Insights from The Associated Press, CBS News, and The Economist Source: semafor.com Two Polish men have been arrested in Poland on suspicion of having attacked a close ally of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Warsaw officials said Friday. A Belarusian working for Russia who allegedly ordered the assassination attempt was also arrested. Russian activist Leonid Volkov, a close aide of Navalny, was attacked by assailants wielding a hammer and pepper spray on March 12 near his home in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, where he lives in exile. The suspects in the attack carried out “the orders of the special services of an alien country,” a spokesperson for a Warsaw court said Friday. Volkov has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “henchmen” of bearing responsibility. The arrests are the latest in a string of incidents that show how deeply Russian interests have penetrated Europe. On Thursday, German authorities said they had arrested two men on suspicion of spying for Russia to collect information about potential attack targets. And another Polish citizen was also arrested this week for allegedly helping to plan an attempt to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Attack underscored how dissidents are unsafe wherever they go The attack on Volkov underscored the risks for dissidents of both Russia and Belarus who have sought safety in Lithuania, Poland, and elsewhere, The Associated Press reported. Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian culture minister now in exile in Warsaw, told the outlet: “it is evident that all boundaries have been breached, and crimes can be committed within the territories of European Union member countries.” “I think the aim of such attacks is to paralyze people, to paralyze democratic movements,” said Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who also lives in exile in Lithuania.

Joint statement by Pavel Latushka and Yury Hubarevich on participating in the elections for the Coordination Council Pavel Latushka: "Belarusians should have the right to elect their representatives. Unfortunately, this is not yet possible in Belarus. However, we now have the opportunity to elect our representatives through the Coordination Council elections. I call upon all of us to take part in these elections. As a Belarusian politician, I am submitting my application to participate in the Coordination Council elections and express my gratitude to everyone who has joined our team. We have formed a coalition with the "For Freedom" movement, and we have also been joined by other public associations, bloggers, diplomats, lawyers, cultural figures, and entrepreneurs." Yury Hubarevich: "The "For Freedom" movement supports the call for Belarusians to participate in the elections for the Coordination Council. Strengthening the representative institutions of democratic forces through elections is a natural and essential aspect of the democratic process and its development. After being deprived of the right to choose in our homeland for decades, Belarusians have finally been given the opportunity to elect their representatives." Pavel Latushka: "Let's participate in the elections together. After 3.5 years of continuous struggle, it is important for us to understand that no one will solve our problems for us, Belarusians. Simultaneously, we must demand that our international partners adhere to the principle of 'nothing about us without us’. The primary task of the new Coordination Council should be to defend the national interests of Belarus and the rights of Belarusians, as well as to influence decisions that may affect each and every one of us. I firmly believe that the democratically elected Coordination Council will also be in demand during the transitional period of changes in Belarus. Your support is crucial to us! Support independence, responsibility, and freedom! Support us!" Long live Belarus!

