Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador More than 220 illegal migrants attempted to break through from Belarus to Poland on April 10. The daily attempts by tens or even hundreds of people trying to illegally enter Poland have become increasingly common. There has also been a noticeable increase in illegal migration on the borders with Latvia and Lithuania. And this is all happening before the arrival of summer. Lukashenko's actions are guided by instructions from the Kremlin, with the goal of destabilizing the situation on the border with NATO members and diverting EU resources away from assisting Ukraine. We cannot discount the possibility of a large-scale provocation, potentially even triggering Article 5 of the NATO Charter. It is crucial to recognize that representatives of Belarusian and Russian intelligence services, as well as members of the Wagner Group, may attempt to infiltrate EU territory among the illegal migrants. According to Lukashenko and the Kremlin's plan, the destabilization on the border should ultimately lead to the complete closure of border crossings with the EU. Interestingly, they aim to achieve this while making it appear as if the West is responsible for such a decision. The closure of borders is part of the preparations for the next phase of the war, and we cannot dismiss this possibility either. For us, it is important that border crossings remain open for ordinary citizens, while focusing on blocking freight railway traffic. This strategy would exert significant pressure on the regime and involve China in finding a solution to the issue of illegal migration.

Yury Hubarevich, the officer responsible for regional development at NAM, gave a commentary to the FREEDOM channel on the usurper's statements about preparations for war. Throughout 30 years of his rule, the dictator has consistently claimed that Belarus is surrounded by enemies, with the exception of Russia, which has been a traditional ally for him. However, recent years have had a significant impact on this perception. Being his formal ally, Lukashenko is compelled to align himself with Putin's interests. In 2022, he allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for invasion in Ukraine, accommodated Russian military personnel, provided them with medical assistance, and conducted joint military exercises. It is evident that Lukashenko cannot maintain a facade of peace while the war rages on elsewhere. Is Russia prepared to initiate a new war in Europe? Within Russia, there appears to be a readiness among the population. This sentiment was reflected in the results of the recent presidential elections, where more than half of the population still exhibits a willingness to fight and die for Putin, much like they did for Stalin. This mentality is deeply ingrained in Russian society. What about the stance of Belarusians regarding the matter? The sentiments in Belarus are entirely different. If Lukashenko were to send Belarusian soldiers into this dangerous situation, it could have severe consequences for him. Lukashenko is aware of these risks and attempts to limit his involvement to rhetoric about conducting military exercises. It is highly unlikely that Lukashenko would unilaterally decide to involve the Belarusian army in an actual military operation.

Source: Polskie Radio 24 Unofficial translation "We are not focused enough on Lukashenko as a problem, and this may have disastrous consequences," warns Pavel Latushka, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. He also highlighted the lack of a coherent strategy from the West towards Belarus, in contrast to Russia's clear intentions in the region. "The pro-democratic majority in Belarus may be shrinking (…). And without adequately addressing the 'Belarusian problem’, peace in the region would remain elusive," he said. “In contrast to Russia, the West lacks a comprehensive strategy towards Belarus. The Western powers should develop a strategy that aligns with the pro-democratic majority within Belarus. However, the time is of the essence, as this majority may diminish over time,” Latushka stressed. Recently, Aleksandr Lukashenko has been increasingly alluding to the possibility of war, hinting that it may be inevitable. For instance, during a visit to Grodno in early April, he declared that “Belarus was preparing for war” while simultaneously asserting that his country did not seek conflict. Since the spring of 2022, Belarus has been conducting continuous military exercises, and in March, a combat readiness test was announced for the Belarusian army. Pavel Latushka, Vice-Prime Minister of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s government and the head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, shared his thoughts on these developments and the implications of Lukashenko's statements with PolskieRadio24.pl. He was asked whether these signals should be a cause for concern, whether they might be mere bluffs, or is there a bit of both. "Lukashenko is preparing for war. These are his words, and his actions confirm it. In my opinion, Lukashenko knows when war will come to Belarus. This is what his last statement means — Pavel Latushka told the PolskieRadio24.pl portal when asked about the latest statements of the Belarusian dictator. Latushka also recalled Lukashenko's prior knowledge of the planned aggression against Ukraine, which was also launched from Belarusian territory. “Lukashenko had discussed the impending war during a meeting in Vitebsk on December 15, 2021, two months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He had remarked that "no war has spared us in the past or will miss us now. God forbid it breaks out." Just a month prior to that statement, Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin had signed an updated military doctrine for the so-called Union State, establishing a joint Regional Group of Troops comprising Belarusian and Russian forces. Two months after Lukashenko's statement on December 15, 2021, a full-scale war against Ukraine began, with the Lukashenko regime providing the territory of Belarus to Russia and thus becoming a co-aggressor.” The adoption of the new military doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus was announced during a meeting of the Supreme Council of the Union State of Belarus and Russia on November 4, 2021. The document's text was published in February of the following year. Latushka emphasized that Lukashenko's prior knowledge and preparations for the Ukrainian invasion should serve as a cautionary example. He urged the international community to recognize that Lukashenko likely possesses similar foresight regarding future events and is making corresponding preparations. As Pavel Latushka pointed out, Lukashenko knew what would happen and was preparing for it. “It’s a similar situation now, so we should assume that Lukashenko already knows what will happen and is also preparing for that,” the former ambassador noted. As Latushka recalled, Russian troops attacked Kyiv and other areas of Ukraine from Belarus, but Minsk did not experience any retaliatory attacks. The oppositionist believes that Lukashenko is concerned that his actions may lead to armed retaliation this time. "The only thing he was wrong about before was Ukraine's reaction. Ukraine decided, taking