Some 300−500 fighters from Belarus are helping to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression. Belarusian dissidents hope the resistance in Ukraine will spread to their own country. Opposition leader Pavel Latushko calls for tougher European Union sanctions against dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Berlin. Just days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the first reports of volunteers from Belarus moving into the neighbouring country to help defend themselves against Russian aggression appeared on social media. Meanwhile, according to Belarusian opposition leader Pavel Latushko, two Belarusian units are already operating as part of the Ukrainian armed forces. One of them is the Kastus Kalinouski battalion, named after the 1860s Belarusian national hero, and the Pagonya regiment. "Kalinowski's battalion includes volunteers who have already taken part in combat operations in Donbass in 2014," reports Latushko, formerly Belarus' minister of culture and now head of the opposition organisation National Anti-Crisis Administration (NAU) in Warsaw. The Pagonya regiment also includes reserve officers of the Belarussian armed forces and officers of the Belarussian special forces. "Both units are fighting for Ukraine’s independence, but at the same time for Belarus' independence," Latushko told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND). Many Belarusian dissidents hope that the Ukrainian resistance will spread to Belarus in order to get rid of Russia’s dictate and overthrow dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power in Minsk for 28 years. "The Lukashenko regime is a puppet government of Moscow that oppresses the Belarusian people and submits to the interests of the Kremlin," Latushko stresses. Alexander Friedman, a historian specialising in Eastern Europe who hails from Minsk and lives in Berlin, believes the existence of the Belarusian volunteers is also important from a "historical point of view". "These fighters save the honor of Belarus and show that not everyone is a supporter of Russia," Friedman says. Most Belarusians are against this war, he says. "People say it’s a disgrace." But the courage and pathos of the volunteers may obscure the fact that the terms battalion and regiment are rather symbolic and say nothing about the real strength of the units. A battalion is made up of 300 to 1,200 men, while a regiment may consist of four battalions. Friedman estimates that the total number of active Belarusian fighters in Ukraine is currently between 200 and 500. However, Belarusian opposition politician Vadim Prokopyev is firmly convinced that there could be more of them in a short time: "There is no doubt that we could create a regiment of 1,000 men relatively quickly," Prokopyev told RND. The former catering businessman, who also received military training in Russia in the past, is now in charge of the Pagonya regiment in Ukraine and trains volunteers, most of whom arrive via the Polish border. "The problem is logistics; volunteers can only join us in small groups because they all have to cross the border separately," Prokopyev says. Currently, it is very difficult to obtain an exit visa from Belarus. Therefore, most Belarusians come via Poland, Lithuania or Latvia, where they fled earlier. In addition, the Ukrainian side has a fear of spies, which delays the admission of fighters. In Belarus itself, resistance also continues. Because Lukashenko has made the entire country available to the Russian army as a deployment area, including airports, logistics centres and hospitals, the first acts of sabotage took place just days after the Russian attacks on Ukraine began from Belarus. "We call it a railway war," says Prokopyev, referring to a series of attacks on the distribution and relay stations of the Belarusian railway network. Thus, since the start of the war, there have been at least seven documented attacks on various sections of track in Belarus, which have resulted in stopping or at least significantly slowing down the transport of Russian troops and equipment. In addition, railway workers and dissidents have destroyed signals, damaged tracks and carried out hacking attacks. In response, Lukashenko tightened the protection of railway hubs by KGB units. On the eve of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, rockets were fired from Belarus at Ukrainian territory around 11 p.m., which Lukashenko himself later admitted. Although so far Belarusian troops have not officially intervened in the war, Pavel Latushko has long believed it was time to address the "Lukashenko problem" and called on the European Union to tighten sanctions. "What else does Lukashenko have to do to make Europe hold him accountable?".

A terrible war has been raging in the heart of Europe for a month and a half now. A war that Putin’s Russia has unleashed against Ukraine. A war where the international community is seeing the genocide of the Ukrainian people. And the key launching pad for this war is Belarus — under the illegitimate dictator and military aggressor Lukashenka. An aggressor that for some reason the international community today prefers to ignore. How was it possible that the usurper Lukashenko, who had become "famous" to the whole world after he lost the elections of 2020, forcibly retained power and staged the bloodiest and most mass repressions in the modern history of Belarus with the direct support of Putin, now handed the territory of the country under military control and occupation by Russia, provided it with a springboard and all the necessary infrastructure to start and wage war against Ukraine — and bears no serious responsibility for it? How is it possible that the military aggressor — who himself has openly admitted that without his participation the war with Ukraine would have been impossible — today seems to have become virtually "invisible" to the anti-war sanctions that the US and EU impose package after package against Putin and Russia, but somehow bypasses the occupied Belarus, led by Putin’s puppet Lukashenka? Instead of being held accountable for his numerous, now war crimes, Lukashenka has become the gauleiter of Putin-occupied Belarus and the owner of a country-sized offshore that arose from the failure to apply similar sanctions against Belarus as those applied against Russia. By turning a blind eye to the "invisible" Lukashenka, the international community is letting him make money from the war, letting him help Putin circumvent sanctions through the Belarusian offshore — in effect paying the military aggressor, instead of cutting off his access to any external funding altogether. But this is not the first time in the last two years that the civilized world has chosen not to notice the crimes of the aggressor Lukashenka and to provide him with the resources to carry them out. June 2020. Belarus issues USD 1.25 billion worth of Eurobonds on the London Stock Exchange. The issue is guaranteed by Citi, Raiffeisen, Société Générale and Renaissance Capital. All this was happening on the background of the election campaign — and even then the first facts of the beginning of repression in the country were recorded. At that time, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s husband Siarhei Tsikhanouski and Viktar Babaryka were already sent to prison. Already then the Lukashenka regime began throwing Belarusians behind bars, beating and torturing them for the first protests against repression. And it was quite obvious that sanctions would follow. However, both the facts of the crackdown and the potential threats of sanctions were ignored and not reflected in the prospectus of the Belarus Eurobonds. Which in fact was, on the one hand, misleading of investors, and on the other, direct financing of gross human rights violations in Belarus. 