The "Belarusian Deal" must be at the core of EU and US policy
- 7 дней назад
- 11 мин. чтения
Theses of the speech by Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, at the Berlin Belarus Future Forum 2025
20.10.2025
Madam Vice-Chair of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Kristina Kampmann,Dear colleagues in the democratic movement,Mr. Director for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia at the Federal Foreign Office, Dr. Niklas Wagner,Ladies and gentlemen,
First of all, let me thank you for the opportunity to speak at the Berlin Belarus Future Forum 2025. I would like to thank Germany for its steady support for democratic change in Belarus and for the democratic future of an independent Belarus. I would also like to express my gratitude to the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, the Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung, the Heinrich Böll Stiftung, as well as the German Federal Foreign Office, for organizing this Forum.
This Forum is about the future of Belarus. And I want to start with a question:
What will Belarus have no future without?
Without independence, Belarus has no future. And yet, it is Lukashenko’s policy that has damaged Belarus's independence, making it dangerously close to a Russian region. It has transformed our country’s territory into a Russian military base and a permanent threat to the safety of Belarusians and our neighbors.
Without security, Belarus has no future. It is the Lukashenko’s policy that brought war to the doorstep of Belarus and the European Union, into our airspace. It opened the doors to the Russian army and brought war to Ukraine, where the regime is a co-aggressor. And his hybrid aggression against Europe has built a wall on the border with the EU. Yes, Europe built the wall to defend itself from aggression, but the architect of that wall is Alexander Lukashenko. And until his policy changes—until we force Lukashenko to change it—security will not return to Belarus, to Ukraine, or to Europe as a whole.
Without national identity, Belarus has no future. And it is Lukashenko's policy that has led to the ongoing destruction of everything national—from the language, books, and publishers to symbols and holidays—all to turn Belarus into a mini-Russia for his Kremlin boss.
Without civil society, Belarus has no future. And it is Lukashenko's targeted policy that has wiped out nearly two thousand NGOs in Belarus. Just think: he simply destroyed every organization inside the country that you, democratic nations, and the citizens of Belarus supported.
Will he allow these organizations to return to Belarus? Never. He has called all of them extremist or terrorist, and opened criminal cases against all members. In place of these organizations, the state is actively creating militarized organizations. These groups stand strongly against all democratic and European values, calling them hostile. At the same time, the door is wide open for pro-Russian organizations.
Belarus has no future without independent media, bloggers, and new media. And it is Lukashenko's targeted policy that has led to their complete shutdown inside Belarus. The situation is exactly the same as with NGOs.
Without a new generation, Belarus has no future. Lukashenko saw his real support level in 2020. Since then, his targeted policy has actively focused on the brainwashing and militarization of children. From early years, children are forced into military-patriotic clubs, groups, and other paramilitary events to raise a generation that hates democracy and is ready for violence and war to defend the dictatorship. Right now, the Lukashenko regime is stealing the future from the country and the Belarusian people, blocking the nation from building a civilized, European civil society, even years from now.
Belarus has no future without a political alternative. This targeted policy of Lukashenko has lasted over 30 years. From the start of his rule, he has used every method to destroy his political rivals. He killed them. He murdered Gonchar, Zakharenko, Krasovski. He broke up the democratically elected Supreme Council. He has always thrown every potential opponent in jail just for trying to run in an election.
And right now, he persecutes all those he could not catch—those forced to leave since 2020—even here: he plans assassination attempts, issues hundreds of absentee verdicts, adds us to wanted lists, and constantly threatens our health and lives. This affects not just direct political rivals, not just the political institutions of the Belarusian democratic forces—the United Transitional Cabinet and the Coordination Council—but also any active person who opposes the regime. More than 600,000 people have been effectively forced or deported since 2020. And even after this, the repression against all of us—now cross-border persecution—has not stopped.
Here are a few examples:
Since the start of this year alone, the Lukashenko regime has opened at least 970 criminal cases against Belarusians abroad, mostly those living in Poland and Lithuania.
The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus has been named a terrorist group by the regime.
Lukashenko’s Investigative Committee has opened criminal cases against all 257 candidates who ran in the Coordination Council elections. The Committee charged every single candidate with four sections of the Belarusian Criminal Code. Nevertheless, despite the pressure, the elections took place, for which I am grateful to every participant and voter. It is important for me to emphasize this as the leader of the faction that received the highest number of votes in the Coordination Council elections.
