Today, on December 14, 2023, the European Parliament adopted a Resolution addressing political prisoners in Belarus and recent repressions against the family members of Belarusian politicians and activists. The content of this Resolution holds significant importance for several reasons. Informally referred to as the "Resolution of Mikalai Statkevich," it can be characterized as a special resolution specifically focused on the situation of political prisoners in Belarus. This emphasis is crucial as it highlights the deteriorating conditions and increasing repression faced by political prisoners, including their isolation, lack of communication, bullying, denial of rights such as correspondence, access to legal representation, and medical care. Instances of torture are also noted. Importantly, the European Parliament references the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, which explicitly identifies the conditions of detention in Belarus as constituting cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment and torture. Such treatment can be categorized as a crime against humanity under Article 7 of the Rome Statute. Furthermore, the European Parliament not only highlights the alarming situation with political prisoners in Belarus but also calls upon EU member states to take specific measures to exert pressure on the Lukashenko regime. These measures include the following steps: Increased sanctions pressure; Summoning the remaining diplomatic representatives of the regime to obtain evidence of the condition and whereabouts of political prisoners deprived of communication with the outside world; Documenting international crimes and bringing perpetrators to justice; Criminal prosecution and application of sanctions against all those responsible for human rights violations and war crimes under the Lukashenko regime. The inclusion of these measures in the text of the Resolution was initiated with the active participation of the National Anti-Crisis Management team. Head of NAM Pavel Latushka noted: “In its Resolution, the European Parliament clearly states the demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, their full rehabilitation, and compensation for the damage caused to them. This position is consistent with the positions recently voiced by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell and US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller - pressure on the Lukashenko regime and sanctions against it will not be eased until all political prisoners are released. In the context of the adoption of this Resolution, it is also worth noting that on November 1, 2023, during a rally in Warsaw, our team took the initiative to adopt a resolution that is in many ways consonant with today’s Resolution of the European Parliament. The resolution at the meeting was unanimously adopted and subsequently sent to the governments of EU member states, the USA, Canada, Great Britain, and the European Commission. Today, we see that the voice of Belarusians is heard, and the activity of the diaspora in the struggle for the release of political prisoners is extremely important. Our joint efforts are producing results. We must build upon them and continue the fight to free our people and bring to justice those who took our people hostage. We have no right to give up. Only through responsibility, only through powerful pressure can we free everyone." Long live Belarus!

On December 11, Pavel Latushka met with the EU Special Envoy for Sanctions, David O'Sullivan, in Brussels. The discussions revolved around various issues related to the imposition of sanctions on the Lukashenko regime. Pavel Latushka presented the stance of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and the National Anti-Crisis Management regarding the necessity of aligning economic sanctions against both the Lukashenko regime and Russia. The objective was to prevent the circumvention of sanctions while not easing restrictions on potash fertilizers from Belarus. Furthermore, the option of prohibiting the transit of sanctioned goods through Belarus and Russia or implementing trade quotas on these goods with third countries at pre-war levels, prior to the adoption of major sectoral sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, was proposed. There was also a suggestion to isolate the Financial Message Transmission System of the Bank of Russia and impose sanctions on institutions and officials of the Union State of Belarus and Russia for their involvement in the illegal movement of Ukrainian children and actions that undermine the sovereignty of Belarus. O'Sullivan expressed support for the approach of harmonizing sanctions against the Lukashenko regime and the existing sanctions against Russia. The parties agreed that the lack of a resolution to this issue significantly hampers the effectiveness of the EU's sanctions policy. However, current obstacles prevent substantial progress in the harmonization of sanctions, and potential solutions to overcome them were discussed. Additionally, Pavel Latushka provided O'Sullivan with the findings of the Bureau project's investigation into the evasion of sanctions on luxury cars, which had been published by independent Belarusian media on that day. Proposals for enhancing the effectiveness of sanctions were also submitted by the Belarusian Investigation Center. Pavel Latushka also emphasized the importance of imposing sanctions on the Union State as an institution, as it contributes to increasing Belarus' dependence on Russia with the ultimate goal of incorporating Belarus into Russia. During the meeting, Latushka initiated a discussion on implementing additional sanctions to exert pressure on the Lukashenko regime, with the primary objective of securing the release of political prisoners. Furthermore, Latushka handed over a list containing the names of more than 200 individuals and legal entities associated with the Lukashenko regime, proposing their inclusion in the sanctions list. It is anticipated that the upcoming EU sanctions package for aggression against Ukraine will include several military personnel and officials from the Lukashenko regime.