1.25 billion dollars — Lukashenka received this money and is still using it to continue his crimes against humanity — not only against Belarusians, but also against Ukrainians. August 2021. The IMF’s decision on the historic allocation of special drawing rights totalling $ 650 billion comes into force. Belarus' quota in this allocation was almost USD 1 billion. Election fraud, mass repressions and tortures in Belarusian jails, hundreds of officially recognised political prisoners, the killing of peaceful protesters, the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in Minsk, the start of the migration crisis on the Belarus-EU border, which eventually evolved into a real hybrid war by Lukashenka against the EU — all this was an objective and documented reality, against which Lukashenka received 1 billion dollars in SDR from the IMF. Despite the broad public outcry, despite the efforts of the Belarusian democratic forces and the diaspora, as well as European parliamentarians, US senators and congressmen who supported these efforts to prevent the allocation of these funds, they were allocated and transferred to the SDR account of Belarus in the IMF. And if 1 billion does not seem like a lot to others, for Lukashenka at the time, receiving these funds, and without any commitment, meant an increase in foreign exchange reserves by more than 14%. Not to mention the fact that the very fact of having access to IMF resources was one of the key conditions for issuing Eurobonds, the total amount of which was $ 3.25 billion at that time. In practice, by giving Lukashenka that billion in SDRs, the IMF not only financed his many crimes — but also saved him from defaulting on his Eurobonds. And even though the EU and the US have stated that Lukashenka will not be able to convert the SDR received into euros or dollars — he had and still has the possibility to sell them to, for example, Russia, China or any Arab country. Access for the Lukashenka regime to the SDR account of Belarus in the IMF has not yet been blocked. So today we can also say that these funds not only helped Lukashenka to stay afloat financially, but also became a source for financing his joint military aggression against Ukraine with Putin. This was also stated by the leadership of the National Bank of Ukraine on 2 March, when it called on the IMF and G7 to block funds for Belarus and Russia from the SDR distribution and to boycott the delegations of both countries. It all seems like a kind of fantasy. An inexplicable paradox. But there is an explanation — it is the wide-eyed civilized world that has allowed Lukashenka to become "invisible". There is a solution. The world simply needs to open its eyes. And to see Lukashenka — the insane dictator, international criminal and military aggressor — so as to finally bring him to the full justice he has been avoiding all this time.

NAM Head Pavel Latushka in an interview with TV Apostrophe Lukashenko wants to act as a guarantor in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and he himself demands security guarantees. The sanctions are getting tougher, the regime has less money, and Putin is in no hurry to fulfill the promises he made. How can a country act as a guarantor of security, from the territory of which rockets are launched into Ukraine. What guarantees does the regime require if Ukraine has never planned and does not plan to attack Belarus? Belarusian resistance to the regime continues and expands. Under the risk of detention and torture, Belarusians are waging a rail war, holding protests, carrying out public intelligence, and distributing samizdat. Belarusians who fled the regime abroad a year ago are now helping refugees from Ukraine.

NAM representative Valery Matskevich on the air of Ukraine 24 channel Belarusians will not allow Lukashenka's dream of the regime's involvement in a ground operation against the Ukrainian people to come true. The rail war forced Lukashenko to use almost the entire internal troops to guard the railroad tracks. We are receiving signals again and again that the Belarusians are doing everything possible to prevent Russian equipment from entering Ukrainian territory so easily. For this, they are not only detained and tried, but also tortured — already detained partisans are deliberately shot in the legs, aiming at the knee joints. And even the threat of being subjected to such atrocities does not stop Belarusians. The horrors that are happening in Ukraine now are happening on a smaller scale in Belarus as well. There are facts of rape and looting committed by the Russian military. Ultimately, war criminals will not evade responsibility, they will face a tribunal. But for justice to prevail, each of us must do everything possible for our common victory.

At the invitation of the German Buchenwald-Dor Mittelbau Memorial Foundation, Pavel Latushka today took part in the memorial ceremony for the victims of the concentration camp in Buchenwald This event took place on the eve of International Day for the Liberation of Prisoners of Nazi Concentration Camps. Due to the aggression of Russia and the Belarusian regime against Ukraine, building peace and freedom of our peoples is now more important than ever. The Foundation has decided not to invite diplomats from Russia and Belarus to the ceremony, noting in a statement that “after the violent death of former Buchenwald prisoner Boris Romanchenko during the Russian attack on Kharkov, the presence of official representatives of the rulers of Russia and Belarus would be unbearable.” "For me, the very presence, as well as the opportunity to speak today in Buchenwald, is a moral duty and a response to dictators who have forgotten about the greatest tragedy of the 20th century,” said Pavel Latushka We will sack our barracks only then, kali aposhni from the winery of the country before the court of the people — a phrase from the oath, which was read out by Pavel Latushka in Belarusian in memory of the dead prisoners of the concentration camp in 77th Anniversary his release. Together with a representative of the democratic forces of Belarus, representatives of the civil society of Ukraine and Russia read out the oath. Pavel Latushka laid a wreath with a white-red-white ribbon at the monument. The wreath with the historical symbols of Belarus was ordered by the organizers of the event on their own initiative. In his speech to the participants of the ceremony, the head of the Buchenwald Foundation gave a fundamental assessment of the aggression against Ukraine unleashed