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NAM Deputy head, Artsiom Brukhan, in an interview with "6TV Biełaruś" channel, stated: "The Constitution now stipulates that presidential elections should take place 'no later than' a certain period, but nothing is said about 'no earlier than.' Early elections for Lukashenko make political sense. Reformatting of the system is taking place in one way or another — the reassignment of the All-Belarusian Assembly, the Parliament — and its logical conclusion should be the presidential election. Three scenarios should be considered: The first scenario is that he will run in the 2025 presidential elections in July, according to the latest possible deadline. The second scenario can take place in February 2025. Lukashenko held "no-choice elections" in February 2024. We saw that the society went through strong repressions, the field was cleared — so the elections were held in silence. Why not hold the same kind of election in February 2025? It's cold outside, people take a break after the Christmas holidays, nobody needs anything — the most ideal situation for a dictator to hold elections. The political calendar in the West is just beginning to function; people in Russia have not yet come to their senses after long holidays. The third scenario — if the "presidential" campaign of Lukashenko's speeches is already underway, it is quite logical that the election will be organized in the near future, for example, in the summer. Not in August — the month of August still brings up painful memories in people. But, as an option, elections can be held in July — the month when Lukashenko came to power 30 years ago. He really likes this symbolism, so this option also has a right to exist.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Speech by Pavel Latushka during participation in the festive events in Warsaw on the occasion of Freedom Day: National consciousness is our weapon and our shield. This is the reason why we, Belarusians, a relatively small nation (compared to the Eastern Empire, next door to which we were "lucky" to exist in quotation marks) - managed to save itself, managed to survive, despite centuries of Russian-imperial and Russian-Soviet occupation. In spite of violent Russification, in spite of terror, in spite of everything. We rebelled, suffered defeats, and rebelled again. Our leaders and our national elite were executed on the scaffold, shot at night in Kurapaty, and yet we rose again. Our statehood was destroyed, but we rose again. It was national consciousness that brought more than 1,800 delegates from all over Belarus to Minsk for the first All-Belarusian Congress 107 years ago. And despite the fact that the congress was dispersed by the Bolsheviks, a few months later, the BPR, the Belarusian People's Republic, was declared and formed—the first independent Belarusian national state. Because that was the will of Belarusians. At least those who managed to keep their national consciousness, who did not lose hope, and who were determined enough to seize the historical moment and opportunity of that time. 106 years have passed since that date, March 25, 1918. But that seed of national consciousness, that seed of desire for our own statehood, having survived the Bolshevik terror, the Stalinist repressions of the 1930s, Kurapaty, and the decades of the USSR, that seed let sproot. The truth about Kurapaty, the first Chernobyl Pass demonstration, the national rise and movement of the late 80s and early 90s, the proclamation of the Republic of Belarus. And then, unfortunately, Lukashenko came to power with the support, once again, of Russia. The beating of deputies of the Supreme Council, shameful referendums, murders of political opponents, "integration" with Russia, the formation of the Union State. But the resistance of Belarusians continued. Election protests “Ploshcha 2006” and “Ploscha 2010”, demonstrations of “parasites”... And finally, the revolutionary events of 2020, which, contrary to the ideas that existed at that time about the secondary nature of the national component of the protest, were held under the national white-red-white flag. And what do we have today? Yes, there is backlash and mass terror in Belarus. There are thousands of political prisoners. There are more than 136,000 victims of the Lukashenko regime's crimes against humanity. There is a war against Ukraine, in which Lukashenko's regime is participating on the side of Russia against the will of the Belarusian people. There is a new threat to our independence and the very existence of our statehood from Russia through the activities of the pro-Kremlin Lukashenko regime. But we still have our national consciousness. We have the will for freedom. The will for independence. Both inside Belarus and outside its borders, because the Belarusian diaspora does not lose this will and consciousness even in forced emigration. And we have the support of the civilized world. And I thank all our partners for this. I thank the authorities of Poland, where we are today, for all the support that Belarusians receive on your land. But most importantly, I thank all Belarusians, wherever you are today, for not giving up, not surrendering, and continuing the struggle. Everyone is in their place and acts to the extent of their capabilities. Thank you for not losing our national consciousness, for not losing our language, for preserving these precious grains from which Belarus has repeatedly risen, even in the face of the most difficult challenges. And of course, I pay homage and express gratitude to our partisan heroes for stopping the movement of Russian trains. I thank our heroes from the Kalinouski Regiment, who have been defending Ukraine from the Russian invasion for 2 years. My eternal gratitude, honor, and glory goes to Belarusian heroes, living and dead. Our country and our nation have seen many difficult times. But we continue to live. Our consciousness continues to live. Our will continues to live. And Belarus continues to live. Belarus lives and will definitely be free. Free and independent. Happy Freedom Day! Long live Belarus!