into account its national interest, not to respond to blows and not to transfer the war to the territory of Belarus. Of course, the West didn't want that either. So how should we understand Lukashenko's new, or rather not so new, statement today? “In this case, his words should be taken literally. He is really preparing for war, just like in December 2021.” “Moreover, just like then, he definitely knows when it will happen, and he knows that no one will tolerate another aggression from the territory of Belarus. It will be the second time, but this time there will be military retaliation. That's why Lukashenko says he is preparing for war, and that's why he talks about it to society," notes Pavel Latushka. Lukashenko follows Putin's order "Lukashenko knows that war may come to Belarus, just like in February 2022. He does not intend to do anything to prevent this war. As then, he obediently follows the Kremlin's orders. Both then and now, he is not the master of the house but a puppet who will do whatever Mr. Putin demands," Pavel Latushka noted. The oppositionist emphasizes that Lukashenka has long made Belarus dependent on Russia, including economically. "The Lukashenko regime has been living on borrowed money for decades and has been fed by Russian hands for decades. This did not happen after 2020; it has always been like this. It was only thanks to Russia's support that he stayed in power after losing the 2020 elections, and Belarus is paying a terrible price for it. His actions have already led Belarus to almost lose its independence and violated international law by allowing acts of aggression from its territory. And now his actions may escalate the war that is on the country's doorstep," warns the former ambassador. Lukashenko changed the legislation Pavel Latushka also assesses that a number of factors may indicate preparations for a possible war. "Let's look at what has been happening in Belarus recently. Several directions can be indicated here. First of all, Lukashenko is changing the legislation. Acts that may be important in war conditions are being changed," Pavel Latushka explains. Pavel Latushka has given several examples, "New laws were introduced, for example on military volunteers ('On People's Militia'). The death penalty for betraying the regime has been introduced for military officers and officials Lukashenko is afraid that the military may not obey his order. He altered the military regulations, granting soldiers the right to shoot at civilians without repercussions," Pavel Latushka said. These are just a few examples. Recently, Lukashenko has also signed a law enabling conscription via SMS and allowing convicted individuals to serve under contract if he deems it necessary. Additionally, the defense budget has increased by 29 percent, with a corresponding increase in local defense budgets. According to Pavel Latushka, in addition to adapting legislation to a possible war situation, Lukashenko is increasing military resources and buying new weapons. "The defense budget has been increased by 29 percent, with a corresponding increase in local defense budgets," he said. “On October 23, 2023, the annex to the draft budget bill stated that Minsk would allocate 3,577,196,311 Belarusian rubles ($1.1 billion) for defense. Belarus's planned budget expenditure on national defense for 2023 amounts to 2.77 billion Belarusian rubles ($0.85 billion). This represents a 29.2 percent increase in this amount," reports the media. The TASS agency additionally added that "in 2023, the expenditure of the Minsk budget on national defense increased one and a half times compared to 2022." Defense line along the border Latushka mentions the construction of defense lines in the Gomel, Brest, and Grodno regions of Belarus. In June 2023, reports emerged stating that fortifications were being constructed near the village of Saki in the Brest Oblast. This information was provided by various sources, including Belaruski Hajun Telegram channel. Prior to this, independent media had disclosed the construction of fortifications, measuring approximately 2 kilometers in length, in the Gomel Oblast. These fortifications were referred to as the Khrenin Line, named after the Belarusian Minister of Defense. There is limited information available regarding the size, purpose, and other details of these structures. "These are special infrastructure solutions that will enable long-term survival without ammunition and food supplies. It's not about someone deciding to commit aggression against Belarus. He is considering a situation in which there might be a response against the regime as a result of aggression involving Belarus against Ukraine or NATO. In such a situation, he would rely on the defensive infrastructure he has created," says Pavel Latushka. Expansion of military bases The oppositionist also revealed that Lukashenko is establishing several new military bases in Belarus. "These include combat training centers, such as the joint military exercise center of Russia and Belarus in Grodno, located near the border with Poland. Russian troops have also arrived in Baranovichi. There are centers related to air defense, which are intended for aviation purposes as well. "He has established two additional military aviation bases in Luniniec, near the border with Ukraine in the Brest region. There is also a base in Ziabrouka, in the Gomel region, right on the border with Ukraine. These bases are used for military aviation and anti-aircraft defense. Furthermore, the 'mixed' military base of Mochulischi near Minsk, which serves as an aviation and anti-aircraft defense base, is being expanded," stated Mr. Latushka. In January 2023, Lukashenko made the decision to create a new anti-aircraft regiment in Luniniec near the border with Ukraine. The decision to establish the joint exercise center in Grodno was made in Moscow on March 5, 2021. Baranovichi, Ziabrouka, and Mochulischi are also locations where Russian troops have been deployed. "If Lukashenko only wanted to create the appearance of preparations, would it make sense to invest such huge funds and change legislation?” The answer, according to Pavel Latushka, is that these are not mere appearances but real preparations for war. In addition, continuous military exercises have been taking place in Belarus since spring 2022. Propaganda The oppositionist highlighted the intensification of propaganda as the third factor indicating Lukashenko's plans. It is likely that this propaganda narrative is being developed with the assistance of advisors from Russia. "The third factor is propaganda. Independent media in Belarus have been dismantled. Lukashenko, using the propaganda apparatus that he fully controls, is trying to instill in Belarusians the narrative that enemies are everywhere. These enemies include Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, NATO, the United States, and Great Britain. Even the new military doctrine, which is set to be approved in April by the All-Belarusian National Assembly, designates neighboring countries, except Russia, as well as the United States and Great Britain, as unfriendly countries," noted the former minister and diplomat, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. "It must be understood that Lukashenko is under Russia's influence. He has substantial financial