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How does the Kremlin plan to get rid of Lukashenko?

Unofficial Kremlin propaganda rushed to deny information about the transit of power in Belarus and its conditions, which became one of the main topics of the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in Sochi.

This only confirms what we said. Meanwhile, the plan itself to replace Lukashenko has long been launched and is being implemented. These are amendments to the Constitution pushed through by the Kremlin and the active development of a pro-Russian pseudo-civil society in Belarus under the patronage of Rossotrudnichestvo, as well as the harmonization of the party systems of Russia and Belarus, resulting in the remaining parties being clones of Russian ones.

What does all this mean?

The fact is that the Kremlin is actively preparing a transit scenario precisely for the moment when Belarus enters the period of electoral campaigns, the first of which – the so-called parliamentary and local elections – aims to completely occupy the "parliament" and local councils with pro-Russian forces represented by candidates from clone parties, primarily Belaya Rus.

Based on this, we can predict that the next stage will be the formation of the so-called Supreme National Assembly, where the majority of seats will also be occupied by pro-Russian delegates. Is it worth reminding that, as a result of changes to the Constitution, it is the Supreme Council that has the right to impeach Lukashenko? That is, Lukashenko may not "survive" until the presidential elections. And the chair of the chairman of the Supreme National Assembly in the emerging configuration, contrary to Lukashenko's hopes, essentially turns into a nominal one.

Nazarbayev's scenario has actually been prepared for Lukashenko, and he understands this. But he can hardly resist this in any way. Everything looks the other way around - with his own hands, he helps this scenario come true. After all, it was he who practically destroyed and brought to naught any forms of civil society in Belarus. It was he who liquidated the Belarusian independent media, political parties, rewrote the Constitution, signed all union programs and a common military doctrine with Russia within the framework of the so-called "union state." It was he who dragged Belarus into the war against Ukraine, placed Russian nuclear weapons in our country, put it on a war footing, and almost completely merged the Belarusian economy with the Russian one. It was Lukashenko who opened the gates to Belarus wide open to the "Russian world," hoping that these "merits" would be credited to him.

And yes, all these actions of Lukashenko, which cannot be called anything other than high treason and national betrayal, really allowed him to stay in power with the help of Russia. Power is all that interests this character, and this is what played a cruel joke on him. After all, it is precisely the thirst for power and the willingness to do anything for it that ultimately make Lukashenko unreliable in the eyes of the Kremlin, which cannot take risks, especially now, when the front is crumbling, and the CSTO allies are already sitting down at the table with Biden and even conducting joint exercises with the United States, like Armenia.

However, the Kremlin's intention to remove Lukashenko and replace him with a new puppet are still two different tasks. And if they are quite capable of coping with the first one, then neither the democratic forces, nor the people, nor our international partners will allow them to place a Moscow protege on the throne.

Both Lukashenko and the Kremlin's "preparations" do not and will not have either support, recognition, or legitimacy, no matter what combinations they try to play out.

Belarus is not Russia and will never become one. The future of Belarus is in Europe. And Russia's imperial projects, the same CSTO, are already beginning to fall apart before our eyes.



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