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador Instead of assisting those in need, the regime focuses on providing jacuzzis and saunas for the dictator. Such characteristics exemplify the regime's approach to social policy. Despite regime propaganda claiming that Belarus is a socially oriented state, this definition has been nothing more than a propaganda tactic for many years. Today, we will shed light on how Belarus is moving away from social orientation and who benefits from this shift. The Belarusian state finances social needs through the annual budget, which is adopted each year. Currently, the regime of an illegally empowered dictator is responsible for distributing this budget. The policy of budget distribution, primarily funded by our taxes —the taxes of Belarusians — clearly demonstrates Lukashenko's true priorities. This is the first point we will discuss today. Let's examine the budget structure more closely. Part of Belarus' social spending includes allocations for healthcare, education, and social policy, totaling slightly over 7 billion rubles in 2024. These funds are intended to finance expenses, including assistance to vulnerable segments of the population. Now, let's compare this figure with some expenditures that are not directly related to the social sphere. For instance, more than 30 billion rubles have been collectively allocated for national activities, national defense, and the judicial and security system. This amounts to over four times the allocation for healthcare, education, and social policy. Why does such an imbalance exist? Are Belarusians truly living so well that the main issues to be addressed revolve around the functioning of the state system and the security apparatus? This is a rhetorical question because the answer is obvious: Lukashenko's objectives do not lie in improving the well-being of the Belarusian people but solely in preserving his own illegally retained power, including through the use of force. Consequently, the majority of the state budget is allocated for these purposes. This is the primary reason why Belarusians in dire circumstances, who require state support, receive assistance in smaller amounts. Let us consider the example of pensions for children with the most severe disabilities (4th degree of health loss). From February to April 2024, these payments amount to slightly over 440 Belarusian rubles (approximately 125 euros). Now, let's compare this with the salary of a police officer in the Minsk department of the Security Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus. The minimum salary for such a position starts at 2,000 rubles. Thus, the minimum salary of a police officer in Belarus is equivalent to four and a half pensions for children in the most severe disability group. This is despite the fact that employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs enjoy various benefits and privileges, and despite the bloated nature of the power apparatus in Belarus. Can we genuinely consider this a socially oriented state? At the same time, the regime continues to push the underfunded social sphere into a deep hole. A clear manifestation of this can be seen in the widespread elimination of non-governmental organizations after 2020, which is the second point we will focus on today. The unprecedented purge of the non-governmental sector since 2020 has impacted thousands of organizations, including charities and humanitarian ones. Many of them were actively involved in assisting the most vulnerable segments of the population, such as people with disabilities, serious illnesses, low-income individuals, and those without a fixed place of residence. By dismantling this sector, the regime has stripped away support from thousands of citizens who fall into these vulnerable categories. The extent of the damage inflicted by the Lukashenko regime on vulnerable segments of the population is difficult to overstate. Take, for example, one of the largest liquidated organizations, the “Names” charity platform, which raised approximately $3 million for charitable purposes during its five years of operation. It received over 200,000 donations from individuals worldwide. With these funds, the platform financed around 40 projects implemented by 30 NGOs in Belarus, providing assistance to at least 50,000 people in need. Yes, at least 50,000 individuals who relied on this help. What did the regime offer society in exchange for the dissolved humanitarian organizations? In reality, nothing substantial. Instead, the regime decided to take control of the charitable sector and consolidate funds for humanitarian needs into a single fund. In 2022, the Ministry of Justice registered the so-called Fund of the First President of the Republic of Belarus, which bears the same name, "Fund of the Prime One". Last autumn, the association of former Belarusian security officials, BELPOL, conducted an investigation into its activities. Of particular interest was its address — 15 Krasnoarmeyskaya Street in Minsk — where Lukashenko's residence, complete with a spa center, swimming pool, conference room, office, and bedroom, is located. Was this fund actually created to serve Lukashenko's personal needs? It's important to note that the registered residence is just one of at least 18 residences belonging to Lukashenko in Belarus and abroad — only the ones known to the public. A logical question arises: can one person sleep in 18 beds simultaneously? Why does he require so many residences? One might argue that they belong to the state, not him. However, in 2020, the Belarusian people made it clear that they do not wish to finance this. Every residence of Lukashenko, even if he doesn't spend the night there, requires protection, maintenance, cleaning, and landscaping. Just imagine the immense amount of money being wasted, all for the sake of providing Lukashenko with (soon, probably in every district) his own recreational residence. This places an enormous burden on the budget, which ultimately falls on us — the Belarusian taxpayers — because Lukashenko does not pay for it out of his own pocket. He claims to be the "poor" or "poorest" citizen of the country. It is the Belarusian people who foot the bill. Those who still contemplate supporting such an individual should seriously consider the cost and whether it is truly worth it. Lukashenko's pension trap is another aspect of the state's lack of social responsibility. We, along with our parents and grandparents, who have contributed to the country's budget through taxes and completed our work experience, have the right to receive pensions from the state. It's important to understand that labor pensions are not a favor granted by Lukashenko, as he often claims. They are a rightful compensation that most countries around the world provide to their citizens who have reached retirement age. Belarusians traveling in Europe often notice that many European tourists in cities like Paris, Rome, Prague, London, and others are of retirement age and have the means to travel the world. However, Belarusian pensioners travel much less frequently, if at all. One of the reasons behind this is the level of pensions received by Belarusian retirees. The pension system in Belarus operates as a distribution system, where the economically active population pays insurance contributions that are subsequently used to pay pensions. The average old-age pension in Belarus in 2023 was just over 700 rubles or approximately 200 euros. Let's consider the situation in neighboring countries such as Lithuania and Latvia, which, like Belarus, are former Soviet Union countries and faced similar economic challenges after the collapse of the Soviet Union. What about pensions in these countries? The average pension in Lithuania is 575 euros or around 2,000 Belarusian rubles. In Latvia, the average pension is 527 euros or nearly 1,900 Belarusian rubles. In Poland, the average pension is about 670 euros or almost 2,400 Belarusian rubles. These figures represent the average amounts, not the maximum pensions. Do you also feel that these numbers highlight the cost of the Lukashenko regime for Belarusians? Moreover, as the working population leaves Belarus and the country's average age increases (already one of the highest among the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States, having approached 42 years), we can only imagine the challenges that lie ahead, particularly regarding pension payments. Where will the funds come from if Lukashenko remains in power? To be fair, it should be noted that costs for utilities and related services are higher in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia — an argument often mentioned in propaganda. However, even accounting for these factors, the situation in neighboring countries appears much better than in Belarus. What could be the reason for such discrepancies? Perhaps it's because the leadership of those countries doesn't divert money from the budget to build multiple residences. Maybe their state policies are focused on improving the well-being of their people, and the governments are accountable to the citizens, unable to carry out the same level of theft as the Lukashenko regime does in Belarus. Could it be that Lukashenko's need for funds to maintain the so-called defense, but in reality, the security apparatus, is what drives him to constantly create threats in the region? Lukashenko is an unparalleled liar in the history of Belarus. His propaganda aims to convince people that they have a good life without actually making their lives better. However, no matter how hard Lukashenko tries, objective factors reveal the true state of affairs. What we are discussing today is just a fraction of the myth surrounding the regime's claim of being a social state. We will undoubtedly address other aspects of this fabricated myth. The propaganda of the Lukashenko regime continues to promote the notion that social policy is its priority. However, the regime's social policy only benefits one person — Lukashenko himself. He is the most expensive "recipient" of social assistance in Belarus. The state budget is focused on preserving his зpersonal power. This can only be halted by abolishing the regime in Belarus.

