Artsiom Brukhan, Audra Plepyte, and Pavel Latushka. Vilnius, Lithuania, 2025. Photo: NAM Media "We presented our vision for the further strategy of applying sanctions pressure on the Lukashenka regime, including the need to introduce additional legal grounds within the EU related to the regime’s hybrid aggression against neighboring states", noted Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of NAM, following his meeting with the Lithuanian Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Audra Plepyte. The meeting was also attended by Artsiom Brukhan, Speaker of the Coordination Council. During the meeting, Pavel Latushka provided the Lithuanian side with detailed information on the ongoing work carried out by NAM regarding the criminal prosecution of representatives of the regime within the framework of the International Criminal Court, assisting in the consideration of the relevant submission made by the Government of Lithuania to the ICC on the basis of evidence of crimes against humanity committed by representatives of the Lukashenka regime. Separately, Pavel Latushka informed the Lithuanian side about the work on collecting evidence for the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, and he also expressed support for Lithuania’s actions in submitting an application to the International Court of Justice against Belarus for organizing and encouraging the illegal transfer of migrants across their shared border. The sides also discussed support for NAM’s legal initiative concerning the possible use of OSCE instruments. In discussing the reopening of Belarusian-Lithuanian border crossings, Pavel Latushka emphasized the importance of keeping the border open to preserve the possibility for Belarusians to travel to the European Union and to maintain people-to-people contacts between Belarusians and EU countries, noting that such a right would not be available to Lukashenka or to representatives of his regime who are on EU sanctions lists. During the meeting, both sides also emphasized the importance of continuing pressure on the Lukashenka regime for its ongoing internal repressions in Belarus.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. Continuing the consultations that took place on October 20 at the Federal Chancellor’s Office and the German Foreign Ministry, the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Pavel Latushka, held a meeting with the German Ambassador to Poland, Miguel Berger. During the meeting, Pavel Latushka presented the position of the United Transitional Cabinet in the context of Lukashenko’s statements about his desire to conclude a "big deal" with the United States and the European Union. Pavel Latushka emphasized that no so-called "deals" with Lukashenko can be made until he undertakes real domestic political changes in the interests of Belarusian society. Separately, the Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management informed the German Ambassador about activities aimed at holding Lukashenko and his allies accountable for the act of aggression against Ukraine, for the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children, and for crimes against humanity against the Belarusian people. The meeting also discussed Germany’s support for Belarusian democratic forces within the OSCE, as part of the Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus in the OSCE.  It was noted that the German Permanent Representation to the OSCE is one of the two members of the secretariat of this group. Additionally, Pavel Latushka presented information with evidence and facts on transboundary repressions against Belarusians living abroad , taking into account the working group on transnational crimes and repressions established at the German Foreign Ministry. Pavel Latushka continues consultations with representatives of European Union member states. Meetings have already taken place with representatives of the Foreign Ministries and ambassadors of France, Germany, Sweden, Cyprus, and Latvia. A meeting with the Ambassador of Denmark, the country currently holding the EU presidency, is planned in the near future.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. Not long ago, the dictator said a phrase that might have seemed harmless if not for its deeper meaning: "I have always asked one thing from you — give me the economy. Give me bridges, roads, milk, meat, and so on. And the military matters — leave them to me, security is my concern, I will deal with it". It sounds almost like an order. "Give me"  is not a request but a demand, addressed not to subordinate ministries, but to an entire nation. The people are the suppliers; the regime is the consumer. In this rhetoric one hears an old occupation motif: the authorities demand, the population must obey. And what does the dictator offer the people of Belarus in return for these "bridges, roads, milk and meat" ? Does he propose an increase in social benefits, a reduction of taxes and utility payments, including housing and communal services? Source photo: people.onliner.by No — quite the opposite. Social guarantees are shrinking, taxes and utility payments are rising. Lukashenko has reached such a level of cynicism toward the people of the country that in the draft law on the national budget for 2026 he included an amount of revenue from fines that is 27% higher  than this year. He plans to fine Belarusians 310.3 million rubles . The dictator has already assumed that next year every residentб from newborns to pensioners, will inevitably violate something and pay, on average, 34 rubles  in fines. The regime lives at the expense of the population, and the population is obligated to  "give"  — to work, endure, remain silent. Everything else is a “security matter” that people should not interfere with. Fear replaces law, and obedience replaces freedom and dignity. "Give me the economy",  Lukashenko says — and this is not an economic slogan, but an admission of the regime’s essence: the people exist to feed his power.