Uladzimir Astapenka, Deputy Head of NAM, recounted the establishment of the Belarusian Embassy in Belgium in 1995. During that time, in March 1995, Lukashenko himself attended the opening, marking his first and only official visit to Brussels. He engaged in meetings with Belgian leadership and the European Union, signing a partnership and cooperation agreement. However, this agreement never came into effect as its ratification was halted after the unconstitutional referendum of 1996. Prior to the opening, an ambassador was appointed to Brussels, commencing their work essentially from scratch. Initially, they rented an apartment in a high-rise building, where their efforts began. Later, a separate house was found, which was eventually purchased and renovated to suit the needs of the embassy. As Minister-Counselor of the Belarusian Embassy in Belgium, I actively participated in the process. For the embassy's inauguration, they commissioned a large edition of a splendid postcard, featuring an artist's impressionist depiction of the embassy building with our national flag proudly displayed. And I still have a picture before my eyes - an old building with a white-red-white flag. After the infamous 1995 referendum, where Lukashenko changed our national symbols to the red and green palette of the BSSR era, instructions were issued to replace the flags. However, the embassy hesitated to immediately remove the white-red-white flag, which continued to adorn the building for a significant period. Today, in Brussels, there is a representation of the Belarusian society - of the majority, who took to the streets in 2020 under thousands of white-red-white flags to protest against dictatorship and violence. Our national flag proudly flies at the Mission of Democratic Belarus in Brussels. This institution's vital work serves as a crucial stepping stone towards the day when national flags will flutter over Belarusian embassies worldwide, unyieldingly standing as a symbol that cannot be taken down.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Recently, the dictator has begun discussing his significant role in the post-war future and has complained that Vladimir Zelensky has been "bullying" him and "getting him involved in incomprehensible processes." Well, how is it that the main "peacekeeper" in the region is suddenly involved in something incomprehensible? Let's try to help Lukashenko understand what these "incomprehensible processes" are. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, with Lukashenko's consent and full support, became a launchpad for the attack on the Kyiv region. Perhaps Lukashenko still doesn't grasp the implications? In this case, the UN General Assembly Resolution of December 14, 1974, specifically adopted to define acts of aggression, can come to his aid. Specifically, Article 3, paragraph f of this Resolution states that an act of aggression, among other things, will be classified as "an act of a state allowing its territory, which it has made available to another state, to be used by that other state to commit an act of aggression against a third state." The invasion from Belarus into Ukraine, facilitated by the Lukashenko regime, is an act of aggression. Providing Belarusian territory and infrastructure for over 800 missile attacks on Ukrainian territory is an act of aggression. Aggression is one of the four most serious crimes under international law. They are all listed in the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court: Genocide; Crimes against humanity; War crimes; Crime of aggression. Lukashenko has committed at least three out of these four crimes. Potentially, all four if we consider the Resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, adopted in April of last year, which addressed the deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children and other civilians from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In this resolution, the Parliamentary Assembly called Lukashenko complicit in these war crimes and called for him to be held accountable. Additionally, it characterized these crimes as having indications of genocide. In January 2024, as a follow-up to this resolution, a new resolution was adopted by the Parliamentary Assembly on the situation with children in Ukraine. It once again highlighted the role of the Lukashenko regime in committing the aforementioned crimes and called on Council of Europe member countries to recognize the deportation of Ukrainian children as genocide. In addition to crimes against Ukraine, from May 2020 to May 2023, according to a report by the Justice Hub Center for Law and Democracy, at least 136,000 Belarusian men, women, and minors fell victim to crimes against humanity committed by the Lukashenko regime. These crimes continue to be perpetrated to this day. The crime of aggression persists, just as the war crimes of the Lukashenko regime do. His complicity in the war and his assistance to Russia in circumventing sanctions also continue. What Lukashenko refers to as "incomprehensible processes" have clear definitions. These are grave international crimes. The dictator and his accomplices will be held accountable for each of them. These are not incomprehensible matters, but specific criminal cases.