Sentences given in absentia, searches and seizing of property in Belarus, pressure on family members, massive campaigns to discredit politicians and activists, constant threats, planned assassinations, organized attacks, abductions, and disappearances—this is the reality faced by Belarusians in forced exile, the reality faced by the democratic forces. But we are withstanding this attack, we have stood strong for 5 years, and we will keep standing strong. We continue to fight. Because we know:
Our country does not and cannot have a future without justice. Lukashenko's policy aims to totally destroy the rule of law in Belarus and turn legislation into a tool for state violence. Lukashenko claims there are no political prisoners in Belarus because there are supposedly no "political articles" in the law.
But over 1,220 people are officially recognized as political prisoners and are in the regime's jails right now. More than 4,200 people have been called political prisoners since the 2020 presidential campaign began. Over 8,400 people have faced political criminal charges, about 7,120 people have been convicted, and over 4,000 people have been or remain imprisoned for long terms. We must not be fooled by so-called "pardons" and "releases," thinking the regime’s policy has changed. The root problem—the repressive legislative practices—has not gone away. That is why Lukashenko has locked up even more people to replace those he "released."
In total, no fewer than 100,000 Belarusians have gone through different forms of the punitive system for political reasons—we cannot call it a law enforcement or justice system.
Think about it: that is 100,000 documented cases of state violence since 2020: searches, interrogations, short-term and long-term detentions. I repeat, because of political persecution and the political situation in Belarus, about 600,000 people were forced to leave Belarus. This was due to a targeted state policy to create an atmosphere of terror and fear for anyone who disagreed. And for none of them has justice and fairness been achieved yet.
This is true even though international tools and ways to ensure justice can help, at least in part. The situation with the cross-border persecution of Belarusians has reached a scale unseen in Europe.
Thanks to the Government of Lithuania, this issue is under the first review of the International Criminal Court’s Prosecutor's Office. Support for Lithuania's action from other countries is essential because the scale of the Lukashenko regime's cross-border crimes is huge, and getting justice for the victims and holding those responsible to account is an urgent need.
Today, we will talk about the future. I have just highlighted the conditions without which this conversation makes no sense.
I hear voices saying, "Let's just agree with Lukashenko. Let's admit defeat. Let's give him everything he wants, and in return, accept the minimum he will agree to." The language of deals and bargaining has been heard often lately. I ask: can a deal be called good if its foundation is the denial of a future for Belarus?
The future is not about tactics; it is about strategy.
Lukashenko’s regime's strategy is completely clear. What’s more, this strategy is an integral part of Russia’s strategy. So, I ask again: can a deal be called good if it is based on turning Belarus into a mini-Russia and an anti-Europe? The Lukashenko regime is not only unable to create anything else, but it has no intention to. All his policies and actions prove this.
Was he provoked? This opinion also exists. But this is called victim-blaming. It is the same as saying that a robber was provoked by someone's riches, a rapist by someone's beauty, and a murderer by someone's will to live.
Belarusians are a people who are truly rich and beautiful in spirit, morality, and values. And we truly want to live—in a free, independent, democratic, and peaceful country. No one can blame us for this. But this is exactly what Lukashenko accuses us of. He lacks all these qualities and pathologically hates everyone who possesses them. He pathologically hates the people who carry the values commonly called European, even though these values are universal.
But hatred can never be the way out.
And everything I have listed—all the necessary conditions for Belarus to have a future—all of this completely aligns with the desires of the majority of Belarusians, with our values, and with our definition of Belarus as the state where the Belarusian people want to live.
And all of this is the subject of a national dialogue. This dialogue is necessary for our country, for our people, to escape this... this is no longer just a crisis, but a political dead-end—a dead-end of terror, degradation and hatred for dissent, that Lukashenko has driven our country into with his policy. Changing this policy is the goal of the national dialogue.
I am sure that Belarusians as a people are ready for it, because they have all the qualities of a party that is ready for negotiation and honesty, which are needed for a true dialogue.
Belarusians proved this in 2020 by holding massive, but purely peaceful, protests against election fraud. In 2021, when they voted for a national dialogue to overcome the crisis. In 2022, when despite the ongoing state violence and terror, they still came out for peaceful protests against the war.
But Lukashenko had no other answer to any of society's demands except to make the repression even harsher, create an even greater divide between the government and society, and lead the country into an even deeper dead-end: dragging it into war and pushing Belarus's sovereignty to the very brink of being lost.
Today, Lukashenko says he is ready for a Big Deal with the United States. And he wants Europe to be part of this deal. His envoys, as we know well, are knocking on Europe's doors.
He wants a Big Deal with the West. But he has no Big Deal for Belarusians!
A deal, in his mind, is a deal with him, where he seeks to solve his own problems, and only his own, without any real change in policy or solving the internal Belarusian crisis. He wants sanctions lifted, to escape accountability, gain international recognition, and return to business as usual.