Theses of the speech by the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Pavel Latushka, at the Belarusian-Ukrainian Ostrogski Forum in Kyiv Short version This is my first time participating in the Ostrogski Forum; thank you very much for giving me such an opportunity. Today I speak on behalf of the United Transitional Cabinet, my team, and the group of experts, the National Anti-Crisis Management, which primarily deals with issues of legal prosecution of the Lukashenko regime. Also as the leader of the largest faction in the Coordination Council, which received the greatest number of votes in the last direct elections. Dear participants of the Forum! Ladies and gentlemen! I would like to begin with a question: is Belarus at war? I will answer, unfortunately, in the affirmative. Belarus is in a double war — the war of the Lukashenko regime against Ukraine, and his war against Belarusians. Belarus is not an enemy of Ukraine. The Lukashenko regime is. But it is important that our discussion is also not built on illusions. And therefore I suggest we begin with an honest answer to the question: Who is Alexander Lukashenko?He is an enemy of Belarus, of Belarusians, and of Ukraine — our common enemy. We must abandon the illusion that Lukashenko is a "hostage of the Kremlin". This is a dangerous self-deception. Lukashenko is an enemy. And an enemy must be defeated. Another illusion: that Lukashenko “should not be irritated.”But the "bear", Russia, already used Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine in 2022. Lukashenko is not a bear. He is the bear’s henchman — and he is weak. He is weak because he lacks public support, is vulnerable to sanctions, and his power is constantly threatened. To defeat Lukashenko means to change the political situation in Belarus. And this fully corresponds to Ukraine’s interests, because: a democratic Belarus will never pose a threat to Ukraine. How to achieve this? Support Belarus’s allies  — political institutions that are a real alternative to the regime: the United Transitional Cabinet and the elected Coordination Council. We have always supported Ukraine — sanctions, harmonization of sanctions, accountability of Lukashenko. I initiated in PACE an amendment about Lukashenko’s responsibility for the act of aggression  — providing Belarusian territory for aggression. We are launching a project to document the crime of aggression committed by the top military-political leadership of the Lukashenko regime  for use in the Special Tribunal. Our team submitted materials to the ICC on illegal deportation and indoctrination of Ukrainian children in Belarus — a war crime. Lithuania has already submitted to the ICC a case regarding crimes against humanity  in Belarus. Ukraine has every legal basis to support this. We appeal to the Government of Ukraine to support Belarusian democratic forces and Lithuania — and thus strike our common enemy. Next: economic sanctions  — a critical tool. Sanctions against Lukashenko must be harmonized with sanctions against Russia. Pressure must continue and intensify. Everything listed creates conditions for political change in Belarus — and therefore for removing the military threat that Belarus poses today. Lukashenko is actively preparing Belarus for war , including:– integration of over 500 Belarusian enterprises into the Russian military-industrial complex ,– modernization of infrastructure for deployment of Russian forces,– legalizing aggression and "pre-emptive strikes" , – creation of a 150,000-strong militia  and expansion of the army,– mass repression : elimination of media and NGOs, 1,200 political prisoners, 600,000 Belarusians forced to flee. Not counteracting this is a strategic mistake. Our struggle to dismantle the regime is a direct precondition for peace. Ukraine’s sustainable security is impossible without resolving the internal Belarusian crisis. Will Lukashenko change his policy? No. Therefore, international isolation and sanctions pressure must be maintained and strengthened. The alternative is capitulation  to Lukashenko. Only a democratic, European, demilitarized Belarus can be a reliable strategic partner for Ukraine.The Lukashenko regime never will. Lukashenko is an enemy of Ukraine. Belarus is a potential ally and guarantor of security. Zelensky said:"At some point, a boundary will emerge between war and peace… the Ukrainian eastern border, the Belarusian eastern border, the eastern borders of the Baltic states, and the eastern border of Finland — this is the strongest security border for all of us in Europe". Thank you for your attention. Long live Belarus! Glory to Ukraine!

Pavel Latushka with Adam Krzywosąd, Deputy Director of the Department of Global Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland. Warsaw, Poland, 2025. Photo: NAM-Media "The regime in Belarus has absolutely no political will to change its repressive policies". noted Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet and Head of the NAM, Pavel Latushka, during a meeting with Adam Krzywosąd, Deputy Director of the Department of Global Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland. "The third Universal Periodic Review  presented on November 3 in Geneva within the UN Human Rights Council, which addressed the human rights situation in Belarus, and the lack of response from the Lukashenko regime to more than 220 international recommendations on policy changes in the field of human rights, as well as the withdrawal from a number of international human rights treaties, indicate the regime’s desire only to continue and intensify repression ", emphasized Pavel Latushka. During the meetings, Pavel Latushka paid particular attention to the issue of extraterritorial persecution of Belarusians residing in Poland . Issues of cooperation with Poland within the Group of Friends of Democratic Belarus at the OSCE  were discussed separately. The meeting included a detailed analysis and presentation of positions regarding the possible use of international legal accountability mechanisms  for human rights violations in Belarus and transnational crimes against Belarusians abroad . Pavel Latushka also provided information about the proactive persecution by the regime of Belarusian democratic activists abroad . A representative of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that Poland would support Belarusian civil society  in matters of protecting and restoring human rights and would assist in collecting evidence of illegal actions  committed against Belarusians. "The fact that Poland is one of the leading allies of the democratic forces of Belarus in human rights matters is an important signal of support  in our work on the use of international mechanisms and instruments to achieve justice for victims of unprecedented repression committed by the Lukashenko regime, both in Belarus and abroad", emphasized Pavel Latushka.