In an interview with the "Ordinary Morning" channel, NAM Legal Advisor Mikhail Kirilyuk discusses the prosecutor's office's initiatives to tighten parents' responsibility for their children's offenses The current administrative code already establishes parental responsibility for such offenses. However, the proposed criminal liability is indeed an "innovation." It is crucial to consider the potential aspect of political intimidation that these new measures could be used for. Why are these changes being introduced? Is there a significant increase in child crime in Belarus? There is no evidence to support such a claim. Who are the individuals that believe we have such a problem in our country and that it requires separate legislation? These individuals are prosecutors who have not been elected by the people. The issue lies in the absence of a parliament that represents the choices of the population. This is the problem at hand. What can we anticipate from this legislation? In terms of law enforcement practices, we should not expect any fundamentally new strategies, as the overall situation regarding laws in Belarus remains unchanged. The OSCE report in 2020 characterized Belarus as having a legal default, and that situation has not been rectified yet

The formation of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly has begun in Belarus. DW explains who will be part of the new constitutional body and why it will not become an “honorary pension” for Lukashenko, as previously planned Source: dw.com "This is the 7th convocation, but it is special. It is constitutional," stated Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting on preparations for the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA). The nomination process for candidates to the new constitutional body has already begun and will continue until March 31. According to Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, the first meeting of the ABPA will take place on April 24-25. Initially, the ABPA was intended to facilitate the transfer of power in Belarus and serve as an honorary position for Lukashenko. However, under the new Constitution, the All-Belarusian People's Assembly will possess significant powers, assuming some functions of the president and other government entities. These powers include initiating amendments to the Constitution, evaluating the legitimacy of elections, declaring a state of emergency, and even removing the president. How is the nomination process for candidates to the All-Belarusian People's Assembly proceeding, and what role will Lukashenko, who has no intention of stepping down, assign to the new body? The people do not participate in the formation of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly Despite the inclusion of the word "People's" in its name, the people do not have any nominal or actual involvement in the formation of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, notes  Alexander Klaskovsky, political analyst of the Pozirk news agency. "During the February elections (for parliament and local councils–Ed.), although the outcome was predetermined, people still went to the polling stations and cast their votes, thus fulfilling the ritual. However, the All-Belarusian People's Assembly is formed exclusively by governmental officials," explains the expert. In total, there should be 1,200 candidates for the ABPA, with one-third of them being representatives of local authorities at various levels. The composition of the ABPA began immediately after the Unified Voting Day on February 25, and newly elected House of Representatives MPs automatically become delegates of the ABPA. Additionally, members of the Council of the Republic (the upper chamber of the Parliament), who are expected to be appointed soon, will also be part of the ABPA. Members of local councils, who obtained mandates during the elections on February 25, must choose their representatives as delegates to the ABPA. The second third of the ABPA delegates consists of senior Belarusian officials, including Alexander Lukashenko, as well as representatives from the executive and judicial branches. The remaining third is composed of the so-called "civil society." The Ministry of Justice has already identified five public associations entitled to delegate their representatives to the ABPA: "Belaya Rus," the Belarusian National Youth Union, the Belarusian Women's Union, the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus, and the Belarusian Public Association of Veterans. "In a metaphorical sense, the system is retreating into itself. The people have become superfluous. The people, who demanded fair elections in 2020, now frighten and irritate Lukashenko. Thus, he aims to shield this new body, empowered by the new Constitution, even from the indirect influence of the people's will," comments Klaskovsky regarding the principle behind the formation of the ABPA. The ABPA is the "fifth wheel" in the power system When discussions of constitutional reform first began, and the ABPA gained the status of a constitutional body, many believed that Russia was pushing for changes to the constitution to ensure a smooth transition of power in Belarus. It was assumed that Lukashenko would take on the role of chairman of the ABPA, and early presidential elections would be organized – Lukashenko himself did not rule out this possibility. "However, the situation has changed, he was able to solidify control in society and regain control of the state through repressive methods. He no longer needs this transition," says Artsiom Brukhan, an analyst at the National Anti-Crisis Management. According to him, the ABPA has now become "the dog's fifth leg" for Lukashenko, as he fails to understand why such a system should be created, though the initial agreement had to be fulfilled. Brukhan argues that Lukashenko's misunderstanding of the role of the ABPA in Belarus' political system is evident in his statement: "The ABPA must find its place but not interfere with the president." "This means that the body has been created, but Lukashenko is still discussing its essence. There are no plans for a transition now, but they may be considering its use in the future. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he later removes the ABPA from the constitution altogether," adds Artsiom Brukhan. Klaskovsky, on the other hand, notes that the issue of a transition has become irrelevant due to the repression in the country and the full-scale war in Ukraine, which eliminates the need for Putin to change Lukashenko. Additionally, Lukashenko himself is unlikely to want to experiment with a transition, considering the experience in Kazakhstan. The extensive powers of the ABPA create the problem of dual power Given that the constitution grants the ABPA "thermonuclear powers," as described by Klaskovsky, this potentially creates a dilemma of dual power and a competition with the president's functions. "Lukashenko, as an experienced individual, understands very well that a state cannot have two powers. He himself has created a system of dual power, and as a result, he is concerned about which center will gain influence within the nomenklatura," explains Brukhan. According to both analysts, Lukashenko intends to resolve this dilemma in his own way – by assuming the role of the ABPA chairman, as permitted by the constitution, while also holding the position of president. "If, for some reason, Lukashenko is unable to fulfill his duties, then the ABPA could genuinely become an instrument of power struggle, given its broad powers. Lukashenko recognizes this danger, but for now, he pushes these thoughts away, relying on his physical resources and re-election in 2025," says Klaskovsky. The ABPA, similar to the congresses of the CPSU, is not intended for discussions Nevertheless, officials also encounter the challenge of determining the role of the ABPA in Belarus' power system, considering all the circumstances. For instance, Vadim Gigin, the director general of the National Library, suggested incorporating the fundamental principles of the Belarusian state ideology into the ABPA. However, Alexander Klaskovsky holds the belief that the ABPA will not possess any distinctive or exceptional role or functions. "It seems that they simply included this powerful body in the constitution and are now struggling to figure out what to do with it. Hence, the discussions about approving state ideology in the ABPA. It is evident that with the current composition of loyalists and individuals devoted to the leader, expecting any discussions or alternative opinions is quite naive. Everyone will raise their hands in agreement, just like at the congresses of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union," states the analyst. Brukhan suggests that Belarus' democratic forces, who have already criticized the ABPA as undemocratic for consolidating Lukashenko's illegitimate power, should prepare for the next electoral campaign, the upcoming presidential elections in 2025. "We must prevent the regime from carrying out the next campaign calmly and without any problems, as they have planned. After all, silence is the ideal environment for a dictatorship."

Pavel Latushka, deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, head of the National Anti-Crisis Management gave a welcome speech at the solemn event commemorating Freedom Day - the 106th anniversary of the proclamation of the Belarusian People's Republic. "Belarus has its heroes: heroes fighting in Ukraine, Belarusian partisans, and unfortunately, heroes imprisoned. The majority of Belarusians yearn for freedom and democracy. They desire independence and continue to fight for it," noted Pavel Latushka. The event took place on March 21, 2024, at the Free Belarus Museum in Warsaw. Video messages were also delivered by Ivonka Survilla, Chairman of the Council of the Belarusian People's Republic, and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus. Representatives from the Office of the President of Poland, the Polish Sejm and Senate, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, including directors of contractual and legal and consular departments, as well as representatives from the Ministries of Culture, Internal Affairs, Justice, and Sports, attended the event. Ambassadors from Austria, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, France, Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, Estonia, Norway, Ireland, Moldova, and diplomats from other countries, along with a representative from the government of Flanders, were also present. In the congratulatory speech by Piotr Zgorzelski, Vice-Marshal of the Polish Sejm, the shared history of the Belarusian and Polish European peoples and Poland's continued support in the struggle for a free and independent Belarus were highlighted. Krzysztof Śmiszek, First Deputy Minister of Justice of Poland, expressed the Polish authorities' support for the democratic choice of the Belarusian society in his speech at the ceremony. Representatives from independent Belarusian and foreign media, including Belsat, Financial Times, Rzeczpospolita, Radio Racyja, and TVP World, participated in the event. The event brought together members of the Belarusian diaspora, the Belarusian ethnic minority, democratic forces, social activists, and leaders of Belarusian initiatives. Representatives from the Council of the Belarusian People's Republic, members of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, the Coordination Council, associations of Belarusian security forces ByPol and BelPol, the Belarusian Council of Culture, the association of Belarusian political prisoners "To Freedom," and “Partyzanka” were also in attendance. The cultural program of the celebration included a fragment from the show "Words from behind bars" by the theater troupe "Volnyja Kupalaucy," featuring Honoured actress of Belarus Zoya Belakhvostsik, Aleh Harbuz, Siarhei Chub, and Kryscina Drobysh. The Concordia choir, under the direction of artistic director and conductor Halina Kazimirouskaya, and the Warsaw Free Orchestra also performed. The event included the opening of the REVISION 30 photo exhibition by Siarhei and Dzmitriy Brushko, father and son, who documented Belarus's journey of change over the past 30 years. Lawyer Anna Matsieuskaya donated artworks by Yury Stylski, Anton Radzivonau, and Yana Shostak to the Free Belarus Museum. "Today, by celebrating the state holiday of Belarus, not legally but in practice, we must recognize the historical parallel in which Belarus and the Belarusian people find themselves. True nations are forged through trials. We, Belarusians, must fulfill our historical duty. Now is our time to determine the fate of Belarus. We must save our country. It is our responsibility. And we will return, we will undoubtedly return to a free and independent Belarus," emphasized Pavel Latushka during the event. This event was solely financed by the patrons of the Free Belarus Museum.