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Many people believe that sanctions are the primary factor pushing Belarus closer to Russia. However, a closer examination of economic indicators suggests that we should reconsider this assertion. Discussion on sanctions and occupation In discussions about sanctions, the question of whether Belarus should be considered as occupied territory often arises. This aspect is significant because sanctions against business entities registered in occupied territories are typically more stringent than those imposed on the territory of the occupier. The examples of Crimea and the "DPR" support this argument. In this context, there are no valid arguments to weaken sanctions against the so-called "DPR" in order to avoid pushing Donetsk further into the arms of the Kremlin. There are numerous reasons for this, including the open borders between the occupier and the occupied territory, which would allow the occupier to exploit any loophole to circumvent sanctions. Therefore, those who claim that our country is occupied and simultaneously argue for the weakening of sanctions because they push Belarus even closer to Russia must consider this circumstance before making unequivocal statements. Economic dependence on Russia With the exception of certain industries, most of Belarus' economy has long been closely tied to Russia, even without sanctions. This has been a goal of Lukashenko since his election program in 1994, and it remains the strategy that the dictator has adhered to for the past 30 years. There is nothing new here, and functionally, his approaches have not changed since 2020. Industries such as oil refining, the chemical industry, mechanical engineering, and metallurgy are simply not competitive in their traditional sales markets without the supply of energy resources from Russia. Therefore, it is impossible to further strengthen ties with Russia in these sectors. Increase in imports from the EU Despite claims that sanctions are “pushing” Belarus towards Russia, imports from the EU reached record levels in 2023, contradicting the notion of a complete economic shift towards Russia. Loss of trade ties with Ukraine For instance, in 2019, Russia accounted for 49% of Belarus’ trade turnover, while Ukraine accounted for over 8%. However, last year, Russia’s share increased to 60%, while Ukraine’s share dropped to 0%. Where did the trade turnover with Ukraine go? It shifted towards trade relations between Belarus and Russia. The complete loss of the largest portion of non-Russian exports occurred not primarily due to sanctions, but as a result of the treacherous attack on Ukraine and, regrettably, our country’s involvement in the aggression, which led to a complete halt in trade with Ukraine. Index analysis In addition to speculative conclusions from analysts, there are objective indicators, indices that illustrate the concentration of a country’s exports and imports. By analyzing these indices, the following conclusions can be drawn: Trade concentration has been unacceptably high for a long time, even prior to the imposition of sanctions, and is significantly higher than the corresponding parameters for Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine. Before 2020, there was a trend towards increasing concentration, while Belarus’ neighbors exhibited a declining trend. In other words, our neighbors diversified their markets, but despite Lukashenko’s teleconferencing, Belarus did not. In 2021, when sanctions were introduced, trade concentration did not increase; instead, it decreased. This means that, contrary to expectations, the markets to which Belarusian goods are supplied expanded. To claim that sanctions increase trade dependence on Russia, three conditions must be met: low trade concentration prior to the sanctions, an increase in concentration after the imposition of sanctions, and a direct link between this increase and the introduction of sanctions. In reality, all three conditions are absent.

The Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute has been taking place in New York from December 4th to December 14th. This event serves as a crucial platform for communication between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the states parties to the Rome Statute. During this gathering, representatives of states bring attention to situations involving the most serious international crimes. This annual event also includes the election of six new judges for the International Criminal Court, who will serve for the next nine years. Additionally, budget issues and reports on the court's activities are discussed. Several state representatives, in their speeches, have positively acknowledged the ICC's decisive actions in prosecuting those responsible for the deportation of Ukrainian children. There is hope that the investigation into crimes against Ukrainian children will continue. Thanks to the efforts of the NAM team, the issue of war crimes against children committed by Lukashenko is receiving significant attention during the ongoing ICC Assembly meeting. Furthermore, among ICC representatives and members of the expert community, there is no doubt that Lukashenko's actions towards Ukraine and the Belarusian people constitute crimes of aggression and crimes against humanity. However, the implementation of existing mechanisms requires the political will of states. In this regard, Pavel Latushka and the NAM team will continue to actively advocate for holding Lukashenko accountable for the crimes he has committed.

