s regime and Russian propaganda, into which huge funds are poured; support the cultural identity of Belarusians. Separately, Pavel Latushka spoke about the III conference "New Belarus", which was held in Vilnius on August 3-4. The Australian Ambassador was given the declarations adopted during the conference: the Declaration on Accountability and Restoration of Justice, the Declaration on Foreign Policy Priorities of Democratic Belarus and the " Platform 2025 " . Pavel Latushka stressed the importance of continuing the sanctions pressure on Lukashenko's regime and the need for further harmonization of sanctions against Lukashenko's regime and Russia. The Australian Ambassador was also given a list of Lukashenko's accomplices responsible for political repressions against Belarusians . Benjamin Hayes stressed that international norms are important for Australia, and those who violate them must be held accountable for their actions . The Australian Ambassador assured that his country actively supports the democratic aspirations of Belarusians and intends to continue to support them, and will also use its voice in the international arena to defend democratic values. Pavel Latushka stressed the importance of holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for crimes against humanity — against Belarusians, for a war crime — the deportation of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine, as well as for an act of aggression against a neighboring state — Ukraine.

Why a policy of realpolitik towards Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is doomed to fail Original article: novayagazeta.eu “If the Belarusian opposition asked me for advice, I would tell them to agree to anything Lukashenko says in exchange for free parliamentary elections and parliamentary immunity,” Ukraine’s former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko said in a recent interview with independent Belarusian media outlet Zerkalo. Seeing such statements reminds me how strong faith in democracy is among those who have had the good fortune to see it in practice and to live in a democracy. How incontrovertible it is to people with a well-established democratic way of thinking. And how this belief can sometimes lead to an assumption that you can get regimes diametrically opposed to democracy to agree to a smooth transition to democracy of their own volition and agree to set the process of their own self-destruction in motion themselves. Meanwhile, Belarus is into its fourth decade of Lukashenko’s dictatorial rule. And in this fourth decade, there are clear signs that the transformation of his regime from an authoritarian dictatorship to a totalitarian one is nearing its completion. Any signs of a loosening of his grip, a thaw, liberalisation or democratisation are conspicuous by their absence. The Belarusian Doctor of Sociology Henadz Korshunau published the latest section of his Barometer of Repression study  at the end of July. It is essential reading for anyone who really wants to understand the current scale of repression in Belarus. It gives us an accurate assessment of the situation based on facts, rather than subjective feelings or assumptions. In its fourth decade of Lukashenko’s rule, there are clear signs that Belarus’s transformation from an authoritarian dictatorship to a totalitarian one is nearing its completion. Namely, the number of political prisoners was up, the number of new criminal cases against Belarusians who disagree with the Lukashenko regime is at its highest in the last four years, 50,000 people have been detained since the start of the 2020 election campaign and more than 1,700 Belarusian nonprofits have been shut down since 2021, and these are conservative estimates. Welcome to the reality of living in a dictatorship, democracy’s alternative reality, where democratic thinking often goes to die. Democratic thinking does not and cannot work in such an alternative reality, as reality in a dictatorship functions according to a completely different set of rules. The rules are simple and the overriding principle is “crush or be crushed”. And all these years Lukashenko has been busy crushing his opponents, journalists, peaceful protesters or political prisoners. He crushes civil rights, freedoms, civil society and private business — anything that poses an internal threat. His aggression has long since crossed Belarus’s borders too. In addition to the repression at home, the Lukashenko regime has nothing against external terror either: whether by hijacking  a civilian aircraft, launching a hybrid migration war  with the EU, sending spies and saboteurs  to neighbouring European countries or complicity in the war against Ukraine. Crush or be crushed. We all saw the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory  on 24 February 2022. The massacre in Bucha . More than 800 missile strikes launched  from Belarus. At least 3,500 Ukrainian children deported  directly by the Lukashenko regime. We see the assistance the Lukashenko regime has provided to Russia in circumventing  sanctions. We see the mass transfer of weapons to Russia. We see the production of weapons for Russia by the Belarusian military-industrial complex. And who can forget the redeployment   of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus? We see attacks on Polish border guards. We saw the murder  of a Polish soldier on the border. We have seen sabotage and arson  on Polish territory. And, forgive me for a personal take, but at the end of July I testified to the Polish Prosecutor’s Office in a case of incitement to murder. The target was me , and foreign secret services were to be used to take my life. Yet we still see proposals suggesting we can come to some sort of agreement with Lukashenko. Or make concessions to him. Sadly, some proposals have even come from people who identify as members of the Belarusian democratic forces. Proposals to recognise the regime as legitimate, to send European ambassadors, to review sanctions, to implement a “flexible policy” and compromise with Lukashenko. The proposals may look like they come from a parallel reality, but that is the reality of Lukashenko’s dictatorship, and the people making them are effectively calling for normalising and accepting the regime. Despite being capitulation plain and simple, such proposals do have a certain basis in reality and are partly built on the West’s largely ill-defined and indecisive position towards the Lukashenko regime, which can hardly be called a strategy in its current form. The position would appear to be one of applying pressure on the regime, but not too much. Impose trade sanctions, but don’t create too much of an economic shock. Harmonise sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and Russia for the war — but not completely. Declare at the highest level the need to bring the Lukashenko regime to book for crimes against humanity and war crimes — but don’t carry it through. And what do regimes like Lukashenko’s see in such a stand? Weakness. A chance to go on committing their crimes, to pursue terror, to unleash aggression. Because the only language they understand is the language of power. They speak no other language. All they see in half-measures and attempts at diplomacy is a manifestation of weakness, room for manoeuvre and an opportunity to up the ante. And they exploit that. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on her proposed alternative passport scheme, collective responsibility for the war and beating Alexander Lukashenko at the ballot box What we are seeing is positional action, a reactive rather than proactive tactic. It is a tactic without a strategy. After all, a strategy implies clearly defined goals, and knowing exactly what you want to achieve. And tactics should bring you closer to that goal, tie into that strategy and actively contribute to it. What should the West’s basic strategic goal towards Belarus be? I think it’s obvious — democratisation, followed by the integration of Belarus into the European community and European civilisation. Is that possible while Lukashenko prolongs and cements his dictatorship? Of course not. Is it possible to achieve anything other than his further entrenchment with half-measures and concessions? By recognising the regime as legitimate? By lifting sanctions, absolving him of all legal liability? No, it is impossible. Lukashenko’s 30-year rule is proof positive of that, and objective facts clearly outline the trajectory of the regime’s evolution — a totalitarian dictatorship protected by the empire next door. North Korea 2.0. You’d be hard pushed to find anyone willing to say that realpolitik as applied to dictators who unleashed bloody wars, mass repression and genocide has ever been a successful “strategy”. To this end, the realpolitik approach, whose adherents propose compromises with Lukashenko, is no longer just a delusion, the self-deception of idealistic democrats who believe that gradual change in such a dictatorship is possible and that there is so much as a grain of sanity and flexibility within it. It is something else entirely. It is conceding the dictatorship’s right to exist. But once you concede that a dictator living and ruling on the principle of “crush or be crushed” has the “rule of force”, there is only one conclusion he can draw — that he can be confident both of his power and his impunity. History knows many such examples. And you’d be hard pushed to find anyone willing to say that realpolitik as applied to dictators who unleashed bloody wars, mass repression and genocide has ever been a successful “strategy”. And we can clearly see where this approach has led as regards Lukashenko. It’s as if we can see but don’t want to notice. There is a concept of eyes on the prize, but when it comes to a strategy for Belarus, the opposite seems to be the case. Without identifying and setting a goal, it is impossible to move from tactics to strategy. The longer that takes, the longer the Belarusian question remains a bleeding wound.

18 September 2024, Warsaw Krasiński Palace Mr. President Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ladies and gentlemen Ministers Your Excellencies Dear ladies and gentlemen, But I know that I am not alone, that Belarusians are not alone . After all, along with responsibility, we also feel great support. This is a powerful motivation for me personally and for everyone who fights for democracy in Belarus. I thank the Chapter of the Lech Wałęsa Solidarity Award, Mr. President, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, His Excellency Radosław Sikorski for your initiative to award the award to a Belarusian. I perceive this as an important strategic signal about the priority of democratic changes in Belarus for Poland's foreign policy. Thank you very much, Mr. Minister. I thank everyone who fights for Belarus. In this hall, I would especially like to thank former presidential candidates of Belarus Aliaksandr Milinkevich and Uladzimir Niakliayeu, the outstanding Belarusian historian Uladzimir Arlou, the representative of the Belarusian minority in Poland Jauhen Wapa, and everyone present at the ceremony today for the fact that we are sharing this important event together. Thank you to everyone who supports the struggle of Belarusians for freedom and democracy. Solidarity is an incredible force. I want to express words of support and solidarity with Poland in these difficult days. With all the Poles affected by the flood. And words of admiration for the solidarity of the Polish people. Our hearts are with you. And Poland is an example of how the power of solidarity changes the course of history. Many Belarusians draw inspiration from the Lech Wałęsa Solidarity movement. And it is a great honor for me to be awarded the award named after the man who changed the course of European history. The victory of Polish Solidarity is a victory for all of Europe. Of which Belarus is a part. And I believe that Belarusian Solidarity, the rise of which we all saw in 2020, will also win. I believe because we have your example and your support. Poland is a strategic partner for democratic Belarus . Today – for democratic forces and society. Tomorrow – for a democratic state. And this tomorrow will come faster than it may seem. Our common tomorrow. Let me tell you a personal story. When I was a teenager and a school student, we lived in the same room with my older brother, who, unfortunately, is no longer in this world. And he listened to Polskie Radio, Program Pierwszy, news and, as I remember now, Magazyn Muzyczny Rytm all the time, every day. I remember hearing the song “O Magdaleno” then. I don’t know if anyone here remembers this song, but that’s why I’m telling you about it. Back then, when I saw my brother buying Polish newspapers – yes, at that time you could only buy “Trybuna Ludu”, it was the 80s – but then my desire to learn the language of the neighboring country was born. Then the culture, the history. And I realized how deeply we are connected. Belarus is part of the European historical and cultural heritage. Later, as the Minister of Culture, I had the honor of carrying out the restoration of the Nesvizh Palace, Mir Castle – the former residences of the Radziwills, UNESCO monuments. To support the creation of the Czeslaw Niemen Museum. As an ambassador, to initiate the opening of the Adam Mickiewicz monument in Minsk. This is what is in Belarus and belongs to Belarusian history and culture. And this is what simultaneously connects us, Belarusians and