Pavel Latushka for Wyborcza.pl There is only one effective way to counter Lukashenko's pressure - to communicate with the dictator using the only language he comprehends. On April 16, Andrzej Poczobut once again marks his birthday behind bars. For over three years, Andrzej, this courageous activist of the Polish minority, an honest journalist, and an unwavering champion of truth, freedom, and democracy, has been held hostage. He is one of the thousands (!) of hostages of the Lukashenko regime, countless political prisoners who have been thrown behind bars by the dictator since the events of 2020. Three years for a political prisoner in Belarus is not just a period of imprisonment.These three years have been marked by abuse, torture, deprivation of communication with the outside world, lack of access to packages and medicines. It has been three years of living in hell, an ordeal that not everyone can survive. Contact with Poczobut has been severed. “He is currently isolated from the outside world” To date, we are aware of six cases of political prisoners who have lost their lives in Belarus. Through torture and denying necessary medical care, the Lukashenko regime has already caused the deaths of Vitold Ashurak, Ales Pushkin, Mikalai Klimovich, Ihar Lednik, and Vadzim Khrasko. On April 10, we received the tragic news of Aliaksandr Kulinich's death. Many political prisoners are confined in solitary confinement, and their health conditions remain unknown. We don't even know for sure if they are alive. Mikalai Statkevich, Ihar Losik, Viktar Babaryka, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, Maksim Znak, Maryia Kalesnikava and many others. We don't know anything about their condition. Since being transferred to correctional colony No. 1 in the city of Novopolotsk, one of the harshest prisons in Belarus, there has been a severe lack of information regarding Andrzej Poczobut. He has not had any visits, phone calls, or communication with the outside world. He is completely cut off from society. Despite his heart condition, he is not receiving the necessary medications. Since August of last year, Andrzej has been confined to a cell with an even stricter detention regime known as a PKT (cell-type room). During this period, he has been placed in a punishment cell multiple times. Unfortunately, this is all the information we have. Since February 26, all contact with Andrzej has ceased entirely. Andrzej Poczobut is a resilient man, a symbol of the fight for democracy and our joint Belarusian-Polish hero. Those who know him are confident that he remains steadfast, unwavering in his principles. Andrzej has consistently declined to submit a petition for pardon to Lukashenko, maintaining his stance and expressing it in one of his letters: "I have no need for pardons. I will not seek contact or make any requests, even under pressure. Such conduct would be morally wrong in cases like mine." Having been unable to break Andrzej Poczobut's spirit, Lukashenko’s court sentenced him to 8 years in a maximum-security correctional facility on February 8 of the previous year. On May 26 of the same year, Andzrej’s appeal was rejected. Despite Poland's diplomatic efforts, resolutions from international organizations, and the closure of several border crossings in demand for Poczobut's release and that of other political prisoners, the vengeful Lukashenko refuses to comply. The only way to deal with Lukashenko. "The language of integrity and strength" Lukashenko, in fact, intensifies the pressure on Andrzej, concurrently escalating his anti-Polish policies. These include increased repression of the Polish national minority in Belarus, the dissolution of Polish organizations, the closure of Polish language schools and courses, the desecration of burial sites and monuments, as well as heightened pressure on the Belarusian-Polish border, even resorting to mobilizing groups of illegal migrants. How much longer will this continue? How long will the repression, abuse, and torture of political prisoners endure in Belarus? How long will Lukashenko hold hostages? How long will Andrzej Poczobut's personal hell persist — one year, two years, eight years? How long will Lukashenko's hybrid aggression against Poland and other EU countries persist? These are not questions that should remain unanswered. I believe that these questions do have answers; however, it requires a resolute political will to provide them. The release of Andrzej Poczobut and other political prisoners, as well as putting an end to the aggression of the Lukashenko regime, can be achieved through determined action. This individual, if we can even call him that, only understands one language — the language of determination and strength, the language of even greater pressure. He is not deterred by fences and closed border crossings; they only inconvenience migrants and ordinary Belarusians attempting to cross the border. Essentially, he shows no concern for the possibility of ordinary Belarusians crossing the border. In fact, he would prefer borders that are entirely closed to such movement. This is every dictator's dream. He does not appear to be greatly concerned about the current trade sanctions and partial restrictions, as their scope is limited. This is especially true when considering Lukashenko's own acknowledgement