Keynote points of Pavel Latushka, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus 20 March 2024, Warsaw Dear ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, I am pleased to welcome all the guests - the EU Member States Special Envoys for the Eastern Partnership, and especially Ambassador Dirk Schuebel for organizing the meeting and the opportunity to speak up. We are in the Free Belarus Museum - which not only collects artifacts of protest Belarus of 2020 and beyond, makes exhibitions of Belarusian artists, theater performances, but is also an open socio-political and discussion platform for the entire democratic community. The museum is one of the projects of the National Anti-Crisis Management team, which I represent here. To show you the scale and permanence of repression, which operates like a conveyor belt, we have taken news about arrests, detentions and trials on political grounds over the last 10 days only. As you can see on the screen, all this happens in Belarus every day. New information from Belarus this morning. Detentions, trials - and so on every day. It's been 4 years since the beginning of the events of the summer of 2020 in Belarus. 2 years since the beginning of the war of Russia and Lukashenko's regime against Ukraine. In the context of world history, these years and events are only a moment. But for millions of Belarusians the events of the last years became the biggest and hardest test in their lives. And the longest. According to the human rights center "Dissidentby", as of today there are 1602 officially recognised political prisoners in Belarus. 1082 political prisoners have already served their terms. As you can see, Lukashenko's regime puts new political prisoners in place of those released. At least five political prisoners have already died in prison: Vitold Ashurok, Ales Pushkin, Mikalai Klimovich, Vadzim Khrasko, Igorr Lednik. Torture, inhuman conditions, lack of medical care - this is what political prisoners face in Lukashenko's prisons. And they die. 6 political prisoners are in incommunicado status. The leader of the Social Democrats Mikalai Statkevich has been in incommunicado status for more than 400 days. We know nothing about his fate. According to the report by the Centre for Law and Democracy Justice Hub, from May 2020 to May 2023 at least 136 thousand people became victims of crimes against humanity in Belarus. Illegal deprivation of liberty, torture, murder, rape and other serious forms of sexual violence, including against minors, enforced disappearances, deportations - this is what happens in Belarus. Every day. All independent mass media have been liquidated in Belarus. During these 3.5 years 1500 non-governmental organizations have been eliminated in Belarus, 950 are in the process of liquidation. All 11 political parties have been liquidated. We can state the almost complete destruction of civil society. What is Lukashenko’s power based on To date, Lukashenko has held on to power primarily thanks to the security forces and financial and economic support from the Russian Federation. One of the important factors of the regime's financial sustainability is the use of opportunities to circumvent EU, US and other sanctions through Belarus in the interests of Russia. Smuggling, corruption schemes, as well as actually legal income due to the lack of synchronization of sanctions against Russia and Lukashenko's regime. All this allows the dictator to earn quite a lot of money. The electoral cycle has started in Belarus. First stage. On the 25th of February Lukashenko organized the appointment of deputies to the parliament. We defined this day as a "day with no choice". There were only two candidates for one mandate in Lukashenko's parliament. The forecast of independent political analysts and journalists about whom Lukashenko would appoint to his parliament was 100% confirmed. We proceed from the fact that this institution can’t have international recognition and participate in international parliamentary organizations due to the fact that this body is not a body representing the Belarusian people. Second stage of electoral cycle. On the 25-26 of April Minsk will host a session of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, a constitutional body created by Lukashenko. This body will actually become higher than the parliament. It actually appoints deputies of various levels, judges, prosecutors, representatives of the power bloc, the government, Lukashenko's administration and non-governmental organizations fully controlled by the regime - 1200 members. Lukashenko has created 4 parties, which are not political structures in the general sense of the word, and are fully incorporated into Lukashenko's totalitarian system. The third stage after the establishment of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly will be the election of the President of Belarus, which can take place either in 2024 or 2025. The decision on the date of the election is in the exclusive competence of the dictator. Today we can state that Belarus has a totalitarian system. Lukashenko is under Putin's considerable control and is in fact a puppet implementing policies in his interests. Lukashenko balances the issues of maintaining power inside Belarus, using tools to obtain economic resources from Russia and performing military-political and diplomatic tasks in the Kremlin's interests. Democratic Forces of Belarus We can state a unique situation that has developed among the democratic forces of Belarus. It is unique from the point of view of the history of modern Europe. We actually have three institutions that represent the interests of Belarusians abroad and carry out actions aimed at influencing the internal agenda in Belarus. The first institution is the President-Elect, and at the same time the head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus - Svetlana Tsikhanovskaya. The second institution is the United Transitional Cabinet as the executive body of the democratic forces, which I have the honor to represent today. The third institution is the Coordination Council. Preservation, strengthening and development of these institutions is the general strategy of the democratic majority in Belarusian society today. We face the important task of organizing direct elections to the Coordination Council, which could take place between May and September 2024. At the same time, a number of new institutions with both socio-political, civic and human rights orientation have emerged in recent years. Among them we can single out the Office of Svietlana Tsikhanovskaya, NAM, organizations of former law enforcers of Belarus - Belpol and Baypol, workers' movement - Rabochy Rukh, Cyberpartisans and others. Due to the impossibility to carry out professional activities on the territory of Belarus, a wide network of independent media has been created abroad, among which it is important to mention Belsat, Euroradio, Radio Racja, Nasha Niva, Malanka TV and others. Belarusan bloggers and relevant channels operate from abroad. The non-governmental sector of Belarus in connection with relocation is also represented abroad, however, as well as the above-mentioned institutions, it continues to interact through confidential channels with Belarusians living inside the country. Here we can note the presence of dozens, if not hundreds, of non-governmental organizations. Thus, we have a unique situation of actual preservation of institutions, non-governmental organizations, political structures and independent media, which work daily to change the situation in