Poles. There are many more such examples and connections. We are connected by a common European history. After all, Belarus is a European country, Belarusians are a European people. Belarus is not Russia. And our common European history must continue. It is all the more important to have strategic allies on this path – the path of Belarus's return to European space, to the European family. I am convinced that strategic partnership with Poland, with the EU as a whole, will be a priority for a free democratic Belarus. Its beginning has already been made – Poland is already our key partner and ally, Poland's contribution to supporting Belarusian democratic forces and the democratic aspirations of Belarusians is invaluable. We are grateful to the Polish government and Polish society for the assistance provided to Belarusians who are forced to leave their homeland due to mass repressions. And all this is a huge reserve for the future, the future of a full-fledged strategic partnership – a partnership at the state level. I have no doubt that this future will come. Because I, like millions of Belarusians, believe in democracy. Even when some European democracies doubt themselves. My message to such countries is to be extremely careful in your doubts. People like Lukashenko are born from the public's doubts about democratic values.  If you doubt democracy, you risk very quickly falling into their power. They will take away your freedom, rights and dignity. They will set your countries back in development for decades, exchanging it for dependence on cheap Russian energy. I know that you are already seeing and hearing such words. Be careful. These are signs that democracy is in danger.  The Polish people know very well how difficult it is to fight for it, how difficult it is to acquire it. Belarusians, unfortunately, know how easy it is to lose it. And what price we have to pay to get it back. Lukashenko's regime has committed hundreds of thousands (!) of crimes against humanity in Belarus, including murders, mass torture, rape with police batons of women, men, children, mass deportations. Only 4 years after the events of 2020, he plunged the country into the most massive repressions that Europe has not seen in the last 50 years. This is a permanent repressive hell that does not stop for a single day.  On the contrary, all reports from human rights activists say that the repressions only continue to escalate. There are currently 1,330 officially recognized political prisoners in the regime's prisons. Among them are Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, journalist and activist of the Polish minority Andrzej Poczobut, former presidential candidate Mikalai Statkevich, linguist Natalia Dulina, and socio-political activist Maria Kalesnikava. It would take hours to list them all... And this is only the situation inside Belarus. But the regime's crimes have gone far beyond its borders.  Poland feels it first-hand. Sabotage. Espionage. Information warfare and cyberattacks. Repression of the Polish national minority. The migration crisis, which has been going on since 2021 and which has already resulted in casualties among the Polish military. The blood of the deceased Polish soldier, Mateusz Sitek, is on Lukashenko's hands. Let's call a spade a spade – the Lukashenko’s regime is waging a real hybrid war against Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and the European Union.  And it began to destroy the regional security system long before February 2022. And what happened next? An act of aggression. Yes, this is how international law interprets the provision of territory and infrastructure for a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine by the Lukashenko’s regime. The massacre in the Kyiv region, all that blood – on the hands of the Lukashenko’s regime. More than 800 missile strikes on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus – on the hands of the Lukashenko’s regime. The transfer and production of weapons, helping Russia bypass sanctions, organizing a war crime: the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus – this is what the Lukashenko’s regime is still doing. Someone will tell you – "not everything is so clear-cut". And someone will go further and say that all this should be treated "pragmatically". After all, this is supposedly Realpolitik. But is anyone present really ready to agree that in the 21st century, in Europe, a totalitarian dictatorship is being built, mass repressions are taking place, mass crimes against humanity and war crimes are being committed? I am sure that I will not see any raised hands in the hall. And that means that today, from this hall, Lukashenko should receive a message: Dictator, do you want to turn the page? No. Your book is already over. Today, a bandit is in power in Belarus. He commits 3 out of 4 of the most serious international crimes. There are entire volumes of evidence of Lukashenko's crimes. But the tools are in the hands of our partners in democratic countries. I urge you to use them. Lukashenko should be put on the international wanted list. Accountability must follow. It is important to restore the faith of Belarusians in justice and in the effectiveness of democracy. They say that you can't choose your neighbors. But that's not entirely true. United Europe has this opportunity – to choose. To choose which Belarus you will live next to. I am addressing our European partners. If there were a democratic government in Minsk today, there might not have been a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. If today you buy Lukashenko's lies and leave Belarusians alone in the fight against his regime, then war could come to the European Union. Lukashenko's regime is a permanent threat to European security. This is a fact. But the key to security in Europe also lies in Belarus. In a democratic Belarus. The majority of Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko. The potential for democratic change in Belarus, the potential of Belarusian society is much higher than in Russia. And we are aware that the future of Belarus is in the hands of the Belarusian people. At the beginning of my speech, I said: accepting this award is a great honor. But it is also a great responsibility. I am grateful that Belarusians have someone to share it with. After all, our common history is our common responsibility.  We are writing it together. The history of the future – an independent, democratic and European Belarus. I dedicate this award to my father Pavel and my older brother Andrei Latushka, who fought for a free Belarus until the last day of their lives. To my cousin Anatoly Latushka, a political prisoner. I owe it to them to continue the fight. And to see it through to the end.  Long live Belarus!