Pavel Latushka and the Special Envoy of the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Ukraine’s Reconstruction, Juris Poikāns. Warsaw, Poland, 2025. Photo: NAM-media. The importance of strategic support for Ukraine, which is fighting not only for its own future but also for the democratic future of the entire region of Europe, was emphasized during the meeting between the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet, Head of NAM Pavel Latushka, and the Special Envoy of the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Ukraine’s Reconstruction, Juris Poikāns. During the meeting, Juris Poikāns informed about the efforts of Latvia and other European Union countries aimed at rebuilding Ukraine, primarily in the energy sector. In turn, Pavel Latushka informed the representative of the Latvian MFA about the large-scale repressions in Belarus and about the importance of continuing the policy of pressure on Lukashenko’s regime, which is not stopping its internal repressions and external aggressive policies. "The dictator must continue to be made aware of the EU’s unified and firm position regarding the absence of any prospects for reducing sanctions pressure without real steps toward resolving the profound domestic political crisis in Belarus", noted Pavel Latushka. In the near future, meetings are planned between Pavel Latushka and the special representatives of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Latvia and Estonia responsible for cooperation with Belarusian democratic forces, as well as with the Ambassador of Denmark, the country currently holding the EU presidency. These meetings are a continuation of the consultations that Pavel Latushka held with representatives of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of France, Germany, Sweden, as well as Cyprus, which will assume the EU presidency on 1 January 2026, and with representatives of the European External Action Service.

Illustrative photo The US has decided to suspend sanctions against three state-private aircraft belonging to Lukashenko as well as to exclude one personal aircraft of the dictator and the Belavia airline from the sanctions lists. The lifting of sanctions on Lukashenko's state-private aircraft and Belavia is only an isolated example, and not a significant weakening of sanctions pressure. Belavia is one of many entities that have fallen under US restrictions. Its exclusion from the sanctions list does not reduce the great potential for pressure  at Washington’s disposal. Almost a hundred Belarusian legal entities and hundreds of individuals are under US sanctions.  The US sanctions packages include enterprises  from sectors that are key to the regime : Financial sector; Logistics and transport; Mechanical engineering; IT and high technologies; Metallurgy; Woodworking; Oil and gas complex; Civil aviation; Fertilizers; Chemical industry; Cement industry and construction; Tobacco and light industry; Military-industrial complex; State bodies and law enforcement agencies; Sport and public organizations. Among them are system-forming giants : Naftan, Belneftekhim concern, Grodno Azot, Belaruskali, BelAZ, Belvnesheconombank, Belinvestbank, Slavkali, Belshina, Bank Dabrabyt, Bank Trade Capital, BMZ, MZKT, Minsk Automobile Plant, Amkodor. These are not just companies; they are the basis of the country's export revenues and currency liquidity . Their presence under sanctions means that the US retains a powerful instrument of pressure , more significant than the restrictions on the dictator's state-private aircraft and the national air carrier. The "Sword of Damocles" of sanctions continues to hang over Lukashenko. The US still has at its disposal a whole range of powerful levers of pressure on Lukashenko. It is important for the Cabinet, and we uphold this position, that these tools are applied consistently and strategically , so that the “Sword of Damocles” of American sanctions remains over the regime until Lukashenko meets the key conditions for their removal — including those that the democratic forces have already conveyed to American partners. This refers to the unconditional release of all political prisoners , as demanded by US President Donald Trump, the complete cessation of political repression , the decriminalization of socio-political life in Belarus , and the cessation of extraterritorial persecution of Belarusians abroad . Until these demands are met, it is important for us that the pressure on the dictator is not only maintained but is also considered a guarantee  that the regime will move from imitation of changes to real steps . The 'Golden Sanctions Share' is in the EU's hands It should be emphasized: the measures of pressure most tangible for the regime  — the 'Golden Sanctions Share'  — are in the hands of the EU. As long as the regime does not change its internal repressive policy  — does not stop political violence and does not begin a real dialogue with society — Lukashenko should not count on the lifting of European sanctions  — we convey this to our European partners. While welcoming the actions of the US regarding the release of political prisoners, it is important that the EU adheres to a principled position  on the issue of lifting sanctions. In our opinion, at the moment, a strategy of two forces and directions  should be applied towards the regime: Use US sanctions  to ensure the release of all political prisoners and the cessation of repression; EU sanctions  to compel the regime to implement systemic changes  in its domestic and foreign policy. I welcome the decision of US President Donald Trump to nominate John Coale  for the position of US Special Envoy for Belarus . I hope that the US, using its global leadership and sanctions leverage , will be able to assist in the release of all political