Belarus. We are self-critical about our performance, but at the same time, the fact that we have managed to maintain consolidation and a certain degree of efficiency over three and a half years is important. Strategy towards Belarus Unfortunately, we have to admit that since 2020 there has been no clear understandable strategy of actions aimed at changing the situation in Belarus. During this time Lukashenko: Unfolded the most large-scale mass repressions against the Belarusian society for the last 50 years of European history. Crimes are committed in Belarus, which according to official documents of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the European Parliament and the UN Human Rights Council are recognised as crimes against humanity. Organized the hijacking of a Ryanair civilian aircraft, thereby actually committed an act of terrorism. Organized an undeclared war with the use of illegal migrants against Belarus' neighboring states that are EU members. Provided the territory of Belarus for aggression against Ukraine. Has become Russia's main ally in military-industrial and trade and economic cooperation. Neither North Korea, nor Venezuela, nor any other countries can match the scale of tactical and strategic assistance provided by Lukashenko in Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Achieved the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. We can predict that the next step will be the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. As of today, we must state that the only country that has a clear systematic strategy of actions in relation to Belarus is the Russian Federation, which has set as its strategic goal the incorporation of the territory of Belarus into the Russian Federation. The so-called Union State of Belarus and Russia is used for this purpose. If we see today the actions of Russia aimed at the military occupation of Ukraine, then at the same time we must state that Russia carries out actions of non-military occupation of Belarus. What is the strategy of the Russian Federation? Their strategy is to provide informational, ideological, cultural influence on the Belarusian society. At the same time, they marginalize Belarusian culture, Belarusian language in Belarus, strengthen the perception inside the country, among Belarusians, of unity with Russian society, rewrite history, etc. This is militarisation of society, identification of the European Union, the United States of America, and democratic values in general as common enemies. For this purpose, both informational propaganda tools and creation of pro-Russian non-governmental organizations on the territory of Belarus, bribery, corruption of state officials, introduction of persons connected with Russian special services into the system of national defense and security are used. An important thesis that I would like to voice. We are fully aware that the responsibility for the future of Belarus as an independent, sovereign state, first of all, lies with the Belarusian people. And our goal is not to shift this responsibility to our partners, who are assisting us in this difficult period of struggle for our sovereignty and independence. However, without international support, without a mutual strategy of actions, the achievement of our goal will be longer in time and less realistic. I don’t think that we have too high expectations of possible action from our partners. Rather, we are often faced with an underestimated desire to use the available arsenal to prosecute and hold the Lukashenko regime accountable for all the violations of international law and human rights that I have mentioned. Main challenge and threats Today Belarus is in the geopolitical context of the war initiated by Russia against Ukraine. It should be understood that territorially Belarus is surrounded by Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia and is in the center of geopolitical events. The “Belarus balcony” is of strategic importance for the interests of the Russian Federation and will certainly be further used by Russia in continuing the war against Ukraine and destabilizing the situation in the neighboring countries of Belarus. Is it possible to reach an agreement with Lukashenko? This is an unrealistic scenario. By his mentality, Lukashenko is a man connected with the Russian world and devoted to the interests of the Russian Federation. At the same time, he is a man who would like to retain a certain control over the territory of Belarus. And he will balance his relations with Putin only in the context related to obtaining more economic resources to preserve his power, gradually giving up a part of sovereignty in favor of the Russian Federation. Any steps in the direction of the West can mean only one thing - the desire to receive even more funds for loyalty to the Kremlin. The key factor that can change the situation in Belarus is the Belarusian people, who need to regain their subjectivity in terms of influence on the internal and external policy of Belarus. The key factor and strategy of the democratic forces of Belarus is to support Ukraine and the victory of Ukraine over Russia as an aggressor country. Russia is currently pursuing a strategy aimed at demotivating Western partners to provide financial, economic and other assistance to Ukraine. In my opinion, the West can apply a similar, somewhat mirror-like strategy towards Russia. The most powerful sanctions against Russia are the elimination of Lukashenko's regime in Belarus. Even destabilization of his regime will force Russia to invest more in supporting Lukashenko. In 2020, the Belarusian people took to the streets in protest and declared their desire to live in a democratic state, in a common European home. At that time, we noted the highest possible degree of motivation of Belarusians to fight for their rights, for the European perspective. For almost four years, the Belarusian people have been subjected to the most large-scale repressions, which led to human casualties and to the deportation of a huge number of Belarusians. And at the same time, there is a perception in the Belarusian society that the partners are not interested in supporting the Belarusian people. I do not say this on my own behalf, I bring this thesis based on the information that we receive from inside Belarus, from the active part of the Belarusian society. Belarusians often feel frustration because in response to the struggle for their freedom, for democracy, for supporting Ukraine, Belarusians have lost their lives. Many Belarusians have been killed, have been repressed, and are in prisons on sentences of more than 20 years of imprisonment. But there is no appropriate reaction against those persons who are guilty of committing these crimes. Therefore, it seems crucial to implement the following strategy of actions and concrete steps: First. It is important for us to identify among the member states of the European Union the partner countries at the level of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Ministries of Justice, which would be ready together with us to carry out targeted legal actions to transfer the materials on crimes against humanity for consideration in the International Criminal Court in the context of deportation of at least 100 thousand Belarusians to the territory of the member states of the European Union. According to the lawyers of the National Anti-Crisis Management, this approach is the most realistic in terms of raising the question of bringing Lukashenko to justice for the international crimes committed. This is an