Theses of Pavel Latushka's speech at the "Rose-Roth" seminar organized by the Polish Parliament and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Panel "Internal Dynamics of Belarus and the Resilience of Civil Society" Warsaw, September 17, 2024 I thank Madam President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for her opening speech. Dear Madam Chairperson of the Polish Delegation Ionna Kuzlik, Dear Mr. Vice-President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Marcos Perestrello, Madam Moderator Vadai Agnes, Dear Members of the Parliaments, Representatives of the Diplomatic Corps. "We must have a democratic offer for the citizens of Belarus. For those who said clearly during the 2020 elections that they see their future in the Western community, and not on the side of the Eastern dictatorships. I am sure that Minsk will sooner or later find itself on the bright side of power",  — this is a quote from yesterday's speech by Senate Marshal Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, and I thank her and, in her person, the Polish authorities, the Polish parliament, for this principled position. Is the Belarusian regime a problem for today's European security?  My answer is yes. And a democratic Belarus is the key to security in Europe. I remember a conversation at the French Foreign Ministry a year ago, a high-ranking French diplomat told me: "We made a mistake by not realizing in 2020 what the Lukashenko’s regime could do in its repressions against Belarusians and in support of Russia's aggression against Ukraine". I thought: it's like eating a bar of dark chocolate. On the one hand, it is sweet  that this realization has come, and on the other hand, it is bitter that it has come too late. If we imagine today that there is a democratic government in Minsk, would a war between Russia and Ukraine be possible? More likely no than yes. At the very least, it would not have had such terrible consequences for the Ukrainian people and the security of Europe as we see today. But we cannot turn back history , so today I would like to address you, esteemed parliamentarians of NATO member states: is it in the interests of Europe to preserve the totalitarian regime of dictator Lukashenko in Belarus? I am sure that it is not. I am convinced that the interests of European security are met by: Abolition of totalitarianism in Belarus Preservation of an independent, democratic and European Belarus   Is it possible to negotiate with the dictator in Belarus, who is the antipode of democracy, so that he goes for gradual democratization? My answer is unequivocal — no. Democratization for him is self — destruction.  Long-term pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime has never been applied before. To step back from the pressure is to repeat the circle. Therefore, a comprehensive strategy is needed, the goal of abolishing the Lukashenko’s regime is needed, and concrete actions are needed. All these 4 years, with all my gratitude to our partners in democratic countries, we have seen a slow reaction to the aggressive actions of regimes that escalate the situation and constantly raise the stakes. Why do regimes do this? Dictators understand only the language of power, and democracies still speak to them in a diplomatic dialect, which is perceived by regimes as a manifestation of weakness.  We must admit that today the only country in the world that has a clear strategy towards Belarus is the Russian Federation . The Western world has not yet adopted a proactive strategy towards a democratic Belarus.  The policy towards the Lukashenko’s regime is reactive, not proactive. We realize that Russia has a strategic goal — to include Belarus in Russia , and at the present stage, to subjugate dictator Lukashenko as much as possible as its puppet. At the same time, dictator Lukashenko is building a totalitarian system inside the country in order to destroy all the democratic intentions of Belarusians. Lukashenko fatally lost the elections in 2020, retains power thanks to Russia and massively repressing the Belarusian society.  To understand what is happening in Belarus today, I will give you a few figures. Today, there are about 1,400 political prisoners  in Belarus, many of whom are latent political prisoners; The criminal prosecution of Belarusians who disagree with Lukashenko's regime has reached a level of more than 450 criminal cases per quarter — an absolute maximum over the past 4 years ; Since 2020, the number of detentions for political reasons known to human rights activists is about 65,000 (!) people ; Since 2020, 1,700 NGOs have been liquidated, which is more than 50% of those that existed before 2020 ; All independent media have been liquidated ; All 11 opposition political parties have been liquidated; According to the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 300,000 Belarusians have been deported from Belarus . One example: I am a delegate of the Coordinating Council — our Proto-Parliament, and in May 2024 we had direct competitive elections. My electoral list won, we got 35% of the votes. What did Lukashenko do? He publicly stated, and then implemented it in relation to all participants in the elections: criminal cases were initiated against 257 delegates , almost all of them had their property seized in Belarus. But he went further, he started detaining our mothers and fathers . Maybe this question is inappropriate, but are any of you, members of democratic parliaments, ready to shake hands with this dictator who carries out such repressions against your colleagues? I hope, I'm sure not. There are glasses on your tables from which you drink water. Do you know what a glass means for a political prisoner in Belarus? It's a cell that you can't sit in. But you can only stand all the time. Which has a concrete floor. In 2024, Belarus detained hundreds of people for helping and transferring food to political prisoners, most of them women. And Lukashenko ordered special bullying of elderly women . They were put in such cells barefoot, for several hours, by women who were 60-70 years old. It's torture and it happens every day. The police raped men, women, and children with batons. 