prisoners in Belarus without exception , and will support the Belarusian democratic forces in resolving the deep internal political crisis  in the country. Belarusian Legal Entities Remaining Under US Sanctions (SDN List) Finance and Banks JSC Belvnesheconombank JSC Bank Dabrabyt  CJSC Trade Bank Capital JSC Sberbank CJSC VTB Bank JSC Belinvestbank LLC Belinvest-Engineering CJSC BelBusinessLeasing Logistics, Transport, and Services LLC Ulate Logistic LLC Ruzekspeditsiya LLC Bremino Group RUE Beltamozhservice LLC Belkaztrans State Enterprise Tsentrkurort LLC Sohra Fertilizers JSC Grodno Azot JSC Belaruskali  JSC Belarusian Potash Company JLLC Slavkali Oil and Gas Sector CJA BELNEFTEGAZ  Concern Belneftekhim  JSC Naftan UE Belarusian Oil Trade House  UE Oil Bitumen Plant CJSC New Oil Company CJSC Energo-Oil LLC Interservice Chemical Industry JSC Belshina  JSC Polotsk-Steklovolokno JSC Lakokraska  JSC Belarusgumatekhnika Woodworking Concern BELLESBUMPROM Metallurgy JSC Belarusian Steel Works CJA Discoms Cement Industry and Construction RUE Holding Belarusian Cement Company  JLLC Dana Astra LLC Dubai Water Front LLC Belinte-Roba LLC Emirates Blue Sky  Mechanical Engineering and Equipment Manufacturing JSC BelAZ — Management Company of the BelAZ-Holding Holding JSC MZKT  JSC Minsk Automobile Plant JSC Amkodor JSC Agat — Control Systems  JSC Agat — Electromechanical Plant JSC Planar  JSC Tekhnika Svyazi JSC Legmash Plant JSC StankoGomel  LLC Mot UPNPP Tekhnolit  IT and High Technologies LLC Synesis  LLC KB Unmanned Helicopters JSC Scientific-Research Institute of Electronic Computing Machines LLC KB Unmanned Helicopters Additive Technologies Laboratory LLC KB Unmanned Helicopters InaTech Solutions  BSVT New Technologies  LLC 24X7 Panoptes

Lukashenko during the ceremony opening the bridge over the Pripyat River. Mozyr, November 6, 2025. Source: president.gov.by On November 6 in Mozyr, during the ceremony opening the renovated bridge over the Pripyat River, Lukashenko said a phrase that could have seemed harmless, if not for its full context: "I have always asked one thing from you — give me the economy. Give me bridges, roads, milk, meat, and so on. And military matters — those are my responsibilities, security — my responsibility, I will handle them". It sounds almost like an order. "Give me"  is not a request but a demand, addressed not to subordinate ministries, but to the entire nation. The people — the suppliers; the ruler — the consumer. In this rhetoric, one can hear an old occupational motif: the authorities demand, and the population must comply. Hearing such a demand from a dictator, "Give me" , immediately recalls stories and films from World War II, when German soldiers entering Belarusian villages said almost the same — only without political disguise. "Eggs, milk, meat, bread"  — they demanded from the peasants. There was no request, only an order. Back then, under the occupiers, this was called requisition; now, under Lukashenko — it is called "supporting the economy". Yes, the Belarusian economy under the "economist" Lukashenko, to put it mildly, is not gaining momentum, and is rather slowing down. The industrial sector, once the pride of Belarus and the engine of GDP, has today become the main brake on the economy: industrial output in current prices for the first nine months of this year fell by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Agricultural production fell by 1% compared to the same period last year. The trade deficit in goods for January–September reached $4.5 billion. The month before, imports exceeded exports by $3.8 billion. Belarus is buying more and selling less. And Lukashenko is desperately short of money to maintain his seized power. That is why his rhetoric becomes increasingly arrogant and demanding — "Give me". And what, in return, does the dictator offer the people of Belarus for "bridges, roads, milk, and meat" ? Does he offer increased social benefits, lower taxes, or reduced utility bills? No — quite the opposite. Social guarantees are shrinking, while taxes and utility payments are rising. Lukashenko has reached such a level of cynicism toward the population that in the draft law on the 2026 state budget, he included fines collection 27% higher than this year. He plans to fine Belarusians for a total of 310.3 million rubles. Think about it! The dictator has already planned that next year every resident, from newborns to pensioners and people with disabilities — according to his statistics, Belarus has 9.1 million residents — will inevitably violate some rule and pay a fine averaging 34 rubles. Effectively, Lukashenko is budgeting planned punishment for citizens. At the same time, spending on security forces — Ministry of Internal Affairs, KGB, courts — is growing. In other words, the state spends less on people and more on controlling them. Today’s regime in Belarus operates on the same principle as the occupiers during the war. Only Belarus was never attacked, and no one plans to, yet Lukashenko persistently transmits and instills fear. Security rhetoric becomes central. It turns every complaint into a threat, every citizen into a suspect. Under the slogan "I am responsible for security", Lukashenko justifies growing spending on the security apparatus and pressure on society. Belarus has been turned into an internal occupation zone. The regime lives off the population, and the population is obliged to "give" — work, endure, remain silent. Everything else is a "security matter"  into which one should not interfere. Just like during the occupation years, fear replaces law, and obedience replaces freedom and dignity. Dictatorship is always built on the dependence of the population. It creates nothing — it consumes. Its "economy"  is based not on creation, but on coercion. It demands