The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus 24 June, 2023 Belarusians! The fate of our country is being decided now. It is a question of the existence of our state. It depends only on us if we are able to free ourselves from the imperial oppression of Russia and to build a free and independent state of the Republic of Belarus. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus appeals to all the Belarusians to unite around one goal which is to free ourselves from the dictatorial tyranny of Lukashenko and from Russian oppression. The Cabinet set up by President-elect Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya, as the only legitimate authority in Belarus, takes responsibility for the fate of Belarus and the Belarusian people. The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus: declares that the decisions of Lukashenko's "government" and its Security Council are legally null and void in Belarus and beyond; denounces the treaties establishing the Union State of Belarus and Russia, announces the withdrawal of the Republic of Belarus from the CSTO, EEU, and CIS; considers the participation of the Belarusian military in an armed conflict in Russia unacceptable. In this connection, we demand that the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus immediately close the border between Belarus and Russia, that the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus ensure the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus, and that preparations to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus be stopped. The Cabinet has decided to set up an operational headquarters and calls on the nationally oriented forces of Belarus to support this decision and join the operational headquarters. The Cabinet considers it a priority to continue supporting Ukraine and the Ukrainian people in their struggle to liberate Ukraine and defeat Russia. The Cabinet urges you to join the “Peramoga” plan and prepare for active action to restore law and order in the country. This is a historic moment for our state, for every Belarusian man and woman, we believe in our victory and we will fight together for the independence of Belarus! Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of the Republic of Belarus Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya 24 June 2023 Vilnius, Warsaw

Allowing Moscow to place tactical nuclear weapons on its soil is just the latest sign of its loss of sovereignty to the Kremlin, military experts and pro-democracy activists say Original article: nytimes.com Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian diplomat and minister turned dissident, has published evidence that Belarus is complicit in the forced displacement of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territory. Prosecutors from the International Criminal Court in March issued arrest warrants for Putin and his children’s rights commissioner accusing them of deporting thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia. In late May, Latushka presented Ukrainian prosecutors with the names and details of approximately a dozen children from Russian-occupied Ukraine who were brought to camps in Belarus. In an interview, he said that as of last month about 2,150 Ukrainian children had been brought to at least three camps run by state-owned companies in Belarus, including the Belaruskali potash company. Belaruskali was placed under E.U. and U.S. sanctions in the wake of Mr. Lukashenko’s violent suppression of the pro-democracy protests. Ukrainian prosecutors have confirmed that they are investigating Mr. Latushka’s accusations. Mr. Latushka said he discovered documents signed under the auspices of the “Union State,” a vague alignment of Russia and Belarus, that ordered the movement of Ukrainian children that has been carried out. The decision is signed personally by Lukashenko,” who currently chairs the supranational body’s leadership council. The apparent positioning of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is also part of agreements made in the Union State, though the Kremlin has said all of the nuclear materials will be under Russian control. The nuclear weapons are a source of pride for Mr. Lukashenko, who thinks they will “give him the ability to stay in power until his death,” said Mr. Latushka. Ms. Tikhanovskaya said it seemed like some Western leaders were “trying to whitewash Lukashenko,” justifying their tepid response out of the belief that he had at least not joined the invasion — though there are allegations that Belarusian officers are training Russian recruits. Rather than resisting pressure to join forces with Putin, she said, Lukashenko was deeply concerned about stirring domestic unrest over a war that remains unpopular in Belarus. If that should spark another major uprising he could be forced to appeal to Moscow for security assistance. And that, Mr. Latushka said, could be the final step toward Mr. Putin’s ultimate goal: “To absorb Belarus.”