6 political prisoners were killed in prisons. Lukashenko commits the most massive repressions in the last 50 years of European history, which he does not stop for a single one . Nobel Peace Laureate Ales Bialiatski, journalist, public figure, representative of the Polish minority in Belarus Andrzej Poczobut, cultural figures, lawyers, public figures, historians, budget workers, workers — all categories of citizens are in prison. Lukashenko has recently carried out a number of so-called targeted "pardons" of political prisoners. But we need to understand this clearly. Firstly, this is a deeply erroneous term when applied to Lukashenko's actions. You cannot pardon innocent people whom you have thrown behind bars on false, politically motivated sentences. Secondly, it is important that people are released from prison, but these people are free only conditionally, with severely curtailed rights and under the permanent control of law enforcement agencies. They remain repressed . And thirdly, having "pardoned" some, Lukashenko's regime has thrown other Belarusians behind bars and opened hundreds more criminal cases. The repressions have not stopped, neither qualitatively nor quantitatively. On the contrary, they are growing. The repressions must stop. As long as they continue, it is pointless to look for "positive signals" in Lukashenko's actions . We must not forget that the dictator committed an act of state terrorism, hijacked a civilian Ryanair plane. The dictator began in 2021 and continues a migration war  against all neighbors of EU members (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia). The dictator provided in 2022 all military and civilian infrastructure for the Russian army  to start aggression against Ukraine, continues to supply weapons to Russia. He will declare that he placed Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus . I constantly ask myself, as a lawyer, as a diplomat, what else should Lukashenko do to bring the last dictator of Europe to justice? Of the 4 most serious international crimes, he has committed three : A crime against humanity  — against the Belarusian people; A war crime  — the deportation of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus; An act of aggression  against a neighboring state — Ukraine.   Until he committed the fourth — genocide . Here in Poland, we see attacks on Polish border guards, causing them serious injuries and mutilations. We saw the murder of a Polish soldier on the border with Belarus. We saw sabotage, arson on the territory of Poland and Lithuania, organized by Lukashenko's special services. Forgive me if I get personal, but at the end of July I testified at the National Prosecutor's Office of Poland in a case of incitement to murder... me with the participation of foreign special services. And now the Western world has a choice. Either do what they have been doing for 30 years with regard to Lukashenko , start communicating with him, but we see the result of these five-year cycles, the facts I have given above. Or start implementing a strategy to support a democratic Belarus. So that democratic changes take place in Belarus, and Belarus becomes a donor of stability in the region. The main lesson we learn from the experience of democratic transformations in European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Ukraine, Lithuania and others is that no one except Belarusians can solve the problem of dictatorship in Belarus. The Belarusian people must regain their subjectivity within the country . This is our strategic task, including that of democratic forces. How can our partners help us?  And this is one of the key elements of a possible strategy that I spoke about earlier. We need to recognize the difference between Russian and Belarusian society — the majority of Russians support the war and support Putin  — this is reality, unlike Russians, the majority of Belarusians do not support the war and do not support Lukashenko . Where should we start changing the situation — with Russia or with Belarus? Has anyone thought about this? Everyone is convinced that we need to start with Russia. And I say — no, we need to start with Belarus. Western experts have convinced politicians that Putin will swallow Belarus. Putin wanted to eat lunch, but he will break his teeth on the main course, Ukraine, and for dessert - Belarus. And I say: he will not eat this dessert, because 97% of Belarusians want to live in an independent Belarus. In order for Belarus not to be absorbed by Russia, it is important not to allow Belarus to become the North Korea of ​​Europe , it is important not to close the doors to Europe for Belarusians. Again, political will is needed, but is it worth betting on Lukashenko in this situation? My answer is no, because betting on a dictator means betraying Belarusians who are fighting for freedom, it means turning a blind eye to his crimes, it means betraying European values, betting on Lukashenko is a tactic. Tomorrow Lukashenko will be gone, he will die, and all bets were on Lukashenko. Therefore, my formula is to bet on the Belarusian people, but for this we need the political will to adopt a strategy: Sign a declaration on cooperation between the institutions of democratic forces of Belarus and the EU. For the first time in Europe, we have a stable system of democratic institutions in exile, they are an alternative to the Lukashenko regime: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is the president-elect , the United Transitional Cabinet  is the executive body of the democratic forces of Belarus, the Coordination Council  is a representative body of the democratic forces of Belarus, elected for the first time in direct elections in May of this year; Do not close border crossings for passenger traffic; Issue more visas to Belarusians; Increase support for independent media many times over.  Russian propaganda and Lukashenko's propaganda are investing huge financial resources in changing the mentality of Belarusians, making Russians out of us, and Lukashenko is helping Russians and making "tin soldiers" out of bedlarusians. If this happens, then in a few years the fortifications that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are building on the border will be in demand; Provide thousands of scholarships in European universities for Belarusians.  After all, Russia provides so much every year, thus forming its fifth column; Lukashenko plans to reappoint himself to the post he usurped in 2025.  I appeal to parliamentarians today to make public statements about not recognizing what Lukashenko is organizing in Belarus as "elections" . He has no right to appoint them, he is illegitimate. Thousands of political prisoners in prisons, 2 candidates for the post of president in the last elections are also in prison, opposition parties, independent media, more than 1700 NGOs have been destroyed, repressions are increasing every day. About a million Belarusians living beyond the ruble are deprived, by the decision of the dictator, of the right to participate in elections. We need your open, honest position. Each of you has a Twitter, publish your position already, why wait tomorrow; I appeal to those countries where parliamentary groups for cooperation with the democratic Belarus have not been formed. It already has an elected representative body — the   Coordination Council. I am asking you to create such groups and establish cooperation with the Coordination Council and the United Transitional Cabinet; Last but not least. Support the identity and motivate Belarusians, demonstrate the European perspective and raise the issue of Lukashenko's responsibility for crimes against Belarusians. We are not asking for F-16s and Leopards, hand them over to Ukraine in as many quantities as possible. Bring Lukashenko to justice, give us the opportunity to split the elites.