loyalty instead of initiative, obedience instead of trust. "Give me the economy",  says Lukashenko, and this is not an economic slogan, but an admission of the essence of the regime: the people exist to feed his power. Remember, in October 2020, a general strike was planned. At the checkpoint of the Grodno Azot plant, riot police and OMON were stationed. People were forced to work, with shouts behind them: "Go to work, you are our food base". This phrase, like the dictator’s statement about "give me the economy",  is not a slip of the tongue but a program. It communicates the idea that only Lukashenko can make decisions, and everyone else must provide. This creates psychological dependence in society, when people get used to thinking that initiative is dangerous, and independence is punishable. When Lukashenko demonstratively places himself above the people, dividing them: "You build, I command",  — he turns the country into his personal garrison. And just as occupiers once took the peasants’ last possessions under the pretext of war, today the dictatorship sucks out the country’s strength, money, and future, justifying it as “security.” The only difference is that occupiers left, while dictators do not. They remain until the people stop "giving"  and demand their right to life, work, and their country back. We often think that liberation begins with elections or democratic slogans. But it begins with refusing to give by command. With the realization that "the economy"  is not power, but people, their energy, labor, and initiative. As long as the population is perceived as a food base for the regime, no reforms are possible. Internal occupation ends when society stops being an object and becomes a subject — when Belarusians say: "Enough of giving. It’s time to claim what is ours".

Illustrative photo Lukashenko is sinking the economy to stay afloat. Once again, Lukashenko is driving Belarus’s economy to the brink of disaster. The regime habitually calls this growth and stability, but behind the polished numbers lies a systemic collapse . Industry, once the pride of the country, is drowning in losses, exports are falling, and the ruble is losing stability. All of this is the result of Lukashenko’s personal ambitions and greed , along with his inner circle, who have turned the country’s economy into a hostage of their regime. Over thirty years, Lukashenko has not built a sustainable economic model — he has built a system of personal control . In it, any enterprise, from BelAZ to a small dairy plant in a district center, operates not by market rules but by a call from above . Lukashenko has convinced himself — and tries to convince literally everyone else — that he can manage the entire country like a state farm: whom to punish, whom to forgive debts, whom to give credit under "state interests". The result is predictable. The industrial complex, once the pride of Belarus and the locomotive of GDP, has become the main brake on the economy . According to the Eurasian Development Bank, industrial production in 2025 fell by 1%, despite the state pouring billions into the sector. Lukashenko, out of habit, demands an increase in production. But this is like trying to make a rusty engine run at maximum speed: without a major overhaul, it will burn out faster . Enterprises are forced to take new loans to pay salaries, creating the illusion of growth, while actually operating at a loss  and increasing their debt burden. Official statistics, though seemingly encouraging — reporting GDP growth of 1.6% , investments up 15% , and retail turnover up 8%  — have no real substance. By highlighting isolated indicators detached from the broader economic system, the regime attempts to mislead the public . Investment growth is driven by state money and loans guaranteed by the same officials reporting their so-called successes.  Private investment has disappeared, foreign investment is under sanctions. This is not development, but a simulation of movement , where the economy runs in place just to show that the engine has not stalled. Exports are falling, imports are rising. In just January–September, the trade deficit reached $4.5 billion , one and a half times higher than last year. Belarus buys more and sells less — and what it does sell is mostly to Russia, which is now looking for ways to offload its surpluses. While enterprises drown in debt, the dictator has long moved his assets abroad . Through structures connected to his inner circle, money flows to the UAE, Russia, and other hidden corners. Lukashenko keeps the entire country’s economy in a state of constant dependency  — on loans, on Russia, on fear. A dependent economy means dependent people . Any attempt at reform or privatization threatens him personally: it would destroy the system of manual control  on which the illegitimate regime rests. That is why Lukashenko will not allow real changes. He prefers to issue new loans to enterprises  so they can pay salaries and show growth — even if only on paper. And these loans are, in essence, paid from thin air  — through the printing press of the National Bank. In two years, the volume of government securities on the National Bank’s balance sheet has increased tenfold. Essentially, the government covers the budget deficit and finances state enterprises with money created not by the economy, but out of thin air — by a bureaucrat’s signature.  