Pavel Latushka on the struggle of Belarusians within the country. Have you ever considered the significance of having 1,500 political prisoners (although in reality, we can safely multiply that number by 3, 4, or maybe even 5 times) in a country with a population of 9 million? It signifies a struggle. It shows that people have not given up. The term “political prisoner” itself implies that individuals have taken political actions, expressed their positions, and continue to do so. For instance, in Russia, a country with a population of 140 million, according to data from organizations like Memorial, there are only 87 political prisoners. Let's even multiply that number by 3, 4, or 5. Nevertheless, the difference is evident. And I believe it is clear that this difference does not arise because Russia is a more democratic state than Belarus. It is because Belarusians are fighting. Internal pressure on the regime is tangible, and the regime is compelled to take it into account. The regime is genuinely afraid of it. External pressure is about accountability. It involves international mechanisms for holding regimes like Belarus accountable. These mechanisms include sanctions, legal consequences, and political isolation of the regime. We are employing these tools, although with partial success, but it is not enough at the moment. Primarily, this is because these tools are not in our hands but in the hands of our partners. It is crucial for the people who continue to resist within the country to see that they are supported and assisted, and that the regime is held accountable and not allowed to act with impunity.

Several individuals and entities from Belarus have been targeted by American sanctions Primarily, these include military-industrial complex enterprises such as the following: the Research and production holding of precision engineering "Planar"; OAO "Holding Management Company "GORIZONT"; OAO MMZ named after S.I. Vavilov (the management company of BelOMO holding); OAO "Zenit-BelOMO"; OAO "Alevkurp"; the Scientific and Technical Center "LEMT" BelOMO. The leaders of these entities, namely Nikolai Gaichuk, Alexander Moroz, and Alexey Shkadarevich, have also been included in the sanctions list. Additionally, the sanctions list encompasses the Bellesbumprom concern, the management company of the Belarusian Cement Company holding, and the Beltamozhservice Republican Unitary Enterprise, along with General Director Vadim Babarikin. Furthermore, sanctions have been imposed on certain individuals and their companies associated with Lukashenko's financial interests. These include OOO Tabak-Invest, its director Viktor Petrovich, and owner Pavel Topuzidis, as well as the OAO Management Company of the Amkodor Holding and its owner Alexander Shakutin. Dmitry Shevtsov, the unrecognized head of the Belarusian Red Cross Society, who was involved in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children, has also been subjected to sanctions. Despite heightened lobbying efforts to ease sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to exert pressure on those who violate international law. We applaud the decision of the US authorities to expand sanctions, which underscores their clear understanding of the criminal nature of the Lukashenko regime. This regime is responsible for instigating the war against Ukraine, committing war crimes such as the unlawful transfer of Ukrainian children from the temporarily occupied territories, and perpetrating crimes against humanity in its treatment of the Belarusian people. This decision, made on the eve of the Belarus-US Strategic Dialogue, sends a significant signal about the United States' choice of dialogue partners—those with whom it is willing to engage as partners and respond to their proposals, including sanctions. Conversely, it treats criminals and aggressors as such, with the only possible response to their ongoing crimes being punishment. We firmly believe that engaging with the Lukashenko regime must be from a position of strength and through the utilization of appropriate tools to expedite change in the Republic of Belarus. We hope that our European partners will follow the lead of the United States. Furthermore, we aim to convince the United States and the EU, during forthcoming events, of the necessity for complete alignment of economic sanctions against Russia and the Lukashenko regime, as well as the utilization of international mechanisms for criminal accountability.