The other day, Deputy Head of the Cabinet, Head of the NAM Pavel Latushka held a bilateral meeting with the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Simonas Satunas. "We will continue to work with the Lithuanian government to increase sanctions pressure on Lukashenko's regime until the regime stops repression, releases all political prisoners, stops the migration war on the border with the European Union, and stops supporting Russia in its aggression against Ukraine",  — Pavel Latushka noted after the meeting. Pavel Latushka informed the deputy minister about:  the main goal of the work of the National Anti-Crisis Management: using the existing international legal mechanisms, to bring the dictator Lukashenko and his accomplices   to accountability  for crimes against humanity against the Belarusian people and other international crimes;  lack of conditions for conducting competitive and transparent elections in Belarus in 2025. Simonas Satunas noted that if the so-called "elections" in Belarus take place in the same manner as the preparations for them, Lukashenko's regime can expect the next stage of sanctions. Due to the fact that Simonas Satunas is responsible for sanctions policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, special attention was paid to sanctions issues at the meeting. Pavel Latushka emphasized that the existing "gaps" between the two dictatorial regimes allow Lukashenko to receive the products necessary to support Russian aggression in Ukraine . The issue of increased control over the implementation of already imposed sanctions and the need for an integrated approach to this issue to prevent the circumvention of sanctions restrictions was also discussed. Simonas Satunas noted that he is in favor of further harmonization of sanctions against Lukashenko's regime and Russia. Pavel Latushka drew the special attention of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania to the ongoing repressions in Belarus. Every day, the regime continues its politically motivated persecution. Dozens of new political prisoners are jailed every month. Arrests of Belarusians returning from abroad continue. Those who provide assistance to political prisoners also fall under repression. In connection with the fact that the team of the NAM sent a request to the Finance Minister of Lithuania regarding Belarusian cars "stuck" in the port of Klaipeda, the deputy minister presented the position of the Lithuanian side on this issue. The issue of the ban on the entry of vehicles with Belarusian registration into the territory of Lithuania was also touched upon. "The substantive dialogue with the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania demonstrates the coincidence of the positions of the United Transitional Cabinet and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania on fundamental issues of further policy towards the Lukashenko’s regime. During the meeting, they noted not only the importance of sanctions pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime, but also the need for international cooperation in the protection of human rights and democratic principles, as well as the need for separation between the Lukashenko’s regime and Belarusians who oppos war and dictatorship",  — Pavel Latushka said.

"Since the suppression of Belarusian protests against the falsified presidential elections of 2020, Lukashenko has been pursuing a large-scale and systematic state policy to suppress dissent",  — said Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the NationalAnti-Crisis Management Pavel Latushka  at the international conference " Accountability for Crimes and Human Rights Violations in Belarus"  in Vilnius on September 13. During the conference, bilateral meetings at the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, as well as meetings with representatives of international human rights initiatives, Pavel Latushka and NAM lawyers presented justifications and evidence for the commission of three of the four most serious international crimes: crimes against humanity against the Belarusian people; crime of aggression against Ukraine; war crimes against Ukrainian children. NAM lawyers proposed several ways to bring Lukashenko and his accomplices to justice, which are already being implemented, as well as those that can be implemented with the support of Western partners: First, the application of the principle of universal jurisdiction  to prosecute those responsible. Within the framework of universal jurisdiction, Belarusians who have become victims of crimes against humanity have already filed applications to initiate criminal cases in the following countries: Poland, Lithuania (at least 60 cases), the Czech Republic (at least 10), Switzerland, Germany. It is necessary to expand the application of this instrument.  Secondly, a proposal has been initiated to transfer the situation in Belarus by the participating states to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for consideration . Thirdly, lawyers of the NAM spoke  about the work in the direction of using the International Court of Justice as another institution to bring Lukashenko and his accomplices to justice for crimes against humanity. It is necessary to apply the instrument of international criminal responsibility.  Team of the NAM is working on this. This is a question of issuing an arrest warrant for Lukashenko for crimes against humanity against Belarusians and for war crimes — the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. Lukashenko must also be held accountable for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. " This is an important tool for changing the regime's policy and further political changes within Belarus. These changes will come. In this regard, Belarusian society differs from Russian society. Unlike Russians, Belarusians do not support war and dictatorship. We must understand this when developing a separate strategy regarding the regime in Belarus ", Pavel Latushka noted.  It was also noted that NAM is the only Belarusian civil initiative working in the field of international criminal justice and interacting in this matter with various Belarusian human rights organizations and legal initiatives. In his speech, Pavel Latushka also presented his vision of the sanctions policy against Lukashenko's regime, outlined its weaknesses and opportunities for improvement. The head of the NAM emphasized the need to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. " However, we must not forget who we are dealing with. Over more than 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has become an expert in the world on sanctions and knows perfectly well how to lift them ", — Pavel Latushka said in his speech. The goal of the NAM is to isolate the regime, but not Belarusian society. It is critically important not to contribute to the transformation of Belarus into "North Korea 2.0". To prevent this from happening, sanctions must be smarter, which means that it is impossible to: isolate Belarusian society; impose sanctions on consumer goods; significantly limit the mobility of people. Despite the implementation of some of the important proposals of the NAM in the sanctions policy of the EU, the US and other countries, a number of our proposals have not yet found practical application. Western sanctions have a number of shortcomings and loopholes and need to be improved. Therefore, NAM representatives advocate: expansion of sanctions pressure in order to achieve a change in the regime's policy and democratic changes; more powerful financial sanctions; use of sectoral sanctions; full harmonization of EU trade sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko’s regime; expansion of national sanctions; expansion of the list of personal sanctions. Pavel Latushka also addressed the dictator: "Lukashenko, you know what to do! Stop the repressions and release all political prisoners! Stop the hybrid war with the help of migrants and support for Russian aggression against Ukraine!" "We are not asking for F-16s and Leopards, give them to Ukraine as many as possible. Give us the most important tool - the tool of international legal responsibility to split the elites. I am convinced that among his entourage there will be few who want to board the Minsk-Hague train with Lukashenko",  — Pavel Latushka concluded his speech, addressing representatives of Western countries.