Russia with the support of the Lukashenka regime. A separate part of the ceremony was dedicated to the memory of Boris Romanchenko, one of the former prisoners of Buchenwald, who died in Kharkov after being shelled by Russian troops. Pavel Latushka met with the head of the memory fund Buchenwald-Dora Mittelbau Jens-Christian Wagner . During the meeting, the representative of the democratic forces of Belarus noted that since the first days of the war unleashed by Russia and the Lukashenka regime against Ukraine, 1.5 thousand citizens of the country who took part in anti-war actions have already been detained in Belarus. Actions were held in more than 25 cities of Belarus. In an interview with the German media, Pavel Latushka paid special attention to the fact of mass repressions carried out in Belarus. The Foundation decided not to invite official representatives of Russia and Belarus to the ceremony, noting that their presence would be “unbearable” due to the death of former Buchenwald prisoner Boris Romanchenko under shelling. The representative of the People's Embassy of Belarus in Germany Mikhail Taube took part in the ceremony together with Pavel Latushka.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair is closely following the war between Russia and Ukraine and has thanked Pavel Latushka for his timely and useful briefing on the role of the Lukashenko regime in the military conflict. As part of the "Putin's puppet, Alexander Lukashenko, must be punished" campaign, the People’s Crisis Group sent arguments and evidence of the Lukashenko regime’s complicity in the military actions against Ukraine to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been closely following the tragic events in the region, he agreed with the arguments presented by the NAM and is already taking steps to deter the Lukashenko regime from engaging in an active phase of the ground operation and escalating the conflict even further. Sir Tony Blair described the appeal as timely and useful, and looked forward to receiving further information about the situation in Belarus from the NAM team. The NAM team had previously received responses from former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). Article 'Putin's puppet, Alexander Lukashenko, must be punished' in world media: "The New European" (United Kingdom) — translation of article "IL FOGLIO" (Italy)

NAM head Pavel Latushka in an interview to Ukraine’s Channel 24 about Lukashenko’s controversial statements at the Security Council meeting The absurdity of Lukashenko’s statements stems from the fact that he is in utter confusion. It is difficult for him to find a way out of the situation in which he has found himself due to his short-sighted policy. First he decides to directly participate in the war against Ukraine, and now he is trying to evade responsibility. It is worth noting that he calls what is happening a war and not a special operation, which contradicts the official position of his handler Putin. Trying to become a negotiator, he appeals to the thesis of the democratic forces that his regime is a puppet of the Kremlin and is not capable of implementing independent policies and does not represent the interests of Belarusian society. In what status can he be present at the negotiations? Certainly not as a mediator. The only role he can have at the negotiating table is that of co-aggressor, which he is from the point of view of international law. And the only question he can solve with the Ukrainian side is the question of reparations. As long as Lukashenko is in power, there can be no security guarantees for either Ukraine or the European Union. He is already threatening hostages, recalling that the Ukrainian ambassador is still in Minsk, and there are many Ukrainians living in Belarus. If anyone should speak on behalf of Belarus at the negotiations, it is the representatives of democratic forces. Those whom the absolute majority of the Belarusian society entrusted to represent their interests after the elections of 2020. Lukashenko should sit not at the negotiating table, but in the dock of a tribunal.

By Pavel Latushka, Exiled Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador, the Main Opposition to Belarus dictator Lukashenko article for The New European There is one leader in Europe who has been in power even longer than Vladimir Putin. Alexander Lukashenko. There is one leader in Europe even more corrupt than Putin. Alexander Lukashenko. There is one leader in Europe who oppresses and tortures his people even more than Putin. Alexander Lukashenko. There is one leader in Europe who has managed to crush all domestic opposition to his dictatorial rule even more successfully than Putin. Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for twenty-seven years, at the end of which Putin, Russia’s ruler for twenty-two years, is his last remaining ally in Europe. He, in turn, plays the same role for Putin. Lukashenko has allowed Putin to turn Belarus into a Russian puppet state, and in the process has become Putin’s puppet leader. Turn on the TV or radio anywhere in the world right now, surf the internet to find out who and what is making news, and the name Putin is everywhere. Putin, Putin, Putin. The whole world is talking about Putin, and of course it is accurate to call this Putin’s war, which is how it is being characterised around the world. But Lukashenko is very much his partner-in-crime. And I choose those words carefully. His partner-in-crime. One criminal helping another, by allowing his country to be used at a platform for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, by providing political and military support as Putin orders the missiles to be fired on schools, hospitals and kindergartens, as he seeks to subjugate a proud sovereign nation to his will. Putin has rightly been condemned the world over. But Lukashenko deserves far more global opprobrium than has come his way. He may be Putin’s pawn. But he is also a major player in this horror show, and it is time the West realised it, and acted accordingly. Both of these monsters need to be held to account. My name is Pavel Latushka, and I am writing this article from political exile in Warsaw, the capital of Poland, currently welcoming vast numbers of Ukrainians fleeing war. I am in exile because after the rigged Presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020, I spoke out against the stolen votes, the corruption and criminality, the violence and torture used against those who dared to call out the election fraud for what it was. From having been a minister of culture in the regime, and having served as an Ambassador overseas, I was now labelled a terrorist, and faced seven trumped up criminal cases against me, one of which carries the death penalty as punishment. My 27-year-old daughter, Yana, also has a trumped up criminal case against her, and my cousin, Anatoly, is among the 1,100 political prisoners currently being tortured in Belarus. It goes without saying all our assets have been seized by the state. All main Opposition figures are either in jail, or abroad. It is of course impossible to prove a historical counter factual one way or the