This is deferred inflation , which will sooner or later hit citizens’ pockets. Today, the Belarusian economy is a soap bubble , inflated by fear and debt. Wage growth is not supported by productivity, and budget expenditures are covered through debt and money printing. Meanwhile, both external and internal debt burdens grow. Only the debt to Russia for the construction of the nuclear power plant amounts to $10 billion . On paper, people earn more, but they can buy less. The ruble is losing real value, prices are rising, and enterprises operate at a loss. The International Monetary Fund  and the World Bank  have already downgraded Belarus’s forecasts: in 2025, GDP growth will not exceed 1.9% , and in 2026 it will barely reach 1.3% . This is not development — it is the creeping decay of the economy. Lukashenko himself admits that "the main problem is market access ", yet he stubbornly does not see that the market is not just geography — it is trust . And trust cannot be restored by decrees. It cannot be restored while the country is run through fear, not rules . While the economy is subordinated to the ambitions of one man, it has no future. Belarus does not need a supervisory leader . It needs someone who will allow people to work and earn according to the rules, not by command.  But Lukashenko cannot allow this — for then the foundation of his power would collapse. That is why, even if the figures in the reports are still rising, the system itself is already rotting from within.  And when the next bubble bursts, along with it will vanish the myth of Lukashenko-style stability.

Illustrative photo Beneath Lukashenko’s rhetoric about peace at the Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security lies the systematic militarization of the country, managed fear, and an attempt to consolidate power amid internal weakness. Lukashenko spoke there about his commitment to peace, claiming that Belarus has always supported dialogue. Yet alongside his speech, we observe a different reality: Armed forces brought to highest combat readiness  by the dictator’s order on October 11 this year; Mass inspections of alert systems  across the country (almost weekly in different regions), as well as emergency exercises at enterprises with military significance  (at Horizon in Minsk and at the Casting and Standards Plant in Gomel), and large-scale exercises near Borisov in October, where scenarios included industrial fire suppression, railway accident response, and clearing debris from residential buildings; Call-ups and mass fingerprinting of military conscripts ; Periodic exercises of territorial defense units  (for example, in September in Oktyabrsky District of Minsk and Molodechno District of Minsk Region); Internet block testing  (temporary blocking of VKontakte) and intelligence reports about mythical "liberation armies". A third of all state programs for the next five years are related to national security  (8 out of 28). Of these, four are so-called "special programs", the content of which is secret. They are supervised by the KGB, Ministry of Defense, the Academy of Sciences, and the State Military-Industrial Committee. When a state talks about peace but prepares for war, we have the right to ask: for whom and why is this fear needed? Connecting recent events, a clear picture emerges: Belarus is systematically undergoing a practical test of its mobilization system : Military exercises practice large-scale conflict scenarios ; Reservists and territorial defense units undergo training mobilizations ; Communication, transport, and civil defense systems are activated ; The Ministry of Emergency Situations synchronizes its exercises with the military. These are not merely exercises. This is a dress rehearsal for a crisis  — a crisis that the authorities themselves could provoke, under the guise of protection rhetoric. Lukashenko is building a new ideological construct: " Eurasian security "  vs. " Western chaos ". This scheme is convenient: it creates the illusion of choice — as if Belarus must side either with the “global majority” or the "decaying West". Yet pragmatically, Belarus today is not a subject of this system, but a dependent object of the Kremlin’s military and political adventures.  Deploying nuclear weapons under the guise of a "defensive measure" is not a security gesture, but one of subordination. When Lukashenko says: "We don’t need Europe, neither Paris nor Warsaw",  he is effectively admitting that Belarus is isolated. And it is not the West that isolated us — the regime itself has enclosed the country in a circuit of fear. Let us briefly examine four points from Lukashenko’s conference speech: First — prohibition of sanctions on food and medicine.  It sounds humane, but it is an attempt to legitimize sanctions circumvention under a humanitarian pretext.  To date, the West does not impose and has never imposed sanctions on food and medicine — this is false. Even when sanctions affect human interests, as with dual-use goods, these were imposed by the EU and the US because the Lukashenko regime and Russia actively use these goods for military purposes. Second — protection of critical infrastructure  (oil and gas pipelines, nuclear power plants). But who for years risked Belarus’s energy security? Who blackmailed the West with a gas pipeline? Who creates emergencies at Ukrainian nuclear plants?  These are the same people now lecturing us about infrastructure inviolability. Third — migration.  The rhetoric is predictable: "The West destroyed the Middle East — now it must deal with it".  But it was Lukashenko himself in 2021 who used migration flows as a tool to pressure Europe.  Today, the illegitimate authority tries to present itself as a victim. This is not policy — it is a simulation of responsibility. Fourth — artificial intelligence.  For the first time, the topic of the future is raised. But in the hands of an illegitimate government that blocks the internet, closes social networks, and bans independent media, talk of AI threats is fear of uncontrolled new technologies. Lukashenko speaks of the " principle of indivisible security ", yet in reality, Belarus itself has abandoned this principle, becoming a launchpad for foreign wars.  