that trade turnover in certain product categories has actually increased by 3-5 times under these sanctions. What could truly unsettle him? What form of assertive action could effectively address the situation at the Belarus-Poland border? Which measures could genuinely compel Lukashenko to release Andrzej Poczobut, along with thousands of other political prisoners, and compel him to cease the orchestrated attacks using illegal migrants? To achieve this, we must adopt the principle that Andrzej Poczobut has exemplified. We must respond to Lukashenko's pressure with even greater pressure, involving China in finding a solution to the Lukashenko problem — completely severing trade communication with Belarus, including railway connections. Our common hero. One for all and all for one Today, Andrzej Poczobut sends a signal to us all that freedom for an entire country at the heart of Europe is more important than freedom for just one individual. Are we ready to accept and implement this principle—one for all, and all for one? I believe we do not have the luxury of waiting for an answer. We must adhere to this principle so that our common hero, Andrzej Poczobut, and thousands of other hostages of Lukashenko have a genuine chance at freedom. After all, freedom and the struggle for it should always be grounded in unwavering principles. Warsaw April 16, 2024 Source: wyborcza.pl

It is crucial to address the issue of double discrimination against Belarusian independent athletes, according to the stance of the National Anti-Crisis Management regarding the participation of Belarusians in the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris. Presently, Belarusian free athletes face dual discrimination due to inconsistent policies within the international sports community. On one hand, they are discriminated against by the Lukashenko regime for their opposition to violence and war, resulting in their exclusion from national teams, terminations, blacklisting, detentions, or even being compelled to leave Belarus. On the other hand, Belarusian independent athletes are excluded from international sports by the federations themselves due to the aggression launched by Russia against Ukraine with the support of the Lukashenko regime. Since 2020, the Lukashenko regime has carried out unprecedented repression against athletes. Over 136 Belarusian sports representatives have been unlawfully targeted for their civic activities, leading to terminations, detentions, and blacklisting. Currently, more than 20 Belarusian athletes and sports professionals are officially recognized as political prisoners. SOS.BY has been labeled as an extremist organization by the Belarusian KGB. Athletes who have spoken out against the war have been subjected to a separate wave of repression. On December 8, 2023, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) decided to allow athletes with Russian and Belarusian passports to participate in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris under strict conditions. One of the conditions introduced is that athletes and service personnel with contracts with the Russian or Belarusian military or law enforcement agencies will not be granted participation in the competitions. However, the IOC's position was only advisory for international federations. As a result, the specialized federations have the final say on admitting Belarusian athletes to the qualifying competitions. Due to the varying approaches taken by international federations, Belarusian sports find themselves in a situation where independent athletes have been excluded from participating in competitions, while athletes affiliated with the Lukashenko regime have been admitted to the 2024 Olympic Games. The NAM team has prepared justifications and submitted requests to the IOC and relevant international federations to conduct thorough verification of at least four athletes from the Lukashenko regime who have qualified for the Olympic Games and are associated with military and security forces. We have been in contact with representatives from the International Athletics Federation, the International Swimming Federation, the International Federation of Greco-Roman Wrestling, Freestyle Wrestling, and Women's Wrestling, as well as the national federations of Poland for tennis, football, athletics, and judo. We have also engaged with the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Sports of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Germany, France, the United States, and Norway. Additionally, specific efforts are being made within the framework of the Commission of the Ministry of Sports of Poland regarding the admission of athletes with Belarusian and Russian passports. The National Anti-Crisis Management will continue to collaborate with partner countries, federations, and the IOC to bring about change regarding Belarusian athletes. We express our gratitude to the athletes who contribute to our efforts and provide information for subsequent verification, as well as those who assist in addressing the issue of double discrimination against Belarusian athletes. We extend special thanks to the journalists, including the editorial team of Tribuna, for providing documents that confirm the athletes' affiliation with the military and security forces of the Lukashenko regime.

