Lukashenko Is a Dead End
- Admin of the NAM
- May 7
- 7 min read
Why is the economy built from the bottom up, not from the top down?
Today many of us find ourselves outside Belarus. Many simply travel abroad from time to time, to Poland or Lithuania. But whether in Belarus or in forced emigration, we continue to seek real ways to influence the future of our country.
One such step is the online elections to the Coordination Council, taking place from 11 to 17 May. This is an opportunity to vote for democratic representation and support the forces that consistently stand for freedom of private initiative — such as the coalition "Latushka and the Movement 'For Freedom'."
For when we look at life around us, in neighbouring European countries, each of us notices one very simple, everyday, yet incredibly important detail. Imagine: you are driving along an ordinary Polish regional road — not a motorway, but a regional road passing through small towns and villages. What do you see out the window? You see life. Fences and facades are covered with dozens of signs: "Repairs," "Tyre fitting," "Seedlings for sale," "Tow truck services," "Fresh strawberries," "Building materials." Even in the deepest rural areas, economic activity is in full swing. People are producing things, selling things, offering their services directly.
Now think of our Belarusian roads. Clean? Yes. Tidy? Quite. But… empty. Economically — empty. There is no such density of initiative, no such endless kaleidoscope of private micro-businesses.
And here the main question arises: why? For years, Lukashenko's propaganda has drilled into us that we have a "special path," that our people are supposedly not inclined towards business, that Belarusians need a "strong manager" from above to organise everything and provide jobs.
This is a lie. The difference between Poland and Belarus lies not in mentality. The difference lies in the structure of the system itself. And today I want to set out clearly why the Polish economic model of small and medium-sized business is what Belarus must aspire to.
1. How does the engine of the economy work?
In economics there is a concept known as the cumulative, or network, effect. And in Poland it operates at full capacity.
What does this look like in practice? The more small entrepreneurs there are, the more they earn. The higher their incomes, the more they spend within their own region. The owner of a tyre-fitting shop goes to a private barber, the barber buys vegetables from a local farmer, the farmer hires a team of builders to repair his cowshed, and the builders go to a local café in the evening.
This is a self-sustaining cycle. More initiative — more employment — more household income — more local demand, which generates new businesses. Money does not flow to the centre; it circulates "on the ground," enriching society.
Why does this cycle not exist in Belarus? Because it presupposes freedom of action. And freedom, in any of its manifestations, is precisely what Lukashenko fears. The short answer: because of Lukashenko's cowardice and fears.The dictator is afraid that he will not be able to control and intimidate a large number of small initiatives. And like any pathologically cowardly person — especially one endowed with power — he either destroys everything or resorts to blackmail and threats.
That is why we have critically few independent entrepreneurs. Employment is concentrated in large state-owned enterprises or the regime structures of Lukashenko's "wallet holders." People's incomes are extracted and redistributed through administrative channels: taxes go to Minsk, and from there officials decide who receives a subsidy. The density of transactions between private individuals is artificially suppressed. We have no economic "self-acceleration."
2. The right to make mistakes as an entrepreneur
Let us look at how people start their own businesses. In Poland, since the 1990s, the bet was placed on private initiative. A "dense and porous market" was created — as economists call it. Entering business is easy. Flexible forms of self-employment exist; registration takes minimal time. The Polish authorities are not afraid of enterprising people — on the contrary, they support them in every way.
The Polish market is also highly de-monopolised in many sectors, even in such strategic ones as transport and fuel. For example, in Belarus there are only a few large petrol station chains; in Poland there are dozens, with hundreds of individual small private stations belonging to no chain at all.
In Belarus, this was also taking shape in the 1990s, but was quickly destroyed with Lukashenko's rise to power.Everything ended up in the hands of his inner circle. The reason is the same — Lukashenko's fear. He was afraid that enterprising citizens would acquire additional income and become independent of his dictatorial system, and so, in his cowardly view, he must control all income.
But the most important thing is that in Poland the cost of failure is low. If you tried and it did not work out, you simply close the business. The state regulates the rules of the game but does not attempt to manage the structure of the market itself. And what is the cost of failure under Lukashenko? As a rule, there is only one cost — a prison sentence.