It is important to note that the following article is not an original article, but a retelling and review of an original article published by the editors of Radio Racyja. In the original article, the main character and central figure is Pavel Latushko, a well-known politician, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Source article: racyja.com In Belarus, they have already started to talk about the elections; at least Alexander Lukashenko has already said twice that it is worth preparing for the 2024 election campaign. And he met with Karpenko, who is now chairman of the Central Committee, the processes of preparing for the elections have already started. I would like to draw attention to the fact that Lukashenko, speaking about the elections, mentioned the USA and said that there is no democracy there at all, let them see the Belarusian elections as they should be. What is the reaction to this? Pavel Latushko: First of all, if we look at how many presidents have changed, and Lukashenko still rules in Belarus, this is the answer to the question of whether there is democracy in the United States or not. How many congressmen and senators have changed during this time and how all these procedures are conducted. How the independent media and the media in general work in the United States. Therefore, this discussion is simply pointless. We must understand that the main principle of democracy is the alternation of power. If there is no alternation of power, it turns into an autocracy, a dictatorship, a totalitarian system - something we have been witnessing for 30 years of Lukashenko's rule in Belarus. If he simply is not aware of himself, what to say about reality. He already thinks that only he may think for the entire Belarusian people, that only he has this unique right, because he even says, "If there's a war, if I have to use nuclear weapons, I will use them, I do not need any consultations with the society. To me this is just an unacceptable situation! This is a sick man who now rules in Belarus. I think the majority of Belarusians agree with me. Lukashenko said that we do know that 80% of the Belarusians support the chosen course. Does this mean that they are already preparing for it by 80%? Pavel Latushko: Let's understand one more thing, this cannot be called an election. The first reason is that there is no legal, legitimate authority in Belarus at the moment. Neither Lukashenko, nor his pocket parliament have the right to call elections in Belarus, because they are not legitimate, recognized authorities. So let's call these elections so called. There used to be none in Belarus, because Lukashenko always personally determined the list when it came to parliamentary campaigns. So there are no elections in Belarus and there won't be any until Lukashenko is functionally in power in our country. 80% is his dream. He never got 80% of the vote in Belarus even in 1994. And if Belarus goes the way of the successor, if Lukashenko says he won't run anymore, there was talk of Kachanova and some other people. Pavel Latushko: Lukashenko may have such a backup. We are also hearing rumors that he may be preparing for this transit, but will be very afraid of it. He sees the example of Nazarbayev. What happened in Kazakhstan. And he is scared of this situation. I can't imagine Lukashenko giving up his control over the power apparatus. After all, not to control the way he controls the power apparatus today means to create the risk of its further existence in Belarus. Of course, he has already prepared himself a reserve airfield in China, where his son Kolya is already located, and therefore the Belarusians must know where he will run first, if the situation changes - it is China. Of course, he could go in transit, but I am skeptical.

Original article: dw.com The first nuclear warheads have already been moved and are in Belarus, Vladimir Putin said on June 16. The Russian president first announced Russia's plans to deploy its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in March 2023. Alexander Lukashenko did not seem to have to be persuaded to do this: he insisted that he himself "long ago asked Putin about this" and repeatedly reiterated that withdrawing nuclear weapons from the country was a mistake. Western politicians reacted to the possible relocation of nuclear weapons in a nuclear-weapon-free country with restrained statements. Meanwhile, Belarusian democratic forces are calling for "tough action". Otherwise, in their view, the move "will lead to the complete loss of political subjectness of Belarus. Why? Majority of Belarusian Population Doesn't Support Nuclear Weapons in Belarus Nuclear arms "inherited" from the USSR started to be withdrawn from Belarus about 30 years ago. In November 1996 the last nuclear charges left the territory of the country. Almost 27 years later, if we believe the president of the Russian Federation, they returned to Belarus. Moreover, the majority of the Belarusian population, including staunch Lukashenko supporters, do not support the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko himself gave an interview to the TV channel "Russia 1" and looked extremely pleased with the fact that nuclear weapons are returning to Belarus. According to Lukashenko, they will have a deterrent function. Despite the fact that Russia will control it, the Belarusian politician is confident that he will be able to control it "with a phone call." "Look, if a war breaks out, will I look around? No. I picked up the phone - wherever he (Putin) is. He called - I picked up the phone, any time. Even right now. So, well, what's the problem of coordinating some kind of strike there?" - Lukashenko stated. "Control over the sovereignty of Belarus." "I've said it many times: it's completely irresponsible," was how U.S. President Joe Biden commented the same day, June 16, on Putin's statement about moving Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. According to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the president's administration is "closely monitoring" the situation in Belarus and Russia, but at this point sees no reason to change the nuclear strategy. According to U.S. officials, there are no signs that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons. "As for Belarus itself, this is another example of Lukashenko making an irresponsible, provocative choice, ceding control over the sovereignty of Belarus against the will of the Belarusian people," said Blinken. In his turn, the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Alliance "is taking seriously Russia's announcement of the nuclear weapons deployment in Belarus. According to him, NATO "saw preparations for its deployment." "It's not possible to build such a storage facility in a couple of months." Pavel Podvig, a researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (Geneva) doubts that Russian nuclear weapons could have been moved to Belarus so quickly. He explains that it is not enough to store nuclear warheads "just walls or a bunker" - special conditions are required: "An adequate storage facility has to be built. It's quite a complex engineering structure with systems to control access to it, defense, not to mention the creation of climatic conditions. I am convinced that such a storage facility cannot be built in a couple of months. According to the expert there are about 30 depositories of this kind for nuclear weapons on the territory of Russia. The Twelfth