Commentary by NAM on new sanctions by the US and Canada against the regime: The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has imposed sanctions on 12 organizations and 10 individuals due to the Lukashenko regime's support for Russian aggression against Ukraine and its involvement in evading sanctions. These sanctions target state-owned enterprises and key defense sector companies in Belarus. Canada has also implemented sanctions in coordination with the US. These new measures signify international efforts to address the anti-democratic actions of the Lukashenko regime and its profiting from supporting Russia's war against Ukraine. NAM has long highlighted the existence of extensive networks intended to bypass international sanctions and assist the Russian military-industrial complex. OFAC's decision validates our findings, revealing the involvement of Belarusian state-owned enterprises in supporting Russia's aggressive actions. It is worth noting that democratic forces played an active role in uncovering some of these illicit schemes. We also would like to stress the fact that several individuals and organizations included in Canada's sanctions list were proposed based on our initiative. One of the networks linked to the Black Shield company has been selling weapons for use in various military conflicts in Asia and Africa for nearly a decade. This underscores the hypocrisy of a regime that claims to be peace-loving while enabling the use of Belarusian weapons in war-torn regions of the world's poorest countries. Unfortunately, the regime and its affiliated business entities have failed to learn from past lessons. They continue to disregard international law by establishing new shell companies to evade sanctions. This endless cat-and-mouse game can only be halted through decisive measures aimed at eradicating the root of the problem. We urge the international community to take stronger action to help put an end to these destructive activities of the Lukashenko regime.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador In response to Western sanctions for specific violations of international law, Lukashenko periodically announces the implementation of counter-sanctions against countries that he views as unfriendly to him. However, the sanctions imposed by Lukashenko on Western countries hold no practical or economic significance for these nations. Yet, the dictator persistently enforces them. But why? He is well aware that these counter-sanctions, imposed on countries that he considers unfriendly, only exacerbate the situation in the Belarusian economy and fail to generate much-needed budget revenues. Nevertheless, the dictator aims to convince Belarusians that the Western sanctions are directed against the people. In reality, these sanctions are directed at Lukashenko himself, who illegitimately seized power, his ability to assist in Russian aggression against Ukraine, and his creation of a threat to regional security. They also aim to prevent Lukashenko and his inner circle from plundering the country's resources and wantonly destroying Belarus's natural wealth. Under such circumstances, it is crucial for Lukashenko to once again convince Belarusians that the sanctions are imposed on them. To achieve this goal, the dictator resorts to cunning and deception. He himself introduces sanctions that adversely impact Belarusians. The mechanics and propagandists take over, emphasizing that what matters is the fact that these are sanctions, regardless of their origin, and that Belarusians should feel their effects. The easiest way to achieve this is through the scarcity of various goods and services that Belarusians are accustomed to. Here are a few examples: After the adoption of the fifth package of EU sanctions "for ongoing violations of human rights and the instrumentalization of migrants," Lukashenko pledged to respond with "tough, asymmetrical, but proportionate measures." Consequently, a resolution from the Council of Ministers was issued, imposing a ban on the import of several agricultural goods, including meat, sausage, milk and dairy products, vegetables, and fruits. In response to the closure of checkpoints, Lukashenko prohibited the import of specific goods from Lithuania for sale in Belarus. These goods include clothing, vinegar, tires and tubes, as well as used vehicle parts and accessories. The import of other selected goods originating from Lithuania is also prohibited, such as condensed cream, fruits and nuts, coffee, fruit juices, vinegar, hosiery, certain construction products, refrigerators, and freezers. All these counter-sanctions imposed by Lukashenko will only affect Belarusian consumers by reducing the availability of commonly imported goods or by causing price increases not only for these goods but also for their Belarusian-produced alternatives. Lukashenko has never shown genuine concern for the well-being and prosperity of the Belarusian people. To the dictator, the people are mere pawns to sustain his usurped power.