obligations. This year, Belarus must begin repaying a loan of approximately USD 3 billion to Russia for the construction of a nuclear power plant in the Grodno region,” Pavel Latushka stated. "It's not just a matter of Lukashenko's financial dependence on Russia. The problem lies in his mentality. Lukashenko supports Russia because, from his perspective, Russia is an ally. He has a pro-Russian orientation, although he will try to play a game whenever possible to maintain his power. Who can overthrow him? Only the Belarusian people and Russia. The Belarusian nation currently lives under a totalitarian system - no demonstrations can be organized, and detentions and arrests occur daily, with people being sentenced to imprisonment. Just recently, in Baranovichi, 17 people were sentenced to imprisonment in one day. Lukashenko will do everything in Russia's interests. He is dependent on it and, at the same time, he understands that he is responsible, along with Putin, for the crimes and the war," explained the oppositionist. What should be done? Pavel Latushka emphasized the need to develop a strategy for Belarus, stating that the West, the European Union, and the United States have not yet formulated one, allowing Russia to have its way, because it has such a strategy. "First of all, our partners and neighbors must understand that until Belarus becomes a democratic country, it will pose a threat to the security of neighboring countries, NATO, the European Union, and Ukraine," Latushka said . Latushka expressed the belief that if the West had strongly supported the Belarusian people in 2020, when millions were protesting on the streets, imposing severe sanctions and backing the protests, Belarus could have a democratic government today. "And could we have envisioned a war between Russia and Ukraine? I believe it is doubtful and unlikely. Hence, it is crucial for all neighboring countries of Belarus and the entire West to develop a strategy regarding the regime," stated Pavel Latushka. "The Belarusian people are the most powerful force that can oppose Lukashenko," he emphasized. Recent sociological research indicates that only a small percentage of Belarusians desire their country to be part of Russia; they support an independent Belarus. The majority of Belarusians are against the participation of the Belarusian army in the war in Ukraine and are in favor of democratic development prospects for their country. According to Pavel Latushka, “recent sociological research indicates that only a small percentage of Belarusians, even in recent years, desire their country to be part of Russia. They strongly support an independent Belarus. This research, conducted by sociologist Andrei Vardomatski and other centers, highlights these findings. The majority of Belarusians oppose the involvement of the Belarusian army in the Ukrainian conflict. Recent surveys have demonstrated that approximately 66 percent of Belarusians favor the prospects of democratic development for their country. It is important to consider that these sociological studies are conducted within the context of a totalitarian regime, and people are apprehensive about answering such questions. Nevertheless, they express their opposition to the war, Lukashenko, and their support for the democratic advancement of Belarus. They do not wish to become part of the Russian Federation,” he added. “The situation in Russia is different. There, the majority backs the war and supports Putin. It is imperative for us to establish a clear demarcation line and develop a suitable strategy. We should lend support to Belarusian society by endorsing the independent press, implementing diverse programs of assistance within the country, and recognizing the democratic forces of Belarus as a viable alternative to Lukashenko's unlawful governance. Furthermore, we must acknowledge the democratic structures of Belarus and hold Lukashenko accountable," he emphasized. The oppositionist cautioned that although the majority of Belarusians presently oppose both the war and Lukashenko, this majority is gradually diminishing. "People are losing faith in democracy as an effective instrument for achieving change. Consequently, it is crucial to hold Lukashenko and his associates accountable for their actions in Belarus. While an F-16 plane costs $54 million, support from Belarusian society comes at a significantly lower cost. I am not suggesting that aid for Ukraine be questioned or compromised. However, it should not be an 'either-or' scenario," he remarked. "Each country must prioritize its defense and procure necessary weapons. Our strategic objective is to support Ukraine, which we discuss and advocate for in all international meetings. Representatives of Belarus's democratic structures consistently affirm that the strategy of the democratic forces of Belarus is to support Ukraine. However, we must not forget about Belarusian society. If we lose their support, there is a risk that Belarusian soldiers could be prepared to invade neighboring countries and back Russia in a year, two, or three years. It would be a tragic outcome," cautioned the oppositionist. "Currently, Russia is the only country with a defined strategy concerning Belarus. We require a strategy accompanied by tangible actions, not mere rhetoric. This is precisely what Belarusians expect — concrete actions," appealed the activist. Belarusian issue "The resolution of the regional problems associated with the war instigated by Russia with the support of Lukashenko must include Belarus," emphasized Pavel Latushka, adding that it is essential to address the ‘Belarusian issue’ in order to comprehensively address the problems in the region. "We must recognize that ignoring Belarus, failing to pay attention to it, and not giving it the necessary focus will lead to further threats and complications. Let's consider what Lukashenko is currently doing: he continues to deliberately send hundreds of illegal migrants to the border, artificially destabilizing the situation. He does this both in his own interest and in the interest of Russia. If Belarus had a democratic government, such actions would not occur. Achieving this goal will be a challenging task. We have already lost valuable time, so let's not waste any more, or else we risk losing the support of society. If that happens, finding a solution may become impossible for decades," cautioned the Belarusian oppositionist. *** The interview with Pavel Latushka, deputy of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, former Minister of Culture, former ambassador to Poland and France, was conducted by Agnieszka Kamińska, PolskieRadio24.pl *** References to some of the documents and information mentioned above Lukashenko's meeting with activists in Vitebsk on December 15, 2021 The military doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus adopted on November 4, 2021 The law on the people's militia (Source: nashaniva.com) Increase in defense expences, with the amount being increased by 29.2 percent. A center for joint military exercises of Russia and Belarus will be established in Grodno. The decision was made on March 21 in Moscow. (Source: tass.ru) There has been an announcement of a new military doctrine in Belarus. An example of public opinion research in Belarus, conducted by an independent center.