Main Directorate of the Defense Ministry controls them. Podvig is sure that this function will not be delegated to other units. "I am sure that at the institutional level, at the level of this administration there will be strong resistance to moving the warheads anywhere from Russia to another place. Of course, one cannot completely rule out such a scenario: this is a military structure-it can simply be ordered to do so. Just to give Lukashenko the opportunity to make any statements, there is no need to actually use the ammunition in Belarus," says the expert. Belarus is "chained by steel chains to the Russian Federation. The Belarusian democracy movement draws attention to other aspects of what happened. "Nobody defended the sovereignty - not even verbally," says Pavel Latushka, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) and member of the United Transitional Cabinet. In his opinion, "a terrible thing" happened on June 16: "They actually concreted us, chained us to the Russian Federation with steel chains. Latushko is sure: even if the Russian nuclear weapons have not been moved onto the territory of Belarus yet, it will happen soon anyway. At the same time, the democratic forces of Belarus differ in their evaluations from politicians from the EU and the US, who consider that there is no increase of the threat, Latushko says. "Allegedly, it doesn't matter where the nuclear weapons are located: in Kaliningrad region, on the territory of Russia or in Belarus. But we perceive this situation from the point of view of the fact that actually on Friday it was announced that the Republic of Belarus had lost its sovereignty. In addition, after the placement of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, Lukashenko has lost his subjects. He will never again allow himself to say what would be contrary to the interests of the Kremlin. How the EU and the U.S. act towards Belarus According to Pavel Latushko, the EU and the U.S. still have no strategy on how to act against Belarus. "The only country that has a strategy towards our country is Russia. The Union State is a tool for implementing this strategy," admits the Belarusian opposition politician. In his opinion, restrained statements on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus are not enough: "There must be a very tough public position that Lukashenko is not the leader of the country. Western partners must immediately hold consultations about the fulfillment of the obligations they undertook to the Belarusian people within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. But no one even tries to initiate consultations on this issue. In addition, it is necessary to continue imposing tough sanctions against Lukashenko's regime. What does Pavel Latushka himself plan to do in connection with the announced deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus? "I will work out a strategy from the point of view of both the European Union and our American partners. A very clear, productive strategy. How to restore our country's subjectness, independence and sovereignty? We are now talking about the existence of the state of the Republic of Belarus. We must clearly understand that if we cannot oppose these plans now, tomorrow there will be a formalized in terms of legal law annexation, absorption of Belarus into the Russian Federation.

Pavel Latushka in an interview for Times Radio (United Kingdom) 11.05.2023 You are talking about Ukrainian children being taken to Belarus for permanent residence? Is it against their parent’s wishes? How does it happen? We've prepared the Report "Role of Lukashenko Regime & Union State of Belarus & Russia in Illegal Transfer & Re-education of Ukrainian Children". Illegal transfer of the civilian population from the occupied territories of Ukraine, with the aim to permanently or temporarily displace such persons is in fact war crime. We are talking firstly about orphans and Lukashenko's regime illegally transferring these orphans to the territory of Belarus. It is a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions and a war crime under the Rome Statute. Some may claim the voluntary decision of parents, however, among transferred children, some are orphans, some are social orphans, some are from low-income families, and some have parents Who is organizing the trafficking? Personally, Lukashenko and his regime are organizing the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to the territory of Belarus as well as to the territory of Russia. And it is very important to understand that Lukashenko is organizing the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to the territory of Belarus and Russia under the auspices of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko personally signed resolutions and all financial documents that provide financial support for children's transfer and we have all these documents at our disposal. What is being done to those children? Passports revoked? Russian indoctrination? What are they taught? The regime invites propagandists who tell that Ukraine has an illegitimate government and that Ukraine is part of the Russian world, invites representatives of paramilitary organizations, both Belarusian and Russian, who teach little Ukrainians to believe that Ukraine is a country of Nazism and fascism. Aleksey Talay Belarusian Foundation is also involved in this. This person is very close to Lukashenko. The company Belaruskali is strongly involved, Belaruskali is the main supplier of potassium fertilizers in the world. By the way, a number of European Union countries would like to exclude this company from US and European Union sanctions. But it's unacceptable because we have 100% proof that Belaruskali is financing the deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus. What evidence have you managed to gather? We now have information about three places where Ukrainian children are being held: 2 in the Minsk region and 1 in the Gomel Region in Belarus. As I said, we confirm three places where they are. We know the number of 1,500 children last year, 1,100 this year, transferred to Belarus, we know about the re-education of Ukrainian children, we know all the Belarusian foundations that organize illegal transfers, the ways of transportation of children. We have documents signed by Lukashenko. In particular, organizational and administrative documents, photo and video materials indicating the number of children being transferred, their places of residence, persons responsible for these crimes. What is the process now? Will it be treated as a war crime? We passed this report to the European Parliament and the Council of Europe, we passed it on to the US State Department and to many foreign ministries of European countries. The main thing is that we passed this report to the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. By the way, the Verkhovna Rada even amended its resolution, where it emphasized the role of Lukashenko, just like in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. The next step is to refer the materials to Prosecutor Khan at the International Criminal Court. We believe that Lukashenko is fulfilling his responsibility in The Hague. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Lukashenko and a wide range of high-ranking officials from his regime committed war crimes in the form of the illegal transfer of children from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine to Belarus.