Senators in the Ministry of Justice of the Czech Republic are initiating the issue of holding representatives of Lukashenka's regime accountable. Simplifying the legalization of Belarusians in the Czech Republic and holding representatives of the Lukashenka regime to account are the main topics of discussion during the meeting of the Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet Pavlel Latushka and representatives of non-governmental organizations of Belarus with members of the Czech Senate delegation and the Czech Ambassador to Poland Břetislav Dančak as part of the Mitterrand breakfast, the tradition of which was established on December 9, 1988 in Prague. During the meeting, Pavel Latushka made suggestions on the following issues on behalf of the democratic forces: on the need to use tools of universal jurisdiction within the framework of Czech legislation to prosecute persons guilty of repression against the Belarusian people; on the importance of using the "Magnitsky Act", adopted by the Czech Parliament in order to implement national sanctions of the Czech Republic against representatives of the Lukashenka regime; on the non-recognition of the “elections” that Lukashenka's regime plans to organize in February 2024; on the possibility of releasing Belarusian political prisoners. The senators and the ambassador of the Czech Republic expressed their readiness to work through the issues raised by the representatives of the democratic forces of Belarus, which were discussed during the meeting. The head of the Czech delegation, Senator Raduan Nwelati, informed that he will hold a meeting with the Minister of Justice of the Czech Republic, during which he will emphasize the importance of using the tools of universal jurisdiction and solving the problems that prevent the use of this tool. Also, proposals on the use of the "Magnitsky Act" in the Czech Republic for the application of sanctions, as well as the possibility of appointing a special representative of the Czech Republic for Belarus, will be submitted to the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The issue of the legalization procedure for Belarusians who are forced to leave the territory of Belarus due to repressions and need to be granted the status of political refugees and simplify the procedure for issuing documents for Belarusian citizens who have problems related to the expiration of their passports was discussed separately. The topic of importance of improving procedures and opportunities for obtaining visas for citizens of Belarus was also noted. The Mitterand breakfast was also attended by representatives of the National Academy of Sciences, the Belarusian Press Center, ISANS, CBS, the Belarusian House in Warsaw and Euroradio. Pavel Latushka thanked the Czech side for supporting independent media, and also noted the importance of the fact that the Czech Senate was one of the first European parliaments to recognize the KGB and GUBAZIK as terrorist organizations in February 2023.

On December 4, the tragic story of a 15-year-old Ukrainian girl Arina Yatsuk and her family was published. Arina and her parents were killed by the Russian military during the invasion of Ukraine from Belarus. According to Arina's younger sister who managed to survive, she was still alive but severely wounded in the thigh when she was taken by the Russian military, supposedly for treatment in Belarus. Arina's fate remained unknown for almost two years, as her relatives tirelessly searched for information. The truth was finally revealed when her body was exchanged and returned to Ukraine. It had been in the morgue in Mozyr all that time and was identified through DNA analysis. The Lukashenko regime's behavior in this matter is reprehensible. Despite inquiries sent to them and the Belarusian Red Cross Society, they failed to provide any information about Arina's fate. This further highlights the lack of respect for human rights in Belarus. The Lukashenko regime disregarded Arina Yatsuk's right to dignity, neglected to investigate the cause of her death, despite clear indications that Arina died as a result of an unlawful attack on civilians, and failed to notify her grieving relatives who held onto hope that she was still alive. The question arises: can the perpetrators be brought to justice? Firstly, Arina, along with her parents and many others who lost their lives during the Russian invasion in Northern and Central Ukraine, are victims of the crime of aggression committed by Lukashenko and the top military-political leadership of his regime. If Lukashenko had not allowed the territory of Belarus to be used for the Russian invasion, it is likely that Arina and her parents would still be alive today. Lukashenko could be held responsible for this crime if a special tribunal is established to address the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Secondly, Arina's relatives are also victims of the crime of enforced disappearance. This crime involves depriving relatives of information about the fate of the disappeared person and is committed with the involvement of government agencies, in this case, those controlled by Lukashenko. Such a crime may constitute a crime against humanity, falling under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.

Pavel Latushka emphasized the significance of the Resolution “For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family,” adopted by the German Bundestag on November 7, 2023. This resolution outlines Germany's policy strategy towards Belarus, including support for the democratic forces in Belarus, the democratic choice of the Belarusian people, and the European aspirations of Belarusians. During a meeting with Matthias Lutenberg, the political director of the German Foreign Ministry for Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia, possible approaches for implementing the Bundestag's decision were discussed. Pavel Latushka presented the resolution on the European choice of Belarusians, which was adopted at the “New Belarus” conference on August 6, 2023. Matthias Lutenberg confirmed Germany's commitment to maintaining sanctions pressure on the Lukashenko regime. This includes preventing the lifting of restrictions on the supply of potash fertilizers, which the European Union considers a significant instrument of influence on the regime. The head of NAM (National Anti-Crisis Management) highlighted the importance of rejecting the upcoming so-called elections scheduled by the regime for February 2024. Additionally, the meeting delved into potential options for the release of political prisoners in Belarus, particularly in the context of the upcoming Olympic Games in 2024. Pavel Latushka provided updates on the measures taken by the NAM team to disseminate information to international institutions regarding war crimes committed by the Lukashenko regime and its collaborators, specifically concerning the illegal displacement of Ukrainian children. A separate discussion focused on potential mechanisms for holding Lukashenko and his accomplices accountable for crimes against humanity perpetrated against the Belarusian people. The German Foreign Ministry expressed its readiness to facilitate communication with the German Ministry of Justice to address issues of responsibility and develop joint initiatives to ensure that those responsible for committing crimes are brought to justice.