other. But while Putin is now viewed as a war criminal the world over, I believe the case can be made that he would not have been in the position to launch the invasion, and plunge the world into such chaos, without his partner-in-crime joined to his hip. And if either of them genuinely believed in democracy, of course Lukashenko would now be history. Sviatlana Tsikhanousaya would now be President and she would have opposed Putin’s illegal war, whereas Lukashenko helped to launch it. There is not an independent election observer or opinion pollster on the planet who believes Lukashenko defeated Tsikhanousaya, let alone by the huge margin awarded by the Electoral Commission — its members personally appointed by Lukashenko — which announced he won with 81% of the vote. Unsurprisingly, people who knew their election had been stolen, took to the streets. Unsurprisingly, the protests were brutally crushed. Hundreds were tortured. Many were raped. Briefly, Western leaders and diplomats spoke out, promised to support us in our fight for democratic rights. Then, as so often happens, other issues pressed, the caravan moved on, Lukashenko was allowed to carry on, unpunished by the world, with Putin looking on approvingly. Long before the first tanks rolled into Ukraine, we had gathered a mass of evidence of Lukashenko’s crimes, which we have passed to the relevant authorities, and which must be properly investigated. It was encouraging to see that two former British Prime Ministers from different parties, Sir John Major and Gordon Brown, were forming a coalition of experts to map out the process by which Putin can be brought to justice for his war crimes. Lukashenko must be included in any such case, and I am ready to present our case against him. Lukashenko must be brought to justice. As for current heads of government, there is one important step they can and must take, if they are truly serious about doing everything necessary to bring this awful war to an end, and deliver on their pledge to make Putin fail, and be seen to fail. And that is to apply the same sanctions currently being targeted at Putin and Russia to Lukashenko and Belarus. Personal sanctions, sectoral sanctions, broader economic sanctions. It is the right approach for Russia. It is the right and necessary approach for Belarus. Just as Putin lies, and has others repeat his lies for him, so too does Lukashenko. But when it comes to the war, he has condemned himself from his own mouth, finding it impossible not to boast that he had been the first to order the attack on Ukraine, by launching missiles from Belarus at 23:00 on February 23 onto Ukraine, some five hours before Putin’s troops crossed the border. Missiles, attack helicopters and fighter jets have all been launched from Belarus onto Ukraine. Lukashenko must stand in the dock with Putin. The Russian President may have initiated this war, but by giving his troops a platform for invasion, Lukashenko has facilitated it, not least by shortening the route to Kyiv for those troops. The Russian border is 250 km from Kyiv, the Belarusian border 180 km. Western brands are rightly coming under pressure to stop dealing with the Russian market. They need to take the same approach to Belarus, and politicians, media and public need to press them to do so. Otherwise, believe me, for all the self-congratulatory talk about the toughest possible sanctions on Russia, you are leaving a massive loophole, allowing Belarus to become an offshore zone for Russia, meaning Russians still have access to all these Westerns brands. Why am I so sure of this? Because that’s exactly what happened in 2014, when certain sanctions were imposed on Russia after they annexed Crimea. Let me give you a particularly ridiculous example. Under the sanctions regime, the supply of seafood from western ports to Russia was outlawed. Lukashenko imported seafood to Belarus, changed the label and sent it on to Russia. Belarus was exporting shrimps galore. Problem solved; Lukashenko’s cronies pocketed millions. A reminder … Belarus is landlocked. We have no sea. We have no seafood. Be in no doubt the same tricks and more are being pulled now. Lukashenko’s corrupt business cronies will get richer, and he will have more money to fund the repressive state apparatus, not least to deliver on his recently announced pledge to increase spending on police, intelligence and security services. The West risks making an enormous error if it fails to see that Belarus must be treated in the same way as Russia when it comes to sanctions. Not to do so presents him with the opportunity to make money from the misery he and Putin are inflicting on their neighbours in Ukraine, as he exploits this offshore role. It also allows him to continue to provide Russia with the territory to carry out military actions against Ukraine and thereby "pay off" his former debts to the Kremlin. For the proof, again look to their words and actions — on Sunday the Belarussian Ministry of Finance announced their debt repayment to Russia has been postponed by five years. See it for what it is … payment by Putin to Lukashenko for his participation. Lukashenko is a co-aggressor in the war against Ukraine, and it is time the West treated him as such. Before the war in Ukraine my team at National Anti-Crisis Management collected evidence that would classify Lukashenko as an international terrorist. How else to describe the May 2021 hijacking of a Ryanair flight from Greece in order to get exiled Belarus journalist Roman Protasevich back on home ground, where he could be punished and silenced? Again, briefly, international opinion was outraged. Again, briefly, the leaders of the major countries of the world expressed anger and promised action. Followed by symbolic non-detrimental sanctions. Again, no accountability. Again, the caravan moved on. Likewise, the very deliberate creation of a migrant crisis on the Belarussian border with the EU last November, all done with Putin’s help; again, widespread outrage, again followed by symbolic sanctions which made for a few headlines, but little impact, and again, no accountability. On these and other incidents, including evidence he ordered mass repression through torture, intimidation and jailing of protests after the rigged election, with the help of a Polish lawyer, we delivered 40,000 pages worth of evidence to the International Criminal Court in The Hague last month. This evidence has been received; no investigation has yet started. This too we intend to disseminate more widely as we seek to awake the world to the need to understand Lukashenko is an integral part of the Putin War Machine. I am grateful to The New European for giving me the opportunity to make this case. We will be sending this article, with the evidence we have gathered, to the leaders and diplomats of the major powers at the United Nations, and to media around the world. The West needs to understand Lukashenko is a serious player in Putin’s war games. The West needs a serious response; prosecution for past crimes; sanctions for his current crimes. Anything less is playing his, and Putin’s game. The people of Ukraine, and the people of Belarus, deserve better.