Statement of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus on Countering Threats to the Sovereignty and the Independence of the Republic of Belarus a) Having regard to the statement of the president of the Russian Federation V.Putin on the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, b) recalling the illegality of Alexander Lukashenko's retention of power after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, c) in view of the ongoing aggression of the Russian Federation and the Lukashenko regime against Ukraine, d) noting that the Russian Federation used the territory of the Republic of Belarus for an act of aggression against Ukraine and contrary to the will of the Belarusian people, e) reaffirming the aspirations of the Belarusian people for a nuclear-free status of Belarus expressed in the Declaration on State Sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus of July 27, 1990, in the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus of March 15, 1994, and in the Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with the Republic of Belarus accession to the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of December 5, 1994, (Budapest Memorandum), f) recalling the guarantees of respect for independence, sovereignty, state borders, non-use of force and economic pressure provided to the Republic of Belarus under the Budapest Memorandum, g) having regard to the obligations of the Republic of Belarus under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1 July 1968 including those mentioned in the Budapest Memorandum, namely, to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory, h) reaffirming the international obligations of the Republic of Belarus to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, i) reiterating the previously stated demands of the United Transitional Cabinet to the Russian Federation for the immediate and complete withdrawal of all its troops and military facilities from the territory of Belarus, j) noting the inherent right of Belarusian people to self-defense of the Republic of Belarus under the UN Charter, The United Transitional Cabinet Acknowledges that the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus takes place against the will of the Belarusian people. Declares that the Russian Federation breaches its obligations toward the Republic of Belarus to respect the independence and the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. Declares that the Lukashenka regime and the Russian Federation breach the obligations of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation correspondingly under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Acknowledges that no more guarantees of respect for independence, sovereignty, state borders, non-use of force and economic pressure provided to the Republic of Belarus exist under the Budapest Memorandum. Acknowledges that the Belarusian people have the right to defend their sovereignty and independence by all available means. Declares that any use of force by the Russian Federation against the Belarusian people within the territory of the Republic of Belarus constitutes an act of aggression against the Republic of Belarus under international law. Calls upon the international community, particularly, the European Union, the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Canada, Japan, other states and international organizations whose mandate includes the maintenance of international peace and security, to take all possible measures to help Belarusian people to defend the independence and the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. Warsaw, Vilnius, June 17, 2023

The decision to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus was implemented in accordance with the updated Military Doctrine of the so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus, adopted on November 4, 2021, signed personally by Lukashenko, who is the chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. This decision was announced by Putin, who stressed that Belarus is not a subject for him. Among the measures to "ensure the military security of the Union State," its Military Doctrine specifies that "nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation will remain an important factor in preventing nuclear military conflicts and military conflicts involving conventional means of destruction. It is on the basis of this point that Putin and Lukashenko are taking action to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. This measure is seen by the Russian Federation as necessary to solve the following tasks: 1. Creating a direct nuclear threat, primarily to Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania from the territory of Belarus, and ensuring the security of the territory of the Russian Federation from retaliation in case of the use of these weapons from the territory of Belarus. 2. Preparing to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine after the completion of the deployment of the Russian nuclear forces on the territory of Belarus and the creation of the unified nuclear forces of the Union State. 3. Completion of the process of Belarus' integration into the Union State and ensuring full Russian control over Belarus within the framework of this association by creating a direct basis for the introduction of a significant contingent of Russian troops into the Republic of Belarus under the pretext of protecting nuclear weapons in the event of a mass uprising of Belarusians or other events that threaten Russia with the loss of control over the Republic of Belarus. As Deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, I renew my appeal to Western partners: 1. To take the toughest sanctions measures, including a trade embargo against the regime. 2. By any available means, to ensure the liquidation of Lukashenko's regime, the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus, Belarus' withdrawal from the Union State, CSTO, CIS and other Russian integration projects, and appropriate guarantees of preserving the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. 3. To provide the Belarusian democratic forces, the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and the Belarusian volunteer units in Ukraine with all necessary support to change the situation in Belarus, to secure its liberation from the Lukashenko regime and protection from Russian invaders, and to bring about democratic change thereafter.

Do you know what the situation in Belarus is like? – I ask our European, civilized partners and neighbors. Your neighbor Belarus is being murdered right in front of your eyes. Just imagine that every day, for not even months, but years, you hear screams of violence from the neighboring apartment in the stairwell. Every day your alcoholic neighbor beats his wife half to death. You are uncomfortable hearing these cries, but you do nothing. After all, it's their internal business, it's not your family. And then one night the screaming suddenly stops. There is a deathly silence. Because he, your neighbor, in a drunken rage, has beaten his wife to death. There is no more screaming. But can you sleep well now, knowing that for years right outside your wall a person was brutally beaten and eventually murdered, and you did nothing to stop it? This is exactly what is happening today to your neighboring country – Belarus. This is literally what the Lukashenko regime is doing to the Belarusians. They are still screaming. Their screams are getting quieter every day, but they're still screaming. Are you uncomfortable? Would you like these screams to stop? They will stop. The only question is whether you will do anything to stop the murderer, or whether you’ll just wait for a while until there’s simply no one left to scream from behind the wall into the void.