instrument of justice, influence on the presidential election, on the split of elites in the future. Second. Ukraine's support in initiating an arrest warrant against Lukashenko for war crimes related to the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to the territory of Belarus and their indoctrination is important to us. According to the National Anti-Crisis Management, our team, at least 3,000 Ukrainian children from 20 settlements were taken to the territory of Belarus between September 2022 and May 2023. We submitted two communications to the ICC in The Hague. The question of Lukashenko's responsibility for the war is of strategic importance. For today Lukashenko sells the thesis about his non-involvement in the aggression to the Belarusian society. And this is another strategic informational mistake. The international attention is not focused on Lukashenko's responsibility for the aggression, for the victims that the Ukrainian people bear. This leads to the perception among Belarusians that Lukashenka is not guilty of anything, is not involved in the aggression, and, on the contrary, does everything to establish peace. The third element of the strategy. We need a program of support for independent media. Recently, we have noted a decrease in financial support for the independent media in Belarus. The fourth element of the strategy is to support the national identity of Belarusians, to support Belarusian culture in emigration, to create centers of Belarusian culture and education - the Belarusian National University, the National Theatre, other cultural institutions for preserving the national culture, its subsequent relocation to Belarus, and through these institutions to spread informational and cultural influence on Belarusian society inside the country. The fifth element of the strategy. The Lukashenko regime has taken actions aimed at reducing the possibilities of the consular services of the European Union on the territory of Belarus; we are fully aware of this. At the same time, it seems important to jointly work out approaches that would allow more opportunities for Belarusians to visit the European Union, to obtain multiple-entry and Schengen visas. Greater openness of the European Union for the Belarusian society will contribute to the formation of a positive image of the EU among Belarusans. The sixth factor of the strategy is the key one - the Belarusian people. Closure of border crossings We are fully aware of the importance of ensuring the national security of Belarus’ neighboring states and understand the logic aimed at increasing control over Belarusian citizens entering the territory of these countries. At the same time, Belarusians perceive these actions as directed against them, not against Lukashenko's regime. Since, as I said above, there is no international responsibility, no large-scale sanctions are imposed, and this leads to the perception of Belarusians that it is the citizens of Belarus, and not the dictator, who are responsible for what happens in the country. As a politician, I absolutely support all the actions of our partners aimed at strengthening national security and defense. The acquisition of F-16 aircrafts, leopards and other military weapons is certainly necessary and important. At the same time, I think it is important for us to realize that the main weapon is the people. The Belarusian people, who in 2020 opposed the dictator, who in 2022 opposed aggression against Ukraine. The Belarusian people, who are subjected to repressions on a daily basis, are our main weapon in the situation if the Putin regime and Lukashenko decide to reuse the territory of Belarus for aggression against Ukraine or one of the EU member states. And motivation is very important here. I think none of us would like to see a Belarusian soldier on the border with the European Union in a few years, who is ready to enter the territory of the EU. Therefore, purposeful actions to support Belarusians, exactly actions, are very important today. I thank sincerely all our partners, the foreign ministries of the EU member states for their principled position in supporting our struggle for freedom. The Eastern Partnership is an initiative that undoubtedly contributes to stimulating the European choice of Belarusians. But in order to bring this choice closer, it is very important for us to motivate Belarusians. The actions I mentioned above are only a part of a possible strategy. For us, of course, it would be a very serious step if the democratic forces of Belarus were given a place in the Eastern Partnership. It is difficult, but it is a very important political decision. We are ready to take this place, we are ready to intensify our cooperation within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. It is also important for us to feel and understand that without civil society and democratic forces of Belarus today the issues of the future of Belarus cannot be solved. We're stronger together.

Pavel Latushka: Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, Head of the National Anti-Crisis Management, Ambassador The regime of Lukashenko places significant emphasis on the ideological indoctrination of children, both in Belarus and Ukraine. Since the initiation of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, the NAM team has been diligently gathering evidence indicating that Lukashenko and his accomplices have committed a war crime by illegally transporting Ukrainian children, including orphans, from Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russia to Belarus The NAM team has already obtained personal information regarding dozens of Ukrainian children who were unlawfully taken from Ukrainian territory. According to our data, over 3,000 Ukrainian children were taken from more than 20 occupied cities and towns in Ukraine and transported to Belarus. During the illegal transportation and residence of Ukrainian children in Belarus, the Lukashenko regime implemented a re-education program disguised as a so-called "rehabilitation program" at the Dubrava camp. This program involved interactions with representatives from the self-proclaimed "Union State," the Lukashenko regime, the Russian Orthodox Church, the "Night Valkyries" and "Night Wolves" motorcycle clubs, as well as members of the Belarusian National Youth Union and propagandists. Furthermore, based on photographs published by Lukashenko's propagandists, it is evident that the children are being taught basic weapon handling skills. The evidence collected indicates that the children were subjected to a program of activities that included elements of political re-education, particularly anti-Ukrainian, pro-Lukashenko, and pro-Kremlin ideologies. It is crucial that during the discussion on the report concerning the situation in Belarus by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the representative of Ukraine emphasized that "the deportation of children to Belarus constitutes a war crime." This discussion took place in Geneva a few days ago as part of a session of the UN Human Rights Council. NAM acknowledges the significance of the official positions expressed by Ukraine, other countries, and international organizations regarding the issue of the illegal transportation of Ukrainian children, as well as their indoctrination and re-education within the territory of Belarus. We will continue our efforts to collect evidence and subsequently submit it to the Office of the ICC Prosecutor and the Ukrainian authorities in order to hold Lukashenko accountable for the war crime he has committed.