Report of the National Anti-Crisis Management On August 6, 2023, the democratic forces of Belarus adopted a political declaration, wherein one of the strategic goals is to withdraw from all alliances with the aggressor, the Russian Federation. One of these alliances is the so-called Union State. To enhance the awareness of Belarusians regarding the nature of the Union State, the NAM team, with the support of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, has prepared a report titled "The Union State as a Tool for Covering Up Russia's Imperial Policy." This report contains an analysis of a number of legal acts of the Union State, an analysis of public statements by government officials in Russia and Belarus on the topic of the Union State, as well as an analysis of publications by Russian experts and analysts on this topic. The Union State as an integration project of Russia and Belarus has long been considered by many experts as a kind of phantom. Indeed, for almost 20 years since the signing of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State, the processes of integration of Belarus and Russia have been taking place almost unnoticed. On the 20th anniversary of the project, the Russian side made an attempt to intensify activities to create a “full-fledged” Union State, but in 2019, for a number of reasons, including Lukashenko’s reluctance to go for deeper integration without preconditions in the form of lower energy prices, opening Russian markets for Belarusian goods, compensation for Russia’s “tax maneuver”, it was not possible to implement the plan. However, after the events of 2020, Lukashenko, putting the desire to maintain his power above the interests of Belarus, increased the dependence of the Belarusian state on Russia. The logical result of this was the signing on November 4, 2021 of 28 integration programs of the Union State, as well as the updated military doctrine of the Union State - thus, Russia has achieved its goal that it set for itself back in 2019. Under the guise of the Union State, the next stage of strengthening the influence of the Russian Federation on Belarus began to take place. At the current stage, it is obvious that it was important for Russia provide an additional springboard for the offensive in Ukraine, as well as support for Russian aggression from Belarus. At the same time, the format of the Union State was considered as a platform for the future absorption of conquered territories and the formation of a new empire, which is simply impossible without Ukraine and Belarus. This report aims to reveal and demonstrate the Union State as an instrument of Russia's imperial policy towards Belarus. Considering the evolving context, the analysis of the Union State's role requires updating and further discussion both within the expert community and in Belarusian society. This report will stimulate public discussion to shape a perception of the Union State in the Belarusian discourse that accurately reflects the threats and challenges it poses, as well as the importance of maintaining the independence of the Republic of Belarus. Under the leadership of Lukashenko, Belarus poses an immediate security threat to at least four European countries (Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) due to its position within Russia's sphere of influence. Moreover, the Union State has not provided significant economic benefits for the Republic of Belarus. In fact, numerous economic conflicts have arisen within the framework of bilateral relations between Russia and Belarus. However, the Russian Federation has utilized the Union State as a facade to pursue its military-political and domestic political objectives. While the Union State lacks recognition as a subject of international law, it serves as a guise for Russia to increase its influence in Belarus and justify its aggressive imperial policy. It can also be speculated that based on the rhetoric surrounding the Union State, Vladimir Putin plans to garner support and secure his victory in the 2024 Russian presidential election by presenting himself as an advocate for territorial expansion. Consequently, the groundwork is being laid for the integration of Belarus' party-political system into the party system of Russia, potentially leading to the unification of party representation in the parliaments of both countries. This process is likely to culminate after parliamentary elections in Belarus and Russia. This could pave the way for direct political "integration" within the Union State through the establishment of the Parliament of the Union State, aligning with statements made by regime representatives in the media who can be considered, to some extent, ideologists of the Union State. For example, Lev Krishtapovich, a pro-government philosopher and teacher at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Belarus, responded to the question "How do you envision the future development of the Union State and cooperation between our two peoples?" by stating, "In my opinion, we should focus on implementing the Treaty on the Union State, rather than modernization. This entails creating union authorities, union currency, union citizenship, and establishing the Union State as a recognized entity within the international community. In short, we should build a fully-fledged Union State." For the independent Republic of Belarus, denouncing the Union State treaty will not have significant negative consequences strategically, as the project itself has not yielded substantial results for the treaty parties during its 25-year existence. Meanwhile, Russia employs the Union State project as an instrument of its imperial policy aimed at eroding the independence of the Republic of Belarus, which poses an existential challenge to Belarusian statehood. Summary 1. The Treaty on the creation of the Union State in 1999 did not result in the establishment of a tangible state entity, nor did the Union State bodies become fully functioning state institutions. An analysis of the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State reveals its contradiction with the Constitution of Belarus. The primary objective of the Union State project is to bring the post-Soviet space back under Russia's sphere of influence, including the consolidation of occupied territories in Ukraine. The ideology of the Union State revolves around illiberalism and the notion of the "Russian world." 