Sanctions Are Not Symbolic — They Undermine the Regime’s Economic Base

Illustrative photo

According to data from the National Bank of Belarus, in January–October 2025 the deficit in foreign trade in goods and services amounted to USD 1.2 billion. According to Belstat, in January–November 2025 the deficit in trade in goods alone reached nearly USD 6 billion: exports increased by only 0.1%, while imports grew by 4.2%.

Alongside the incompetent and ineffective economic policies of the regime’s government, this situation is also the result of sanctions: export restrictions are working, while dependence on imports remains. The regime is forced to purchase goods at higher prices and through обходные channels, while being unable to compensate for losses through exports to Russia and so-called "friendly" countries.

In January–November 2025:

• industrial output in current prices declined by 1.7% compared to the same period of the previous year;

• agricultural production decreased by 0.02% (the loss of cattle alone amounted to 110,000 head);

• freight turnover fell by 3%;

• inventory levels reached 83.6% of average monthly output (a year earlier — no more than 60%).

These indicators reflect a decline in production, a contraction in logistics activity, and a reduction in both domestic and external demand. Freight turnover is of particular importance, as it reflects the real movement of goods rather than accounting figures. Its decline indicates a deterioration of the country’s transit role and the breakdown of production chains.

It is important to note that in January–November 2025 GDP growth amounted to only 1.3%, which is more than three times lower than the official forecast (4.1%). Even this weak growth is driven by budget injections and administrative pressure rather than genuine economic efficiency.

"Sanctions are not symbolic — they undermine the regime’s economic base. They deprive it of foreign currency revenues, reduce industrial production, make sustainable GDP growth unattainable, and increase the regime’s internal vulnerability.

The Belarusian economy is entering a phase of prolonged stagnation, caused in part by sanctions pressure. This pressure is systemic and cumulative, targeting the key sources of the regime’s resilience. Therefore, sanctions must not only be maintained but also strengthened. If the regime does not change its internal repressive and external aggressive policies, pressure must not be eased. Only by maintaining economic pressure will the Lukashenko regime be deprived of the resources needed for self-preservation",

said Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management.

---