Lukashenko's economy is an economy of rigid control. The state acts not as an arbiter but as a overseer and the main player. The cost of entering legal business is enormous, and the cost of exiting is even greater. Every micro-business lives in fear: inspectors will come, find a violation, "reclassify" your activity in such a way that you end up owing the state more than you have earned since opening.
After 2020, the regime went after sole traders, the self-employed, online shops, rural guesthouses, craftspeople, tutors, minibus operators, and taxi drivers. The list of those they want to dispossess again goes on and on. Lukashenko has always had a pathological fear of them and continues to fear them. That is precisely why our roads do not have signs saying "Repairs and services."
3. Micro-business in rural life
Let us return to those signs on fences. What we see in Poland is the consequence of a vast number of individual entrepreneurs in construction, logistics, and agricultural services. It is the result of intense competition for customers. People are accustomed to selling their goods and services directly, without intermediaries in the form of ministries or state conglomerates. In Belarus, a huge share of basic services is artificially "packaged" into large companies belonging to Lukashenko's "wallet holders" or state structures.
This is especially visible in the countryside. The Polish village lives off farmers, their cooperatives, and thousands of private entrepreneurs who serve them. Around one farmer, mechanics, haulers, and builders all make a living. The village is economically active and independent. Houses in Polish villages can often make urban residents envious. Poles have no reason to all move to the capital, since even in the provinces one can earn a good living if one wishes.
The Belarusian village, by contrast, is trapped within large and often loss-making agro-enterprises. Even private shops in the countryside are a rarity, let alone any more substantial businesses. Around agro-enterprises there is no network of independent contractors. The density of private initiatives in rural areas tends toward zero. And where there is no independent owner, the village slowly but surely dies, waiting for handouts from the budget. No amount of shouting and threats of imprisonment directed at officials and agricultural managers by Lukashenko changes anything. Moreover, everyone has long since understood that this is simply PR and theatre on the part of the dictator.
4. Do Belarusians prefer to work for someone else?
We hear that Belarusians more often prefer to be employees rather than entrepreneurs. Yes, this is true. But let us be honest: why?
This is pure risk psychology, dictated by the dictatorship. In a stable market environment where the laws work equally for everyone and the courts protect property, people more readily try to start businesses. In a rigidly regulated environment where rules change retroactively and any success can become grounds for repression or the seizure of a business, people choose employment. Not because they cannot be entrepreneurs. But because they want to survive.
Change the rules of the game, remove the truncheon of the inspecting authorities — and you will see how hundreds of thousands of Belarusians open their own workshops, cafés, IT start-ups, and logistics companies. But to change all of this, the first thing needed is to remove Lukashenko himself.
What kind of country do we want to build?
People often say that these are simply different models. Poland is a market economy with a leading role for the private sector, while Belarus is a managed state system offering stability.
We categorically disagree that these are "simply different models." For us, for the future of our nation, Lukashenko's model is a dead end. This model is good for one thing only: keeping power in the hands of a family and a narrow group of individuals who control all financial flows.
A model with few small players, where everyone works for a monopolist, produces no economic growth. It gives people no independence. Those who depend on the state for their wages depend on it for their right to vote as well.
The Polish model of small and medium-sized business is not just about money. It is about freedom and resilience.Many independent players means that the economy cannot be destroyed by a single decree. It means that people themselves bear responsibility for their own lives, themselves create the wealth of their region, themselves form the middle class — which is the foundation of any democracy — and themselves initiate the adoption or repeal of the legislation that governs their lives.
We must aspire to this model. We must aspire to keep cowards out of power — those whose methods of governance consist of threats, blackmail, and fear. Our goal is to unleash the energy of the Belarusian people. To make starting a business as simple as paying a fine. To make the word "entrepreneur" once again a synonym for "creator," not "suspect."
Once Belarus is free of Lukashenko and becomes truly free, once fair laws are established and property rights are guaranteed — our cities and villages will flourish. And one day, driving along a Belarusian regional road, we will see hundreds of signs belonging to free, successful, and independent people. People who are building the country's economy with their own hands.
And this path to change begins with our actions today — however small — taken in solidarity. That is why it is important for us to use every platform and every legal instrument of pressure available. By voting in the online elections to the Coordination Council from 11 to 17 May, we are taking a real step toward building that independent, strong, and enterprising Belarus — where everyone can work honestly on their own land and look proudly toward the future.
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