1. Is this a ratcheting up of tensions or a serious threat of use?
"I am convinced that Putin and Lukashenko have signed a secret protocol on how to use nuclear weapons." H.E.Pavel Latushka Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management
26_05_2023
An audio interview with Pavel Latushka forbbc.co.uk
Putin and Lukashenko have decided to deploy nuclear missiles on the territory of Belarus in order to threaten to use them or possibly to ensure its use.
When Ukraine de-occupies its territories and we wish it to Ukraine for the nearest future, for example, approaches the borders of Crimea, a single strike with nuclear tactical weapons could be launched from the territory of Belarus.
The goal of these two guys is to demotivate European Western society and discourage further support for Ukraine.
And of course, NATO members will meet at headquarters in Brussels to consider the question of strike back.
The first question will be whether to strike back at Russia. But, there will be objections as this strike was launched from the territory of Belarus.
The second question will be: "Then is it necessary to strike on the territory of Belarus? But the answer will follow in Brussels, why on the territory of Belarus as it is the Russian nuclear weapon?
And unfortunately, I am inclined to think that there will be no decision and there will be no retaliatory strike, exactly what Putin and Lukashenko are counting on.
But because Lukashenko wants to secure himself Lukashenko places tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. As the next step, we will find out in a few months, maybe in a year, that strategic nuclear weapons will appear on the territory of Belarus.
2. Who would ultimately controls the launch capability... Could Belarus object or stop their use?
I am convinced that Putin and Lukashenko have signed a secret protocol on how to use nuclear weapons, which is already on the territory of Belarus. Lukashenko has publicly stated earlier that he will take part in the decision on the use of nuclear weapons deployed on the territory of Belarus, and he will never give it up. That is why the secret protocol is signed and there is supposed to be a mutual decision. Nobody will publish this protocol, because it is a direct violation of international law.
3. When will this happen?
We must understand that Lukashenko is Putin's only ally.
He started the war with him, he provided the territories of Belarus and the most powerful attack in the direction of Kyiv was delivered from the territory of Belarus.
But the West still does not understand Lukashenko's role. Lukashenko is not resisting Putin, Lukashenko wants to do what Putin is telling him to do, and this is his strategy. Today a country in Europe - Belarus - is disappearing right here, before our eyes. The West is silent.
We persuade you [the West] to impose sanctions in order to protect you and you don't apply them.
We persuade you [the West] to bring Lukashenko to justice, to bring Putin's puppet to justice and you do not do it.
How long are we going to convince you to deal with your security?
As a result, we have lost time, today nuclear weapons are in Belarus and a European country is disappearing before our eyes, Belarus is disappearing.
I have nothing more to say…