When nuclear weapons are deployed on our territory, and Lukashenko assures that they are "not targeted at anyone",  it inspires neither the trust of neighbors nor that of citizens. The dictator Lukashenko builds a model where fear is the main resource of governance:  fear of the West, fear of war, fear of internal enemies. This fear is fueled by daily alerts — sirens, inspections, notifications of "threats". Yet behind each such drill is a distraction from real problems:  rising prices, falling incomes, emigration of specialists, loss of investments. Our position differs from Lukashenko’s not in slogans against war, but in realism. We do not need the illusion of temporary non-involvement in war under Russian tutelage. We need real neutrality , based on trust with neighbors and transparent actions. Belarus could be a platform for genuine dialogue, not for propagandist forums. If the current logic persists, Belarus risks becoming not a guarantor of peace, but a hostage of someone else’s war.  And the longer Lukashenko keeps society in a state of mobilization, the harder it will be to return to normal life. We need not a " digital neighborhood belt ",  but a belt of trust and responsibility.  Not a "charter of multipolarity", but real rules — where security is measured not by tanks, but by the degree of citizens’ freedom. Today, Lukashenko says that " Europe does not want peace ". But if we look honestly, it is the dictator himself who does not want dialogue.  Because peace requires openness, transparency, and internal stability. And stability is impossible without citizen trust, regular changes of power, and justice.

Illustrative photo  On October 20, Lukashenko signed the decree "On the Fixing of Raw Material Zones" According to the document, regional executive committees (oblastispolkoms) must now determine which agricultural enterprises will supply meat and dairy processing plants. In simple terms — each processor will be assigned specific suppliers. The official explanation sounds noble: "to ensure the efficient operation of enterprises and increase capacity utilization". But in reality, this is not about efficiency. It’s about control.  About a hand-operated economy, where everything depends not on the market but on orders. Similar schemes existed in the USSR, when collective farms were assigned to factories and milk collection points. Farmers had no choice whom to sell their milk or meat to — everything was decided from above. Today, Lukashenko is effectively bringing back the same system , under the guise of modern management. Instead of competition and market incentives, there is administrative assignment. Instead of growth, there is preservation of backwardness. Instead of genuine support for agricultural producers, there is another attempt to tighten the screws and subjugate the entire sector to the vertical of power. This decree is an administrative, non-market measure that may temporarily increase capacity utilization but will not be effective in the long term  for competitiveness or development. It will not even ensure the basic survival of agricultural enterprises. Agricultural enterprises will no longer be able to choose whom to sell their raw materials to. Prices will be dictated by the processor, who has no competitors. This is a path toward declining incomes. When results no longer depend on effort, motivation disappears. Why improve quality if goods can only be delivered to one place at a fixed price? Decisions about who is assigned to whom  are made by local officials. This creates the perfect environment for deals, kickbacks, and behind-the-scenes schemes. The decree gives oblastispolkoms a powerful tool of control. This fits the overall model of the regime’s economy in Belarus, where decisions are made by the administrative center rather than the market. Lukashenko likes to talk about “supporting domestic producers,” but instead of investing in technology and infrastructure, the state relies on decrees and coercion. If we follow the logic of this decree, the next step is obvious: to assign people to these "raw material zones".  So that workers cannot leave without permission. Lukashenko had previously threatened this: "No mechanic, milkwoman, and so on in the agricultural enterprise can take a step to the left or right without the decision of the manager". This is sarcasm — but in Belarus under a dictator, sarcasm often becomes reality. Today — enterprises are assigned; tomorrow — workers will be assigned;  the day after tomorrow — every Belarusian will be told where they must work. Belarus is turning into an economic version of a feudal state , where agricultural enterprises are not free to choose whom and what to sell. Why now this decree? It is part of the regime’s broader economic panic. Industry is declining, exports shrinking, foreign trade deficits growing, and the budget is short of money. Meat and dairy plant utilization has dropped, stockpiles are increasing, and profits are falling. Instead of addressing fundamental problems — modernization, logistics, marketing — Lukashenko chooses the old path: forcing compliance by decree. But the economy does not obey orders. It responds to interest and profit. History has repeatedly proven this. In 2016, a similar idea of assigning suppliers to processors was implemented temporarily, and it led to enterprises supplying low-quality raw materials just to meet quotas. In 2022, after forced redistribution of grain, decisions were made at oblast executive committees and the Ministry of Agriculture under Decree No. 754 "On the Establishment of Raw Material Zones".  Some enterprises suffered losses — logistics costs increased, prices stayed low. Today, in Russia, similar schemes in meat and dairy are already recognized as ineffective — the market deteriorated, and producers became hostages of monopolies. The decree "On the Fixing of Raw Material Zones"  is not an economic reform. It is a symptom of fear.  