The word "occupation" is perceived in the mass consciousness as something that has arisen as a result of war. Maybe this is why Europe and the United States prefer not to notice Russia’s de facto non-belligerent occupation of Belarus. But it is no longer possible to ignore its consequences today. After all, if the occupation of a country in the very center of Europe is ignored for a long time, it will eventually lead to war anyway. Even if the occupation that preceded it had occurred without a single shot being fired. In the past occupation was viewed as a result of the military actions between the states and therefore it was called "belligerent occupation". But the events of the 20th century demonstrated that the link between occupation and war is not indispensable — it could be a result of a threat to use force in order to make the other government to concede effective control over its territory to a foreign power or an outcome of the agreements concluded between "strong" and "weak" states. This tendency was confirmed in the provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War of 12 Аugust 1949 that extends the regime of occupation "to all cases of partial or total occupation of the territory of a High Contracting Party, even if the said occupation meets with no armed resistance". This phenomenon can be defined as the effective control of a State over a territory to which that State has no sovereign title, without the will (volition) of the sovereign of that territory. Contemporary practice shows that occupants prefer not to establish direct administration. In the second half of the 20th century the outlawing of war provided incentives for invaders to act through their proxies and avoid direct responsibility. They would rather make use of the existing structures of administration or try to set up a puppet government. In this case they would tend not to acknowledge the applicability of the law on occupation to their own or their proxies' activities and would deny any international responsibility for them. On the basis of the above-mentioned doctrine provisions, it could be concluded that Belarus has been subjected to the "non-belligerent" occupation by the Russian military forces with the default consent of the puppet government of the illegitimate Lukashenko, which has led to the evident loss of the sovereignty in the political and military spheres ("the authority of the legitimate power having in fact passed into the hands of the occupant" - Article 43 of the Hague Convention of 1907). What are the signs of a de facto non-belligerent occupation of Belarus by Russia? 1) The occupier (Russia) controls the occupied territory and uses it for its military purposes; 2) There is no visible indication that Lukashenko can impede any action by the Russian army; 3) Russia uses the "acquiescence" of Lukashenko’s puppet government, which has no legitimacy, to cover up its actions and to avoid giving Belarus the status of occupied territory; 4) The start of the occupation took place without a declaration of war — the occupier was covered by formal legal grounds (military exercise plan, membership in the CSTO, Union State); 5) International treaties and arrangements that were used as formal grounds for the deployment of troops were subsequently grossly violated (the army of the Russian Federation remained on the territory of Belarus after the end of the military exercises and subsequently attacked Ukraine). These actions suggest that the Kremlin originally planned to use the territory of Belarus to invade Ukraine. As a result, the territory of Belarus was used for an aggressive attack on a third country, although neither the Treaty on the Union State nor the Collective Security Treaty, to which Belarus is a signatory, provides for the engagement in wars of aggression. Neither does the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, nor its Military Doctrine. Besides it was a violation of the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborhood and Cooperation, concluded on 17 August 1995 between Belarus and Ukraine, under which inviolability of their borders was recognized, and the subsequent Treaty on the State Border between Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus of 12 May 1997. 6) At the time of the occupation Lukashenko was not recognised by the civilized world as a legitimate president after losing the elections in the summer of 2020 and maintained his power in the country de facto illegally. How was it possible that in the twenty-first century the occupation of a European country took place without a single shot being fired? In August 2020, A. Lukashenko lost the election to democratic candidate S. Tsikhanouskaya and retained power by force of arms. After hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in peaceful protest against the stolen election — Lukashenko unleashed the most massive repression in modern Belarusian history. Dozens of people have been killed, thousands are in prison, tens of thousands have gone through torture in prisons, and hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have left the country for fear of persecution. The only country among Belarus' neighbors that recognised Lukashenko as president and helped him hold onto power was Russia. Without Russia’s support he had no chance of making it. After losing the presidential election, Russia announced that it was "ready to provide military assistance" to Lukashenko to keep him in power. For the Belarusians this effectively meant a threat of military invasion. And given that it is well known in Belarus that after the victory of democratic forces in Ukraine Russia invaded its Eastern regions and unleashed a war that killed 14,000 people, the threat was very real. Now, in 2022, the Russian army is on the Belarusian land. It is also important to note that after the European sanctions had been imposed, Russia helped and continues to help the Lukashenko regime stay afloat financially by creating conditions to circumvent the sanctions and by actually sponsoring Lukashenko. It is now clear that the purpose of all these investments was to gain possession of the territory of Belarus as a springboard for the attack on Ukraine. Just as it is obvious that without the possibility of free access to the territory of Belarus and without such a bridgehead, Russian troops would not have been able to invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus by the shortest route to Kiev and would not have been able to strike at the center of Ukraine with aircraft and missiles from the shortest possible distances. But the danger of the Russian aggression using the Belarussian bridgehead threatens not only Ukraine. Not only propaganda, but also Russian state officials themselves are already directly talking about the possibility of an attack on Poland and Lithuania from the territory of Belarus. May these words be seen as empty threats? Perhaps, but the experience of 2022 has shown that any threats from Russia should be treated as real if it has a physical possibility to realize them. And this possibility is determined by where the Russian army is at the moment of the threat. And now it has already come close to the borders of the EU through the territory of the occupied Belarus. So far they have only attacked Ukraine, where tens of thousands of people have already died and more are dying every day, where a number of Ukrainian cities have simply been wiped off the face of the earth. But even if there is a truce (or peace) between Russia and Ukraine and the hot phase of the conflict stops — will anything change in terms of regional security in Europe? No, absolutely not. Obviously, Russian troops will not leave Belarus until they are forced to do so. They will stay and pose a constant threat to the European Union and Ukraine. Nevertheless, no one even thinks of making demands to the Kremlin for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus. Why? Simply because there are allegedly no grounds for it — after all, Lukashenko says everywhere that he "voluntarily