Sectoral sanctions on Belshina products continue to apply The EU Court of Justice has lifted the blocking sanctions on Belshina OJSC, based on its decision. What does this mean and should we be concerned? “The removal of EU blocking sanctions from the company does not fundamentally change the overall sanctions mechanism regarding the Lukashenko regime. Despite the lifting of sanctions on the enterprise itself, Belshina OJSC's products, particularly rubber tires (HS code 4011), remain subject to EU sectoral sanctions,” Pavel Latushka stated. In other words, the sanctions have been removed from the company as an entity, but not from its products. Belshina OJSC is still under sanctions from the USA, Japan, Switzerland, and Ukraine. It is definitely surprising that the EU Council did not provide the Court of Justice with “sufficient concrete evidence to support the allegation that the company dismissed employees who participated in protests and strikes following the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus”. However, the court decision itself does not deny the occurrence of repression, contrary to how some sources interpret it. Unfortunately, the defendant (EU Council) simply couldn't provide evidence capable of confirming the content of press articles regarding employee dismissals at Belshina OJSC or refute the information presented in the dismissal acts by the company's management.

We express our gratitude to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) for its attention to the situation in Belarus and its significant efforts in documenting the crimes committed by the Lukashenko regime against civilians. It is of utmost importance that acts of violence, including persecution, are increasingly referred to by their proper name and recognized as crimes against humanity. NAM has thoroughly reviewed the latest report from OHCHR and believes that certain crucial crimes committed by the regime have not received sufficient attention. Failure to acknowledge these crimes may result in victims being denied fair justice. It is important to note that a significant number of Belarusians have been forced to flee the country due to fear of reprisals based on political persecution. The scale of the situation and the number of Belarusians who have been compelled to leave their country are critical matters that are not adequately addressed in the OHCHR report. Following the precedent set by the International Criminal Court (ICC), the circumstances created by the regime that force citizens to leave Belarus could be classified as crimes against humanity in the form of deportation. It appears that the Office of the  ICC Prosecutor could potentially establish jurisdiction to investigate a situation involving the possible commission of a crime against humanity, specifically the deportation of the civilian population of Belarus to countries that are signatories to the Rome Statute. NAM expresses concerns that the failure to mention this violation may contribute to the denial of this phenomenon as a crime against humanity. Comprehensive documentation of the regime's crimes is necessary to facilitate the possibility of holding the perpetrators accountable. Therefore, we will continue to collect and analyze information regarding the atrocities committed by Lukashenko and his accomplices.

The illegal movement of Ukrainian children to Belarus has become the focal point of discussion at the UN Human Rights Council "The deportation of children to Belarus is a war crime," stated the representative of Ukraine during a hearing on the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights titled "The situation of human rights in Belarus in the run-up to and after the 2020 presidential elections." The report is currently under discussion in Geneva as part of a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council. In the latter part of last year, NAM actively took steps to collect and transmit information regarding Lukashenko's crimes to the Ukrainian authorities. Additionally, this information was communicated to partner countries and international organizations through bilateral meetings, multilateral forums, and presentations in the Council of Europe, the European Parliament, as well as the OSCE and the UN. The issue of the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus was also raised by representatives from Poland, Bulgaria, Montenegro, and several other countries. Human Rights Watch, a human rights organization, also highlighted that open-source data suggests the involvement of Belarusian authorities in the illegal transfer of 2,000 children to Belarus. NAM emphasizes the significance of presenting the official stance of Ukraine, partner countries, and international organizations regarding the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children, their indoctrination, and re-education within the territory of Belarus. In June and November 2023, NAM submitted two sets of communications to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, providing evidence of Lukashenko's and his accomplices' involvement in this war crime. NAM continues to work diligently in collecting evidence and subsequently sharing it with the ICC, Ukrainian authorities, and partner countries with the aim of bringing Lukashenko to justice for the committed war crime.

For over three years, the EU, the US, and other democracies have imposed sanctions on the dictatorial regime of Lukashenko, which consistently violates international law. There are numerous myths and speculations surrounding the topic of sanctions. Only a few are genuinely trying to assess their true impact on the economy, regime, and society, while also proposing measures for their further enhancement. You can familiarize yourself with the situation concerning sanctions in the analytical review of the National Anti-Crisis Management titled "Sanctions Pressure on the Lukashenko Regime (2020-2023)." This report aims to provide answers to several questions regarding the extent of the imposed measures, the effectiveness of sanctions in specific economic sectors, and measures that could enhance the existing and ongoing sanctions restrictions.