Theses of Pavel Latushka at the international conference Vilnius, September 13 Reasons for sanctions At the beginning of my speech, I would like to say the following. Over more than 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has become the world's leading expert on sanctions and he knows perfectly well how to lift them . But let's first answer the question — why are sanctions and other instruments of external pressure on the Lukashenko’s regime used ? Answer: to change the criminal policy of the state that this regime has captured. Thus, both sanctions and criminal prosecution of the regime lead to the goal of changing the regime's policy, and as a result, democratic changes in Belarus, a change in the system . I think that everyone gathered in the hall today will agree that sanctions are one of the instruments of pressure . But we must admit that we are not using this instrument to the fullest extent. Sanctions can be most effective when they are applied simultaneously and on a large scale. This approach can shock the political system, and the result comes quickly, which does not lead to long-term negative consequences for the population. Is it possible to measure the effectiveness of sanctions?  It is a difficult question. But the history of sanctions shows that they have an effect. Examples ( Poland in the 1980s , as well as other countries of the communist camp, South Africa ) show that they led to changes in political systems. And if they did not lead to changes, they forced the regimes to change their policies (for example, the release of political prisoners in Nicaragua). From the recent history of Belarus, we also know that the introduction of sanctions forced the Lukashenko’s regime to reconsider its policies . After the elections of 2006, 2010, the West introduced sanctions and pressure forced Lukashenko to change his domestic policy. Repressions stopped and political prisoners were released. I emphasize — repressions stopped! This is a change in policy. True, it must be admitted that Lukashenko did not last long. Today we are seeing an unprecedented scale of repressions. These are the most massive repressions in Europe in the last 50 years . And the regime openly declares: we will not stop them. Anyone who raises their head will lose their head. In place of the so-called "pardoned" political prisoners, the regime throws the same number of them into prison, and initiates new criminal cases every day. At the same time, Lukashenko expresses grievances that no one thanks him for this and does not lift the sanctions. However, the regime's policy, as we see, does not change. And we are considering exclusively domestic policy. What does it mean to "change the policy" of Lukashenko's regime today? To do this, we need to understand the whole range of reasons why sanctions were introduced. They were introduced for: falsification of elections, mass repressions, illegal landing of an airplane, artificially created migration crisis, complicity in Russian aggression against Ukraine. And today we note that for none of these reasons are there conditions for lifting the sanctions. At the same time, sanctions are a very serious problem for Lukashenko's regime. And he has already openly admitted this. So are sanctions effective? At the moment, they are not effective enough. After all, the regime's policy has not changed. What to do? Continue and increase the sanctions pressure. There is room for improvement here. The sanctions tool is far from exhausted. At the same time, the longer they are in effect, the stronger the effect of sanctions is. The time factor is also very important here. Therefore, it is a mistake to say that sanctions are ineffective in principle. The only thing we can say for sure is that they have not changed their policy at this point. Not yet . Some suggest a different approach. Accept the regime's policy as a given, agree with what is happening in Belarus today. In this case, there are few options left: The first option.  Agree with mass repressions inside Belarus and the establishment of a totalitarian dictatorship, agree with external aggression against Ukraine, destabilization of the borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, sabotage in neighboring countries. And this option still does not provide grounds for lifting the sanctions . After all, encouraging such a policy is stupid and harmful. Therefore, this option is out of the question. The second option.  Cancel the sanctions based on cosmetic changes in the regime's domestic policy. However, you and I remember that the regime continues its undeclared hybrid war against the EU, we do not forget that it carries out real acts of sabotage inside the EU, and most importantly, it continues to support Russia's aggression against Ukraine (supply of weapons, everything possible for the Russian Ministry of Defense, destabilization of the situation on the border with Ukraine, facilitates the circumvention of EU and US sanctions imposed on Russia). Therefore, proposals to lift sanctions for cosmetic changes inside are politicking, this is not a relevant approach. At the same time, we can try to separate sanctions for human rights violations into a separate track. But clear steps are needed to cancel them: Stop repressions, Release all political prisoners. Let's not forget about hundreds of people convicted in absentia, hundreds of thousands deported from the country, illegally seized property, liquidation of all independent media, all 11 opposition political parties, more than 1,700 NGOs, etc. Third option.  Use radical tools. I do not want and will not develop this idea further. Although Lukashenko himself recently said: "The West offers democratic forces to finance armed actions on the territory of Belarus." But we understand that this is propaganda. Conclusion — there is no alternative to sanctions. It is better to have negative effects from sanctions now than to endure dictatorship and aggressive war for the rest of the time. However, sanctions should be smarter, which is what we are trying to achieve.  Important: not to isolate society, not to impose sanctions on consumer goods, not to restrict people's mobility. We must isolate the regime, but not Belarusian society. It is important not to contribute to the transformation of Belarus into North Korea 2.0. in the center of Europe. However, we need to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. What has already been done? The problem with the effectiveness of sanctions is that sanctions are most effective when they are introduced on a large scale, at one time and quickly. The NAM, which I have headed since 2020, deals with the issues of introducing sanctions against the Lukashenko’s regime. Here, we proposed more than 500 representatives of the regime for the introduction of sanctions . The European Union imposed sanctions on 260 individuals. For example, Poland imposed national sanctions on 340 people — judges, military personnel, members of Lukashenko's parliament, propagandists.  Sectoral sanctions were introduced during this period. Sectoral sanctions are the most effective tool of sanctions pressure.  But since 2022, the main problem of circumvention has arisen — the problem of harmonizing sanctions against Russia and the regime in Belarus. To some extent, we have advanced in this matter, and the European Union in July of this year decided to harmonize trade sanctions against the Lukashenko’s regime and Russia.  