Pavel Latushka, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Lukashenko's sudden visit to Moscow and the subsequent public remarks have sparked numerous conclusions and contemplations. First and foremost, attention is drawn to the fact that Lukashenko was summoned to a meeting of the Russian Federation's Security Council, a body responsible for discussing and making critical strategic decisions. This occurrence suggests several possibilities. On one hand, Lukashenko's invitation sends a clear message that Belarus, under his leadership, is regarded as an integral part of the Russian Empire. This once again underscores Lukashenko's lack of independence, his subservience to the Kremlin, and his inability to pursue an autonomous foreign and military policy. At best, his capacity to do so is severely limited. On the other hand, Lukashenko's participation in the Russian Security Council meeting was likely intended to convey to him the necessary steps Belarus must take to further support and expand its involvement in the aggression against Ukraine. Lukashenko's subsequent public comments and statements indicate that he did not receive the understanding he sought within the Russian Security Council. Instead, he was confronted with a clear and unambiguous position: Belarus must become more deeply embroiled in the confrontation with Ukraine, and at a critical juncture, its territory should be made available for aggression not only towards Ukraine but potentially to destabilize the borders with European Union member states as well. Several pieces of evidence support this conclusion. Firstly, Lukashenko, as he has done many times before, utilizes public means of opposition in an attempt to resist the instructions issued to him by the Kremlin regarding domestic and foreign policy matters in Belarus. Lukashenko's public statements to the Russian media align with the notion that Russia needs a Belarus that is already engaged in warfare but no longer employed for direct military purposes. Yet, Lukashenko avoids delving into the specifics of Belarus' current support for Russia. It is clear to us that one of the principal factors is the contribution of Belarus' entire industrial sector to meeting the military demands of the Russian Federation, encompassing the production of weapons, weapon components, food supplies, uniforms, and other forms of material support for the Russian Armed Forces, in order to participate in the aggression against Ukraine. Simultaneously, Lukashenko repeatedly presents one of his primary arguments to the Kremlin against reutilizing Belarusian territory—the existence of lengthy borders with both Ukraine and NATO member countries, which purportedly create the threat of Russia being "stabbed in the back" via Belarus. The National Anti-Crisis Management team has previously noted the significance of this key argument put forth by Lukashenko. Why does the Kremlin reject this thesis? The Kremlin is well aware that none of the NATO member countries have any intention of carrying out aggression against Belarus, which completely undermines Lukashenko's claim about the need to protect the western borders to prevent a potential betrayal of Russia in its ongoing war. Regarding Ukraine, the dictator mentions the presence of a significant defense system on the Belarus-Ukraine border, the deployment of Ukrainian armed units, the mining of territories, and the construction of defensive structures. This contradicts Lukashenko's arguments about external threats and further confirms that Ukraine has no plans for aggressive actions against Belarus. This thesis requires no additional evidence since Ukraine is participating in the war in order to reclaim its own territories. Lukashenko's extensive and public efforts to emphasize the necessity of a "peaceful Belarus" for Russia serve as evidence that he failed to achieve this objective during the Russian Security Council meeting. It can be assumed that the Kremlin will continue to exert pressure on him in order to exploit Belarus' territory in a manner appropriate and advantageous for Russia's military and political interests. Another noteworthy aspect is Lukashenko's statement regarding his willingness to undertake a peacekeeping role between Ukraine and Russia. By refraining from making offensive statements against the Ukrainian President, and even addressing him familiarly as "Volodya," Lukashenko persistently proposes the initiation of peace negotiations. This approach aligns with Lukashenko's interests for several reasons. Firstly, it avoids involving Belarus in the continuation of the war. Secondly, Belarus' engagement in the war would have catastrophic consequences for Lukashenko himself, leading to a more negative perception within Belarusian society. Thirdly, such involvement would result in more severe international sanctions, leaving Lukashenko entirely accountable for his repeated overt participation in aggression against Ukraine. Lastly, Lukashenko is pursuing a crucial domestic political objective. He seeks to replicate the scenario of the 2015 elections when he managed to secure support from a significant portion of Belarusian society by purportedly playing a key role in initiating the Minsk negotiations. Strategically, Lukashenko aims to regain the role of mediator in the war between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, it is important to consider that Lukashenko's role as a mediator has a time limit. It can be assumed that Moscow has taken a clear position that starting from May 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine loses legitimacy and cannot be involved in any negotiations. According to the aggressor's perspective, this provides Russia with full justification to continue military actions and occupy even larger territories of Ukraine. Consequently, the need to involve Lukashenko in the war will likely increase after May 21, 2024. Based on the analysis of Lukashenko's statements, the following conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, Lukashenko was unsuccessful in convincing Putin and the Russian Security Council to renounce the use of Belarusian territory for further aggression against Ukraine. Secondly, Lukashenko has been given a tactical opportunity to "play mediator." However, it is evident that the Kremlin is well aware of the insincerity of this role, as they themselves are not interested in negotiations until the occupied territories of Ukraine are incorporated into the Russian Constitution. Lukashenko is being used as a pawn in a public spectacle, and although it is likely that he is aware of this, he is unable to reject this puppet role due to its alignment with his own vested interests—maintaining power in Belarus. Thirdly, it can be assumed that Lukashenko has obtained an interim tacit agreement to retain the presidency for the time being, which he usurped in 2020. However, his future will depend on the unfolding situation in Ukraine, military operations, and the necessity of utilizing Belarusian territory for further aggression. It will also depend on Lukashenko's willingness or unwillingness to support the Kremlin's decisions. Lukashenko finds himself in a precarious and turbulent position, as he risks losing relevance and becoming an expendable figure for Putin. With a high degree of confidence, it can be predicted that in any case, the Kremlin can leverage the electoral situation in Belarus in 2025 to diminish Lukashenko's influence, reducing him from a kneeling position to a position of complete subservience.