invited the Russian army". And everyone seems to have already forgotten that he has no right to invite anyone on behalf of the Belarusians — after all, he lost the elections and retained power only by force of arms and Russian money against the will of the absolute majority of Belarusians. Was it possible to avoid this? Of course it was. If the EU and the US had been as active in helping the Belarusians in their struggle for freedom as they are now helping the Ukrainians, there might not have been a war in Ukraine. We could have avoided tens of thousands of casualties. If the same sanctions had been imposed on Lukashenko as are now being imposed on Russia, he would not have retained the power. Today, this is openly confirmed by Lukashenko himself, who openly states that if the "Maidan" had succeeded in Belarus, Russia would not have been able to launch an operation in Ukraine: "There was a desire to cut off here and draw a red line for Russia. Ukraine was already there, Belarus had to be put next to them. And the operation (Russian invasion of Ukraine — editor’s note) could not have been carried out when the two republics would have been crushed by them (Western countries — editor’s note)". — Lukashenko said during a meeting with Melnichenko (governor of Russia’s Penza Oblast) on 31 March. What should be done first to remove the threat to the EU presented by the Russian troops in Belarus? It is necessary to realize the fact that without Lukashenko in power, Putin would not have obtained a springboard for an attack on Ukraine. To realize that in order to take action: 1) Recognise Belarus as a territory occupied by Russia. This would allow as a first step to demand the withdrawal of the Russian troops from Belarus. 2) Place Lukashenko and his government in international isolation, excluding all its representatives from international relations. This would prevent Russia from using Lukashenko’s puppet government, which sends politically motivated requests for wanted persons to Interpol and uses its voice at the UN to promote Russian propaganda narratives. 3) Warn that further use of the Belarusian territory for aggression, and not withdrawing the Russian troops would entail even tougher sanctions than have been imposed on Russia. This would force Lukashenko to reconsider the risk-benefit ratio with regard to trading the territory as a springboard for an attack on the EU. 4) Make clear that no action infringing upon Belarus' sovereignty will be legally enforceable, and avoid the annexation of Belarus. 5) Prevent steps announced repeatedly by Russia — and confirmed by Lukashenko’s puppet government — to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. Without these actions, any ceasefires or peace agreements will only move the military conflict in Ukraine from an active to a waiting phase. With the Russian troops on the territory of Belarus, there remain threats of new aggressive actions not only against Ukraine… Mikhail Kirilyuk Legal Affairs Officer of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Member of the Coordination Council Pavel Latushka Member of the Presidium of the Coordination Council, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador, ex-Minister

A bloody war has been raging in the heart of Europe for a second month already. On 24 February, Russia attacked Ukraine and one of the key springboards for the attack was the territory of Belarus. In the course of active military operations on 16 March the National Anti-Crisis Management, the leader of which I am, made an official statement stating that Belarus was under Russian occupation and that Lukashenko’s regime was a puppet government fully controlled by the Kremlin. On 17 March, Svetlana Tihanovskaya voiced a similar position during her speech at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. Belarus must be recognized as a temporarily occupied territory — this is the united position of the leaders of the Belarusian democratic forces. Both Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and I, we stress that this step is extremely important to stop the Russian aggression and ensure security in the region. Why weren’t such statements by the leaders of the Belarusian democratic forces made before? It was with the outbreak of the war against Ukraine that it became obvious that the regime of the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko had lost control over the territory of Belarus, which is the most important sign of the sovereignty of any state. With the full assistance and connivance of Lukashenko’s illegitimate government, military control of the Belarusian territory passed to the Russian Federation, which needed it for military purposes. And the fact that Lukashenko has allowed Putin to occupy Belarus without firing a single shot, indicates only that his regime is not only illegitimate, but also non-self-governing and a puppet. However, this in no way cancels the very fact of such occupation, which in the modern world is called hybrid and non-belligerent. And international recognition of this fact is the starting point for dealing with its worst consequence — aggression against Ukraine. How may the international recognition of Russia’s occupation of Belarus help stop Russian aggression? It is a colossal mistake to believe that in the current circumstances Belarus can be seen as a country pursuing an independent policy capable of resisting the influence of the Kremlin on its territory. It is this mistake that underlies the failure to apply external pressure measures to Belarus in the same way as to Russia. The sanctions applied to Belarus today are an order of magnitude weaker, which has already led to the emergence of the "Belarus offshore", which allows the Kremlin to partially circumvent the sanctions and its puppet Lukashenko to actually make money from the war. And this is the first contradiction that must be resolved by recognising Belarus as an occupied territory and the marionette status of the so-called Lukashenko government. By imposing sanctions on Russia and Belarus it is necessary to stop treating the two countries in isolation from each other and acknowledge the fact that the Belarusian economy today works just as much for the war as the Russian economy and ensures the existence of Lukashenko’s proxy government, which has provided and continues to provide Putin with a key springboard for his war with Ukraine as well as the ability to partially circumvent sanctions imposed on Russia. The second important aspect of the international recognition of the occupation of Belarus is the creation of an incentive to transform the anti-war movement of the Belarusians into a national liberation movement — with its subsequent international legal recognition. For example, the Belarusians are already waging a "rail war", which limits Russia’s ability to use the Belarusian railways for the transportation of troops and armaments. However, for actions of resistance against the occupiers to be interpreted as a legitimate struggle of the Belarusians for liberation, it is necessary as a first step to recognize the fact of the occupation of Belarus by Russia, which would certainly promote the determination of the leaders and participants of this struggle. Furthermore, under international law, recognition of the occupation of the territory of any country provides a legal basis for requiring occupiers to leave it unconditionally. For the time being, the international community is only limited to demanding that Lukashenko stop allocating the Belarusian territory to the Russian Federation, which is essentially "empty noise", given the Kremlin control over him and lack of independence in making such decisions. Moreover, ignoring the fact of the occupation of Belarus also restricts the civilized world in its influence on Russia, including in terms of preventing the placement of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, the indefinite deployment of Russian army, aviation and missile bases and units, and the prevention of other security threats. Thus, we firmly believe that the recognition of Belarus as an occupied territory is one of the most important steps towards ending the war in Ukraine as soon as possible and countering the Russian aggression and the threats it poses throughout the European region. As long as Lukashenko’s pro-Kremlin puppet regime operates in the center of Europe and as long as Russian occupier troops remain in Belarus — neither Ukraine nor Europe will be safe. Pavel Latushka, Member of the Presidium of the Coordination Council, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador, ex-Minister