Speech by H.E. Pavel Latushka, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, at the conference “Responsibility of Lukashenko’s regime for crimes against humanity and migrant crisis: prospects for international justice” 12 June 2023 Vilnius In 2020, the Belarusians came out for democracy, for the European standards that have the key element – respect for the law and responsibility for its violations. In its turn, in Belarus we have the situation when the Lukashenko’s regime has been violating the law each and every day. At the same time there is no justice for the victims. To be more precise, there are neither legal prosecution, nor courts in Belarus. All instruments for justice are outside Belarus, in democratic states. But there is not any example when such instruments have been applied. What are the consequences in the described situation? The Belarusians fell into disbelief in democracy, its principles, and democracy forces. As a result, the key issue now is to start the use of the legal instruments of bringing perpetrators to justice. For example, it could be a warrant for a start. If the Belarusians do not have such, let’s say, “justice in action”, it will be a reasonable conclusion: the democratic institutes are not effective. The National Anti-Crisis Management, which supports the United Transitional Cabinet, is dealing with legal pressure on the regime. This is the question of universal criminal jurisdiction, lobbying for the creation of a special international tribunal for crimes against humanity, using the tools of the Rome Statute of the ICC. Our team prepared a report on the role of Lukashenko and the Union State of Belarus and Russia in the illegal transfer and re-education of Ukrainian children in Belarus. The report consists of two parts – open and closed – and it contains facts, documents, and evidence of Lukashenko's personal responsibility for the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to the territory of Belarus and the organization of the re-education of children. As a new element of these crimes, we discovered the role of the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia in this. Under the auspices of the Union State and with the financial support of this institution, the transfer and re-education of Ukrainian children is taking place. The Belarusians have been waiting for Nürburg for Lukashenko. In 2021, we held the special conference in Nürburg where our team of the National Anti-Crisis Management presented the possible scenarios of how such justice could be carried out. It was symbolic for us and sensitively harmful for the regime. The question of responsibility is the question of the elite division. It is highly important. Not everyone within the Lukashenko’s regime wants to be a criminal. Not everyone wants to commit a crime. An official should have a choice: stay in the system and commit crimes, resign and not commit crimes, or the third option, just not go into the system where you will commit crimes. This will gradually destroy the system. And it will lead to a split in the elites. That's one of our key goals. Criminal prosecution is one of the key elements of splitting the elites.

First: Lukashenko is terribly afraid of the Ukrainian counterattack and strikes against Russian military facilities in Belarus. Note: Putin stated that nuclear weapons would be deployed after July 7-8, that is, on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11-12. While Lukashenko says that nuclear weapons will be in Belarus in 2-3 days. Second: Lukashenko, who says that he will make decisions about the use of nuclear weapons, is trying to prove to the Belarusians, and especially to the nomenklatura, that he is still subject. After all, the question among the nomenclature is already acute – is Lukashenko still alive as a political figure, or is he rather dead. Even the most loyal circles understand that Lukashenko is a Russian puppet. Third: Lukashenko is trying to disavow statements by Putin, Shoigu, and other Russian officials, who have repeatedly stated that Lukashenko will not have any control over nuclear weapons. After all, otherwise they have absolutely no counterarguments to the violation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Even though their justifications do not stand up to criticism. Nevertheless, in this context, it is still very interesting how they will justify themselves for another nuclear standup of Lukashenko this time. Fourth: Unfortunately, the West continues to "monitor the situation" instead of being proactive. Today in the West they monitor Lukashenko's statements – and tomorrow they will monitor the trajectory of the missile? Meanwhile, the West has more than enough arguments and tools for action. Including the resolution of the International Labor Organization adopted on June 12. For our part, given the nuclear threat, we insist on the application of the toughest sanctions against Lukashenko's regime, up to a total trade embargo. We also draw attention to the fact that the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, as well as all other actions of the Lukashenko regime of complicity in the war against Ukraine, is in full compliance with the Military Doctrine of the so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus – which is more than obvious grounds for harmonization of sanctions, on which we have insisted since the first days of the war and which has not yet been implemented. Fifth: We Belarusians must understand that the answer for the use of nuclear weapons will come to where it will be used. Besides, the carriers themselves, those Iskander missiles are not superweapons and they can be easily shot down by air defense forces. And this will obviously happen over the territory of Belarus, because no one will wait for a missile with such a warhead to end up in Ukrainian airspace. And all of this is the terrible risks that the Lukashenko regime poses to all Belarusians without exception and regardless of political position. The nuclear stand-up guy is nervous, less and less in control of himself and his emotions. All these are signs of the approaching denouement. But it is up to us to see if he manages to turn his inevitable finale into a nuclear disaster for Belarus.