Expert Opinion from NAM Lawyers In light of the adoption of the new United Nations Human Rights Council resolution on Belarus, numerous statements have been made about its significance in establishing accountability for serious human rights violations and international crimes committed in Belarus. As the NAM works towards ensuring justice in Belarus and considers it essential to prioritize objectivity in the interest of victims, we would like to share our perspective on the importance of the new resolution. The new resolution undoubtedly strengthens the potential of existing human rights mechanisms. It establishes the creation of a group of three independent experts on the human rights situation in Belarus, to be renewed annually. The group's tasks will include: Conducting investigations and establishing facts regarding serious human rights violations in Belarus since May 1, 2020; Gathering, summarizing, preserving, and analyzing evidence of such violations, and where possible, identifying those responsible for the purpose of conducting appropriate judicial and other proceedings, including criminal prosecution; Providing recommendations, particularly regarding measures for accountability; Engaging with all stakeholders, particularly Belarusian actors, and when appropriate, with the authorities in Belarus. Despite the announcement of the creation of a new mechanism, the de facto reform of the previously existing group of three experts, which was under the mandate of OHCHR, is taking place. In accordance with the new resolution, the group receives independent status, but fully retains the areas of its activities that existed previously. It is additionally given the power to identify those responsible for serious human rights violations. It is planned that the reformed mechanism will “inherit” the results of previous work. The new status of this group will help maintain the independence and objectivity of expert assessments, excluding possible political influence on conclusions and recommendations. NAM fully welcomes and supports such strengthening of the capacity of the human rights mechanism for Belarus and is grateful to the organizations that have made a significant contribution to its reform. At the same time, NAM considers it necessary to note that statements that the reformed group “was created for the purpose of bringing the Lukashenko regime to responsibility for international crimes” are incorrect. In order to avoid misleading interpretations of the resolution that create inflated expectations on the part of victims regarding the effectiveness of the process, NAM draws attention to the following key aspects of the accountability mechanism: First, it is worth noting that the term “crimes” is used exclusively in the context of criminal liability, which applies to individuals and not to the regime as a whole. Secondly, the resolution clearly states the exclusively recommendatory and advisory nature of the group’s work. The results of its activities do not lead to direct consequences for bringing the perpetrators to criminal liability. Thirdly, it must be taken into account that the group is a human rights institution with standards that differ from criminal mechanisms. The thresholds of proof under criminal standards are much higher and often the results of purely human rights work are not applicable to criminal proceedings. It should be noted that the work of documenting serious crimes in Belarus according to criminal law standards is carried out by theInternational Accountability Platform for Belarus (IAPB). Working according to different standards avoids duplicating the mandates of the two mechanisms and better serves the interests of victims. Public statements aimed at restoring the rights of victims require a responsible approach based on the basic principle of “do no harm” and a victim-centered approach.