What it is, how Belarusians do it and what impact it has on the economy — Could you first describe how important the Belarusian railway is to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? This is crucial because it is the railways that bring armoured vehicles into Belarus, which are subsequently used in the offensive against Ukraine. Large ammunition and missiles are also transported only by rail. —What do you know about acts of sabotage on the railway? What is the scale of these activities? Partisan sabotage on the Belarusian railways is organised by activists of the movement in order to obstruct the movement of military trains. Signalling equipment has been destroyed in three Belarusian regions, and railway tracks have been blocked. According to BYPOL (an association of Belarusian strongmen who went into opposition amid the 2020 protests), the operation disrupted several branches of the Belarusian railway. Russian Railways has banned the movement of its rolling stock, including military trains, through Belarus at night, and Belarusian locomotive drivers are refusing en masse to operate locomotives and take to the tracks. We know of 15 such actions so far, but we believe there are many more. — How can the opposition movement in exile support these actions? Informationally, through the use of underground initiatives such as cyber partisans, the coalition of protest courtyards, and the distribution of underground press (informal production and distribution of newspapers) among citizens. In essence, we have a multi-level system of resistance. Political support, a national liberation movement must be created. It is wrong to discuss the status of Belarus while Lukashenko’s puppet government is in power and Belarus is under occupation. —Belarus has a history of sabotage on the railway (during World War II), can you tell me anything about that? In June 1943 the Central Committee of the Communist Party (Bolsheviks) of Belarus adopted a decree "On Destruction of Enemy Railway Communications by the Railway War", which proposed a plan to destroy railways in a simultaneous mass strike in order to make it impossible for the enemy to quickly restore the railway tracks. The rail war was to be accompanied by derailment of trains, explosion of bridges and destruction of station installations. Partisan units that fought in the occupied territories widely used elements of the rail war. I.e. This method of fighting is in the Belarussians' blood. — Railway sabotage will affect world trade and the Belarusian economy. Isn’t that a problem? We put the moral and ethical aspect above the economic one. It is with this equipment and weaponry that civilians and children are being killed in Ukraine. Each detained echelon is probably dozens of lives saved. The economic costs in this matter seem to me to be secondary, the main thing is to save more lives.

An interview by Pavel Latushka for the Polish edition of Interia.pl Original article in Interia.pl Latushka: Lukashenko is afraid for his life. There are two generals who may overthrow him. — Putin wants to draw Belarus into the war against Ukraine. If there is a democratic coup in the country, Moscow may intervene militarily. Russia is already putting pressure on Lukashenko. From the information we have, we know that there are several generals in the Security Council of Belarus who are in direct contact with the Russian General Staff," former Minister of Culture and Belarusian Ambassador to Poland Pavel Latushko told Interia. According to him, a Belarusian government in exile may be established in Warsaw. Marcin Makowski, Interia: is Belarus officially under Russian occupation? Pavel Latushka, former Minister of Culture and Ambassador of Belarus: — Yes. Our lawyers and diplomats working for the National Crisis Management have analyzed in detail the current situation from the perspective of international law and practice. We are convinced that at present Belarus is under temporary military occupation by the Russian Federation. Alexander Lukashenko, for his part, is the head of a puppet government in Belarus, subordinate to the Kremlin. In fact, he has lost control over most of the state. He has no influence over what the Russian troops do. What are the practical consequences for the Belarusians themselves? — Fundamental. The legal recognition of the country as a territory under temporary occupation guarantees its territorial integrity. The thing is that Belarus or its part cannot be ceded, for example, to Russia or become one of the republics. Moreover, recognition of the occupation means that no agreement signed by Lukashenko with other entities will be recognised in the international arena. Who then will make political decisions on behalf of the state? — For a year now, we have been urging Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya that we need to establish a Belarusian provisional government in exile. Our appeals finally found fertile ground, and a few weeks ago, Ms. Tsikhanouskaya expressed her wish to create such a body. At the moment, we are working with her office to form the first cabinet, which would cut Lukashenko off from the world. It is also necessary to form a Belarusian national liberation movement. The government and the movement will be the basis for the restoration of state institutions in Belarus. How would a government in exile function? — We need real action, not a "shadow cabinet". I believe that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya should be the head of the government, and the most important ministries — foreign affairs, defense, finance, economy and regional policy — would be created. We are talking about representation of interests of Belarusians in the world on quite specific issues. When the question of security guarantees for Ukraine is raised, who else, on behalf of sovereign Belarus, should apply for the withdrawal of Russian troops from our territory? In the long run, when the day of the collapse of Lukashenko’s regime finally comes, we will be ready to proceed to the political and administrative management in the country. So far you have mentioned one name with a democratic mandate. Who would form the rest of the government in exile when elections cannot be held? — It would include representatives of institutions recognised in the West — including the aforementioned National Anti-Crisis Management, associates of Tsikhanouskaya and members of the Coordinating Council. This does not mean that other initiatives would not be represented or allowed in the composition and work of the government. We must build the broadest possible coalition of democratic forces. Where will the main office of the Belarusian government-in-exile be located? — This is a logistical question. Symbolic, I think. One does not preclude the other. The National Anti-Crisis Management Office is based in Warsaw, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office is in Vilnius. I don’t know if the government will have one seat, but there could be two. In Poland and Lithuania. Do you think Lukashenko is aware of the situation he is in? Does he know that he cannot govern Belarus anymore? — I think he knows that his life is in danger. He is struggling not to preserve the remnants of Belarusian sovereignty, but for his political existence. Even temporarily, because he is in direct dependence on Vladimir Putin, which was clearly visible during the rigged constitutional "referendum" at the end of February. You speak of the political