Belgium has made the decision to join the group of friends of democratic Belarus in the OSCE. This group comprises over 10 partner countries that support the democratic forces in Belarus. The announcement was made by Jeroen Kurman, the Director General of the Belgian Foreign Ministry, during a working meeting with Pavel Latushka, the deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and the head of the NAM, at the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The primary focus of the meeting was the implementation of a strategy to provide support to Belarusian society, including backing independent media and promoting the national identity of Belarusians. During the meeting, discussions were held on the accountability of the Lukashenko regime for the committed crimes, including Belgium's support and that of international organizations in advocating for issues of Lukashenko's responsibility within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Separately, the responsibility of Lukashenko for war crimes related to the unlawful movement of Ukrainian children was also addressed. The functioning of democratic institutions in Belarus and the support they receive from the Belgian Foreign Ministry were also topics of discussion. Belgium currently holds the presidency of the European Union, with one of its priorities being the adoption of a collective decision on the coordination of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and the Russian Federation in response to their aggression against Ukraine. Special attention was given to the imposition of sanctions for the utilization of forced labor by political prisoners in Belarusian prisons within the realm of sanctions.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Pavel Latushka, the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of NAM, along with representatives of NAM, participated in a special meeting of the Working Group on Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which serves as the preparatory body for the Council of the EU. This working group prepares proposals for decision-making at the level of foreign ministers and heads of state of the EU. The primary focus of the meeting was to explore potential actions for holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for their crimes against the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples. On behalf of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Pavel Latushka outlined five possible mechanisms for bringing representatives of the regime to justice. The meeting was convened in accordance with a decision made by the Belarus-EU Consultative Group in Brussels in December 2023. During the group meeting, Pavel Latushka presented a strategic vision for the steps that the EU can take to support Belarusians, as well as actions aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of the sanctions policy against the Lukashenko regime. "Bringing Lukashenko to international accountability can potentially be achieved through at least five mechanisms: The International Criminal Court has jurisdiction over crimes against humanity, including deportation (the forced displacement of over 300,000 Belarusians from Belarus due to various forms of persecution can be considered as deportation); Recognition of Lukashenko as a war criminal. The ICC also has jurisdiction over the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus; Initiation of national investigations (in Poland, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Germany, and Switzerland) based on the principle of universal jurisdiction to hold those responsible accountable; The future Special International Tribunal for Russian Aggression in Ukraine would have jurisdiction to investigate the role of Lukashenko and his accomplices in the aggression; If established, the Special International Tribunal for Belarus could investigate all crimes against humanity committed against the Belarusian people." Pavel Latushka emphasized that the main driving force for achieving a free, democratic, and European Belarus is the Belarusian people. To further support this, concrete steps were proposed for consideration by the European Union: Identification of European partner countries willing to jointly undertake targeted legal action to refer evidence of crimes against humanity, particularly related to deportation, to the International Criminal Court; Advocacy by EU countries and support from Ukraine in initiating the issuance of an arrest warrant for Lukashenko for war crimes associated with the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus and their re-education; Priority support program for independent media; Support for the national identity of Belarusians and the promotion of Belarusian culture in emigration; Providing increased opportunities for Belarusians to visit the European Union and obtain multiple-entry Schengen visas. "The primary strategy is to support the Belarusian people. It is crucial for us to recognize that the Belarusian people are the main force within Belarus to counter and restrain Lukashenko, especially in the face of aggression against Ukraine. In 2020, Belarusians opposed the dictator, and in 2022, they stood against the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. If the Lukashenko regime decides to provide territory for the offensive of Russian troops into Ukraine or any EU member state, the Belarusian people will be our main strength. Therefore, they require motivation and support," emphasized Pavel Latushka. Pavel Latushka stressed that sanctions are one of several methods to exert pressure on the regime. "While it may appear that sanctions are becoming less effective over time, we should not discuss lifting sanctions but rather focus on enhancing their effectiveness. Here, we propose implementing several systemic steps: Harmonizing trade sanctions between Belarus and Russia to maximize their effectiveness and weaken the capabilities of aggressors. Restricting the transit of sanctioned goods through Belarus to address the issue of circumventing sanctions. This can be achieved through rigorous border control measures and, as an option, the introduction of EU trade quotas with third countries based on pre-war levels. Imposing sanctions on the financial infrastructure used to bypass restrictions, such as isolating SPFS (the Russian equivalent of SWIFT), as well as Belarusian banks, by closing their correspondent accounts in EU banks. Prioritizing sectoral sanctions over targeted sanctions on individual enterprises in the sanctions policy. Introducing sanctions against