2. Military-political integration holds a significant position within the framework of the Union State's activities. Under the guise of the "Union Resolve 2022" exercise, an invasion of Ukrainian territory occurred from the Union State's territory. Although Putin and Lukashenko's plans to "take Kyiv in 3 days" were unsuccessful, their ultimate goal of undermining Ukrainian statehood and eventually incorporating the occupied territories into the Union State remains unchanged. Lukashenko's subsequent complicity in aggression against Ukraine aligns with the military doctrine of the Union State, which was updated in November 2021. 3. With the implementation of the Union State project, military-economic and military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Russia has intensified. The Belarusian military-industrial complex now plays a crucial role in the functioning of the Russian military apparatus. The Lukashenko regime actively supports Russia's systematic efforts to modernize its army, develop new weapon systems, localize military production, and enhance its personnel and industrial capabilities. 4. The advancement of the "integration" process within the Union State has been hindered by Belarus's well-established civil society, which is committed to preserving the country's independence. In 2021, Lukashenko initiated the dismantling of civil society structures. Against this backdrop, various organizations created by the Lukashenko regime, as well as Russian public associations and Kremlin-funded foundations, have become more active within Belarus. This paves the way for the emergence of a pseudo-civil society within the Union State, which could facilitate the eventual absorption of Belarus by Russia. 5. Efforts are underway to establish a revamped political system in Belarus, which would serve as a foundation for deeper "integration" in the future. The party-political system of Belarus is being modeled after Russia, leading to a convergence of party representation in the parliaments of both countries. This development could potentially lead to the establishment of the Parliament of the Union State. 6. Despite extensive propaganda efforts, there has not been a significant increase in support among Belarusians for the idea of closer integration with Russia. Belarusian society rejects the imposed Union State project by Moscow. Currently, the Union State does not hold the status of a fully recognized subject of international law; it is employed as a cover to expand Russia's influence in Belarus. Denouncing the Treaty on the Union State will not strategically bring negative consequences for the Republic of Belarus, but rather the opposite, as the Union project itself has failed to yield significant positive outcomes for Belarus as an independent state. The full report can be read here:

The head of NAM, Pavel Latushka, participated in the XXI Minsk Forum in Berlin. During the event, Pavel Latushka delivered a presentation: I believe that everyone gathered here in Berlin shares a strong desire for the Minsk Forum, as its name suggests, to be held in Minsk. Today, our goal is to discuss the possibilities of returning the Minsk Forum to Minsk. This requires the will of the Belarusian people, but we also need the support of our partners. Belarus has numerous partners and even allies; however, unfortunately, there are only a few active allies who are willing to collaboratively develop and implement a strategy for Belarus. The only country that has a well-defined strategy and systematically carries it out is the Russian Federation. The objective of this strategy is to dismantle Belarus and eradicate the Belarusian ethnic group. The main tools employed for its execution are the Kremlin puppet Lukashenko and his regime, as well as the so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia. Lukashenko is dismantling Belarusian-oriented forces, civil society, and the democratic segment of society, while Russian forces exploit the void created by the regime. Should we reiterate these facts? Yes, we should. Not everyone here experiences the daily realities of the information space in which we, Belarusians, live. Over the past three years in Belarus, more than 60,000 citizens have been detained, and approximately 20 have lost their lives or perished in prisons. Presently, thousands of political prisoners languish in Belarusian penitentiaries, over 1,400 non-governmental organizations have been dissolved, and all opposition political parties and independent media have been liquidated. Within Russia's strategy, the puppet Lukashenko undermines the Belarusian language and culture, banning both authors and works, including those of Belarusian literary classics. Monumental art glorifies Russian historical figures, rewriting the country's history and shifting away from the