It is important that the sanctions against potash fertilizers were retained. Here we thank the Lithuanian government for its principled position. We proposed to our EU partners to restrict transit through Belarus  to Russia and other countries. In the latest sanctions package, such restrictions were imposed on some dual-use goods. Based on our proposals, the US imposed sanctions on Lukashenko’s entire fleet . We are grateful to the US government for implementing this approach. Lukashenko’s last aircraft, Air Force One, was sanctioned on August 9 this year. In addition, in accordance with our proposals to EU Sanctions Commissioner David O’Sullivan, EU restrictions were applied to the Bank of Russia Financial Messaging System (SPFS), the Russian equivalent of SWIFT , which provided the financial infrastructure for sanctions evasion. Lukashenko is responsible for the illegal removal of Ukrainian children from the occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus . We initiated sanctions against specific individuals and organizations. And such sanctions were imposed by the US, the EU, Canada and Ukraine . However, it is important to further expand them. How to increase the effectiveness of sanctions? Despite the successes, a number of our proposals have not yet found practical application. Western sanctions have a number of shortcomings and loopholes and need to be improved.  What else needs to be done? The key issue remains the issue of monitoring compliance with the imposed sanctions. To this end, when exporting from the EU, it is necessary to apply a mechanism for establishing control over compliance with sanctions, primarily for manufacturers, and with regard to imported goods, it is necessary to combat intermediary firms in third countries. Unfortunately, it is impossible to make the sanctions regime completely hermetic. Targeted sanctions are usually ineffective, so we propose focusing efforts on expanding sectoral sanctions  instead of sanctions against individual enterprises. In order to combat sanctions circumvention, we also propose applying trade quotas to third countries in the trade volumes  that existed before the sanctions were imposed. It is also necessary to strengthen control over the financial sector . To do this, it is necessary to track payments through Belarus and be prepared to apply secondary sanctions to violators. Here we would like to turn to the United States. In addition, we insist on freezing the regime's assets and including more Belarusian banks in the SDN list as secondary targets of sanctions. The most effective measure to comply with the sanctions would be to stop the transit of sanctioned goods through the territory of Belarus and Russia.  This would be a powerful blow in the current conditions to the infrastructure for bypassing the imposed sanctions and a powerful blow to the economy of the aggressors. Personal sanctions.  Unfortunately, we are forced to state that the possibilities for applying personal sanctions by our partners have not been fully utilized. Sanctions have been imposed on 18 thousand targets of sanctions against Russia and only on 1.5 thousand against the regime in Belarus. National sanctions are an additional tool.  Here we call on Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Ukraine and other countries to use this tool more actively. To summarize: We are for expanding sanctions pressure in order to achieve a change in the regime’s policies and democratic changes. We are for more powerful financial sanctions. We are for the use of sectoral sanctions. We are for the full harmonization of EU trade sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko’s regime. We are for expanding national sanctions. We are for expanding the list of personal sanctions. In addition, it is necessary to apply the instrument of international criminal responsibility.  The National Anti-Crisis Management team is working on this. This is a question of issuing an arrest warrant for Lukashenko for crimes against humanity against Belarusians and for a war crime — the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. Lukashenko must also be held accountable for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. This is also a very important tool for changing the regime's policy and further political changes within Belarus. And these changes will come, Belarusian society is ready for them. In this regard, Belarusian society differs from Russian society . Unlike Russians, Belarusians do not support war and dictatorship . We must understand this when developing a separate strategy for the regime in Belarus. In conclusion, I would like to repeat the following. Over more than 30 years of his rule, Lukashenko has become the main specialist in sanctions and he knows perfectly well how to lift them. And here is a message for the dictator:   "Lukashenko, you know what to do! Stop the repressions and release political prisoners! Stop the hybrid war with the help of migrants and help the aggressor!" And my message to Western partners is this: we are not asking for F-16s and Leopards, give them to Ukraine as many as possible. Give us the most important tool — the tool of international legal responsibility to split the elites. I am convinced that among his entourage there will be few who want to board the Minsk-Hague train with Lukashenko. Pavel Latushko: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador

As part of a series of consultations with foreign diplomats accredited in Warsaw, the Deputy Head of the Cabinet Pavel Latushka  met with the Swedish Ambassador Andreas von Beckerath  at the initiative of the head of the Swedish diplomatic mission. During the meeting, it was noted that Sweden will proceed from the principle of the rule of law in relation to the regime in Belarus. The speaker of the Coordinating Council Anzhalika Melnikova  also took part in the meeting. Pavel Latushka presented the Swedish side with information about the regime's planned "no-elections", continuation and strengthening of repression against Belarusians, Lukashenko's support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, as well as about the role of democratic institutions and the unity of the majority of representatives of the Dems forces of Belarus, which was emphasized during the "New Belarus" conference in Vilnius. Separately, Pavel Latushka focused on the priorities of the foreign policy strategy of democratic institutions and the strategy of bringing representatives of the regime to international responsibility for crimes against humanity and war crimes. The Swedish Ambassador was also informed about the international conference " Accountability for the crimes and human rights violations in Belarus ", which will be held on September 13 in Vilnius. The Ambassador assured that Sweden will continue to pursue a proactive policy to support the democratic forces of Belarus, and this approach will not change given the appointment of the new head of the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Malmer Stenergard . The speaker of the Coordination Council, Anzhalika Melnikova , raised the issue of Sweden's migration policy and possible steps to improve the situation with the granting of international protection status to Belarusian refugees. The speaker noted that this is one of the most important tracks that the People's Embassy in Stockholm and the international commission of the Coordination Council are engaged in today. Anzhalika Melnikova emphasized that the Coordination Council is interested in expanding cooperation with the Swedish Parliament, including the group for a free and democratic Belarus and the Committee on Foreign Affairs, in close cooperation with the United Transitional Cabinet, the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and the People's Embassy in Stockholm.