officials and institutions associated with the so-called Union State, which undermines the sovereignty and independence of Belarus. Sanctions targeting goods produced in Belarusian prisons as alternatives to banned goods. Implementing personal sanctions against regime judges involved in the repression of Belarusians, as well as propagandists who support aggression." Additionally, Pavel Latushka emphasized the importance of motivating Belarusian society and increasing the openness of the European Union to Belarusian citizens. This includes opening checkpoints for ordinary citizens while limiting the regime's ability to exploit trade for Russia's interests and expanding the financing of repression. During the discussion on the situation in Belarus, representatives from Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, and other countries presented their positions. The issue of legalizing the stay of Belarusian citizens who were forced to leave Belarus and are currently residing in EU countries was raised and discussed. The recognition of the Cabinet passport as an identification document for Belarusian citizens was also addressed. Separately, at the request of EU member states' representatives, concerns were raised about the regime's actions to change legislation following the declaration of martial law, the development of military infrastructure in Belarus, and the militaristic propaganda propagated by Lukashenko and regime representatives. Pavel Latushka also had a meeting with Ambassador Dirk Schuebel, the Special Representative of the European Union for the Eastern Partnership, to discuss the potential use of Eastern Partnership tools for cooperation with Belarusian society.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Lukashenko's draft decree, which proposes a reduction in the maximum cash payment for goods and services, has been submitted for so-called public discussion. Lukashenko's draft decree outlines a gradual reduction, over the next two years, of the maximum amount of cash payments accepted by legal entities and individual entrepreneurs from individuals. The reduction would decrease from 20,000 BYN (around 6,000 USD) to 4,000 BYN (around 1,200 USD) when selling goods, works, or services. This Decree was enacted against the backdrop of the fact that, since March 1 of this year, the security forces of the Lukashenko regime, including employees from the prosecutor's office, state security, internal affairs, the investigative committee, and the operational analytical center, have been granted 24-hour super access to all non-cash payments made by Belarusians. This access was granted based on a decree issued by the usurper in August 2023, which aimed to counter unauthorized payment transactions. Against this backdrop, security forces have already started calling Belarusians for "conversations," and have taken measures such as blocking their accounts. During these "conversations," individuals in uniform ask a standard set of questions, including full name, address, place of work, inquiries about cryptocurrency transactions, and details of payments or transfers made, including recipients and destinations. Typically, these inquiries are then forwarded to the investigative committee, potentially leading to a common scenario: the initiation of a criminal case, detainment, and a subsequent demand from the same security forces to resolve the case through payment. Refusal to comply could result in several years of imprisonment. Sadly, innocence or lack of wrongdoing holds little significance within the current system established by Lukashenko. The regime and its servants are in dire need of money. Starting from April 1, employers are also required to provide data on their employees' income to Lukashenko's tax system. This creates yet another "database" of Belarusians controlled by the regime, this time specifically related to income, which was established back in 2023. This regulation mandates that employers provide tax authorities with information regarding nearly all employee income, including benefits and personal income tax amounts. Furthermore, the updated tax code obligates banks to provide tax information about individual clients whose total incoming transactions for a calendar year exceed 150,000 BYN (around 45,700 USD). Hence, the Lukashenko regime aims to exercise complete control over the monetary transactions of Belarusians, enabling them to monitor income, entrepreneurial activities, and significant purchases such as apartments, country houses, or cars. This control could potentially lead to the seizure of what they deem as excess funds, favoring the dictator's loyal servants. In light of these circumstances, we once again recommend minimizing non-cash payments and considering alternatives to storing savings in Belarusian banks. It is crucial to remember that if a state of emergency or martial law is declared in Belarus, your accounts and savings may be frozen overnight. These measures to strengthen control over the finances of Belarusians occur simultaneously with an increase in the prices of various goods and services within our country, including mobile operator services and cigarettes. The illegitimate authorities are intensifying their control over so-called "parasites" and socially vulnerable groups of citizens. For instance, Belarusians traveling abroad for more than two months with children under three years of age will be required to inform social services. Consequently, these services will suspend benefit payments until the individuals return to the country. Failure to comply may result in becoming a debtor to the state and potentially facing criminal charges. Simultaneously, the regime is impacting Belarusians with counter-sanctions by prohibiting the import of numerous food products from European countries. Additionally, duty-free limits on parcels from abroad and goods imported by land are being reduced. It appears that Lukashenko has no intention of retracting his previous promise to eliminate entrepreneurs. Notably, Lukashenko's quasi-parliament has passed legislation that restricts the permitted types of activities for individual entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, in Minsk, new individual entrepreneurs have not been registered for the third consecutive year, allegedly due to technical reasons, resulting in a decrease of over 10,000 individual entrepreneurs in Belarus over the past year. Lukashenko is confidently steering the Belarusian economy towards a state resembling impoverished Cuba, where essential food products are currently in short supply.