Protasevich and Sapieha were released. Can the European aviation community now lift the sanctions on Belavia and resume air traffic, allow Belavia to fly again? After all, one of the requirements of the EU was the release of Protasevich and Sapieha. The key here is that this is only one of the requirements. And the fact of pardoning Protasevich and Sapieha does not cancel the fact of the crime committed. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) concluded in its report that Belarusian officials in May 2021 ordered a deliberately false bomb report to be transmitted on board a Ryanair aircraft. The fact of the crime is obvious and no one in Belarus takes any measures and actions to bring the perpetrators to justice. Moreover, the pardon does not mean the fact that completely far-fetched charges against Protasevich and Sapieha, who were detained without any real legal grounds, that is, on politically motivated charges, were dropped. What lifting of sanctions, even with the release of Protasevich and Sapieha, can we talk about under these conditions? It should be noted that after the illegal landing of a civilian Ryanair aircraft, which posed a threat to flight safety, the European Union closed EU airspace and airports for all Belarusian aircraft. However, the European Council officially imposed sanctions against the same Belavia company much later, on December 2, 2021. The state-owned carrier came under restrictions not because of the case with the Ryanair aircraft, but because of accusations that the airline contributed to the creation of a migrant crisis on the border of Belarus and the EU. And this crisis continues - illegal migrants from the territory of Belarus storm the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia every day. In addition, the current illegitimate authorities cannot ensure flight safety. Moreover, after the start of the war, Russia also fell under air sanctions. And now to lift the sanctions and open air communication with Belarus is to expand air communication with Russia, thereby creating another "hole" in bypassing the sanctions. Citizens of Russia will actively take advantage of this opportunity and fly in transit through Belarus. In a war, I think no one will lift sanctions and thereby pose a threat to the security of citizens of Western countries.

Prepared by the Strategic Analysis Department of the National Anti-Crisis Management Ukrainian language version of the article 🟦🟨 Creation After the collapse of the USSR and the creation of the CIS since 1992, the process of strengthening bilateral relations between Russia and Belarus has been going on within this organization. In accordance with the Treaty on the Formation of the Community of Belarus and Russia of April 2, 1997, it was decided to create a politically and economically integrated community "in order to unite the material and intellectual potential of the two states." The agreement on the formation of the Community of Belarus and Russia provided for the creation of a representative body. On April 29, 1996, in St. Petersburg, the leaders of the parliaments of the two countries signed an agreement on the Parliamentary Assembly. On April 2, 1997, the Treaty on the Union of Belarus and Russia was signed in Moscow. On May 23, 1997, the Charter of the Union of Belarus and Russia was signed. In accordance with the Charter of the Union of Belarus and Russia, in 1997 the Supreme Council and the Executive Committee of the Union of Belarus and Russia were formed. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Community was transformed into the Parliamentary Assembly of the Union of Belarus and Russia. In 1997-1998, the executive bodies of the Union and the general budget were being formed, and the first Union programs were being developed and implemented. The Border and Customs Committees, the Committee on Security Issues were formed. On December 25, 1998, the Declaration on the Further Unity of Belarus and Russia, the Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens, and the Agreement on the Creation of Equal Conditions for Economic Entities were signed. On December 8, 1999, the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State was signed in Moscow, and the Action Program of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation for the implementation of the provisions of the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State was adopted. On January 26, 2000, after the ratification of the Treaty by the parliaments of the two countries, it entered into force. Working bodies of the Union State The supreme body of the Union State is the Supreme State Council of the Union State. It consists of heads of state, heads of government, heads of the chambers of parliaments of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. The meetings of the Supreme State Council are also attended by prime ministers, heads of the chambers of parliaments. The main tasks of the Supreme State Council of the Union State: determines the most important issues of the development of the Union State; forms, within its competence, the bodies of the Union State, including the governing bodies of a sectoral and functional nature; calls elections to the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Union State; approves the budget of the Union State, adopted by the Parliament of the Union State, and annual reports on its execution; approves the international treaties of the Union State ratified by the Parliament; approves the state symbols of the Union State; determines the location of the organs of the Union State; hears the annual report of the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on the implementation of the adopted decisions. The Supreme State Council also performs other functions assigned to its jurisdiction by the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State or transferred to its consideration by the participating states. The Supreme State Council, within the limits of its authority, issues decrees, resolutions and directives. Acts of the Supreme State Council are adopted on the basis of the unanimity of the member states. An act is not adopted if one of the participating states has spoken out against its adoption. Voting at meetings of the Supreme State Council on behalf of the State Party is carried out by the Head of State or a person authorized by him. The Chairman of the Supreme State Council is one of the Heads of State-participants on the basis of rotation, unless they agree otherwise. At present, the functions of the Chairman of the Supreme State Council are performed by A. Lukashenko. He has held this position since 2000. Chairman of the Supreme State Council: organizes the work of the Supreme State Council, chairs its meetings and signs the acts adopted by the Supreme State Council, as well as the laws of the Union State; addresses the Parliament with annual messages on the situation in the Union State and the main directions of its development; on behalf of the Supreme State Council, conducts international negotiations and signs international treaties on behalf of the Union