Lukashenko wants to preserve his political "course" even after his departure or death
Deputy Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Artsiom Brukhan, discussed the changes in the power system that Lukashenko plans to implement during a broadcast on the "Svaboda Premium" channel.
Belarus's political system remains super-presidential: although Lukashenko introduced constitutional amendments in 2022 that created formal checks and balances, the role of the "president" remains decisive. On the surface, the system appears to be becoming more collective, but in practice, everything remains under Lukashenko’s strict control. Granting the so-called "All-Belarusian People's Assembly" the status of a constitutional body and expanding the powers of local authorities seem more like an effort to strengthen the authoritarian structure rather than a genuine attempt to delegate power to real collegial bodies.
The idea of "collective governance" and increasing the role of new "collective" institutions, such as the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, remains purely symbolic for now. This is not about a real separation of powers but rather about reinforcing the power vertical, as Lukashenko continues to combine two positions. Theoretically, these new bodies could influence politics, but in reality, they remain under Lukashenko’s direct control. As long as he is alive and occupies the usurped presidency, no real changes can be expected.
At the same time, the creation of structures intended to ensure the continuation of power after Lukashenko’s departure represents an attempt to guarantee the preservation of his internal and external political course and maintain elite unity around the regime. Lukashenko is essentially laying the groundwork for a system that could carry on his policies even in his absence. However, it is unlikely that such pseudo-institutions would be able to function without his direct involvement.
Lukashenko's vision of institutionalizing power boils down to creating a more complex governance system that remains entirely dependent on his personal rule. Elite competition could only emerge if he were to leave the scene, raising doubts about the sustainability of his institutional framework.
The fundamental issue lies in the lack of genuine democratic competition and institutional independence. All attempts to create "collective" structures today remain, in essence, mere tools for strengthening his personalist system. At the same time, the foundation is being laid for preserving Lukashenko's political course even after his departure.
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