historical ties between the Belarusian people and the European space, towards complete subjugation to the Russian empire. Systematic actions are underway to obliterate Belarusian European presence within the country. I pause here. We have warned our partners about this situation in both 2020 and 2021, and as a diplomat, I know that these records exist in your archives. Nevertheless, the responsibility ultimately lies with us. I would like to express my appreciation for the adoption of the Bundestag resolution "For a Democratic Belarus in the European Family" by the German Bundestag on November 7, 2023. This document is of utmost importance, representing Germany's strategy towards Belarus. It sets an example for European parliaments, and I hope that our main partners will adopt similar documents. I extend my gratitude to the deputies of the ruling coalition and, particularly, to Mr. Robin Wagener, the head of the Bundestag group on Belarus, who is present here today, as well as the German Foreign Ministry. Based on this resolution, what can we achieve together? We can establish a joint working group to outline specific steps. I apologize for my bureaucratic approach, but without such a framework, this document will remain nothing more than good intentions. What tools can we utilize as part of this strategy? 1. Instrument of international criminal responsibility It is imperative to issue an arrest warrant against Alexander Lukashenko for committing a war crime, specifically the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children from temporarily occupied territories, similar to the action taken against Vladimir Putin. To this end, the People's Anti-Crisis Administration has prepared and submitted two parts of the Communication titled "On the illegal deportation or transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied territories to Belarus" to the ICC prosecutor in The Hague, in accordance with Article 15 of the Rome Statute. Furthermore, in mid-November 2023, a report titled "Belarus' Cooperation with Russia in the Systematic Deportation of Ukrainian Children" was published by the Humanitarian Research Laboratory at the Yale School of Public Health. This report, from a reputable and authoritative organization, substantiates all the facts previously presented to the ICC. Another crucial aspect is the report by the Justice Center for Law and Democracy Hub, supported by the NAM, which contains information about the Lukashenko regime's commission of mass crimes against humanity. It is essential to initiate the consideration of this case at the ICC. Since May 2020, over 136,000 Belarusians, including women and minors, have become victims of crimes committed by the Lukashenko regime against humanity. These crimes include illegal imprisonment, torture, murder, rape, serious forms of sexual violence, violent disappearances, persecution, and deportation. The Justice Report by The Hub provides a comprehensive legal analysis of these crimes and, most importantly, a detailed action plan for engaging relevant mechanisms of international criminal justice, such as the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, the establishment of a special international criminal tribunal for Belarus, and the application of universal jurisdiction. Holding Lukashenko personally accountable for international criminal responsibility and issuing an arrest warrant against him will politically undermine Lukashenko and send a signal to his entire circle that it is possible and necessary to remove him. This represents a critical tool for implementing a strategy to divide the elites. Lukashenko has remained in power for 30 years, during which numerous forced disappearances of political opponents, murders, violence, hijacking of a civilian aircraft, migration wars, and effective support for aggression against Ukraine have occurred. Lukashenko has evaded accountability. Without accountability, the motivation of Belarusians to fight for democracy will diminish. Democracy can prevail in Belarus only when accountability is established. 2. Elections in Belarus Equally important is the non-recognition of the so-called parliamentary elections planned by Lukashenko for February 2024. Non-recognition should be implemented preemptively, even before the elections take place. This step will send a clear signal to the system that "turning the page" in international relations is impossible until the system rids itself of the dictator and engages in dialogue with democratic forces in Belarus. 3. Sanctions What needs to be done in this strategic direction? Firstly, it is crucial to harmonize economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus for their military aggression against Ukraine, thereby closing any existing loopholes in the sanctions regime. However, it is important to maintain sanctions specifically targeting the potash industry. Additionally, exceptions to current sectoral sanctions should be eliminated. To further strengthen the effectiveness of sanctions, the best course of action would be to completely halt the movement of goods across the border with Belarus, with the exception of essential commodities and medicines. Secondly, sanctions should be imposed on the use of the US dollar in settlements with Belarus and on the importation of US banknotes into Belarus, following the example set by the European Union with the euro. Thirdly, efforts should be made to identify and freeze the foreign assets belonging to Lukashenko's family and associates. This particular task would require the involvement of the American side. Increasing the economic cost of keeping Lukashenko in power should become a critical factor for the regime. 