State, represents the Union State in relations with foreign states and international organizations; organizes control over the implementation of this Treaty and decisions made by the Supreme State Council; gives instructions to the Council of Ministers of the Union State within its powers; performs other functions on behalf of the Supreme State Council. Parliamentary Assembly of the Union State of Belarus and Russia On April 2, 1996, the Treaty on the Formation of the Community of Belarus and Russia was signed. In accordance with this document, a decision was made to create a Parliamentary Assembly - a representative body of the Community, which was to be formed on the basis of the principle of equal representation of deputies of the national parliaments of Russia and Belarus. At the meeting of the leaders of the parliaments of Belarus and Russia, which took place on April 29, 1996 in St. Petersburg, the Agreement on the Parliamentary Assembly of the Community was signed. The Parliamentary Assembly was entrusted with the functions of developing draft legislative acts and submitting appropriate proposals to the bodies that have the right to legislative initiative. During the time that has passed since the formation of the Community in April 1996 (since April 1997 - the Union of Belarus and Russia, since December 1999 - the Union State), the deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly have done work that laid the foundations for the formation of the legal system of the Union State. The powers, composition, work procedure of the Parliamentary Assembly are defined in the Rules of Procedure of the Parliamentary Assembly, which was approved on June 13, 1997. The last amendments and additions to the Regulations were made on September 16, 2003. Council of Ministers of the Union State The Council of Ministers is the executive body of the Union State. It includes the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union State, the heads of government of Belarus and Russia, the ministers of foreign affairs, economy and finance of the participating states, the heads of the main sectoral and functional government bodies of the Union State, the State Secretary of the Union State. The Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union State is appointed by the Supreme State Council of the Union State. It may be the head of government of one of the participating States on a rotating basis. The Council of Ministers, in accordance with its competence, determined by this Treaty and decisions of the Supreme State Council: develops the main directions of the general policy on the development of the Union State and submits them to the Supreme State Council for consideration; submits to the Parliament of the Union State drafts of Union laws and Fundamentals of Legislation; ensures control over the implementation of the provisions of the Union Treaty, acts of the Union State and, if necessary, makes motivated submissions to the participating States in case of non-fulfillment of obligations arising from them; develops and submits to the Parliament of the Union State the draft budget of the Union State, ensures the execution of the budget, submits to the Parliament annual and semi-annual reports on the execution of the budget; ensures the creation and development of a single economic space, the implementation of a single financial, tax, credit, monetary, currency, price and trade policy; contributes to the implementation of a coordinated policy of the participating states in international affairs, in the field of defense, security, ensuring the rule of law, the rights and freedoms of citizens, ensuring public order and combating crime, as well as in the field of culture, science, education, healthcare, social security and protection environment; Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Union State: manages the activities of the Council of Ministers and organizes its work; submits to the Supreme State Council and the Parliament of the Union State annual reports on the activities of the Council of Ministers; signs acts of the Council of Ministers; on behalf of the Supreme State Council and within the powers granted to them, conducts negotiations and signs international treaties on behalf of the Union State. Standing Committee of the Union State The Standing Committee of the Union State is the working apparatus of the Supreme State Council of the Union State and the Council of Ministers of the Union State. Formed in accordance with the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State and the Resolution of the Supreme State Council of the Union State dated June 27, 2000 No. 13. In its activities, the Standing Committee is guided by the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State, which was signed on December 8, 1999 by the presidents of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, as well as the Action Program for the implementation of the provisions of the Treaty, the Statute of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, the Regulations on the Council of Ministers of the Union State, and other regulatory-legal acts, national legislations of the participating states. The Standing Committee organizes the implementation of the provisions of the Treaty, the development of proposals for the development strategy of the Union State, and coordinates the work of sectoral and functional bodies of the Union State. Together with the relevant bodies of the member states of the Union State, it carries out a preliminary review of the programs, projects and activities of the Union State, submits conclusions on them to the Council of Ministers and informs it of the progress of their implementation. Prepares for the Council of Ministers of the Union State proposals on draft laws of the Union State, on the unification of the laws of the participating states. Forms and submits for consideration by the Supreme State Council and the Council of Ministers draft agendas of their meetings, work plans. The Standing Committee ensures the interaction of the Council of Ministers of the Union State with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Union of Belarus and Russia. The work of the Standing Committee is directed by the Secretary of State of the Union State, and the Standing Committee also includes four members of the Standing Committee, who are his deputies ex officio. Two members of the Standing Committee represent the Belarusian side, two members represent the Russian side. The Standing Committee is accountable to the Council of Ministers. The Union State as the Basis for Russia's Integration Projects – Содружество независимых государств (СНГ) – Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности (ОДКБ) – Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – Евразийский экономический союз (ЕАЭС) – Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – Союзное государство – Union State This scheme clearly shows that Belarus is a key element of Russian integration associations. Thus, it is the Union State that is the association that makes Russia an empire. If the Russian