Fear of losing control as the old system cracks, people leave villages, and budgets run empty. Lukashenko is incapable of building an economy where incentives drive growth, so he takes the whip.  But the whip will not make a cow give more milk. He wants to force Belarus to live by the principle: "If the system doesn’t work — tighten control". But the tighter he turns the screws, the faster the mechanism breaks. The decree is another proof that his economy relies not on development, but on fear and subordination.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Representative of the Cabinet for the Transition of Power, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Leader of the "Latushka Team and the Movement 'For Freedom'" faction within the 3rd convocation of the Coordination Council. In recent months, the regime has been assuring us: “Belarus is for peace.”  But if you look closely at its actions, we see the exact opposite. When a state speaks of peace but prepares for war, it means someone has already made the decision for us. And we must stop it. In the second reading, the bill “On Amendments to Laws Regarding Military Security and Defense” was adopted. Behind the dry legal wording lies something far more dangerous than mere bureaucratic amendments. This law effectively drags Belarus into all of the Kremlin's wars. Now, an attack on Russia is automatically considered an attack on Belarus . This means that if Moscow orders it, Lukashenko can justify sending Belarusian soldiers under the guise of “protecting the Union State.” This is not defense — it is the legalization of participation in someone else’s war. Look at what has happened over the past months: October 11  — order to bring the army to the highest level of combat readiness . Mass inspections   of warning and alert systems  across the country, almost every week. Emergency Ministry exercises  at strategically important factories — “Horizon” in Minsk, casting and norm factories in Gomel . Large-scale maneuvers near Borisov  — not just firefighting drills, but scenarios of destruction, transport accidents, evacuations. Fingerprinting of conscripts , territorial army drills, and testing of internet blockages . All these "small things" add up to one big picture: the regime is systematically testing the country’s mobilization mechanism.  These are not exercises — they are a full dress rehearsal for war. Look at the state programs for the next five years: out of 28, 8 are dedicated to " national security ",  and 4 are completely classified.  They are overseen by the KGB, Ministry of Defense, and State Military Industry Committee. This is not about security; it is about fear.  The fear of a regime that is preparing not to protect its people, but to protect itself from its people.  When a government stops believing in the future, it begins preparing for war. The illegitimate authorities repeat: "We are for peace, but must be ready for anything" . But let’s be honest: where does the real threat to Belarus come from today?  From the west? From Poland or Lithuania, which themselves live under the threat of war? Or perhaps from the east — from Lukashenko’s “ally,” who has already dragged Ukraine into a terrible tragedy and is now seeking new partners to continue it? If we put all the events together, from military assemblies to new laws, a clear picture emerges: Lukashenko is preparing to enter a war on Russia’s side.  Not because Belarus needs it, but because he cannot say " no "  to Putin. Because he is politically, financially, and energetically dependent.  Because in exchange for staying on the throne, he is willing to pay with our lives. Here is another proof of this dependence: next year, Belarus will receive almost 6.7 billion rubles in so-called " grants from foreign states ". This is 12% of the entire state budget.  This amount is one and a half times larger than last year and nearly double all defense expenditures. Experts say it openly: this money is from Russia , possibly to compensate for losses at Belarusian refineries due to the tax maneuver — or perhaps for something even more. The regime is essentially living on Russian subsidies. Now ask: can a country that receives every eighth ruble of its budget from Moscow truly be independent?  Can such a regime refuse Kremlin requests  if asked to "help a brotherly people" in a "special military operation"? The answer is obvious. In December, Lukashenko will convene the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly  — a body he himself granted new powers. According to the new Constitution, it is this assembly that now has the right to declare war, send troops abroad, and introduce martial law. Lukashenko has already stated plainly: "If war breaks out tomorrow — we convene the Assembly and put the country on a war footing". This means that the decision for war may be made not by the people, but by a group of appointed officials and security officers.  Without discussion, without a referendum, without our consent. Our soldiers are our children, brothers, neighbors.  They should not die in someone else’s war , where Belarus has no objectives.  Belarus faces no real threat. Yet we are being dragged into a conflict the country does not want to enter. We remember how in 2022, missiles were launched from our territory in Ukraine.  We saw the authorities deny the obvious.  Now they want to make that shame legal. We must record every step of militarization , document exercises, military purchases, and new laws. Mothers must speak out:   "My son will not go fight for someone else’s ambitions, on foreign soil". We must strive to speak the truth while there is still time.