What is he trading in this deal? Hostages. Political prisoners. His false rhetoric of peacekeeping, hoping to sell "Minsk-3" to the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine.
In exchange, he wants what I said above. At the same time, he openly shows that:– His internal policy—that is, terror and dictatorship—cannot be a subject for any discussion.– He has no intention of talking with the democratic forces, who represent the aspirations of the majority of Belarusian society.
And I return to the language of deals. Can a deal be considered good when its foundation is the Lukashenko regime denying a future for Belarus? Because if the status quo is kept, and his policies don't change, Belarus has no future.
And most importantly: can you really make any global deal with someone who is unable to make a deal inside his own country? If Lukashenko refuses a national dialogue, refuses to talk with democratic forces, and refuses to solve the internal Belarusian crisis—can he be trusted as a partner in a bigger crisis-solving dialogue? The answer is clearly no. Without an agreement with society, there can be no external deals.
Because one of the main causes of the global crisis is actually located in Belarus. Without changing the situation inside Belarus—and that means without changing the regime's repressive internal policy—any solution to the global crisis will not be lasting. It will not be strategic. Because strategy is about the future. The West has already tried tactics many times with Lukashenko. And we can see the result of those tactical choices. It is, to put it mildly, unsatisfactory.
The only way to ensure a strategic solution to the crisis is a national dialogue.
A real national dialogue, not a fake one. And in this dialogue, the democratic forces must be the subject, not the object. Otherwise, the internal Belarusian crisis will not be solved. Without the pro-European democratic forces taking part in the country's political life, there will be no policy change. Crucially, there also will be no checks and balances, nothing to counter Russian influence in Belarus. Simply put: if there is no internal, Belarusian deal, there will be no guarantee for the success of any Big Deal you make.
It is important to remember that only the Belarusian people can act as the guarantor for the execution of any deal, the guarantor of peace and security. The anti-war stance of Belarusian society—this national consensus—is the first line of defense for Europe against the direct aggression of the Lukashenko regime. To leave Belarusian society out of the Big Deal, to leave it alone with Lukashenko and the Kremlin, means giving up this guarantee of security.
A deal without strategic guarantees is an empty deal. And there have been enough such deals with Lukashenko throughout his history of relations to know how they end.
What should be done? There is the path offered by those who call themselves "pragmatists"—to enter a tactical deal. That means: a deal on Lukashenko’s terms.
There is another way. To remember the strategic interests and tools that Europe and the US hold. And to use these as the basis for communication with the Lukashenko regime. Communication from a position of strength, when both Europe and the US clearly state the conditions for concluding any Big Deal.
And I hope that our Western partners—both European and American—and we ourselves, remember the importance of real, not cosmetic, change to the current policy of the Lukashenko regime. And that the following is necessary:
An immediate end to repressions;
Release of all political prisoners;
Guarantees for the safe return of Belarusian exiles and guarantees against subsequent prosecution;
Security guarantees for opposition politicians and their supporters;
Legalization of political and civic activities in Belarus, legalization of independent media and their activities in Belarus;
Stopping the repressive law enforcement practices against politicians and civil society representatives, canceling the “extremist” and “terrorist” labels assigned to politicians, activists, organizations, and media;
Abolishment of laws and decisions that limit the rights of Belarusians abroad (such as the decree on passports, notary requirements, foreign polling stations);
Final resolution of the migration crisis and end to hybrid war against Europe;
Stopping all support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Otherwise — pressure on the Lukashenko regime must remain and grow stronger, not the opposite.
And secondly, that real dialogue, not its imitation, is necessary—with democratic forces, our political institutions: the President-elect, the Cabinet, and the Coordination Council, and the most engaged actors of the democratic movement—leading to a Round Table to conclude the "Belarusian Deal." Without democratic forces—not the dictator's "pocket opposition"—dialogue is impossible and can not be accepted.
And it is vital that in the upcoming European Parliament Resolution—which I hope will be adopted tomorrow, and which is a truly strong resolution—the European Parliament plans to recognize the role and agency of our institutions.
Lukashenko must receive this signal: without the "Belarusian Deal," there will be no Big Deal. There will be no lifting of sanctions, no end to the isolation, and no bridges to the West.
It is important to remember that the main sanction tools are in Europe’s hands. A huge share of Belarus's economic interests, which are currently lost, are in Europe. And the border with Europe is exactly where the line of isolation for the Lukashenko regime runs today.
This is why it is so important for him to include Europe in the Big Deal. And this is exactly why Europe's position is strong enough to dictate the terms of the deal. And to turn it from a tactical one into a strategic one.
It is Europe that will soon decide whether it is acceptable to negotiate about us without us.
Thank you for your attention.