Federation does not have the opportunity to keep its closest “ally” – Lukashenka’s Belarus – in its sphere of influence, then all other integration associations will begin to collapse in an accelerated mode. Only the fear and apprehensions of the majority of the countries participating in the CSTO and the EAEU are holding them back from starting the process of withdrawing from such associations. Thus, the deconstruction of Russia as an empire can begin with the very first and ideologically key Union - the so-called Union State. The Union State is an association that preaches the ideology of rashism, which can be observed in the general information space, narratives, as well as in the concrete example of the re-education of Ukrainian children illegally taken out of the occupied territories. Russia, with the support of the Lukashenka regime, planned to spread the ideology of rashism to occupied Ukraine if the so-called “special-military operation” succeeded. Taking into account how the system of functioning of the Union State, which is described above, is built, it can be stated that the state bodies of the Lukashenka regime are quite widely involved in the processes associated with both the surrender of the sovereignty of Belarus and aggressive actions against Ukraine. All actions related to the war against Ukraine are carried out within the framework of the functioning of the Union State. The role of the Union State in the preparation and aggression against Ukraine On November 4, 2021, the Supreme State Council of the Union State adopted the Military Doctrine of the Union State. It is important to note that the legal basis of the Military Doctrine was: the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State of December 8, 1999, the Security Concept of the Union of Belarus and Russia of April 28, 1999, the Treaty between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation on military cooperation of December 19, 1997, the provisions of the Charter of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (hereinafter referred to as the CSTO), international obligations of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation in the military sphere. A month after the adoption of the Military Doctrine of the Union State, in December 2021, Putin and Lukashenko decided to conduct joint exercises “Union Resolve-2022”. On January 18, 2022, at a briefing for foreign military attachés, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexander Fomin said that the objectives of the exercises were to conduct an unscheduled inspection of troops and develop various options for joint actions to neutralize threats and stabilize the situation on the borders of the Union State. It was under the cover of these exercises that 4 days after they ended, an invasion into the territory of Ukraine from the territory of the Union State took place. Despite the fact that the plans of Putin and Lukashenko to "take Kiev in 3 days" failed, they did not abandon the main goal - the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and its inclusion in the future in the Union State. Further actions of Lukashenka on complicity in aggression against Ukraine were implemented within the framework of the military doctrine of the Union State. For example, among the foundations of the military policy of the Union State, the following areas are indicated: coordination of plans for research and development work, production, supply of weapons, military and special equipment for the armed forces of the participating states, as well as joint fundamental and applied research in the field of creating the latest military technologies, advanced models of weapons, military and special equipment; development and deepening of industrial and scientific and technical ties between enterprises of the participating states in the field of development, production and supply of products, provision of military services, as well as in the supply of materials, samples, components, training and auxiliary equipment necessary for this; joint training of military personnel; expansion of cooperation with international organizations and other states; development of military and military-technical cooperation with the CSTO member states. Thus, the transfer of military equipment and ammunition by Belarus to Russia, the training of Russian conscripts, the expansion of cooperation in the military-industrial complex with Russia's allies also took place within the framework of the Union State. So, on October 10, 2022, Lukashenka announced the creation of a Regional Group of Forces (RGF) based on the Belarusian armed forces. In accordance with military doctrine, during a period of growing military threat (a period of direct threat of aggression), the Joint Command of the RGF is formed, which, in accordance with the evolving situation, refines the decisions made (developed plans) and manages the RGF. The deployment of the RGF is carried out during a period of growing military threat (the period of an immediate threat of aggression) by decision of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. The RGF can be used both independently and jointly with groupings of national armed forces, other troops and military formations. Separately, it is worth noting that among the measures to ensure the military security of the Union State, its military doctrine indicates that “nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation will remain an important factor in preventing the emergence of nuclear military conflicts and military conflicts using conventional weapons.” It is on the basis of this paragraph that Lukashenka is taking steps to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, which he considers to be a guarantee of personal security. It can be stated that with the development of the successes of the Ukrainian army on the fronts, the dictator returned to nuclear blackmail both in relation to Ukraine and NATO countries. Conclusion Belarus under the leadership of Lukashenka is a direct threat to at least 4 European countries (Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) as long as it is in the sphere of influence of Russia and the military alliances founded by Russia. In this regard, the priority task is the deconstruction of Russian integration associations both at the base level of the Union State and at subsequent levels emanating from the base levels - the EAEU, the CSTO, the CIS. For this, it is critically important to create conditions in order to tear Belarus away from the Russian center of influence and attraction, which means making the Union State project as toxic as possible. Accession to the EU and NATO should become the strategic goal of the democratic forces of Belarus. But as an intermediate stage in achieving this goal, one can consider the prospect of Belarus joining the Lublin Triangle format, and turning it into a “Square”. This equal association, because, as we know, all sides are equal in a square, can become the alternative that will allow us to begin the deconstruction of the Union State, and hence the imperial essence of Russia.