The NAM lawyer Artsiom Praskalovich provided information on the potential danger of such involvement: “Those who engage in such "work" can face up to 10 years of imprisonment, depending on their achievements within Wagner's Private Military Company (PMC). If the individual is involved in murder, the sentence may be increased to 25 years or even life imprisonment. Working for Wagner is illegal There are specific legal provisions regarding the recruitment of mercenaries and participation in armed formations within foreign territories. If a Belarusian citizen participates in skirmishes in African states or commits murder, Belarusian authorities have the ability to initiate criminal proceedings if they choose to do so. Lukashenko continues to allow Wagner presence in Belarus Lukashenko does not interfere with the activities of their recruitment centers because he does not see the need to do so. Unlike Russia, Belarus does not have a separate office for Wagner. However, if they wish to conduct activities, they must adhere to the rules set by local security forces, with whom they consult. As long as their activities do not "cross the borders" (meaning they are not actively publicized in the media), they can safely recruit Belarusians. Currently, there are approximately 300 Wagnerians in Belarus, primarily focused on training and sharing their experiences.

"More than 6,000 enterprises, with Belarusian companies or citizens of Belarus as shareholders, were operational in Poland in 2023. Additionally, there were 12,000 Belarusian citizens engaged in sole proprietorship (JDG), and 122,000 Belarusian citizens contributed to social security in Poland. Moreover, over 12,000 Belarusian students pursued their studies in Poland. It is noteworthy that the majority of Belarusians who left their home country ended up in Poland. They have aspirations to work legally, study, pay taxes, and develop their businesses," stated Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, during his speech at the conference "Migration as a Political, Social, and Economic Problem" in Slesin, Poland. The conference, attended by representatives from Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine, was taking place from April 10 to April 11 this year. Almost four years of continuous repression have resulted in a situation where Belarusian students, pensioners, businessmen, drivers, doctors, lawyers, individuals seeking marriage or divorce, newborns, and adults in exile, as well as numerous Belarusians deprived of their professions, have sought refuge in Poland. These individuals have lost their property, livelihoods, and the ability to comply with the requirements of Polish legislation regarding legalization and administrative procedures. Assisting Belarusians abroad is one of the most crucial tasks for the democratic forces of Belarus. During his speech, Pavel Latushka addressed the following issues: The importance of restoring the Polish Business Harbour program; Simplifying the legalization process for Belarusian children born or reaching adulthood in Poland; Examining the possibility of extending the validity of humanitarian residence permits issued in Poland beyond the current three-year period. Additionally, considering the issuance of humanitarian visas not only to individuals who have faced repression but also to their relatives, including Belarusians residing in third countries; Extending the validity of Polish travel documents to three years; Exploring the possibility of protecting the interests of individuals who have received international protection in Poland in third countries; Simplifying the procedure for filing applications for marriage registration; Resolving pension provision issues for individuals in international protection status and on other grounds; Reducing the requirement for Belarusian students to provide documents from Belarusian government bodies for admission and continuation of their studies in Poland; Providing international protection for Belarusian students based on information about attempted conscription into the army or the threat of criminal prosecution for draft evasion; Potential refusal by government agencies and universities to provide documents concerning students when requested by Belarusian government agencies in order to prevent further political repression; Creating favorable conditions for the development of Belarusian businesses in Poland; Eliminating discrimination against Belarusians in Poland in all forms of interaction with private organizations and the state, such as opening bank accounts, among others; Reducing the time required for administrative procedures related to the legalization of Belarusians in Poland, particularly in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship and Wroclaw. Pavel Latushka has already submitted an appeal to the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Poland and the voivode of the Lower Silesian Voivodeship, requesting a meeting to find solutions that expedite the issuance of documents to Belarusian citizens residing in this region. Pavel Latushka also emphasized, "The dictatorship in Belarus is not eternal, as demonstrated by the example of Poland. We are interested in Poland becoming a strategic partner of a democratic Belarus in Europe, in both politics and economics. Our deep common history, absence of past conflicts, and close cultural and traditional ties provide advantages for future collaboration." The leadership of the Higher School of Management Personnel and NAM will transmit the necessary materials to the government authorities of Poland for resolving problematic issues faced by Belarusians.