4. Tools for preserving the independence of Belarus and the Belarusian identity At all levels, it is essential to officially condemn and adopt a firm stance against Russia's attempts to undermine Belarusian independence through the implementation of the "Union State" project. This project must be clearly defined as a scheme aimed at hybrid annexation of Belarus, posing a direct threat to its independence and sovereignty. Furthermore, any agreements signed by the self-proclaimed and illegitimate "president" Alexander Lukashenko, as well as any agreements signed with illegitimate authorities, should not be recognized. To preserve the Belarusian intellectual elite, the project of establishing a National Belarusian University abroad should be implemented. Additionally, the number and funding of grant programs aimed at preserving, supporting, and developing Belarusian national culture, education, and self-awareness should be increased. 5. Simultaneously with the aforementioned actions, there is a need to actively utilize and enhance counter-propaganda tools, independent Belarusian media, and provide new technological solutions for Belarusians to access accurate information within the country. Advertising budgets should be increased to promote the content of independent media and other organizations engaged in active information work and combating propaganda. 6. Political prisoners A recent discussion in the Kyrgyz Republic highlighted the priority issue of political prisoners. To address this, I propose a specific measure: the participation of a pro-government delegation of Belarusian athletes in the Olympics in Paris should be contingent upon the release of political prisoners in Belarus. Furthermore, provisions should be made to enable the participation of free Belarusian athletes who oppose the regime. Implementing this approach requires nothing more than the will to act. Of course, there is no guaranteed strategy that will work in all circumstances. However, without a strategy, nothing will work at all. Let us set a specific goal, select an appropriate joint strategy, and take the necessary practical steps. Let us utilize all these tools to strive for national harmony in Belarus, transforming the image of an independent, free, democratic, and European Belarus from a mere concept to a tangible reality. Thank you for your attention. Long live Belarus!

The decision to suspend the membership of the Belarusian Red Cross in the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has come into effect. However, it is important to note that the decision was made earlier, back in October. At that time, the Belarusian Red Cross was presented with an ultimatum or a proposed solution that could have prevented the suspension of its membership in the International Federation. No new decisions have been made; this is essentially the automatic implementation of what was previously approved by the International Federation. The decision is a result of the consistent policy of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, an authoritative organization that upholds the principle of not compromising the reputation of the movement. Reputation is a crucial element of any organization's work, especially for influential international organizations like the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement. Therefore, actions that in any way tarnish the work of the entire international movement are strongly condemned. The IFRC has demonstrated its commitment to monitoring compliance with internally established rules by all organizations. The Belarusian Red Cross Society, currently under the control and management of the Lukashenko regime, which violates the fundamental principle of independence, has encroached upon the core foundations and values of the international movement. Thus, the Federation's decision is significant—it showcases how an organization consistently follows its norms and principles. However, we must remember that Mr. Dmitry Shevtsov openly expressed support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, visited the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk, admitted to supporting the illegal movement of Ukrainian children to Belarus, and endorsed the placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus. All of these statements and actions violate the main principles of the organization. Furthermore, the Lukashenko regime has once again demonstrated its disregard for international organizations, their principles, rules, and standards, particularly when it comes to the independence of activities within Belarus. The regime has clearly exhibited its influence, pressure, and the Belarusian Red Cross's affiliation with the regime in its actions. The suspension means that the Belarusian Red Cross loses its rights as a member of the IFRC. Any new funding for the Belarusian Red Cross will also be halted. In fact, funding has already been suspended since October, and there will be no new contributions. Additionally, the Belarusian Red Cross will be unable to participate in the IFRC General Assembly, vote, or be elected in any statutory meetings. The IFRC strongly advises its members against entering into new partnership agreements with the Belarusian Red Cross, effectively depriving the BRC of its primary source of funding for its activities. It is important to highlight that the IFRC statement emphasizes that if there is a need for humanitarian assistance to Belarus—should such a situation arise—the IFRC will prioritize the principle of providing humanitarian support.