The issue of holding Lukashenko accountable will be discussed within the European Union. On April 8 in Brussels, Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National-Anti-Crisis Management, will deliver a report at a special session of the Working Group on Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This group consists of authorized representatives from the 27 member countries of the European Union. During the session, Latushka will present his perspective on possible ways for holding Lukashenko and his associates accountable for crimes committed against the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples. The discussion on these matters at a high political level in the EU is being conducted in accordance with the agreements reached at the meeting of the Belarus-EU Consultative Group, which took place in Brussels in December 2023. Pavel Latushka will present five possible ways of utilizing international mechanisms to achieve the goal of accountability. Additionally, Pavel Latushka will hold meetings in Brussels with the leadership of the Belgian Foreign Ministry and the European External Action Service of the European Union.

On April 4-5, meetings of working groups established as part of the Strategic Dialogue between the United States and the democratic forces of Belarus are taking place. These events are a continuation of communication based on the outcomes of bilateral meetings held in Washington in December. During those meetings, six working groups were formed between US political representatives and the democratic forces of Belarus. "The creation of a platform for strategic dialogue between the United States and the democratic forces of Belarus is a significant political step by the United States in support of democratic transformations in Belarus. It is unprecedented, and as a Belarusian politician, I highly appreciate this initiative," stated Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management. The dialogue focuses on raising important and strategic issues for the future of the Belarusian people and the state within the established bilateral working groups. The main areas of dialogue include: Democracy and political matters; Human rights and political prisoners; Mechanisms of accountability; Private sector and entrepreneurship; Media and combating propaganda; Identity, culture, education, sports, and diaspora. Pavel Latushka, as a politician, shared his expectations from the strategic dialogue: "As the Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management and a representative in the Cabinet responsible for issues of regime accountability and sanctions policy, it is important to discuss specific mechanisms of pressure and holding representatives of the regime accountable. This involves discussing the use of tools such as the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and universal jurisdiction. In terms of sanctions policy, it is crucial to harmonize sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and Russia." Pavel Latushka also emphasized: "At the same time, I hope that the strategic dialogue will not only focus on discussing the challenges and threats faced by Belarusian society and statehood but will also lead to concrete steps to ensure that democracy and human rights prevail in Belarus. As a politician, I believe it is essential to prioritize supporting the democratic majority in Belarusian society by demonstrating the effectiveness of democratic institutions, democratic countries, and international legal mechanisms in achieving justice." The Belarusian people are our main strength and weapon. It is vital to continue motivating Belarusian society, proving that democracy is an effective system of governance capable of safeguarding human rights and freedoms, especially considering the severe repression faced by Belarusians, the most extensive in Europe in the past 50 years. What tools can be used to achieve this purpose? Pavel Latushka highlighted that democratic countries are encouraged to utilize the following tools to achieve the goal of democratizing Belarusian society and establishing a democratic form of government where the Belarusian people are the driving force behind political changes: Firstly, holding Lukashenko accountable. Currently, the Belarusian people are suffering, while the criminal actions of Lukashenko are not receiving sufficient international attention. The tactic of “not angering the dictator” is a strategic mistake with potentially dire consequences, eroding faith among Belarusians in the effectiveness of democracy and partners’ solidarity. Secondly, ensuring harmonized sanctions with Russia. Lukashenko leverages the economic ties between Russia and Belarus to benefit from sanctions, thereby maintaining a repressive apparatus and assisting Russia in its ongoing aggression against Ukraine. Thirdly, supporting independent media. There is a decline in support for independent media, despite the majority of Belarusian society being opposed to war and aggression. Reducing support for independent media will limit the availability of objective and free information for Belarusians. Fourthly, supporting national culture and identity. Russia, with the support of the dictator, systematically undermines the national identity of Belarusians, aiming to incorporate Belarus into Russia without military intervention in the future. It is crucial to acknowledge the ongoing destruction of Belarusian culture and statehood happening before the eyes of the world. Fifthly, increasing opportunities for Belarusians to interact with democratic countries, including visa issuance and simplifying border crossings. This is important for fostering pro-European sentiments in Belarus. The time has come for concrete steps. These steps may be small but should demonstrate to Belarusians that the democratic world stands united in its support for Belarusian society.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Pavel Latushka about the periodic suggestions not to "provoke" Lukashenko “These statements are astonishing and simply unacceptable to me. Let's remember August 2020 and consider whether we should really leave Lukashenko alone. How many people were detained simply for taking to the streets after the elections? Since that day, repressions in Belarus have reached unprecedented proportions. There were beatings, torture, and the most inhumane treatment carried out by security forces. Just consider this: in the heart of Europe, individuals who took to the streets following the rigged elections were compelled to run past a line of security forces armed with batons, who mercilessly beat them as if on an assembly line. Belarusians were coerced into kneeling for hours, lying face down on the ground with their hands bound behind their backs, and enduring prolonged stress positions. When they requested water, medicine, or the use of restroom facilities, the security forces responded with even greater cruelty, resorting to the use of force. People were marked with markers indicating the severity of their beatings. For the castigators, this served as an indication that the person had not yet been "processed." Upon being detained, individuals were piled on top of each other, forced to trample on national symbols, and subjected to abuse if they spoke Belarusian. The Okrestino detention center functioned as a real torture camp. Cells originally designed for 6-7 people were crammed with 30-40 individuals, lacking proper ventilation. This occurred during the coronavirus epidemic. Detainees were deprived of food, receiving only one bottle of water per day. Meanwhile, agonizing screams from tortured detainees reverberated in neighboring cells. What can we call all that? The regime led by Lukashenko committed a genuine crime against humanity through acts of torture. Such a brutal treatment of the people cannot be forgotten. And has it stopped? We know the answer: “No”. Should we forget these acts of torture, the horrors endured, and the lives lost? Is it worthwhile to simply turn the page and erase this from the history of the Belarusian people?