vassalisation of Belarus, but how is this to be understood militarily? Russian troops are standing in your country, missiles are falling from its territory to Ukraine, but the Belarusian army is not going on the attack together with the Rosgvardia. — So far, the Belarusian army doesn’t have to go to war, because the country’s territory itself is an important strategic asset for Russia. Lukashenko recently confessed at a meeting with a Russian governor that if he had not retained power and suppressed democratic protests, there would have been no "special operation". I agree here. Without Belarus it would have been virtually impossible to attack Kiev. That is why, when I meet with foreign politicians, I always say that without Lukashenko this war would not have happened. This is a crime of the two regimes, and both must be surrounded by a thick wall of sanctions. Alexander Lukashenko was preparing for a Russian offensive against Ukraine back in 2021, when he began provoking Poland and destabilizing the eastern flank of NATO in a hybrid way — by destabilizing the border. I am also aware that a provocation in the form of a simulated attack by Ukraine on Belarus was planned in order to create a legal basis for a counter-offensive from the territory of an "allied country". Why didn’t it happen? — Because Lukashenko, like Putin, did not have full information about the condition, discipline and morale of his army. Many commanders did not want to go to war, there was a great risk that the order to attack from the ground would be ignored. Then what? Before the war, military intelligence in Belarus analyzed the moral state of the troops in terms of their motivation to go to war with Ukraine. This document was presented to the Security Council in Minsk and its conclusions were ambiguous. Many commanders showed no initiative or desire to fight. If we add to this the current situation, i.e. Russian losses in men, equipment and ammunition — the reluctance for war in the Belarusian army has only increased. As far as we know, most lower and middle-ranking officers and junior cadres do not want to enter Ukraine. Lukashenko’s nightmare is the scenario where part of the army arms itself on enemy territory or organizes a military coup in Minsk. Do you think Russia, despite internal resistance, could force Belarus into war? Such a threat is real. Putin is already putting pressure on Lukashenko. From the information we have, we know that there are several generals in the Security Council of Belarus who are in direct communication with the Russian General Staff. Do we know their names? — Yes. For example, there is the Secretary of State of the Council, General Alexander Volfovich. He was born in the Soviet Union in Kaluga, then graduated from the Moscow Higher Military Command School, the so-called "Kremlin School". He later made a career in Belarus. Volfovich and his men have very good contacts with Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. Volfovich is one of the "shadow generals" who can be used if Lukashenko is to be overthrown. The other is Pavel Muraveiko, a friend of Wolfovich’s, also after "Kremlin". There are more such people, who can act in the interests of Russia, in the Belarusian army. As these names have reached us in a confidential way, and now they will reach the media, they are probably on Lukashenko’s desk too. I’m not talking about taking responsibility off him. He is a criminal who brought the whole country into this situation by his own decisions. What could be the future of Belarus if the war with Ukraine was suspended? Would Moscow need the regime in Minsk? — As long as it maintains a stable internal situation, like in prison, and obeys the orders of the Kremlin — it will remain in power. These are the two factors that guarantee its future. If any of this falters, there is a risk of a coup. However, this situation is not a stalemate for the Belarusians. Two Belarusian military units, independent from the regime, have already been established in Ukraine — volunteers and former officers, including those from special units. These individuals pose a real threat to the regime. As the military and economic situation in the country deteriorates, discontent is growing. On Thursday, 31 March, 38 railway workers were detained, accused of sabotage against Russian troops. Cyber-guerrillas are working, leaflets are being distributed, the Peramog plan has been created, a group of former prosecutors and investigators — the Baypole initiative — are all ready for the day when power is restored. These are real instruments of action. But do the people also have the will to resist when street protests have been brutally suppressed? — Unfortunately, Lukashenko has managed to intimidate the public, but not all. Time is working against him because sanctions, similar to those in the case of Russia, will sooner or later hit Minsk too. We are in contact with the former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown who is forming an international coalition of former prime ministers and presidents to launch criminal proceedings against leading politicians and the Russian military. We are doing our best to make sure that Alexander Lukashenko and his generals are among those names. We act in such a way that his life will not be easy. Do you know anything about his mental state, his routine, his inner circle? — Our contact with his special services informs us that in the recent weeks Lukashenko’s personal guard has been strengthened by 30%. He fears not only assassination attempts but also attacks with hand grenades when he travels in the country by helicopter. He no longer flies close to the country’s southern border. His helicopter must be accompanied by one or two military helicopters — as a human shield. I don’t think he sleeps well with this realisation. Let’s assume for a moment that there is a ceasefire in Ukraine and a democratic overthrow of power in Belarus. Could Russia intervene militarily in such a situation? — This is a realistic scenario and our biggest problem and threat. Therefore, wherever possible, we call for one thing — to include the postulate of withdrawal of all Russian troops from Belarus into the peace talks. What peace with Ukraine will be, how reliable the security guarantees will be, when the Russians still have tanks a day’s journey away from Kiev. Without an independent Belarus, Ukraine will always be in danger. Putin will not simply let us go, but when a million people come out to celebrate in the streets of Minsk after Lukashenko’s overthrow, will he dare to order an attack? Why do you think the West largely ignores Belarus when imposing sanctions against Russia? — I think this is a consequence of a strategic mistake made by the EU and the USA in 2020, when not only in cities, but also in villages, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians risked their lives and health protesting against Lukashenko’s regime. No sanctions or pressure were immediately imposed then, and the West did not do everything in its power to bring a democratically elected president to power. If that had happened, perhaps we would not be talking about the war in Ukraine today. Meanwhile, the West, two years later, is stuck in the same mistake — focusing all its attention on Moscow, without noticing that it is easier to deal with Belarus at the same time, causing a domino effect that could stop the war. Most Russians are for Putin and the war. Most Belarusians are against the war and Lukashenko. It is enough to draw conclusions. Why western strategists don’t make them — I don’t know. But you can guess? — But I can guess. Before the war, we submitted to the Hague the documents, collected by the Belarusian opposition — 40 thousand pages — proving the crimes of Lukashenko’s regime. Torture, murder of people, mass repression, aeroplane hijacking, hybrid warfare with the EU. Now there is complicity in armed aggression. What else do they need? I ask as a politician of the democratic forces of Belarus. What arguments should we use, if even this is not enough?