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Lukashenko's statement that he is preparing for war has made a lot of noise. How to assess it? Are these empty threats or is there really a threat of war for Belarus? Let's try to understand. First of all, this is not the first such statement of the usurper. He already said something similar in late February at a meeting with the leadership of his security forces. Then he said: "We don't need war, so we must be prepared for it both mentally and strategically. <...> We all, first of all people in uniform, simply have to be ready to repel any threats." At that time, he posed the NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 exercise as a threat. But can Lukashenko really believe that NATO will attack Belarus under the cover of the exercises? I think it is worth recalling here who did exactly that in February 2022. Who made a full-scale invasion of Ukraine under the cover of the exercise "Union Resolve 2022". The answer is Russia and the Lukashenko regime, which secured the invasion of Ukraine from the territory of our country. And despite this, neither Ukraine nor NATO has committed a single military response against Belarus. Not a single bomb, not a single missile flew to Belarus, despite more than 800 hundred missile strikes that were carried out on Ukraine from the territory of our country. So what kind of war is Lukashenko preparing for? I suggest going back a couple of months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and remember what Lukashenko said at a meeting with his activists in Vitebsk region on December 15, 2021: "No war has passed us by in the past, nor will it pass us by now. God forbid it will be unleashed. Therefore, my task is to protect the state and the people from war. <...> I do not want our people to find themselves once again on the fault line and God forbid in the center of some war. And in order for us not to be there, we must be prepared for it. That is why the new governor, chairmen of district executive committees, city executive committees, you know that we have territorial defense and territorial troops. Look at the facilities that you will have to defend on the ground in case of what happens. Sort everything out." Just a month earlier, the updated Military Doctrine of the so-called Union State had been signed. A joint regional grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia was created. And 2 months after Lukashenko's statement, a full-scale war against Ukraine began. In which Lukashenko's regime became a co-aggressor. That is, any talk that Lukashenko did not know, did not expect such a development of events is, excuse me, utter nonsense. He knew and he was preparing. The only thing he was wrong about was the response of Ukraine. Ukraine decided not to respond with blows to blows, not to transfer the war to the territory of Belarus. And this is solely the merit of Ukraine itself. All Lukashenko's words that he is "protecting Belarus from war" and all the claims of the supporters of this narrative are the same nonsense as the fact that Lukashenko allegedly did not expect that the war in Ukraine would come from the territory of Belarus. Lukashenko dragged Belarus into war. He committed an act of aggression. And nothing can undo this fact. Lukashenko did not protect anyone, did not save anyone. And, no matter how harsh it sounds, Ukraine had the right to respond. Russian military facilities, military-industrial complex facilities at the moment when war came from Belarus to Ukraine, when missiles flew from Belarus to Ukraine — all these became legitimate targets for Ukraine. But Ukraine did not use this right. And it still doesn't to this day. While Ukraine's strikes against legitimate targets in Russia are becoming more and more active. Ukraine is now methodically hitting Russian refineries, depriving Russia of fuel for the war. Belarusian refineries, which will obviously be used to compensate for some of Russia's losses, again, remain untouched. And now Lukashenko once again declares that he is preparing for war. At the same time, Russia announced a spring draft, during which 150 thousand people will be called up for service. This is the largest draft in Russia for the last 8 years. How should we understand Lukashenko's statement? This is a case where his words should be taken literally. He is indeed preparing for war, just as he did in December 2021. Moreover, just like then, he surely knows when it will happen. And he knows that this time no one will tolerate aggression from the territory of Belarus — and there will be military retaliation. Lukashenko knows that war will come to Belarus. And he knows it because, as in February 2022, he is not going to do anything to prevent this war. As then, so now he obediently follows orders from the Kremlin. As then, so now he is no master in the house, but a puppet who will do whatever his master demands. Lukashenko's regime has been living on borrowed time for dozens of years, feeding off the Russian hand for dozens of years. It is only thanks to Russia's support that he stayed in power after 2020. And it is us who are paying for it. And we are paying a terrible price. The actions of Lukashenko's regime have already brought Belarus to the brink of losing its independence. They have already led to an act of aggression in the sense of international law. And now they are leading to the fact that the war going on our country's doorstep may cross it. And when Lukashenko says that he is preparing for war but actually wants peace, that he doesn't really want war — he is lying. Because if he really doesn't want war — he knows what needs to be done. Lukashenko must go. Because he and his dependence on Russia are the reason why our country is threatened with war. Lukashenko's departure and holding democratic elections are the most reliable defense against this threat. The people of Belarus are for independence, for democracy and against war. And that is why it is the Belarusian people, not the usurper, who thinks only about how to sit in his chair, who should be the subject that determines policy, makes decisions and preserves peace on their land.

Pavel Latushka, the head of the NAM and deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet, delivered a lecture at the Faculty of International Law at the University of Bialystok, discussing the existing legal mechanisms for holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for the international crimes they have committed. What are these mechanisms? The first mechanism is the State referral of the „Belarus situation” to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. Some may argue that since Belarus is not a party to the Rome Statute, the ICC does not have jurisdiction over international crimes committed in our country. However, the jurisprudence and practice of the ICC suggests that the Court can potentially exercise at least jurisdiction over the crime against humanity of deportation, which refers to situations where the civilian population is forced to leave a country's territory due to an “atmosphere of fear and terror” created by the perpetrators. Civilians who were compelled to flee Belarus to Poland after being persecuted on political grounds by the Lukashenko regime can be considered victims of deportation. Since Poland is a state party to the ICC and deportation is a crime committed on the territory of at least two countries (Belarus and Poland), it is possible to establish the ICC's jurisdiction. Poland has the right to refer the "situation in Belarus" to the ICC Prosecutor's Office for potential investigation. The second mechanism is universal jurisdiction. This principle allows states to investigate the most serious international crimes, even if they were committed on the territory of another country and neither the perpetrator nor the victim are nationals of the state initiating the criminal investigation. Applications have already been submitted under this mechanism in Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Germany, and Switzerland. The third mechanism is the referral of the dispute to the International Court of Justice. Considering the widespread commission of acts constituting torture and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment, there are grounds to assert that Belarus has violated its obligations under the relevant international Convention against Torture of 1984, to which Belarus is a party. Since the violated provisions of the Convention are obligations to the entire world community (erga omnes), virtually any state party to the Convention can file an application against Belarus to the International Court of Justice. Furthermore, A. Lukashenko and his accomplices may be subject to criminal liability for war crimes. With the onset of Russia's large-scale war against Ukraine, in which the Lukashenko regime is involved, the NAM has been documenting instances of the illegal displacement of children from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus. Such actions potentially constitute a war crime. It is known that from September 2022 to May 2023, approximately 2,100 children aged 6 to 15 years, hailing from at least 15 occupied Ukrainian cities, were transported to the Belarusian Dubrava camp under the pretext of "rehabilitation." In this regard, the NAM has prepared and submitted two Communications under Article 15 of the Rome Statute to the ICC Prosecutor's Office.

Bielsk Podlaski Abstracts of the speech March 25, 2024 Dear Mr. Director, Mr. Prefect, Mr. Burgomaster, dear parents’ council, dear teachers and students of the Lyceum, It is a great honor for me to speak today on such an important day and in such a unique place as the Second General Education Lyceum with the Belarusian language of study, named after Bronislaw Tarashkevich, in Bielsk Podlaski. With great respect and gratitude for your invaluable work, I congratulate the management, teachers, students, and everyone present here on the 80th anniversary of the Lyceum. I am proud that I have the opportunity to speak to you in my native Belarusian language, to see so many talented, wonderful, educated young people, boys and girls, to know that we understand each other perfectly and have a common love for Belarus in our hearts—and this invaluable opportunity exists thanks to each and every one of you. Thank you very much for this. And it is even more valuable to meet you on the day of one of the main holidays for Belarusians around the world—Freedom Day. A holiday that unites us with common values that make us who we are. After all, what is the will of the Belarusians? Who are we, and what do we want? The Belarusian classic Yanka Kupala said, "We want to be called people." But what kind of people? Belarusians. And this national consciousness is our most important choice. The first step is to be a free and conscious person. Belarusians did not have freedom for a long time. But step by step, they walked towards it. Step by step, difficult, sometimes bloody, sometimes starting all over again, sometimes waiting for an opportune historical moment. But Belarusians did not stop their struggle for freedom. The struggle for their land, independence, and statehood. For being called Belarusians. On March 25, 1918, this path led to the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic, the first national state of Belarusians. 106 years have passed since then. And these years have not been easy for Belarusians. But for the 106th time, we commemorate that most important historical event when we declared to the whole world: we exist, we have the will, we have national consciousness, and we have the right to build our future. We are Belarusians. We live, hence Belarus lives! And today, on the 106th anniversary of the declaration of independence of the BPR, on our Freedom Day, I am glad to say these words. I am glad to see responsible Belarusians who preserve their traditions, culture, faith, and roots in an independent, European, and democratic Poland. The Belarusian minority in Poland, here in Podlasie, is a vivid example of the responsible preservation of what came to you from your grandfathers and great-grandfathers since the dawn of time. And I thank you for not losing your national consciousness, for not losing our language, our culture, Belarusian traditions, the traditions of your fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers, for preserving the Belarusian spirit and these valuable grains. Unfortunately, today a terrible regime reigns in Belarus, which destroys the Belarusian national spirit, our culture and language, which also fights against the Polish ethnic minority living in Belarus. Belarusians in Poland and Poles in Belarus are the wealth of the two countries, something that should unite us and be a bridge to cooperation. Unfortunately, the current dictatorial regime does not understand this and opposes good neighborly relations between the two peoples. I believe that Belarus will soon reject dictatorship, and we will be like two European states. Belarus and Poland will cooperate and even open borders as they do in the European Union. It is important that the authorities of Poland, the authorities of Podlasie, and Bielsk Podlaski support Belarusians in Podlasie. I hope that this will always be the case. I believe that such a wonderful institution as the II Lyceum with the Belarusian language of study will celebrate not only its 80th anniversary but also its 100th anniversary and many, many years later. Thank you for the invitation. Thank you for your attention. Happy holiday, happy anniversary! Long live Belarus!